Finally, my gratitude and love to Michelle Pfeiffer, who is either my dear friend or the best actress in the world (or both), to Shaun Cassidy (mi hermano), for twenty-four years of friendship and encouragement, and to Carrie Fisher, who thanked me at the end of one of her books by saying: “without whom these acknowledgments would never have been possible.” Carrie: without you, these acknowledgments would never have been possible.
And of course, thanks to Kelly.
▪ APPENDIX ONE ▪
SIGNALS AND PREDICTIVE
STRATEGIES
PINs (pre-incident indicators)
FORCED TEAMING
LOAN SHARKING
TOO MANY DETAILS
UNSOLICITED PROMISES
TYPECASTING
DISCOUNTING THE WORD ‘NO’
THE INTERVIEW
RULE OF OPPOSITES
LIST THREE ALTERNATIVE PREDICTIONS
JACA (Justification, Alternatives, Consequences, Ability)
RICE (Reliability, Importance, Cost, Effectiveness)
THE MESSENGERS OF INTUITION
Nagging feelings
Persistent thoughts
Humor
Wonder
Anxiety
Curiosity
Hunches
Gut feelings
Doubt
Suspicion
Hesitation
Apprehension
Fear
▪ APPENDIX TWO ▪
HELP-GIVING RESOURCES
NATIONAL DOMESTIC VIOLENCE HOTLINE 1800 799-SAFE
This hotline provides information, support, and referral to battered women’s shelters in your area. Web site: www.ndvh.org
IMPACT:
Full-contact self-defense training for women using padded instructors who pose as assailants. Courses teach verbal skills to avoid confrontation, ways to make victimization less likely, and techniques designed specifically for the physical advantages women bring to self-defense. Available in most major American cities. For additional information, call IMPACT at 323 467-2288.
Web site: www.impactpersonalsafety.com
BIG BROTHERS / BIG SISTERS OF AMERICA:
215 567-7000 for a number in your area and details on how these exceptional mentoring programs work.
Web site: www.bbbs.org
ALANON FAMILY GROUPS:
Helps families affected by alcoholism and addiction. Special groups for children and teens are available in most areas. Alanon is reached through directory assistance or through a local office of Alcoholics Anonymous. Or call 757 563-1600.
Web site: www.al-anon.alateen.org.
NATIONAL CENTER FOR VICTIMS OF CRIME: 1800 394-2255
Information and support for victims of crime. The Center also sponsors research, training for corporate and government administrators. a central repository of criminal justice information, statistics, and solutions. Web site: www.ncvc.org
▪ APPENDIX THREE ▪
GUN SAFETY
For some people, banning handguns is the psychological equivalent of government-imposed castration, so let me be clear: I am not challenging our so-called right to bear arms (in whose name, by the way, more Americans have died at home than have died at war). And I am not advocating gun control. I am advocating something far more practical, something we might call bullet control.
I propose that we hold gun manufacturers to the same product-liability standards we require for every other consumer product. Imagine if caustic drain opener were sold in easy-pour, flip-top, pistol-grip dispensers made attractive to children by the endorsement of celebrities. Now, drain openers can hurt people, but they aren’t made for that purpose. Handguns are made precisely for that purpose, so shouldn’t manufacturers be required to build in safety features that have been technologically practical for decades? Even electric drills have safety triggers, yet revolvers do not.
Guns could have components that inhibit firing by children, or technologies that allow operation only in the hands of the owner (with a coded ring or wristband, for example, or a combination lock built into the gun). In the meantime, it’s easier to shoot most handguns than it is to open a bottle of children’s vitamins.
Speaking of tamper-proof containers, the design of billions of bottles of consumer products was changed after the deaths of eight people from poisoned Tylenol—a tragedy completely beyond the control of the manufacturer—while gun-makers knowingly and enthusiastically produce products which kill five hundred Americans each week, and we don’t require a single safety feature. Does it make sense to you that manufacturers who sell products specifically designed to inflict tissue damage, to do it efficiently, rapidly, portably, and lethally, have fewer safety requirements than virtually every other product you use?
Gun companies would say their buyers understand and accept the risks of firearms, but that doesn’t answer for the forty New Yorkers killed by stray bullets in one year alone, or for all the other people who will become unwilling consumers of ammunition.
To be certain the gun manufacturers have no misunderstanding, let me do right now what I hope more Americans will do, which is to put them on notice:
I, for one, do not accept the avoidable risks posed by your products. As a potential victim, I do not sign on to any implied agreement with Colt or Smith & Wesson or Ruger, and I hold you entirely accountable for your failure to build in child-safe and other locking features that would clearly and predictably reduce deaths.
Some gun owners explain that they needn’t lock their weapons because they don’t have children. Well, other people do have children, and they will visit your home one day. The plumber who answers your weekend emergency will bring along his bored nine-year-old son, and he will find your gun.
The other oft-quoted reason for not locking guns is that they must be ready to fire immediately in an emergency, perhaps in the middle of the night. Imagine being in the deepest sleep and then a split second later finding yourself driving a truck as it careens down a dark highway at seventy miles per hour. That is the condition gun advocates vigorously insist remain available to them, the ability to sit up in bed and start firing bullets into the dark without pausing to operate a safety lock. An Associated Press story described one gun owner who didn’t even have to sit up in bed; she just reached under her pillow, took her .38 in hand, and thinking it was her asthma medicine, shot herself in the face.
Every year in California alone close to 100,000 guns are stolen. The people of my state more than make up for the loss by purchasing 650,000 guns each year. Little wonder that in a typical week, almost a thousand Californians are shot. The majority survive to tell about their ordeal, so that those who hear the awful tales can rush out… and buy guns. There’s a lot to think about here, but my main point is that those stolen guns would be worthless and harmless if a locking system made them inoperable.
In the meantime, if you own a gun, you can do something the manufacturers have neglected to do: lock it, not just the cabinet or the closet or the drawer, but the gun itself. This paragraph is a survival signal for some child, because that is who will likely find the gun that the owner felt certain was too high to reach or too hard to fire.
Gun locks are available at gun stores and many sporting goods stores. Though not marketed specifically for guns, many types of padlocks can be placed through the trigger guard behind the trigger of revolvers. An excellent one for this purpose is the Sesamee lock manufactured by Corbin, which is available at many hardware stores. An advantage of this lock is that if the gun is found by an intruder and aimed at you, the lock is clearly visible to you on the gun. The Corbin Sesamee lock also allows the buyer to program in his or her own combination, making rapid removal easy if one knows the combination.
▪ APPENDIX FOUR ▪
PREPARING THE MIND FOR COMBAT
The Bulletproof Mind: Prevailing in Violent Encounters…and After, with an Introduction by Gavin de Becker, is a five-part, five-hour video training series.
Police officers and so
ldiers know all about maintaining physical readiness for combat, but it is the mind that must first be properly prepared, the mind which controls the hands, arms, eyes, and ears.
This video series was recorded live at a special meeting of experts from law enforcement and the military. They gathered to discuss just one thing—killing—with our Nation’s leading expert on the topic.
From him, you’ll learn how the body responds to lethal combat, what happens to your blood flow, your muscles, your judgment, memory, vision, and hearing when someone is trying to kill you. You’ll learn how to keep going even if you’re shot, and how to prepare your mind for survival instead of defeat.
Dave Grossman’s training is not merely information—it is armor you’ll carry throughout your life.
For more information about The Bulletproof Mind, visit: www.gavindebecker.com
▪ APPENDIX FIVE ▪
GAVIN de BECKER & ASSOCIATES
Since 1977 Gavin de Becker and Associates has been developing pioneering strategies for protecting public figures, government agencies, corporations, and others facing substantial safety and privacy challenges. Today, its 200 associates provide security and consultation services from offices in Los Angeles, New York, Washington, D.C., Chicago, Seattle, San Francisco, Santa Barbara, and Hawaii.
PSD
The Protective Security Division is the world’s leading provider of high-end protection services for at-risk public figures and sites. The division also houses the Secure Transportation Office, which provides safe and confidential transportation using strategically armored and security-enhanced vehicles. For qualified groups of seven or more, this division provides specialized training in public figure protection (including exercises from the firm’s Academy).
TAM
The Threat Assessment & Management Division evaluates and assesses threatening and otherwise inappropriate communications, and assists clients in managing situations of unwanted pursuit. This division provides consultation on the wide and ever-changing variety of safety and privacy challenges clients face.
The TAM Division houses the Investigations Department, which performs high-level, sub-rosa investigations related to safety and wellbeing. These include gathering information on unwanted pursuers, pre-employment background investigations, and due diligence assessments of people and businesses that might have an impact on clients’ well-being.
Training
Twice a year, the firm hosts the Advanced Threat Assessment Academy at the UCLA Conference Center. Attendees travel from all over the world to participate in this widely-known program, with alumni including professionals from the FBI Behavioral Sciences unit, the Central Intelligence Agency, the US Supreme Court, the US Capitol Police, dozens of major police departments and prosecutors’ offices, major universities, and more than 150 of the Fortune 500 companies.
MOSAIC
Gavin de Becker & Associates developed MOSAIC®, a comprehensive method for assessing situations that might escalate to violence. The firm was selected to design MOSAIC systems for State Police agencies protecting ten governors, twenty-five university police departments, the United States Supreme Court Police, the United States Marshals Service, the United States Capitol Police, the Defense Intelligence Agency, and the Central Intelligence Agency. MOSAIC systems are currently used by threat assessment practitioners for screening threats to public figures, assessing domestic violence situations, assessing threats by students, and assessing workplace violence hazards. The Division also develops new customized MOSAIC systems for specialized applications, such as the customized domestic violence training system commissioned by California for distribution to all of the State’s 800 police departments.
TSD
The Technical Security Division performs comprehensive security surveys of properties and provides technological and procedural recommendations to reduce or eliminate security risks. This division provides technical specifications for builders and systems installers.
ISD
The Information Security Division conducts audits of information systems and provides solutions to prevent loss of sensitive and personal information transferred between computers, PDAs, and wireless networks.
www.gavindebecker.com
▪ APPENDIX SIX ▪
THE ELEMENTS OF PREDICTION
1) MEASURABILITY OF OUTCOME
4 obvious, clear
3 discoverable and shared definition
1 discoverable, but fluid or inconsistent
0 not measurable/undiscoverable
2) VANTAGE
3 perspective view
2 proxy view
0 obstructed or no view
3) IMMINENCE
4 imminent
2 foreseeable
0 remote
4) CONTEXT
3 fully revealed
0 concealed
5) PRE-INCIDENT INDICATORS
5 several, reliable, detectable
3 few, reliable, detectable
0 unreliable or undetectable
6) EXPERIENCE
5 extensive with both outcomes
3 with both outcomes
2 one outcome
0 elemental/partial/irrelevant
7) COMPARABLE EVENTS
4 substantively comparable
1 comparable
0 not comparable
8) OBJECTIVITY
2 believes either outcome is possible
0 believes only one outcome or neither outcome is possible
9) INVESTMENT
3 invested in outcome
1 emotionally invested in outcome
0 uninvested in outcome
10) REPLICABILITY
5 easily replicable
2 replicable by sample or proxy
0 impractical or not replicable
11) KNOWLEDGE
2 relevant & accurate
0 partial or inaccurate
This scale helps determine if a given prediction can be made successfully (which is distinct from whether it will be made successfully). To evaluate a prediction, answer the eleven questions described in chapter 6 by selecting from the range of possible answers above. Then add up the total points.
22 or lower: Not reliably predictable; a matter of chance
23–27: Low likelihood of success
28–32: Predictable
32 or higher: Highly predictable
Note: The vantage question asks if the person making the prediction is in a position to observe the pre-incident indicators and context. If you can observe the situation and pre-incident indicators directly, then you have a Perspective View, but if you can only observe them through some medium (such as reports or other evidence), select Proxy View.
Following are some popular predictions, scored on the assumption that the person answering the question cares about the outcome and is as objective as possible:
WHO WILL WIN THE OSCAR? (predicted by film historian, Rod Lurie)
22 mere chance
WILL A THREATENER WHO IS KNOWN AND IDENTIFIED SHOW UP IN THE PRESIDENT’S ENVIRONMENT WITH A WEAPON? (predicted by Bryan Vosekuill and Robert Fein of the U.S. Secret Service)
33 highly predictable
WILL A GOOD FRIEND DEFAULT ON A LOAN? (predicted by the lender, who frequently lends money to friends)
33 highly predictable
WILL THE DOG IN FRONT OF ME ATTACK ME? (predicted by dog behavior experts, Jim and Leah Canino)
34 highly predictable
WILL A PUBLISHER BE INTERESTED IN A GIVEN BOOK IDEA? (predicted by literary agent, Kathy Robbins)
37 highly predictable
HOW WILL A GIVEN BOOK SELL? (predicted by editor Bill Phillips at the time of paying advance to author)
29 predictable
WILL A GIVEN GUEST DO WELL ON A TALK SHOW NEXT WEEK? (predicted by Peter Lassally, executive producer of the Tonight Show starring Johnny Carson and the Late Show starring David Letterman)
30 predictable
The Gift of Fear: Survival Signals That Protect Us From Violence Page 36