Psychologie des foules (The Crowd) (Le Bon), 59, 119
psychology and narrative, 15, 65–67, 78, 287
The Psychology of Suggestion (Sidis), 121
PTSD (post-traumatic stress disorder), 57
Public Opinion Research Archive, 284
purchasing power theory of wages, 188
push a button, 179, 200
Putin, Vladimir, 103
qualitative research, 281
quarantines, 19–20
quasi-controlled experiments, 73
questionnaire surveys, 285–86
Rand, Ayn, 50
random events with major effects, 40, 75, 99–100
randomness of which narratives go viral, 31, 40, 64–65, 286
random walk theory of speculative prices, xiii
rational expectations models, 277, 295, 301n13
Reagan, Ronald, xii, 42, 51–52, 153
Reagan administration, tax cuts by, 48, 51
real business cycle model, 24–25, 27f
real estate boom in 2000s: automation narratives and, 205; Trump University and, 226. See also housing booms
real estate narratives, 212. See also home price narratives
real estate speculation: in second half of twentieth century, 213. See also home price narratives
Rebel Without a Cause (film), 148
recessions: in 1949, 256, 264; in 1950s and 1960s, 199, 200–201, 264; in 1957–58, 201, 264; in 1973–75, 239, 256–57; in 1980 and 1981–82, 204; in 2001, ended after terrorist attack, 82–83, 307n17; biggest in US since 1973, 112; causes listed by economic historians, 112; consumer confidence narrative and, 115; economists’ reluctance to mention narratives underlying, 276; narrative infecting fraction of population and, 29; as narratives in themselves, 112; not successfully forecast, xiv, 301n6; popular belief in periodic nature of, 124–25; popular stories affecting, xii; reasons for hesitating to spend during, 75; self-fulfilling prophecy in forecasts of, 123–24, 125
reciprocity, human patterns of, 36
recovery in medical model, 18, 20–21, 23, 289; economic analogy to, 21
recovery rates: differences in, 89; difficulty of predicting, 41; models from epidemiology and, 20, 21, 23–24, 290; new technology leading to changes in, 273, 275; varying through time, 295. See also forgetting rates
recurrence of narratives, 107–8, 109–10, 238
redistribution proposals, 209–10
regulation: supply-side economics and, 48; twentieth-century reaction against, xii, 48, 50, 51
religious studies, narrative approaches to, 15
repetition of economic fluctuations, 124–25
repetition of narratives: contagion and, 97–100; meteorology and, 123
representativeness heuristic, 66–67
Republic (Plato), 34
Reserve Prime Fund, 135
retirement: homeownership as saving for, 219; ordinary people in nineteenth century and, 116
Rhys-Williams, Juliet, 210
Richards, George, 265–66
Riefenstahl, Leni, 122
risk assessment, by primitive brain system, 67
risk taking: entrepreneurial narratives and, 52; excessive complacency about, 55–56
Ritter, Jay, 224
rituals, reminding people of the narrative, 62, 303n9
Roaring Twenties, ix, 133, 135, 235
Robbins, Lionel, 111–12
Robey, Ralph, 125
robo-advisers, 275
robots: artificial intelligence and, 196; broad use of the term, 192; as cause of Great Depression, 191; in Chaplin’s Modern Times, 195; coinage of the term, 181–82, 186; enormous spike in mentions during early 1980s, 202–3; fear of, 186; Great Recession of 2007–9 and, 273; labor-saving machinery narrative and, 181–82; military uses planned for, 195; in movies, 203–4; product line failing in 1980s, 203; technological unemployment narrative and, 186. See also artificial intelligence narrative; automation narrative
robot tax, 209
Rockefeller, John D., 236
Rollaboard, 38, 39
Romer, Christina, 307n3
Roosevelt, Franklin: Buy Now Campaign of, 255; Depression fireside chat, 129, 278; “fear of fear itself” and, 128; National Industrial Recovery Act and, 189, 252; running against Hoover in 1932, 90, 91, 188–89
Roosevelt administration: codes of fair competition and, 132; confidence narratives and, 114
Roper, Elmo, 196–97
Ross, Andrew, 7
Roth, Benjamin, 141
RSA algorithm, 9–10
Rubik, Ernő, 47
Rubik’s Cube, 47, 52
Rumsfeld, Donald, 44
R.U.R.: Rossum’s Universal Robots (Čapek), 181–82, 196
Ryōkan, 150
Sadow, Bernard, 38
Saiz, Albert, 222
Salganik, Matthew J., 39, 300
salon, literature read aloud in, 274
Samuelson, Paul A., 24, 27–28, 303n8
Sandow, Eugen, 122
Sartre, Jean-Paul, 31
Saver, Jeffrey, 65–66
saving: in early twentieth century, 219; in eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, 116–17; homeownership and, 219–20
Schank, Roger C., 37
Schapiro, Morton, 16
schizophrenia, narrative in, 66
Schwartz, Anna J., 73, 132–33
Scott, Howard, 193, 194
scripts, 37–38; bank runs of 1893 and, 164–65; of Bush’s narrative after terrorist attacks, 83; economic narratives involving, 74, 77
search engines, x; changes in contagion caused by, 273; improvements needed for narrative economics research, 280–81
searching digitized data: companies offering intelligent searches, 287; differing meanings of words and phrases in, 93; of public documents and the media, 287. See also databases for studying narratives; textual analysis
secular stagnation: fears of, after 2007–9 financial crisis, 95; narratives in thinking about, 71
SEIHFR model, 294
SEIR model, 294; chaotic variations of, 299, 323n21
self-censorship of narratives, 115
self-fulfilling prophecies in economics, 73–74, 123–24, 125; optimistic stories after 1948 and, 198; temporary hardships creating pessimism and, 209
self-made man narrative, xii
self-referencing in marketing, 77
semantic search, 287
September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, 82–83, 284
sexual selection, 64–65
Sharpe, William, 275
Shell, Karl, 74
Shiller, Robert, xviii, 29, 38, 61, 64, 67, 216, 285, 298, 301n13
Sidis, Boris, 121
Silber, William, 94
Silverites, 158, 159, 160, 162–63, 164, 167; Wizard of Oz and, 171, 313n29
Simonides, 46
singularity, 199, 204–5, 207
Siri (Apple), 8, 206–7, 287
SIR model. See Kermack-McKendrick SIR model
SIRS model, 294, 322n4; for Internet memes, 297–98
sit-ins, 32–33
Six Cylinder Love (film), 144
size of an epidemic, 88–89, 292–93
slavery, and Civil War, 33
Slichter, Sumner H., 184–85
Sloss, Louis, 168–69
Smith, Adam, 44, 304n6
Smith, Al, 191
Snowden, Philip, 183–84
social change, and contagion of narratives, 32–33
social comparison: narratives about home prices and, 218, 220; narratives about stock market bubbles and, 228
social media: changes in contagion caused by, 273, 297; complicating geographic models of spread, 296; economic narratives spread through, xviii, 3, 21; home price narrative and, 218; reconstructing arc of narratives from, xiii; recurrent narratives and, 109–10; research using data from, 287. See also Internet
social media marketing, 274–75
social norms, 37. See also scripts
social sciences: con
trolled experiments in, 78; study of popular narratives in, 15
sociology: economics learning from, 78; narratives central to social change and, 32–33; storytelling and, 15
Socrates, 34
Something to Look Forward To (Rhys-Williams), 210
source monitoring, 84, 307n21
S&P/CoreLogic/Case-Shiller home price index, 216, 222
speculative bubbles: feedback loop of prices in, 216–17; information cascades and, 300; resembling sexual selection outcomes in animals, 65; valuation of Bitcoin seen as, 4, 5, 7
speculative investments: flipping and, 223–24; real estate as simplest of, 221; in undeveloped land, 220–21
speculative markets: before crash of 1929, ix, 125–26, 231; Keynes’s explanation of, 63–64
spending: boycott narrative and, 240, 254; hesitation during a recession, 75; postponed after World War I, 245–46, 249; postponed after World War II, 256; postponed during 1957–58 recession, 264; postponed during Great Depression, 129, 253–55; postponed in response to rising prices, 239; reduced by fear of automation, 201; reduced in 1973–75 recession, 256–57; revived after depression of 1920–21, 251; Roosevelt’s Depression fireside chat and, 278; women making most decisions in 1920s and 1930s, 254. See also boycott narrative; consumer confidence narrative; consumption
Sproul, Allan, 262
Star Wars trilogy (Lucas), 203
Steinbeck, John, 131
Sternberg, Robert, 79–80
Steve Jobs (Isaacson), 208
Stewart, William Morris, 166
stimulus. See economic stimulus
stock market: automated advisers for, 275; biggest expansion in US history, 1974–2000, 206; conversations and news media during corrections, 75; Keynes’s “beauty contest” metaphor and, 63; prices as indicator of public confidence, 129, 228; questionnaire surveys of investors, 285; speculative bubbles in, 216–17; survey of investors’ decision-making, 298–99; World War I and, 93–94, 283; World War II and, 94, 283, 308n6
stock market boom in 1920s: baffling to economists, 230; crowd psychology and, 119; Groucho Marx’s take on, 133; ticker projector and, 228–29
stock market boom in 1990s, 109, 206
stock market bubbles, 228; popping in 2000, 29, 83
stock market crash narrative, 228–29, 232–33, 232f; exaggerated assessments of risk and, 67; in Great Depression, 252; in Great Recession of 2007–9, 272; idea of divine punishment and, 236; lingering today, 238
stock market crash of 1929: American Dream narrative and, 231; battle between Wall Street and the Fed prior to, 126; blamed on surplus of goods produced by technology, 186, 192; boom and crash going viral after, 229; consumption demand falling immediately after, 307n3; disillusionment with optimistic predictions and, 126–28; economists’ puzzlement over, 229–30; evidence of danger prior to, 231–32; Fisher’s “permanently high plateau” phrase and, 75–76; high price-earnings ratio prior to, 231–32; moral narratives about, 235–36; narrative of human folly associated with, 228; narratives in 1920s and, ix–x, 72; overproduction or underconsumption theory and, 188; references to 1920–21 depression during, 252–53; rising unemployment prior to, 185–86; shoeshine boy narrative and, 236–37; “stock market crash” reminding us of, 17; suicide narratives associated with, 233–35
stock market crash of 1987: discussion of portfolio insurance and, 93; learned about by word of mouth, 89; narrative compared to 1929, 235; narrative of, 232f, 233; news media reminding public about, 76
stock price indexes: declining from 1929 to 1932, 230; public attention to, beginning in 1920s and 1930s, 97; public fascination with, 229
stories: basic structures of, 15–16; brain structure and, 54; emotion revealed in, 79; narrative as particular form of, 36; preference to share information in form of, 54; revealing personal values, 15; spread if we think others will spread them further, 63, 64; thinking in analogies and, 17. See also narratives
Stowe, Harriet Beecher, 33
structuralist literary theory, 16
Success Fundamentals (Marden), 122
suggestibility, 119–22, 120f; of less consumption during the Depression, 142
suicides after crash of 1929, 233–35
suitcases with wheels, 38–39
Sullivan, Mark, 172
sumptuary laws, 136
sunspots, 73–74
Sunstein, Cass, 277–78
super-spreaders, 20, 294
supply-side economics narratives, 48–52
surplus of goods produced by technology, 186, 192, 210
survey research, 285–86
susceptibles in epidemic, 20, 23, 289–90, 291f, 292, 294
Swing Riots in 1830, 174, 176
symbols, reminding people of the narrative, 62
synonyms, different connotations of, 94–95
talk shows, economic narratives spread through, 21
Talleyrand, 172
tax cuts: Laffer curve and, 42, 48, 51; of Reagan administration, 48, 51; supply-side economics and, 48–52
taxes: on corporate profits, 45, 48; Henry George’s single tax on land, 209; narratives of people paying more than 100%, 49; Rand’s Atlas Shrugged and, 50; reducing incentive to earn and create jobs, 42, 44; on Social Security benefits combined with Medicare surtax, 305n20
taxpayer revolt around 1978, 50
tax rates, of limited value in understanding economic events, 74–75
Taylor, Zachary, 110
teach-in, 33
technocracy, 192–94
technological unemployment narrative, 174, 175f, 183–86; automation with broader scope than, 200; concentration of business and, 190; during depressions, 176; economic effects of narrative itself, 211; epidemic models for, 294, 295; in Great Depression, 252; mutating after World War II, 196, 199; not strong in 1920s, 186–87; in run-up to World War II, 194–95; saturating the population in 1930s, 194; underconsumption and, 189. See also automation narrative; labor-saving machinery narrative
“technology taking over our lives” narrative, 8–9
Temin, Peter, 133, 172
Terkel, Studs, 234
The Terminator (film), 203
textual analysis, 279, 287. See also databases for studying narratives; searching digitized data
Thaler, Richard, 277–78
Thatcher, Margaret, 42, 51
Theobald, Robert, 210
theory of mind, 63–64
The Theory of the Leisure Class (Veblen), 310n1
“They say that …,” 92
Think and Grow Rich (Hill), 122
Think Big and Kick Ass in Business and Life (Trump with Zanker), 150
Thompson, Anne Kinsella, 226, 285
ticker projector, 228–29
time and motion studies, 184
Tmall Genie (Alibaba), 8, 207
Tobias, Ronald B., 16
Tracy, Spencer, 201
traffic light, replacing policemen, 182–83
Trans-Lux Movie Ticker, 228–29
“trending now,” x
trickle-down economics, 44
Triumph of the Will (film), 122
Trohan, Walter, 51
Trulia, 218
Trump, Donald J.: bigly and yuge coined by, 244; downplaying modesty and compassion, 150; gold standard and, 156, 173; modeling ostentatious living, 272; narrative of, xii, 225–26
Trump administration, less generosity toward the poor during, 272
Trump supporters, resembling Silverites, 162–63
Trump University, 226
trust, in business dealings, 101
trusts, public anger about, 181
tulip mania in 1630s, 4, 5
Tversky, Amos, 66
Twain, Mark, 124
Twitter: meme quickly going viral on, 88; retweeting of mostly false stories on, 96–97
Typhoid Mary, 20
tyranny of metrics, 75, 306n5
Uchitelle, Louis, 150
Uncharted: Big Data as a Lens on Human Culture (Aiden and Michel
), 24
Uncle Tom’s Cabin (Stowe), 33
underconsumption theory, 187–92
Understanding the Process of Economic Change (North), 14
unemployment: artificial intelligence narrative and, 273; automation and, 199–200, 204; constant reminders of possibility of, 89; crime and, 141, 142; in depression during 1890s, 111; employee morale and, 147; gold standard and, 172; in Great Depression of 1930s, xiv, 111, 132, 141, 142, 143, 146–47, 172, 187, 189–91, 193; Kiplinger’s 1930 list of causes of, 130, 132; labor-saving machinery narrative and, xiv, 9, 130, 177–81, 187–88, 191–92; narratives focused on massive occurrence of, 129–31; Nazi Party’s rise in Germany and, 195; robotics and, 209; technology raising specter of, 8–9, 130; underconsumption theory and, 187–91. See also labor-saving machinery narrative; technological unemployment narrative
unemployment rate, first measurements by US government, 131, 184, 185
unfair behavior, human eagerness to punish, 36
universal basic income, 209–10
universals: anthropologists’ study of, 33–35; social comparison as, 218
Valenti, Jack, 41
Van Evera, Stephen, 95
Vartanian, Oshin, 17
Veblen, Thorstein, 154, 193, 310n1
Versailles treaty, Keynes on consequences of, xvii–xviii, 26
viral diseases. See Ebola epidemics; influenza; Kermack-McKendrick SIR model
viral narratives: affecting economic activities without regard to truth, 95–96; American Dream as, 151–54, 152f; appearance of term “going viral,” x; about bimetallism, 170, 172; about boycotts, 241; causal elements of, 72; choice of celebrities and, 100; confluence of, 29; creators of, 60; experimental evidence relevant to, 39–40; of “fire in a crowded theater,” 127; about gold standard, 168, 172; about hypnosis, 122; about labor-saving machines, 195; mathematical model of epidemic and, 293; needing personality and story, xii; news publishers’ financial success and, 61; about office automation, 204; randomness of which stories become, 31, 40, 64–65, 286; Roosevelt’s quote about fear, 128; sit-ins and, 32–33; about stock market boom and crash, 229; about technological unemployment, 185; about wage-price spiral, 259–60
visual images: changed in mutated narrative, 108; memory aided by, 45, 46–47; power of Laffer curve narrative and, 45, 48
vivid mental images, jury members’ response to, 78
volatility, and epidemic quality of economic narratives, 5
Vosoughi, Soroush, 96–97
wage cuts: anger at business over, 239; criticized during Great Depression, 251–52; National Industrial Recovery Act and, 252
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