Expert Political Judgment

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Expert Political Judgment Page 48

by Philip E. Tetlock


  Lewinsky, Monica, 131, 215

  Lewis, D., 18n. 33

  Liberal Democratic Party (LDP / Japan), 110, 111, 267

  liberals, xiv, xiv n. 7, xv, xv n. 12, 150–51, 152, 158–59, 257

  Lithuania, 95

  logical-coherence, 190, 190n. 1; and process indicators of good judgment, 301–2; test, 122–23

  Lord, C., 128n. 8

  Lynch, Peter, 33

  Macey, David, 225

  Machiavelli, 26

  MacIntyre, A., 3n. 4

  macroeconomic policies, in Latin America, 114–15

  Malkiel, Burton, 33

  Mandela, Nelson, 109

  marketplace of ideas metaphor, 231–33, 231n. 12

  Markman, K., 199n. 15

  Matlock, J., 6n. 8

  “matrioshka nationalisms,” 71

  May, E., 38n. 33, 143n. 23

  Mbeki, Thabo, 225

  McCloskey, D., 30–31, 32

  McCullough, D., 5n. 6

  McGuire, William, 138n. 16, 182–83n. 16

  Medawar, P., xii n. 1

  Meehl, P., 54n. 48

  meliorism, 19, 20, 60, 67, 76; hypotheses of, 20–21; skeptical, 21, 64–66

  meta-cognition (and the art of self-overhearing), 23, 213–15

  Mexico, 114, 115

  Mill, John Stuart, 231–32

  misses, 11. See also value adjustments (of probability scores)

  moderation-extremism, 69, 72–73; foxes’ tendency to moderation, and hedgehogs to extremism, 79–81, 84–86, 88. See also ideologue hypothesis

  modus tollens, 180

  Mokr, Joel, 29n. 12, 31

  Moldova, 92

  Morris, M., 82n. 14, 160n. 16

  Moynihan, Daniel, 134

  multi-method convergence, 7n. 11, 7–8, 67–68, 75n. 6, 84–86, 117–19, 123n. 2, 128–29, 138–39, 141–42, 160n. 16, 161–63, 190–91, 195–96, 199, 204n. 16, 235n. 17

  multiplicative rule, 302; violations of, 305

  Murphy, A. H., 13n. 20, 47n. 45, 274n. 1

  Nagel, R., 32n. 24

  narratives. See history, and narrative

  NASDAQ, 103, 130, 248

  National Research Council, xii, xiv National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), 34–35

  need for closure, 75n. 6, 241. See also cognitive style; hedgehog/fox dimension; Kruglanski, A.

  neopositivists, 226, 230; hardline, 222, 224–25, 227–28; moderate, 222, 223, 225, 228–29

  Neustadt, Richard, 38n. 33, 143

  “New Economy” firms, 248

  Nietzsche, Friedrich, 184–85n. 18

  Nigeria, 90, 111–12, 112–13n. 39

  Nisbett, R., 123n. 2, 128n. 9, 161n. 2

  Nixon, Richard, 215

  Normalized Discrimination Index (NDI), 278

  North, D., 29n. 10

  North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 89

  North Korea, 96–97, 175–76, 203–4

  Novick, P., 216n. 1

  Nye, J., xii n. 2

  objectivity, 216–18, 229; observers, 234–35; positivist proponents of, 217; relativist and postmodernist critiques, 3–4, 219–21

  Ogilvy, James, 192

  optimism-pessimism, 71–72. See also boomsters-doomsters

  Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), 29, 191–92

  overprediction. See false alarms

  Packenham, R., 106n. 33

  Pakistan, 90

  Parker, Geoffrey, 206

  Parti Québecois (PQ), 266

  path dependency, 27–30; and decreasing returns, 29–30; and increasing returns, 29

  Persian Gulf War I (1990–91), 113–14, 114n. 41, 130

  philosophy of science, 17, 23, 182; and “naïve falsification,” 180, 180n. 13; “post-positivist,” 180

  Pierson, P., 27n. 8

  Pipes, Richard, xv, 146n. 5

  Pitkin, H., 26n. 3

  pluralism, 226, 230

  Poland, 95–96

  policy controversies, and the quality of debate, 229–38

  “Polish Perons,” 95

  political experts, 65–66n. 50, 239–40

  political judgment, 3; quality of, 4–5, 8–9. See also political judgment, judgments of political judgment, judgments of, 6; adjustments to, 9; correspondence tests, 7; psychological approaches to, 7–8

  political prognostication: consumers of, 235; market for, 232–33; positivist critics of, 177

  politicization, 20n. 36; foxes’ greater resistance to, 103–6; use of turnabout thought experiments to diagnose, 158n. 14

  Polya’s urn, 27–28

  portfolio diversification, 192

  Posner, Richard, 232

  prediction, 19n. 34, 39, 218n. 2, 232; and explanation, 14; markets, 235n. 17, 237, 237n. 19; over- or underprediction, 101, 167, 167n. 7. See also experts/expertise, inaccurate predictions of

  presidential election forecasting, 133–34

  probability definitions, violations of, 305, 307–8

  probability scoring, 46–47, 165, 220; and catch-up, 59, 83, 179–80; components of, 275, 277–78. See also correspondence indicators of good judgment; probability scoring, adjustments to

  probability scoring, adjustments to, 283–84, 301; controversy adjustments, 9, 175–76, 295–96; difficulty adjustments, 9, 173–74, 174–75n. 10, 284–85, 287–88; fuzzy-set adjustments, 9, 176–77, 179, 181, 221, 222, 296–301, 310–11; probability-weighting adjustments, 169, 171, 171n. 8, 173, 293–95. See also value adjustments (of probability scores)

  probability theorists/probability theory, 16, 34–37, 193n. 10, 227

  prospect theory, 171n. 8, 173

  pseudo-diagnosticity, 123n. 2

  pseudoscientists, 223

  Putnam, R., 113n. 40

  Quebec, 17, 133, 266

  radical skepticism, 19–20, 19n. 35, 26–27, 51, 59–60, 144; core tenets of, 41–44, 49; methodological background, 44–49; ontological, 27–37; psychological, 37–41, 42; varieties of, 27

  Ragin, C., 176n. 11, 297n. 4

  randomness, 39–41

  rationality-of-leaders debates, 112–13

  Reagan, Ronald, 152; administration of, xiii, xiv. See also Star Wars initiative realists, 71. See also institutionalists reality checks, 249–50

  regime change, 174

  regional forecasting exercises, 20; participants and individual difference measures, 239–41; research procedures and materials, 241–44; scoring rules, 245–46

  regression analyses, 72n. 4

  regression effects, 61

  relativists/relativism, 3, 4, 8, 17, 218–19, 218–19n. 3, 224; extreme (unrelenting), 3n. 4, 4, 219–21, 223–24, 225–27; reasonable, 222–23, 228–29

  Renshon, S., 5n. 5, 6n. 9

  Republicans, 6, 10n. 15, 13, 15

  reputational bets, 125, 180; reactions to winning or losing, 125–29. See also Bayesian belief-updating exercises; belief system defenses

  retrodiction, 35–37

  Reza Pahlavi, 98

  rise of the West/failure of the Rest, 29

  Roberts, C., 226n. 6

  Roese, N., 146n. 3, 150n. 9

  Ross, L., 123n. 2, 128n. 8, 196n. 14

  Royal Dutch Shell, 191–92

  Rubin, Robert, 17

  Russell, Bertrand, 1

  Russia (post-communist), 92–93

  Safire, W., 2n. 1

  Sagan, S., 100n. 28

  Saudi Arabia, 98

  scenario consultants, 191–93, 191n. 5

  scenarios. See futures scenario experiments; scenario consultants

  Schell, J., xii n. 3

  Schwartz, P., 23n. 42, 192

  self-subversion, 144

  Sen, A., 15n. 24

  Serbia, 91, 92

  Shaw, George Bernard, 236

  Simon, Julian, 17

  Simonton, D., 107n. 34

  Singapore, 115

  skepticism, 21, 25. See also radical skepticism

  Soros, George, 26–27, 30, 33

  South Africa, 90, 105, 108–10, 133; demis
e of white-minority rule in, 151–52; perceptions of contingency in, 260

  South Korea, 115

  Soviet Union, xiv, 10, 42–43, 95, 97, 104, 116, 192; Communist Party of, 135, 151, 157; effect of Reagan’s arms buildup on, 152, 258; liberalization of, 107–8; perceptions of close calls in, 259–60; Soviet-American relationship, xiii, 158, 257–58. See also Russia (post-communist); Soviet Union, history of

  Soviet Union, history of, 150–51; competing schemas, 148; counterfactual probes, 148–49; findings, 149–50

  Stalin, Joseph, 26, 27, 150–51, 157, 158

  Star Wars initiative, 6

  statistics/statistical tests, 9; and the law of large numbers, 8n. 14

  Staw, B., 164n. 6

  Stewart, Potter, 3

  Stigler, S., 8n. 14

  stock market, unpredictability of, 33

  Streufert, S., 251n. 1

  sub-additivity, 208, 213, 214, 226, 227–28; greater susceptibility of foxes to, 197–200. See also additive rule; support theory; “unpacking” scenarios

  subjective probability forecasts, 12–13

  subjectivity, and historical assessments, 5

  Suedfeld, P., 21n. 38, 75n. 6, 251n. 1

  Suppe, F., 14n. 22, 180n. 13, 219n. 3

  support theory, 193–94, 193n. 10, 194n. 11

  Surowiecki, J., 179n. 12

  Swets, J., 11n. 17, 12n. 18

  Taiwan, 115, 116

  Tajikistan, 92

  Taylor, A.J.P., 144, 146n. 4

  Taylor, S., 37n. 30

  Tesser, A., 118n. 45, 138n. 18

  Tetlock, P. E.: close call defenses, xiv n. 9, 82n. 14; competing spins on cognitive styles, 21nn. 38 and 41, 75nn. 6 and 7, 119nn. 48, 49, and 50, 128n. 9, 143n. 22, 164nn. 1, 2, 3, and 4, 182n. 16, 231n. 13; counterfactuals and causality, 146n. 1, 150n. 9, 157n. 12; debiasing, 186n. 20, 194n. 13, 206n. 17, 218n. 2, 235n. 17; learning, 38n. 35, 162n. 20; politicized psychology, 20n. 36, 158n. 14; proximity to nuclear war, xii n. 2, xiv n. 8; taboo trade-offs, 12n. 18, 112n. 38; thought coding, 84n. 15, 251n. 1

  Thaler, Richard, 32, 235n. 17

  theory-driven thinking, 214–15

  “third-order” interaction (capturing when cognitive style effects are largest), 81

  thought coding, 250–52

  Thurow, Lester, 15

  Tierney, J., 17n. 30

  tipping-point models, 31

  Tolstoy, Leo, 26

  Toulmin, S., 14n. 22

  Truman, Harry, 5

  truth, 216–17; monopoly claims on, 231n. 11

  turnabout tests for double standards, 257; participants, 257; research procedures, 257–58

  turnabout thought experiments, 17, 18–19, 158

  Turner, H., 94n. 22

  Tversky, Amos, 40n. 41, 189, 193, 193n. 10, 194, 293n. 3, 303n. 5

  Tyler, T., 234n. 16

  Ukraine, 103–4

  underprediction. See misses; value adjustment (of probability scores)

  United States, 116, 117, 191. See also Soviet Union, Soviet-American relationship

  unmaking of the West experiment, 152–53, 209–11; research procedures for, 271–72

  unpacking of historical-counterfactuals experiments, 208–9, 267; and cognitive style, 268; participants, 268, 269; research procedures, 269–72

  unpacking of possible futures experiments, 265; of Canada, 265–66; of Japan, 266–67; participants and context, 265

  “unpacking” scenarios, 193–94, 197, 206, 208–11, 213. See also unpacking of historical-counterfactuals experiments; unpacking of possible futures experiments

  unpredictability, 40. See also indeterminacy; radical skepticism

  value adjustments (of probability scores), 9, 11, 57, 59, 166–69, 220–21, 288–89; differential-weighting method, 292–93; and the k method, 57, 288, 289–92; as response to the “I-made-the-right-mistake” defense, 135; value-neutral to value-laden conversion, 57n. 49

  value neutrality, impossibility of, 229–30

  value priorities, 220n. 4

  variability, 275. See also base rates; probability scoring, components of

  Vasquez, J., 155n. 10

  Vertzberger, Y., 4n. 5

  Vietnam War analogies. 38. See also analogical reasoning (from history)

  von Clausewitz, Carl, 33n. 26

  Waltz, K., 100n. 28

  war and peace, root causes of, 99–100. See also analogical reasoning (from history)

  Weber, S., 235n. 17

  “Weimar Russia,” 92

  Welch, D., 5n. 7

  Western Airlines flight 903 crash, probable causes of, 34–35

  White, R., xiii n. 5

  Wildavsky, A., 42n. 42

  Wilensky, H., 236n. 18

  Wilson, T., 162n. 22

  Winkler, R., 13n. 20, 47n. 45, 284n. 2

  Wolfers, J., 218n. 2

  World Bank, 114

  World War I, 153–54; outcome of, 154–55

  World War II, outcome of, 154–55

  Yates, F., 53n. 46

  Yergin, David, 29

  Yugoslavia, 90, 91, 92

  Zadeh, L., 176n. 11

  Zaller, J., 25n. 1

  Zitzewitz, E., 218n. 2

 

 

 


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