by Ravi Rikhye
Pay and Allowances$2.9-billion
Operations & Maintenance$1.8-billion
Equipment & Construction$1.5-billion
Unexplained$0.4-billion
This excludes defense items to be provided under a Chinese loan program, our estimate is $10-billion, of which the bulk will go for 8 conventional Chinese submarines ($6-billion). It is suggested that the VT-4 MBT, VN-1 8x8 wheeled APC, and SAMs (FM-90, HQ-17, and HQ-9) will also be provided.
Army gets about 48% of the formal budget.
To which add the following:
$1.6-billion pensions (from civilian budget)
$1.1-billion Coalition Support Funds US Fiscal 2015
$1.1-billion budgeted separately for CI ops against rogue Taliban
$0.3-billion “security-related´ assistance; sharp decline since $1.3-billion in 2010
$1.6-billion paid off-budget for weapons procurement from domestic production
$0.5-billion paramilitary (our estimate)
$0.1-billion military nuclear program (our estimate)
Total ~$6.3-billion
Grand total ~$13-billion (without China assistance, terms unknown)
7.2 Strategic Doctrine: Countering India’s Cold Start
India takes a minimum of 10 days to mobilize; Pakistan takes three days because its formations are closer to the border. After the 2001-2002 mobilization crisis (Operation Parakram), India drew up a new, unofficial doctrine called Cold Start. This envisaged India attacking with 8 large battle groups formed from troops already on the border, with minimum warning, with the objective of breaking through Pakistani defenses before they were fully mobilized. To counter, Pakistan would have to deploy its strike corps, leaving India’s three strike corps free to mobilize and exploit gaps made by the 8 battle groups. Pakistan would have nothing left in reserve to counter the Indian offensive.
India has not followed through with the necessary major corollary of its new doctrine, which is that the Indian battle groups must be fully mechanized for rapid breakthroughs. It has delayed expansion of its mechanized forces to the point some argue Cold Start cannot be executed till 2025.
To meet India’s Cold Start, Pakistan developed its own version of preemption, namely, an offensive-defense posture.
Further, Pakistan acted rapidly to start building its counter, which was to add division sized “Corps Reserves” to its four holding corps (V, XXXI, IV, and XXX). Each corps now has three armored/mechanized brigades for counter-penetration against India’s 8 advancing battle groups. Two of the four corps reserves are now divisions; the remain two will get division numbers. Next, it plans to add a third strike corps, giving it parity with India. The Pakistan strike corps are 2/3rds the size of the Indian (two divisions versus three), but Pakistan is working on mechanizing all divisions in its strike corps, whereas Indian strike corps have one armored, one partially mechanized, and one infantry divisions.
Pakistan has also threatened the use of tactical N-weapons against Indian spearheads. Though widely presumed to have such weapons, there is considerable doubt it possesses this capability. Even if it does, it remains to be understood how Pakistan can use tactical nuclear weapons on its own territory given the density of its population in most border areas.
7.3 National Command Authority (nuclear weapons)
Strategic Plans Division
Development Control Committee
Employment Control Committee
Army Strategic Force Command (status equal to corps, and the reason some sources say Pakistan has 10 corps) Estimated 7000 troops, increasing.
The Command is in the process of raising 20,000 troops for ground security of missile units and warheads. Many are formed into a light division, Troops appear to come from the Army’s infantry regimental centers but have their own uniform.
Strategic Force North (3+ missile groups) Sargodha
Strategic Force South (3+ missile groups) Quetta
In some open sources, SFN is reported as 21st Division and SFN South as 22nd Division
Groups have 18 launchers
1st Strategic Missile Group (Shaheen II/Haft IV)
2nd Strategic Missile Group (Haft III/Ghaznavi on 2006) (Sargodha)
3rd Strategic Missile Group (Khuzdar)
[The above groups likely are conventionally armed]
14th Strategic Missile Group (SFN)
23rd Missile Group (includes Babar battalion)
25th Missile Group (SFS)
26th Missile Group (Babur, as above)
28th Missile Group (SFN)
35th Missile Group (SFS)
40th Missile Group (SFS)
47th Missile Group (SFN)
A Babur battlefield support battalion has 4 batteries, each of six launchers. Each launcher has four missiles. Presumably, there are reloads. 23rd SMG has other missiles too.
Sources include own research, Gurmeet Kanwal,[158] and Prasun Sengupta.
The groups including security troops, perhaps one battalion each. These are raised and trained by the infantry regimental training centers but have their own numbers.
Hatf I 70-km
Hatf IA/B 100-km
Hatf II 180-km land-based; “Abdali”, 500-kg warhead
Hatf IIA 300-km land-based; also called “Abdali”
Hatf III 290-km land-based; Chinese M-11; “Ghaznavi”
Hatf IV 700-km land-based; Chinese M-9 “Shaheen I”
Hatf V 1,500-km IRBM; “Ghauri”
Haft VA 1,800-km IRBM; “Ghauri 2”
Haft VI 2,000-km; solid fuel; ?Chinese M-18; “Shaheen II”
Hatf VII 500-km cruise missile; “Babur”
Haft VIII 350-km air-launched cruise missile; “Raad”
Hatf IX 60-km, twin-launcher, alleged with a sub-KT warhead
Also, Ghauri 3; 3,000-km, which was stopped because – allegedly - Pakistan did not want to appear it was targeting Israel.
Hatf-I, Hatf-II, and Hatf-III are with the Pakistan Army’s two artillery divisions. Hatf-II has not, as far as we know, been fired after 2007 and may be under replacement. Hatf VII may be with the artillery divisions. Hatf VIII is with the Pakistan Air Force. Though media speculates the missile will be carried by the F-16, there is no a priori reason to assume this. All other missiles are with Strategic Force Command.
Numbers are speculative. Our best estimate, liable to revision at any time is:
Hatf-I through –III: 2 missile groups (36 launchers total, reloads available)
Hatf-IV through –VI: 3 missile groups (54 launchers)
Hatf-VII: 2 missile groups (including one forming)
Hatf-VIII: 20+ missiles
Hatf-IX: 1 missile group
3 commands (Northern, Central, Southern)
9 Corps HQ
1 area command (part of X Corps)
1 Special Operations Task Force HQ in the North West Frontier Province
1 separate territorial HQ in Cholistan area, formed from Special Operations School
3 logistic areas (phasing out in favor of admin commands)
7.4 Orbat
2 armored divisions
1st Armored Division (II Corps, Army Reserve South)
6th Armored Division (I Corps Army Reserve North)
4 mechanized divisions
25th Mechanized Division (Karachi, V Corps)
26th Mechanized Division (Bhawalpur, XXXI Corps)
?? Mechanized Division (IV Corps, not yet numbered, treat as three independent brigades)
?? Armored Division (XXX Corps, not yet numbered, treat as three independent brigades)
Divisions with an armored brigade included
16th Infantry Division (V Corps) Infantry A3 confirmation
17th Infantry Division (I Corps) Infantry A3 confirmation
18th Infantry Division (V Corps) Infantry A3 confirmation
37th Infantry Division (GHQ Reserve) Infantry A3 confirmation
40th Infantry Division (II Corps) A1 confirmation
13 infantry divisions
7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 14th, 15th, 19th, 23rd, 33rd, 35th, and 41st Divisions.
Two brigades of another infantry division have been raised as independent brigades, no confirmation of division HQ yet.
1 Special Forces Division (5th) Division HQ is administrative only.
2 artillery divisions (including 2nd)
2 anti-aircraft divisions (3rd and 4th, Karachi and Sargodha)
1 light division (34th, same as Special Security Division for CPEC)
1 engineer division (45th Rawalpindi, likely only an HQ for some independent engineer brigades)
10+ AD brigades
6-7 independent brigades (including one on UN service)
9 Corps artillery brigades
9 engineer brigades (this figure is approximate)
2 Special Forces brigades (part of 5th Division, which is sometimes referred to as an Airborne Division
7-10 battalions
3 independent companies
Signals
Anti-terror/hostage rescue
Army Reserves (Strike Corps)
Army Reserve North
Consists of HQ I Corps, 6th Armored and 17th Mechanized Divisions, 1 independent armored brigade. It is committed to the Chenab-Ravi Corridor.
Army Reserve South
Currently II Corps, with 1st Armored and 40th Mechanized Divisions, 1 independent armored brigade. Operates between Suliemanke and Ft. Abbas.
Army Reserve Center
Pakistan plans a new Army Reserve Center, but the plan has been held up for several years due to funding shortfalls. ARC will take over II Corps and AR South will cover Sind with a new armored and a new mechanized division.
Sometimes Pakistan XI Corps is referred to as Army Reserve Center. As an infantry formation, however, it is better suited for deployment to Kashmir or to reinforce XXX Corps without tying up I Strike Corps.
Each corps has an integral field artillery brigade. Most corps also have AD, signal, and engineer brigades assigned.
Counterinsurgency deployments: A historical example
This is notational, as the number of assigned units/formations vary according to operational needs. Mandeep Singh Bajwa sent this orbat for early-2011. Five division HQs assigned to countering the Taliban. Because the 17 brigades (with 72 infantry, armored, engineer, and artillery battalions) come from different divisions, the deployment is sometimes given as 7-8 divisions.
HQ XI Corps
7th Infantry Division (Datta Khel) South Waziristan
9th Infantry Division (Wana) North Waziristan
14th Infantry Division North Waziristan
HQ X Corps
23rd Infantry Division (Mingora) Swat
One infantry brigade from the division
Three independent brigades from IV and XXX Corps
37th Infantry Division (Buner)
Reserve
17th Infantry Division
7.5 Peacetime Deployments 2018
GHQ Reserve
37th Infantry Division (Kharian) (Switched cantonment with 6 Armd Div which is now at Gujranwala)
X Corps (HQ Rawalpindi) AOR West/North Kashmir
12th Infantry Division (6 brigades) (Murree)
19th Infantry Division (3 brigades; corps reserve) (Mangla)
23rd Infantry Division (5 brigades) (Jhelum)
34th Light Infantry Division (Rawalpindi) Special Security Division, but unclear
1 report of artillery division
Force Command Northern Areas (HQ Gilgit)
4-5 Infantry Brigades normal garrison
111th Independent Infantry Brigade (3 infantry battalions) Corps Reserve
1 Ceremonial Guard Battalion
XXX Corps (HQ Gujranwala) AOR Chenab River to Ravi River
8th Infantry Division (4 brigades) (Sialkot)
15th Infantry Division (4 brigades) (Sialkot)
Mechanized Division (Corps Reserve) (may be numbered as an armored division)
2 armored brigades (existing)
1 mechanized brigade (newly converted from infantry, used to be six battalions)
IV Corps (HQ Lahore) AOR Ravi River to Sutluj River
10th Infantry Division (Lahore)
11th Infantry Division (Lahore)
Mechanized Division (delayed, Corps Reserve; with existing independent brigades)
2 independent mechanized infantry brigades
1 independent armored brigade
1independent armored brigade
XXXI Corps (HQ Bhawalpur) AOR Sutluj River to Rahim Yar Khan
26th Mechanized Division (Corps Reserve) (Multan)
14th Infantry Division (Okara)
35th Infantry Division (Bhawalpur)
Corps independent armored brigade
V Corps (HQ Karachi) AOR Sindh
25th Mechanized Division (Corps Reserve) (Karachi)
18th Infantry Division (Hyderabad)
16th Infantry Division (Pano Aqil)
Artillery division (forming)
Independent infantry brigade (new, forming at Sukkar)
Independent infantry brigade (mechanized?)
2 independent armored brigades
XI Corps (Peshawar) AOR North West Frontier Province
Artillery division (forming)
7th Infantry Division (Peshawar)
9th Infantry Division (Kohat)
1 Special Operation Task Force (ad hoc division with existing units on rotation)
2 independent infantry brigades that will go under a new division HQ, which is delayed
XII Corps (Quetta) AOR Baluchistan
16th Infantry Division (Quetta) (Switched with 33 Div)
41st Infantry Division (Chaman)
2 Independent infantry brigades
I Corps (Mangla) (Army Reserve North)
6th Armored Division (Gujranwala)(Switched with 37 Div)
17th Infantry Division (Gujranwala)
1 independent armored brigade
2nd Artillery Division (Gujranwala)
II Corps (HQ Multan) (Army Reserve South)
1st Armored Division (Multan)
40th Infantry Division (Okara)
Artillery Division (Multan)
A new infantry division is under raising at Kharian, likely for X Corps, but appears much delayed.
7.6 Equipment
MBT 2800
Al Hyder to enter service (based on PRC MBT-3000 for export)
300 T-99
600 Al Khalid I/II (replacing T-59/T-85); based on PRC T-90
300 T-80 Ukraine
600 Al Zarar (upgraded T-59)
400 T-85 PRC
400 T-69 PRC
200 T-59 PRC
(M-48 has been finally withdrawn)
IFV
Hamza (procuring; number unknown)
~150 Al Fahd
APC 3600 (tracked)
2000 Al Talha (modified M-113)
1600 M-113A2/A3 (earlier M-113A1 upgrading)
~400 UR-16 wheeled with paramilitary forces
Al-Saad (M-113 with extra road wheel)
160 BTR-70 (UN peacekeeping)
Artillery Towed
Converting to all 155mm by 2019
120 M-198
28 203mm
150 155mm Pantir (Turkey)
1000 PRC 85mm/122mm/130mm; Russian 130mm
300 M-101
Artillery SP 600
90+ PRC 155mm on 6 x 6 wheeled chassis SH-1
343 M-109A5 (including 228 A2 upgrading to A5)
99 M-109L ex-Italy (2017-18), 39- and 52-calibre, likely upgrading)
40 M-110 (additional 20 may have been delivered)
40 Turkey WS1B MLRS (based on PRC WS1A) 80km
40 PRC A-100 MLRS (10 x 300mm rockets)
40+ KRL-21 rocket launchers (indigenous design, 122mm)
AD GUNS 1800
L-60/L-70 40mm
35mm twin
SAM (Army and Air Force)
SPAA, also shoulder-fired RB-70, ~900 units, remanufactured
&
nbsp; Mouz (Talha APC variant) SPAA 4 x Anza Mk I, II, III) plus 14.7mm HMG, also in shoulder-fired version, ~1000 units
10 Spada AD SAM Batteries (Battery = 4 launchers each with 6 missiles; ~750 Aspide including training rounds).
Likely 9 batteries x 4 launchers x 6 missiles medium range SAM
3 batteries x 4 launchers x 4 Chinese Crotale short range SAMs
Perhaps 20+ Air Defense Artillery regiments 40mm, and Chinese + German 35mm twin.
6 Crotale 4000 squadrons (Air Force) with total 24 firing units. (Though Pakistan has said the Spada 2000 will replace Crotale, the latter was upgraded as recently as 2007-2008. It seems unlikely the missile will be phased out as rapidly as stated.)
SAM-2 (China) unknown number of squadrons, possibly 2 with six launchers each. Might have been be replaced by Chinese HQ-12 (40-km) or HQ-18 (Chinese version of Russian SAM-12), both of which were under evaluation.
ATGM ~30,000+
TOW (estimated 600 launchers, 6000 rounds)
Ukraine Type (Estimated 500 launchers, 5000 rounds)
Milan
Indigenous design based on PRC Red Arrow 8, 23,000 missiles
Maaz (Talha APC variant) using local ATGM, 12 rounds
7.7 Special Forces
Special Service Group (Army) 8000 personnel