by Craig Oliver
All of them are engaged and want to listen. But this is the last time I will see Frances before the night. This is a frightening prospect – I fear she really could blow up. Lucy Thomas has been playing Andrea Leadsom and points out how easy her case is, beginning each answer with, ‘As a mother …,’ repeatedly asserting, ‘We have a bright future ahead as the fifth largest economy …,’ and the answer to any problem being, ‘Vote Leave, take back control.’ It’s rubbish, of course – but effective rubbish. By contrast, our answers involve patient explanation.
I take Ruth and Sadiq to one side and tell them that a lot of the weight of this will rest on them. They need to write down their answers, learn them and attack.
I get on a roasting Tube to Wembley to go and see the set with the Stronger In team, Ruth and Frances.
We’re taken in through a back route, walking down long, narrow windowless corridors with exposed wires. It reminds me of the bowels of a ship. Ruth sees it as ‘the kind of place the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles would hang out.’
We’re shown the vast stage. Frances looks a little spooked.
Everyone is hot and irritable – wondering if we are strapped to a rocket that could land anywhere. I’m dehydrated, needing some water, but there’s none around. There’s a debate about whether we go against the blue or the yellow backdrop. Then there’s the fact no one seems to have settled on the precise format, despite the negotiations having gone on forever.
Graeme Wilson calls to tell me the piece on the Mini on the BBC worked well, but it was preceded by a piece about how Nigel Farage was claiming the PM and George were exploiting Jo Cox’s murder for political ends. He has no evidence, so why is it worthy of such a prominent position?
Suddenly I am not feeling hugely confident as I head for home.
Chapter 31
It’s Supposed to be About Europe
WE PICK UP that Steve Hilton is briefing that he attended a meeting in 2012 where civil servants told the PM he had zero chance of hitting the tens of thousands immigration target.
He’s doing a piece for the Mail. An attempt to get the PM to engage is met with, ‘Don’t engage.’ His strategy is not making them feel they’ve got a rise out of us. The problem is that we don’t have an answer when others approach. I suggest we at least say, ‘We don’t recognise his version of events.’
DC fires back, ‘Yes, good. He’s so desperate for Brexit, he will say anything.’
My main question is: why is Steve Hilton being given so much attention? Someone the public have barely heard of claiming something for which he offers no evidence.
I’m only half amazed when I hear the BBC is actually leading on this. In their news values, Steve Hilton beats the billionaire investor George Soros and a bunch of supermarket chiefs, who say prices will rise if we leave the EU. I dig out the papers from that meeting. The civil service were in fact advising it was entirely possible to reach an immigration target of the tens of thousands.
The newspapers are the usual horror show, with the odd delight. A couple of dozen French companies have taken out full-page ads asking the UK to Remain in the EU. There’s also a full-page ad from Richard Branson backing us.
Set against that is the Telegraph coming out for Brexit. I was told that they were going to do it last night, but not to worry, it wouldn’t be the splash. The top third of the front page has written in red ink: ‘If the choice is between hope and fear, we choose hope.’
It’s an absurd device. Set up a false choice and then go with the one that suits you. I send a text to the editor saying, ‘Which would you go for if it was a choice between fantasy and reality?’
For weeks we’ve had in our grid the Four PMs moment. It’s been sunk by Gordon Brown. So it has now been replaced with DC coming out into Downing Street to give a speech. It should be a straightforward affair, which I have insisted should be no more than six minutes. What is before us is a portentous speech that spends forever banging on about security and our role in the world. I feel frustrated – where is our core message? Where is the clip we want on the news? DC asks what I want. I reel off the core message, ‘There’s nothing more positive than having a strong economy with all the jobs and opportunities that come with it. Don’t risk it by leaving the EU, because there’s no turning back. Vote Remain.’
I go on to say, ‘You need to tell them you are going to tell them it. Tell them it. Tell them you’ve told them it.’
Ameet starts getting restless in his chair and starts making irritable points about how we need to build an argument before we get to that point. Lots of people back him up. I snap, ‘I’m sorry. This is not going to be watched by millions of people. The best we can hope for is a couple of clips on the news and for some people to watch the first fifteen seconds on social media. All this portentousness is hopeless. We know the security argument doesn’t work – and yet it’s the first half of the speech.’
DC says I am right. I leave the room to take a call. It’s obvious when I come back in that they have been talking about me being a bit intense. I pride myself on being calm, but I’m exhausted and fed up. I feel bad.
Next up we have three fifteen-minute newspaper interviews. First in are Lionel Barber and George Parker from the Financial Times. Lionel does the whole interview. He sits on the edge of the Chancellor’s chair and asks about the PM’s future. He appears to be conducting the whole thing like a chat-show host, looking at me with a smile occasionally to see if I have clocked what he’s doing.
Anushka Asthana and Heather Stewart come in from the Guardian – and ask all about what country we want to be.
Peter Dominiczak comes from the Telegraph – for him it’s all about, ‘Haven’t you effectively written off all our readers as small-minded?’ The answer is we respect them, but want them to know why we worry.
I race over to North House for debate prep. As I do, I look at the daily tracker:
Headline voting intention: Remain 53.7%, Leave 46.3%. Remain lead: 7.4%.
Underlying attitudes clearly moving towards Remain over the last few days. The moves on ‘irresponsible’ and ‘scaremongering’ are significant – the biggest in these areas in 54 days of polling. It’s believed they are clear evidence that Jo Cox’s murder has made an impact.
I find Sadiq Khan and Ruth Davidson ready to go for it.
We patiently take them through what they should say and when – furnishing them with a series of quotes and scripts to deliver in various circumstances.
My big point to them is: these people are literally making it up; you need to be angry about that, because people’s jobs and rights are at stake. You need to challenge them on everything – fight back on everything. Ask them difficult questions.
At one point Sadiq Khan brings out a Leave leaflet that suggests Syria and Iraq will also be joining the EU. It’s an outrage, and he ends his point by saying, ‘I’m beginning to think you’ve all got something against brown people.’
I know Ruth will be good and I think Sadiq will be. I am extremely nervous about Frances not being here. I take Will to one side and say we must get through to her some more suggested lines.
It’s time to get to Wembley. It’s hot and sweaty on the Tube. We arrive and walk to a side street where our bus is parked. It’s an odd moment watching it slowly fill with our strange bedfellows united in a common purpose: Ruth, Sadiq, Sarah Wollaston, Tim Farron, Justin King … it’s a surreal day trip to who knows where.
It seems to take an eternity to drive the few streets to Wembley Arena. I send some encouraging news through to the PM and George:
The PM’s personal texts and calls to David Beckham have worked and he’s come out for Remain. Michael Gove responded by saying John Barnes supported Leave. In fact it isn’t true and Barnes has done an angry interview condemning them for their immigration frenzy.
Leave has accepted a £600k donation from a former member of the BNP.
Brendan Cox, Jo’s husband, has done an interview.
Some polls
coming out tonight put us ahead and there’s this rather weird and rather specific ‘Bing Predicts’ note Andrew Cooper has forwarded me: 57.62% to Remain and 42.38% to Leave.
George calls me – he wants me to ram the BNP donation down their throat, saying in politics you should always pay if you accept questionable money.
He is in a thoughtful mood – believing this would not have been close were it not for Boris’s popularity and Gove’s ability to influence News UK and Associated Newspapers.
We arrive at the venue. There is a crowd of people trying to get in. A helicopter buzzes overhead. We line our people up to get off the bus and be greeted. After a few seconds, I walk in and I sidestep a reporter hoping to doorstep me. A few people text to say they saw it on TV.
We are taken straight to the stage for checks and meet Frances O’Grady there. There’s a bit of cheering and booing from the people already seated. It sounds like it could be a bit of a rabble. Robbie Gibb, the editor of all BBC TV’s political programmes, is running around saying they will be told to be calm.
I step down off the stage to take a call from DC. He’s just done an interview with a local BBC station. ‘Yet again, it was all about immigration. I wanted to tell them, “This is not the immigration referendum. It’s supposed to be about Europe.”’
Our debaters retire to their dressing rooms. I am asked if I’d like to take part in the coin toss for who opens the debate and who closes it.
It’s weird running into people like Paul Stephenson and Will Walden – special advisers who have joined the other side. We’re friendly and shake hands and chat amicably enough.
We are marched into a room for the coin toss. I make a joke about Robbie doing it, saying I always believed he was a great tosser. Leave say they’d be happy to forfeit the coin toss and let us choose. I say we should just go ahead and they should call. They call ‘heads’ and choose to go first. That’s fine, because I’m happy it means we have the final word.
I’m taken to a large room that is filling up with various people associated with our team. I chat to Liz Truss and Amber and also Labour figures like Chuka Umunna and Chris Bryant.
It’s all broken up by calls with Simon Case and the Palace. It sounds like the press want to leap on a story about the Queen allegedly asking dinner guests to give her three good reasons to stay in the EU. I get through to the duty press officer at the Palace, who doesn’t seem alive to the danger. Simon Case is on to the Private Secretary. I can feel this one slipping away, just as ‘The Queen Backs Brexit’ did – once it’s out the door, it’s out the door and trying to put it back afterwards is no use.
I sit on the edge of a sofa next to Chris Bryant, dozens of Remain people surrounding us.
The team comes out swinging on the economy – pressing them on the lies of their campaign. The debate is absurdly partisan and it’s evident that anything anyone says will be applauded from the off.
Boris and his team seem lacklustre. Ruth, Sadiq and Frances are passionate and energised. They nail them on their lack of plan. Come the immigration question, I am nervous. But by some miracle we win and Frances O’Grady, who has been nervous until now, is a star, landing a blow by asking if they want to cut immigration or not? Amazingly, they fail to give an answer. All of them look hypocritically squeamish on the issue. Twitter thinks Ruth is the star – summing up Boris’s attitude as ‘Just not good enough’.
Ryan, Lucy and I look at each other across the room and are amazed that all the lines we gave them are landing with passion and force.
Towards the end, Chuka wants briefing for the spin room afterwards. Will Straw and I tell him he should hammer: they have no plan on the economy and tonight it was clear they have no plan on immigration.
I go back to the sofa to watch the end. For some reason Ruth is asked to give our closing statement first. This was not what was agreed at the coin toss.
Boris goes last. He gives a speech that concludes that we should declare 23rd June Independence Day. He gets a standing ovation from his supporters.
I head to the corridor where the dressing rooms are to go and tell the team how great they were.
The first person who piles down it is Boris. I say hello and he squeezes past me saying, ‘Independence day, Craig!’ He’s definitely on a high. We go into Sadiq’s dressing room and I give Ruth and Frances a hug. I tell them they were brilliant and they should feel proud that they won it. Proud that such different people came together for something we believe in. Proud that the emptiness of Leave’s promises were exposed. We talk for a while, but there isn’t much more to say.
In the spin room the hacks are in agreement – they believe we won.
DC calls to say how well it clipped on the news. I don’t think we changed many votes, but our campaign feels buoyant at the moment – and Leave look confused and on the back foot.
The morning of Wednesday 22 June brings debate analysis. The only soundbites used are on immigration. I can see why the PM feels worn down by it.
But most of the reviews are good.
I look through the papers and think Gove has totally lost the plot. He doubles down on his claim that we’ve had enough of experts with a comment that the economists warning of the dangers of Brexit are like the Nazi propagandists who condemned Einstein. Is he losing it?
The PM has had enough and attacks Gove on the record:
To hear the Leave campaign comparing independent experts and economists to Nazi sympathisers – I think they have rather lost it.
These people are independent – economists who have won Nobel prizes, business leaders responsible for creating thousands of jobs, institutions that were set up after the war to try to provide independent advice. It is right to listen.
Late in the day Gove gives an immaculately constructed and delivered apology. Surely he must be wondering how he got to this place – seen as having gone way beyond the pale by those he supported as modern, compassionate Conservatives, while ranting about Nazis and attempting to justify the reactionary campaign he leads.
I spend the morning at Stronger In, working through how we’re going to handle the voices speaking for us as the polls close and the results come in. Tony Blair comes in to address the office, introduced by Will as ‘the most electorally successful person alive’.
Blair speaks a lot of sense: ‘We have come together for a set of values that go to the core of what this country should be.’
He tells us he is sure we are going to be successful, before going on to put his finger on one of the problems of this campaign, ‘The more outrageous people are prepared to be, the more they can catch an agenda.’
In the Q&A he says, ‘There are only so many times you can put an issue as weighty as this before the British people.’
‘You’re telling me!’ I say in a stage whisper and he laughs. I have a good chat with him at the end and he tells me he thinks the PM has led this well. What he doesn’t say, but he has remarked upon before, is that there is an increasing clash in this country that has gone beyond left and right, and is now about open and closed – those who see our future as one of constructive engagement with a big, complex world, and those who want to seal themselves off and walk away.
Our tracker poll comes through as he leaves, putting us on 54.3 and them 45.7.
There’s another conversation around the desk about what we say when this is done. Ryan points out that forty-six per cent of people who want to leave the EU believe this referendum will be rigged. How do you find a way to speak to them? Many others responded to polls saying they trust no one. How do political campaigns engage with people who have got to that stage – other than what Leave has done: telling them they are right, there is a conspiracy and we are all being lied to by a powerful elite, who don’t have their interests at heart?
I dutifully hang about into the evening, watching all the bulletins and filling the PM in on how his whistle-stop tour of the country is going.
Later on, there’s a call from Labour’s Yvette
Cooper – she’s asking me to brief her for the last debate. I’m happy to help. The truth is I feel I have a lot more in common with her at this moment than half the people in my own party.
I walk out into the late evening sunshine. It feels balmy and cosmopolitan, as if I shouldn’t have a care in the world.
I finally think we’ve done it. We are going to win.
It will feel like the greatest relief of my life if I am right.
Chapter 32
Referendum Day
THURSDAY 23 JUNE: Referendum Day. I feel a real sense of calm. I don’t know why, but something tells me we are going to be OK. Everyone, everything points to us winning.
I manage to get a lie-in, which means up by 7 a.m. My mind just won’t let me go beyond that.
Westminster is throbbing. There are Stronger In people everywhere handing out stickers that are going like hotcakes. I’m not foolish enough to think this is exactly representative of the country.
The morning meeting starts at 9 a.m.
Stephen Gilbert tells us turnout has been high. The main concern is that the Remain strongholds will be indifferent, so all energies are going into getting out our voters. We have a brief chat about what the PM should say tomorrow. My view is that the PM should declare, ‘At the general election, I spoke of one nation. Today I want to do all I can to ensure one party.’ DC likes this and wants to work it in.
We go through who should do the media from when the polls are closed. I have a stock of loyal Cabinet ministers lined up, including Nicky Morgan, Amber Rudd, Liz Truss, Stephen Crabb and Ruth Davidson. Nicky texts me:
Craig – you may already know this, but Labour’s line tonight will be that in the course of this campaign the Tory party has imposed its own divisions on the rest of the country, leading to further intolerance, hatred etc. – so normal service resumes after 10 p.m. and important we get tone right. Nicky.
The meeting thins right down to the PM, George, Ed, Kate, me, and Oliver Letwin, the PM’s senior policy adviser in the Cabinet Office. DC wants to talk through the options if we lose: