Avoiding Armageddon

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Avoiding Armageddon Page 24

by Bruce Riedel


  5. “A Mohammedan Conspiracy for the Sovereignty of India,” New York Times, September 13, 1857.

  6. Guy Gugliotta, New Estimate Raises Civil War Death Toll,” New York Times, April 2, 2012 (www.nytimes.com/2012/04/03/science/civil-war-toll-up-by-20-percent-in-new-estimate.html?pagewanted=all).

  7. William S. McFeeley, Grant (New York: Norton, 1974), pp. 472–73. John Russell Young, Around the World with General Grant (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2002) is an edited reissue of an account of the trip originally published in 1879 by a journalist who accompanied the Grants.

  8. See, for example, Prasannan Parthasarathi, Why Europe Grew Rich and Asia Did Not: Global Economic Divergence, 1600–1850 (Cambridge University Press, 2011).

  9. Ironically, the two fought on the same battlefield in South Africa, Churchill as a soldier and journalist, Gandhi as an ambulance driver, in the Boer War.

  10. Romain Hayes, Subhas Chandra Bose in Nazi Germany (Columbia University Press, 2011), pp. 89, 102, 111, 141.

  11. Dennis Kux, India and the United States: Estranged Democracies, 1941–1991 (Washington: National Defense University Press, 1992), p. 24.

  12. Bob Spitz, Dearie: The Remarkable Life of Julia Child (New York: Knopf, 2012).

  13. Kux, India and the United States.

  14. Madhusree Mukerjee, Churchill’s Secret War: The British Empire and the Ravaging of India during World War II (New York: Basic Books, 2010), and Arthur Herman, Gandhi and Churchill: The Epic Rivalry That Destroyed an Empire and Forged Our Age (New York: Bantam, 2008), are two excellent new studies of the partition issue. Both conclude that Churchill was a critical player in the creation of Pakistan. The definitive biography of Jinnah is Stanley Wolpert, Jinnah of Pakistan (Oxford University Press, 1985). Jaswant Singh’s Jinnah: India, Partition, Independence (New Delhi: Rupa, 2009) is a must-read for an Indian perspective.

  15. Arthur Bryant, Triumph in the West, 1939–1945: Based on the Diaries and Autobiographical Notes of Field Marshall the Viscount Alan Brooke (London: Collins, 1959), p. 158.

  16. Hayes, Subhas Chandra Bose in Nazi Germany, p. 133.

  17. Kux, India and the United States, p. 32.

  18. “Tata for Now,” The Economist, September 10, 2011, pp. 61–62.

  CHAPTER 3

  1. Farooq Naseem Bajwa, Pakistan and the West: The First Decade, 1947–1957 (Karachi: Oxford University Press, 1996), p. 2.

  2. Stanley Wolpert, Shameful Flight: The Last Years of the British Empire in India (Oxford University Press, 2006).

  3. Although Nimitz never wrote his memoirs, a historian at the U.S. Naval Academy was given access to his papers, so the inside story on the first American who tried to make peace in Kashmir is available.

  4. E. B. Potter, Nimitz (Annapolis, Md.: U.S. Naval Institute Press, 1976), p. 439.

  5. Ibid., p. 451.

  6. Howard Schaffer, The Limits of Influence: America’s Role in Kashmir (Brookings, 2009), p. 26.

  7. Bajwa, Pakistan and the West, p. 38.

  8. Ibid., p. 10.

  9. Shashi Tharoor, Nehru: The Invention of India (New York: Arcade, 2003), p. 205.

  10. Bajwa, Pakistan and the West, p. 56.

  11. Dennis Kux, Disenchanted Allies: The United States and Pakistan, 1947–2000 (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2001), p. 61.

  12. Ibid., p. 131.

  13. Steve Inskeep, Instant City: Life and Death in Karachi (New York: Penguin Press, 2011), p. 86.

  14. Kux, Disenchanted Allies, pp. 99–101.

  15. Clint Hill, Mrs. Kennedy and Me (New York: Gallery, 2012), p. 138. Hill describes how he had to fight Galbraith’s desire to get Mrs. Kennedy to more and more of India by expanding her schedule to twenty hours every day of the visit, ignoring her need to get a good night’s sleep.

  16. John Kenneth Galbraith, Ambassador’s Journal (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1969), p. 307.

  17. Odd Arne Westad, Restless Empire: China and the World since 1750 (New York: Basic Books, 2012), p. 342.

  18. Yaacov Vertzberger, “India’s Strategic Posture and the Border War Defeat of 1962: A Case Study in Miscalculation,” Journal of Strategic Studies, vol. 5, no. 3 (September 1982).

  19. Galbraith, Ambassador’s Journal, p. 378.

  20. It has been the home of the American ambassador to India ever since.

  21. Galbraith, Ambassador’s Journal, p. 446.

  22. Ibid., p. 372.

  23. Ibid., p. 446.

  24. Timothy Crawford, Pivotal Deterrence: Third Party Statecraft and the Pursuit of Peace (Cornell University Press, 2003), p. 153.

  25. Quoted in Kux, Disenchanted Allies, p. 136.

  26. Ibid., p. 146.

  27. Anand Giridharadas, “JFK Faced India-China Dilemma,” New York Times, August 26, 2005.

  28. Crawford, Pivotal Deterrence, p. 157.

  29. Ibid., pp. 138–61.

  30. Stanley Wolpert, Zulfi Bhutto of Pakistan: His Life and Times (Karachi: Oxford University Press, 1993), p. 98.

  31. Ibid., p. 155.

  32. David Ludden, “The Politics of Independence in Bangladesh,” South Asia Journal, no. 3 (January 2012), p. 77.

  33. Richard Sisson and Leo E. Rose, War and Secession: Pakistan, India, and the Creation of Bangladesh (University of California Press, 1990), pp. 135–37.

  34. Christopher Van Hollen, “The Tilt Policy Revisited: Nixon-Kissinger Geopolitics and South Asia,” Asian Survey, vol. 20, no. 4 (April 1980), p. 347. Hollen was the deputy assistant secretary of state for South Asia and was present in the room when Kissinger spoke.

  35. “Dissent from U.S. Policy toward Pakistan,” American Consul, Dacca, April 6, 1971. The full cable has been declassified and can be accessed in “The Tilt: The U.S. and the South Asian Crisis of 1971,” National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book 79, edited by Sajit Gandhi, December 16, 2002.

  36. See National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book 79, document 20.

  37. National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book 79, document 32.

  38. Dennis Kux, India and the United States: Estranged Democracies (Washington: National Defense University Press, 1992), p. 304.

  39. Van Hollen, “The Tilt Policy Revisited,” p. 351.

  40. Wolpert, Zulfi Bhutto of Pakistan, p. 165.

  41. Kux, Disenchanted Allies, p. 339.

  42. “Post Mortem Report: An Examination of the Intelligence Community’s Performance before the Indian Nuclear Test of May 1974,” Director of Central Intelligence, Top Secret Talent Keyhole, July 1974 (declassified and available at the National Security Archives).

  43. “Indian Nuclear Developments and Their Likely Implications,” Special National Intelligence Estimate 31–72 (declassified and available at the National Security Archives).

  CHAPTER 4

  1. Stanley Wolpert, Zulfi Bhutto of Pakistan: His Life and Times (Oxford University Press, 1993), p. 262.

  2. Dennis Kux, India and the United States: Estranged Democracies (Washington: National Defense University Press, 1992), p. 367.

  3. Author’s interview with His Royal Highness Prince Hassan bin Talal, April 11, 2010.

  4. Shuja Nawaz, Crossed Swords: Pakistan, Its Army, and the Wars Within (Karachi: Oxford University Press, 2008). p. 361.

  5. Seyyed Vali Reza Nasr, The Vanguard of the Islamic Revolution (University of California Press, 1994), p. 189.

  6. Nawaz, Crossed Swords, p. 361.

  7. C. Uday Bhaskar, “Hamid Karzai Clarification and Grey Sheen over AfPak,” Economic Times, October 26, 2011.

  8. Steve Coll, Ghost Wars (New York: Penguin, 2004), p. 180.

  9. Ayesha Siddiqa, Military Inc.: Inside Pakistan’s Military Economy (London: Pluto Press, 2007). p. 186

  10. Mohammad Yousaf and Mark Adkin, The Bear Trap: Afghanistan’s Untold Story (London: Leo Cooper, 1992), p. 22. Yousaf was the ISI Afghan bureau chief from 1983 to 1987, and the book is dedicated to General Akhtar Rahman. This is the definitive account of the ISI’s war from a Pakistani perspecti
ve.

  11. Mohammad Yousaf, Silent Soldier: The Man behind the Afghan Jehad (Lahore: Jang Publishers, 1991), p. 27.

  12. Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, “Religious Militancy in Pakistan’s Military and Inter-Services Intelligence Agency,” Afghanistan-Pakistan Theater: Militant Islam, Security, and Stability (Washington: FDD Press, 2010), p. 33.

  13. Yousaf, Silent Soldier, pp. 16 and 70.

  14. Fouad Ajami, “With Us or against Us,” New York Times, January 7, 2007, p. 14

  15. Vali R. Nasr, “International Politics, Domestic Imperatives, and Identity Mobilization: Sectarianism in Pakistan, 1979–1998, Comparative Politics, vol. 32, no. 2 (January 2000), pp. 171-90.

  16. Nawaz, Crossed Swords, pp. 372–73. Prince Turki confirmed this account in an interview with me.

  17. Ibid., p. 386.

  18. S. Frederick Starr, Xinjiang: China’s Muslim Borderland (New York: M.E. Sharpe, 2004).

  19. Ibid., p. 375.

  20. Carlotta Gall of the New York Times interviewed the ISI trainer, Colonel Imam, in 2010. I am indebted to her for this information on Mullah Omar’s ISI background. Colonel Imam also mentioned training Omar to Christina Lamb in “The Taliban Will Never Be Defeated,” London Sunday Times, June 7, 2009. Imam claims the ISI trained more than 95,000 Afghans.

  21. S. M. A. Hussaini, Air Warriors of Pakistan (Lahore: Ferozsons, 1980).

  22. Yousaf, Bear Trap, pp. 191–95.

  23. Yousaf, Silent Soldier, p. 42.

  24. Gregory Feifer, The Great Gamble: The Soviet War in Afghanistan (New York: Harper, 2009), p. 130. Feifer’s book is the best account available on the Soviet side of the war. The Soviets probably invaded Afghanistan more to defend the communist regime there than to advance to the Arabian Sea, but that is clearer now than it was at the time.

  25. Yousaf, Bear Trap, p. 97.

  26. Shahriar Khan, Genocide and War Crimes in Bangladesh (Dhaka: Forum for Secular Bangladesh, 2012).

  27. Arif Jamal, Shadow War: The Untold Story of the Jihad in Kashmir (Brooklyn: Melville House, 2009), pp. 107–11.

  28. Ibid., p. 115.

  29. The authoritative account of the CIA relationship with the mujahedin and the decisions made within the agency and the White House is by Robert Gates, From the Shadows: The Ultimate Insider’s Story of Five Presidents and How They Won the Cold War (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1996), p. 147. George Crile’s masterpiece, Charlie Wilson’s War (New York: Grove Press, 2001), adds insight and color to the story.

  30. Janet Blight and others, Becoming Enemies: U.S.-Iran Relations and the Iran-Iraq War, 1979–1988 (Plymouth, U.K.: Rowman and Littlefield, 2012), p. 66.

  31. Gates, From the Shadows, p. 321.

  32. Charles Cogan, “Partners in Time: The CIA and Afghanistan since 1979,” World Policy Journal, vol. 10, no. 2 (Summer 1993), p. 76.

  33. Ibid., p. 79.

  34. George Crile, Charlie Wilson’s War, pp. 502–03.

  35. Interview with Zvi Rafiah, May 10, 2010. Zvi was Charlie’s Israeli contact.

  36. Casey’s trip is recounted by Charles Cogan in “Partners in Time,” pp. 73–82. Cogan was the CIA’s Near East and South Asia division chief in the Directorate of Operations at the time; he went with Casey on all his visits to the region. Bob Gates also recounts the first Zia-Casey meeting in his book; see Gates, From the Shadows.

  37. Dennis Kux, The United States and Pakistan, 1947–2000: Disenchanted Allies (Johns Hopkins University, 2001), p. 279.

  38. Ibid., p. 281.

  39. Ibid., p. 289.

  40. Author’s interview with Robin Raphel, May 12, 2012.

  41. Yousaf, Bear Trap, p. 234.

  42. Barbara Crossette, “Who Killed Zia?” World Policy Journal, vol. 22, no. 3 (Fall 2005), pp. 94-102.

  43. Nawaz, Crossed Swords, pp. 393–405.

  44. Tariq Ali, The Assassination: Who Killed Indira? (Calcutta: Seagull, 2008). See also Katherine Frank, Indira: The Life of Indira Nehru Gandhi (London: Harper Collins, 2001).

  45. Krishnaswamy Sundarji, Blind Men of Hindoostan: Indo-Pak Nuclear War (New Delhi: UBS Publishers, 1993).

  46. The best chronicle of the Brass Tacks crisis is by Stephen Cohen, P. R. Chari, and Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema, Four Crises and a Peace Process: American Engagement in South Asia (Brookings, 2007).

  CHAPTER 5

  1. Fatima Bhutto, Songs of Blood and Sword: A Daughter’s Memoir (London: Jonathan Cape, 2010).

  2. “Visit of Pakistan’s Prime Minister (Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto and George Bush Addresses),” transcript, Department of State Bulletin, October 1, 1989.

  3. Mohammad Yousaf and Mark Adkin, The Bear Trap: Afghanistan’s Untold Story (London: Leo Cooper, 1992), p. 220.

  4. Separate author’s interviews with two former Indian intelligence officers in 2012.

  5. Arif Jamal, Shadow War: The Untold Story of Jihad in Kashmir (Brooklyn, N.Y.: Melville House, 2009), p. 128.

  6. Benazir Bhutto, Reconciliation, Islam, Democracy, and the West (New York: Harper Collins, 2008), pp. 195–201.

  7. Bhutto, Songs of Blood and Sword, p. 400.

  8. Arnaud de Borchgrave, “Army Back on Top,” Washington Times, March 30, 2010.

  9. “Report of the United Nations Commission of Inquiry into the Facts and Circumstances of the Assassination of Former Pakistani Prime Minister Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto,” April 2010, paragraphs 38 and 218.

  10. Jamal, Shadow War, p. 136.

  11. Zahid Hussain, Frontline Pakistan: The Struggle with Militant Islam (Columbia University Press, 2007), p. 54.

  12. Jamal, Shadow War, p. 13.

  13. Ibid., p. 137.

  14. Ibid., pp. 147–57.

  15. Arif Jamal, “South Asia’s Architect of Jihad: A Profile of Commander Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri,” Militant Leadership Monitor, vol. 1, no. 1 (Washington: Jamestown Foundation, January 30, 2010), pp. 8–10.

  16. P. R. Chari, Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema, and Stephen P. Cohen, Four Crises and a Peace Process: American Engagement in South Asia (Brookings, 2007), p. 86.

  17. Ibid., pp. 91–98.

  18. Husain Haqqani, Pakistan: Between Mosque and Military (Washington: Carnegie, 2005), p. 220.

  19. “Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan Discusses Nuclear Program in TV Talk Show,” Karachi Aaj Television, August 31, 2009.

  20. “Nawaz Sharif Met Osama Three Times, Former ISI Official,” Daily Times Monitor, June 23, 2005.

  21. Haqqani, Pakistan: Between Mosque and Military, p. 228.

  22. The most thorough investigation has been done by Asif’s brother Shuja Nawaz in Crossed Swords: Pakistan, Its Army, and the Wars Within (London, Oxford, 2008), Appendix 3, “Investigation into the Death of General Asif Nawaz,” pp. 599–605. He states that there was no direct evidence linking Prime Minister Sharif to the death, but the mystery remains.

  23. Strobe Talbott, Engaging India: Diplomacy, Democracy, and the Bomb (Brookings, 2006), p. 23.

  24. Secretary William J. Perry, Office of the Secretary of Defense, “Establishing Strong Security Relations with India and Pakistan,” Foreign Policy Association, New York, January 31, 1995.

  25. Central Intelligence Agency, “India: Improved Relations with China Tempered by Conflict and Competition,” September 1994; approved for unclassified release in September 2005 and available at the National Security Archives.

  26. United Nations Security Council Resolution 1172, adopted by the Security Council at its 3890th meeting, on June 6, 1998.

  27. Talbott, Engaging India, p. 61.

  28. Ibid., p. 4.

  29. For more information on al Qaeda, see Bruce Riedel, The Search for al Qaeda: Its Leadership, Ideology, and Future (Brookings, 2008).

  30. Talbott, Engaging India, p. 119.

  31. For more on this issue, see Bruce Riedel, Deadly Embrace: Pakistan, America, and the Future of the Global Jihad (Brookings, 2012).

  32. Peter Lavoy, “Why Kargil Did Not Produce General War: The Crisis Management Strategies of Pakistan, India, and the United States,” in As
ymmetric Warfare in South Asia: The Causes and Consequences of the Kargil Conflict (Cambridge University Press, 2009), edited by Peter Lavoy, p. 180.

  33. V. P. Malik, Kargil: From Surprise to Victory (New Delhi: Harper Collins, 2006), p. 146–47.

  34. Ibid., pp. 131, 147.

  35. Ibid., pp. 146–47.

  36. Jaswant Singh, A Call to Honour: In the Service of Emergent India (New Delhi: Rupa, 2006), p. 208.

  37. I have described the dialogue between the two leaders in detail in a monograph based on my notes of the meetings; see Bruce Riedel, “American Diplomacy and the 1999 Kargil Summit at Blair House” (University of Pennsylvania, Center for the Advanced Study of India, 2002).

  38. Talbot, Engaging India, p. 161.

  39. Pervez Musharraf, In the Line of Fire: A Memoir (New York: Free Press, 2007), pp. 58, 163.

  40. Singh, Call to Honour, p. 230.

  41. Malik, Kargil: From Surprise to Victory, p. 260. According to Malik’s account, India also cancelled the planned testing of its long-range missile, the Agni, on July 5, 1999, to avoid inflaming the situation further.

  42. Talbott, Engaging India, p. 167.

  43. William Clinton, My Life (New York: Random House, 2004), p. 866.

  44. Bhutto, Reconciliation, p. 212.

  45. Malik, Kargil: From Surprise to Victory, p. 348.

  46. Judith Miller and James Risen, “A Nuclear War Feared Possible over Kashmir,” New York Times, August 8, 2000.

  47. Clinton, My Life, p. 901.

  CHAPTER 6

  1. Rani Singh, Sonia Gandhi: An Extraordinary Life, An Indian Destiny (New York: Palgrave, 2011).

  2. Neelesh Misra, 173 Hours in Captivity: The Hijacking of IC 814 (New Delhi: Harper Collins, 2000), p. 47.

  3. Ibid., pp. 149, 170.

  4. Roy Gutman, How We Missed the Story: Osama bin Laden, the Taliban, and the Hijacking of Afghanistan (Washington: United States Institute for Peace, 2008), p. 192.

  5. Embassy of India, “Information on Hijacked Indian Airlines Flight IC 814,” Washington, January 2001.

  6. Jaswant Singh, In Search of Emergent India: A Call to Honor (Indiana University Press, 2007), p. 204.

  7. Ahmed Rashid, Descent into Chaos (New York: Viking, 2008), p. 48.

  8. George Tenet, At the Center of the Storm: My Years at the CIA (New York: Harper Collins, 2007), p. 147.

 

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