Bitcoin narrative, xviii, 3–11; anarchism and, 5–7; bimetallism and, 108, 161–62, 171; cause of increased value and, 72; contagion of, 21–23; cosmopolitan culture and, 4, 11, 87; cryptocurrencies competing with, 92; epidemic theory applied to, 21–23; fading by 2013, 76; fascination with narratives about money and, 173; fear of inequality and, 8–9; the future and, 9–10, 87; geographic pattern of spread, 299; history of, 4; as human-interest story, 7–8; key features of, 87; mathematical concepts underlying, 5, 302n3; membership in world economy and, 11; as mystery story, 7, 8, 162; in news articles by year, 22, 22f; in news articles compared to relevant algorithms, 9–10; sale of Bitcoin in convenience stores and, 10; similarity to gold standard and bimetallism narratives, 108–9; as successful economic narrative, 3–4; technocracy movement and, 193; uncertain truth of, 96; volatility of value in, 5, 10. See also Nakamoto, Satoshi
Bix, Amy Sue, 186–87
Blade Runner (film), 203
Blanc, Louis, 102
Blinder, Alan, 281
blockchains, 6
blue jeans, 147–48, 149
blue sky laws, 220, 221
Booker, Christopher, 16
book jackets, 60–61
Boulding, Kenneth E., xv–xvi
Box, George E. P., 295
Boycott, Charles C., 239–40
The Boycott in American Trade Unions (Wolman), 241
boycott narrative, 239–43; in 1973–75 recession, 256–57; contributing to 1920–21 depression, 249; going viral, 241; during Great Depression, 254; origins of, 239–40; profiteer stories in World War I and, 241–42, 246; recurring periodically, 241; during world financial crisis of 2007–9, 257; after World War II, 255. See also anger at businesspeople
brain: activated by analogy and metaphor, 17; basic story structures and, 15–16; being replaced by artificial intelligence, 199, 211; in dreaming, 32; fear-related structures in, 56–58; flashbulb memory and, 80–81; long-term memory formation and, 47; narrative processing disrupted by injury to, 65–66; narrative tendency in music and, 35; neurolinguistics of narrative and, 16–17; risk assessment by, 67; sharing content in form of stories and, 54; source monitoring by, 84, 307n21. See also neurolinguistics and narrative; neuroscience and narrative
breadline, 134
Brooks, Peter, 16
Brown, Donald E., 33
Brown, Roger, 307n13
Bruner, Jerome, 65
Bryan, William Jennings, 108, 164, 167–68, 170, 171, 172, 313n29
Buffett, Warren, 4
Burns, Arthur F., 125, 309n10
Bush, George W., 83, 154–55
business confidence narrative, 114–15, 116f, 118–19; conventional economists’ view and, xvi–xvii; gold standard and, 167, 168–69; stimulated by Bitcoin narrative, 4
business cycle, 124–25, 271. See also economic fluctuations
butterfly effect, 299–300
buy-and-hold strategy, xiii
“Buy Now Campaign” during Great Depression, 255
Callahan, Charlene, 281
Canada, National Dream, 151; Bank of Canada, 156
Čapek, Karel, 181–82, 203
Capital in the Twenty-First Century (Piketty), 150, 210–11
capitalism: Bitcoin narrative and, 87; triumphant narrative of, 29
Capper, Arthur, 249
The Captive Mind (Milosz), 57
Carroll, Lewis, 188
Case, Karl, 216, 226, 285
Case-Shiller home price index, 216, 222
Cass, David, 74
Cassel, Gustav, 188
causality between narratives and events, 71–74; controlled experiments and, 72–73, 77–79; vs. correlation, 286; direction of, 71, 72–74; economists’ presumption about, 73, 76–77; flashbulb memory and, 80; for recessions and depressions in US, 112. See also self-fulfilling prophecies in economics
Cawelti, John G., 16
celebrities: adding human interest to narratives, xii, 100–102, 153; Alan Greenspan as, 227; American Dream narrative and, 153; in Bitcoin-related stories, 7–8, 92; of Bloomsbury group, 26; changed in mutated narrative, 108–9; economic events affected by colorful phrases of, 75–76; forgotten or discredited, 110; Franklin Roosevelt as, 128; J. P. Morgan as, 115, 117–18; Keynes as, 25–26; not usually the inventors of narratives, 72; Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr., as, 127; preference for one’s country or ethnic group, 102; quotes associated with, 102; Reagan’s free-market revolution and, xii; Reagan’s supply-side rhetoric and, 51; shoeshine boy narrative and, 236–37; substituted as originator of a quote, 102; substituted for different target audience, 101; substituted to increase contagion, xii; Trump as, xii; Virginia Woolf as, 26; William Jennings Bryan as, 168
Centennial Exhibition of 1876, 177
central bank: end of wage-price spiral narrative and, 261; inflation targeting by, 261, 262; words and stories that accompany actions of, xvi. See also Federal Reserve
Cents and Sensibility (Morson and Schapiro), 16
chaos theory, 299–300
Chaplin, Charlie, 195
charitable giving in US, declining from 2001 to 2014, 272
Chase, John C., 181
Chase, Stuart, 185
chemical reactions, rate equations for, 290, 321n3
Cheney, Dick, 44
Chudley, Jody, 236
Chwe, Michael Suk-Young, 303n9
Cicero, 34, 46
Civil War, US: anger at those profiting during, 265–66; depression prior to, 111; emotional power of narratives and, 14; narrative describing first shots of, 81; panic of 1857 in run-up to, 115; Uncle Tom narrative and, 33
Cobden, Richard, 110
co-epidemics: of diseases, 294–95; of diseases with narratives, 23; of narratives, 28, 110, 225, 322n9 (see also constellations of narratives)
Coinage Act of 1834, 157
Coinage Act of 1873, 157, 165
Coin’s Financial School (Harvey), 161, 162
Cole, Harold L., 132
collective consciousness, 60
collective memory, 60
communications technology. See information technology
compartmental models of epidemics, 23, 289–93, 291f; applications that don’t fit such models well by, 295–96; ARIMA models and, 295; changed for social epidemics and epidemics of ideas, 296, 297; geographic, 296, 299; network models, 296. See also Kermack-McKendrick SIR model
compassion narrative, 137, 140, 141–42; decline in, 150, 272; in Japanese “lost decades,” 150
complacency, before financial crisis, 55–56
computer networks, singularity associated with, 204–5
computers: automation narrative mutated by, 204–5; “electronic brain” narrative and, 195; fear that jobs will be replaced by, 9, 10, 201; inequality in access to, 211; replacing human thinking, 199; successful in the home beginning in 1980s, 203; taking control of people’s lives, 8–9, 87
condominium conversion boom, 223–24
confabulation, 32, 66, 96
confidence indexes, 79, 119, 129, 266–67
confidence narratives: of 1930s still affecting public confidence, 129, 252; business cycle and, 124–25; causes of Great Depression and, 130, 132; classes of, 114–15, 116f; Hitler’s appeal and, 122; labor-saving machinery narrative and, 174; opinion leaders’ optimistic assurances and, 125–26, 127–28; other people’s confidence and, 114, 272; rapid changes in, 272; real estate and, 212; seemingly irrelevant events affecting, 67; stock market crash narrative and, 238; stock prices and, 228; weather forecasting and, 123. See also business confidence narrative; consumer confidence narrative; financial panic narrative
confluence of narratives, 29–30
Conley, John M., 15
consilience, 12–17
conspicuous consumption narratives, 136; American Dream narrative and, 154, 155; delaying car purchase during Depression and, 144; depression prolonged by avoidance of, 139, 142, 144–46; housing boom narrative and, 225; Veblen and, 154, 310n1
conspiracy theories in nar
rative, 35–36
constellations of narratives, 28–30; built around celebrities, 101–2; class struggle over gold standard and, 166–67; co-epidemic models applied to, 295; economic decision-making and, 91; of financial panic narratives, 115, 118f; Great Depression and, 129, 131, 135, 144; about Halley’s comet, 124; “Happy Birthday to You” and, 100; about housing market, 227; impact of, 29, 92–93; Laffer curve in, 47–48; names attached to, 94–95; as new context for old narratives, 271; not obvious from archival data, 86; opposing pairs of, 113; overview of, 28–30; on people paying more than 100% in taxes, 49; random events feeding into, 40, 99–100; recovery rates and, 89; after September 2001 terrorist attacks, 83, 307n20; about stock market bubbles, 228; suggestibility and, 119; supply-side economics as, 47–48; on tax cutting and smaller government, 52; on Wizard of Oz, 172
Consumer Confidence Index, 119, 266–67
consumer confidence narrative, 115, 116f, 118–19; nineteenth-century worldviews and, 116–17
Consumer Expenditure Survey of Federal Reserve, 282
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and interstate land sales, 317n15
consumerism, Albee’s criticism of, 153
Consumer Price Index (CPI), 245
consumers, theories based on motives and habits of, xv
consumption: depression prolonged by avoidance of, 139, 142, 144–46, 149; excesses of 1920s, 139; feedback loop between job loss and, 144–45; frugality narratives in Great Depression and, 136–37; labor-saving machinery narrative and, 209; underconsumption theory and, 187–92; visibility index of categories of, 144. See also conspicuous consumption narratives; spending
contagion of economic models, 24–28
contagion of economic narratives: affecting economic activity, 77; attached to celebrities, xii, 51; based on citations, 321n22; bimetallism and, 171; Bitcoin and, 21–23; consumer behavior and, 254; enhanced by memories, 252; focus group research and, 283; Frederick Lewis Allen and, x, xi; as heart of narrative economics, x; home prices and, 215, 226, 227; marketing-driven, 60–63, 297; medical model of epidemics and, 21, 23; by modern media, 297; mutation of narrative and, 109; new theory of economic change based on, 3; opportunities for repetition and, 97; perceptions of other people’s reactions and, 64; profiteer narrative and, 241–42; stock market crash of 1987 and, 233; wage-price spiral narrative and, 260
contagion of ideas or social epidemics, 296, 297
contagion of narratives: caused by unknown processes, 41; celebrity as source of, 102; functioning as metaphors, 17; historical recognition of, 58–60; by modern media, 297; often resulting from arbitrary details, 62–63; opportunities for repetition and, 97–100; theory of mind and, 63. See also contagion of economic narratives
contagion rates: book jackets and, 60–61; credibility of narrative and, 28–29; cultural factors affecting, 274; declining with time, 296; difficulty of predicting, 41; in disease epidemics, 18–21, 289, 290; effect of slight changes in, 40; engineered by marketers, 60; great variability of, 88–89; increased by new context, 271; increased by social media, 297; models from epidemiology and, 23–24, 295, 296; new technology leading to changes in, 273–75; novel ideas and concepts affecting, 97; raised by small detail, 45; of true vs. false stories, 96–97; varying through time, 295
controlled experiments on causality, 72–73; from outside economics, 77–79
Coolidge, Calvin, 44, 125
Coolidge-Mellon bull tips, 125–26
corporate profits: taxes on, 45, 48; viral narratives associated with, 47–48
corporate raiders, as viral term in 1980s, 47–48
cortisol, 54–55
cosmopolitan culture, and Bitcoin, 4, 11, 87
cost-push inflation, 258–59, 259f, 260
Coué, Emile, 121
CPI (Consumer Price Index), 245
crash narrative, 228, 229–33. See also stock market crash narrative
creative people: of news media, 75; recurrent narratives due to, 109–10; viral narratives due to, 60
credibility of narratives in a constellation, 28–29
Crimean War, effect of weather forecasting on, 123
Crime of 1873, 157–58, 171
criminology, narrative, 15
crocodile logo, 62
Cronon, William, 79
“Cross of Gold” speech, 167–68
cryptocurrencies: concept of, 3, 4; constellation of related narratives about, 92; gold standard and, 157; initial coin offerings (ICOs) and, 76; lack of definite knowledge about, 96; sold by vending machines, 10. See also Bitcoin narrative
“Cult of the Offensive,” 95
cultural change: constellations of narratives behind, 86; narratives as vectors of, xiii; two-step flow hypothesis of, 297
cultural entrepreneur, 71–72
cultural factors affecting contagion rates, 274
Curley, James, 128
cybernation, 202
Daley, Daryl J., 296
databases for studying narratives, 279, 281–82, 284–85. See also search engines; searching digitized data; textual analysis
Davis, Chester C., 190
Davis, Henry L., 167
Davis, Morris A., 214
Dean, James, 148
debt, and promotion of homeownership, 219
decision-making: automated by technology, 275; changed by economic narratives, 3; constellations of narratives in determination of, 91; fear-related brain circuitry and, 57–58; focused interviews for research on, 281; framing and, 66; of investors in stock market, 298–99; leading indicators approach and, 125; by mass of people not well-informed, 86
deficit spending: of Hoover administration, 188; Laffer curve and, 42
deflation: in depression of 1920–21, 111, 243–45, 246, 251, 253; gold standard and, 157, 161; in Great Depression, 253; wage cuts necessitated by, 188, 251
demand, depending on changes in narratives, 149–50
demand-pull inflation, 258
De Oratore (Cicero), 34
department store movement, 180
depression of 1873–79, 174, 176–79, 183, 188, 209
depression of 1893–99, 158, 159, 161, 163–65, 174, 179–81, 239, 241
depression of 1920–21, 111, 242–43; angry narratives in, 239, 241, 242; boycotts during, 254; deflation in, 111, 243–45, 246, 251, 253; excess profits tax contributing to, 249; fair wage narrative in, 250; family morale in, 138; fear of ostentation in, 144; Great Depression of 1930s and, 243, 251–53; labor-saving machine narrative and, 181–82; narratives causing abrupt end of, 250–51; postponement of purchases contributing to, 245, 246, 249; technocracy and, 193
depression of 1930s. See Great Depression of 1930s
depressions: in American colonies following French and Indian War, 58–59; biggest in US since 1854, 111–12; causes listed by economic historians, 112; crowd psychology and suggestibility in understanding of, 120; expected after World War II, 196–97, 199; gold standard narrative during, 158–59; information cascades and, 300; as narratives in themselves, 112; nineteenth-century worldviews and, 116–17; psychologically based economic narrative of, 118; technological unemployment narrative during, 176
The Desk Set (film), 201
devaluation: entering English language in 1914, 159; as positive terminology, 172–73; of US dollar in 1933, 172
dial telephone, and unemployment, 187, 190–91
digital divide, 211
digital signature algorithm, 5, 9–10
The Disposable American (Uchitelle), 150
donkeys for important ideas, 26, 303n11
dot-com boom, 109, 205, 206
dreaming: narrative form of, 32; suggestibility and, 120, 121
driverless vehicles, 8–9, 174–75, 207, 314n1
Dust Bowl, 130–31
dysnarrativia, 65–66
Ebola epidemics, 18–19, 19f, 21, 23–24; co-epidemics with narratives, 23; SEIHFR model of, 294
Eckstein, Otto, 112
eclipse of the sun in 2017, 61–62
economic behavior affected by narratives, xi, xiii, xviii, 3; brief exposure to narrative and, 80; difficulty in establishing connection, 93, 286; false narratives and, 97; forgetting and, x; with impact changing through time, 93–95, 283–84; scripts involved in, 74; in small fraction of population, 29; uncertain knowledge and, 96; years after the relevant narrative, 109. See also consumption; economic events affected by narratives; investment; saving; spending
Economic Consequences of the Peace (Keynes), xvii, 26
economic events affected by narratives, xii; biggest such events in US since 1854, 111–12; celebrities’ phrases with impact on, 75–76; difficulty of predicting, 58; economists’ presumption about economic forces and, 76–77; by fake narratives, 85; by false narratives, 95; by frugality vs. conspicuous consumption narratives, 136; by latent narratives of earlier years, 109; limited value of quantitative indexes and, 74–75; seemingly irrelevant factors and, 67. See also causality between narratives and events; depressions; economic behavior affected by narratives; recessions
economic fluctuations: driven by attention-getting narratives, 86; leading indicators approach to, 125; seen as repetitive and forecastable, 124–25; self-fulfilling prophecies and, 73–74
economic forecasting: analogy to weather forecasting, 123–25; ARIMA models in, 295; business cycle and, 124–25; causes of events and, 71; economists’ poor record of, xiii–xv, 301nn5–6; epidemic models and, xi, 295; leading indicators approach to, 125, 309n10; many different narratives required for, 267; moral imperative of, xv–xvii; promise of narrative economics for, xi, xiv–xv, 13, 277; self-fulfilling prophecy in, 123–24, 198
economic growth: inflation and, 319n10; supply-side economics and, 48. See also GDP growth in US
economic institutions, importance of narratives and, 3, 14
economic man, as rational optimizer, 120
economic models, contagion of, 24–28, 27f
economic narratives: analytical value of looking at, 238; anniversaries of past events and, 76; confluence of, 29–30; creative and innovative, 75; defined, 3; distorting professional narratives, xiii; geographic pattern of spread, 296, 299; history of, going back to ancient Rome, 58–60; human significance of stories and, 79–80; immense complexity of landscape of, 266–67; international, 110; judging which are important, 89–91; key features of, 87; medical model of epidemics and, 21–23; names attached to, 94–95; narratives that become economic, 74; originating with one or a few people, 71–72; oversimplified variants of, 26; predictable workings of, 77; recurrence of, 107–8, 109–10, 238; self-censorship of, encouraging panic, 115; seven key propositions with respect to, 103. See also constellations of narratives; contagion of economic narratives; moral dimensions of economic narratives; mutation of economic narratives; narrative economics; narratives; viral narratives
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