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INDEX
The page numbers in this index refer to the printed version of this book. The link provided will take you to the beginning of that print page. You may need to scroll forward from that location to find the corresponding reference on your e-reader.
AARP, 185
accountability, 129, 130, 135–37, 149, 150, 176, 188, 199, 204
accuracy, 129, 130, 132–34, 136, 138, 139, 145, 150, 155–56, 158, 160, 161, 171
Adventures of the Mind, 243n
After-School All-Stars (ASAS), 213–15, 217
age-progression technology, 184–87
agreement, 173–74
Alcoholics Anonymous (AA), 127–28, 132–33, 248n
All In: The Poker Musical, 91
all-or-nothing thinking, see black-and-white thinking
Alou, Moises, 98, 99
American Foreign Service Association, 139–40
Anguished English (Lederer), 90n
approval, 132–34
Arbesman, Samuel, 67–68, 219
Ariely, Dan, 89
Armstrong, Scott, 143
Ascent of Man, The (Bronowski), 20
assent, 173
automobile accidents, 89–90, 101, 111–12
backcasting, 218–22, 225, 226
backgammon, 244n
Back to the Future movies, 177
Bailenson, Jeremy, 185
baldness, 49, 51
Bank of America Merrill Lynch, 185
Bartman, Steve, 98–100, 114, 229, 247n
baseball, 84
Bartman play in, 98–100, 114, 229, 247n
Behavioral and Brain Sciences (BBS), 146–48, 153, 154
behavioral economics, 11
behavioral research, 107
Belichick, Bill, 6, 48
beliefs, 43, 44, 47–72, 76–77, 115, 122, 130
abstract, 50–52, 65–66
accuracy of, 138
based on hearing something, 49–53, 65–66
betting on, 61–62, 64–67, 72, 79–80, 84, 209
confidence in, 67–72, 135, 169
confirmatory thought and, 128
as contagious, 168
expressing, 170
formation of, 49–55, 59, 61, 65–66, 80
information and, 49–53, 55–56, 59–61, 66, 70, 94, 138–39
and processing experience, 57–59
smart people and, 62–64
stubbornness of, 59–62
Believing Brain, The (Shermer), 11–12
Benghazi attack, 92
Berkshire Hathaway, 191–93
Berra, Yogi, 96, 247n
bet(s), 111–14
accountability and, 135
on beliefs, 61–62, 64–67, 72, 79–80, 84, 209
decisions as, 3–4, 43–45, 67
definition of, 44
on future, 79–80, 209
against ourselves, 45–46
winning, 130
bias, 66, 124, 131–32, 139, 157, 181n, 207
/> blind-spot, 62–63, 125–26
confirmatory thought and, 128–29, 132, 141–48, 155
exploratory thought and, 128
hindsight, 10, 26, 212, 227–31
Rashomon Effect and, 157–58
self-serving, 89–96, 102, 103, 108, 110–12, 115, 132, 136, 194
Binion’s Horseshoe Casino, 101, 124n
bin Laden, Osama, 140, 208–9
black-and-white thinking, 29–31, 34, 67, 94–95, 97, 105
blackjack, 194–96
blind-spot bias, 62–63, 125–26
Bosnia, 140
Bossypants (Fey), 250n
brain, 11–15, 53, 107, 110, 116, 122, 132, 165, 183, 188, 191, 198, 219
brain tumors, 197
Brethren, The (Woodward and Armstrong), 143
Brexit, 31–32, 231, 245n
Breyer, Justice, 143–44
Bronowski, Jacob, 20
Buddhist monks, 110
buddy system, 124, 178
Burger, Justice, 143
Burke, Brian, 6
business start-ups, 29, 35
“but,” 173, 207
Caldwell, Charley, 57
Camerer, Colin, 13, 242n
Cantril, Hadley, 57–58
car accidents, 89–90, 101, 111–12
cardiovascular disease, 55, 164–65
Carroll, Pete, 5–7, 10, 11, 22, 33, 35, 46, 48, 165–66, 216–18, 229, 230, 241n–42n
Carstensen, Laura, 185
Catching Hell, 99
Center for Retirement Research, 184
Central Park, 220
CEO’s president-firing decision, 8–11, 33, 43, 48, 158, 229–30
certainty:
illusion of, 204, 206, 207
see also uncertainty
characterizations, 205
chess, 20–23, 80, 86, 91, 219, 244n
Chicago Cubs, 98–100, 229
children, 45, 175–76
Christie, Chris, 92–93, 110
CIA, 140, 170
Citizen Kane, 64–65, 68–69
Clinton, Hillary, 32–33, 92, 230–31, 245n
Cocteau, Jean, 98
coelacanth, 67–68
coin flips, 24–26, 244n
communication:
of information, 166, 173
with world beyond our group, 172–76
communism, Mertonian, 154–60, 206
comparison and competition, 104, 105, 107, 109, 110, 123, 165
compassion, 102–3, 105, 113–14
self-, 206
ConAgra, 228–29
confidence in beliefs, 67–72, 135, 169
overconfidence, 204
confidence intervals, 72
confirmatory thought, 128–29, 132, 141–48, 155, 205
conflicts of interest, 164–69, 206–7
Conrad, Lauren, 119–21, 125, 161, 175, 205
consequences, 179–80
Constitution, 156
Crawford, Jarret, 146
Crystal Lounge, 2, 75, 90
CUDOS, 153–55
disinterestedness, 154, 155, 164–69
Mertonian communism, 154–60, 206
organized skepticism, 154, 155, 169–71, 206, 224
universalism, 154, 155, 160–64, 173, 205
Daily Princetonian, 57
Dartmouth-Princeton football game, 56–59
data interpretation, 63–64, 181n
Dawkins, Richard, 92n, 103
D-Day, 208
debating, 168–69
decision groups (truthseeking groups), 124–27, 188, 205, 206, 225
accountability in, 129, 130, 135–37
accuracy in, 129, 130, 132–34, 136, 139
charters for, 128–31, 133, 150, 157
communicating with world beyond, 172–76
debating in, 168–69
diversity of viewpoints in, 137–41
rules of engagement for, 150–51, 154–55; see also CUDOS
social approval in, 132–34
tilt and, 199–200
decisions, 2–4, 44, 231
as bets, 3–4, 43–45, 67
consequences of, 179–80
moving regret in front of, 186–89
in poker, 116, 167, 179, 180, 188, 196–98
decision swear jar, 204–7
deliberative mind, 12–14, 16, 181n, 183, 186
Dershowitz, Alan, 32
Des Moines, Iowa, 37–43, 46, 48, 62, 66, 79, 135
detail, 158–59
devil’s advocate, 170–71
diabetes, 55, 164
disinformation, 60
disinterestedness, 154, 155, 164–69
dissent, 128, 137, 139–40, 143, 145, 148, 160, 169–73, 212, 225
Dissent Channel, 139–40, 170
diversity of opinions, 60–61, 129–30, 137–42, 145, 147–48, 150, 171, 172n, 211, 225
doctors, 81, 96
dog-to-human age ratio, 49, 50, 53
Doubleday, Abner, 53
Dreber, Anna, 149
Dr. Strangelove, 19, 243n
Duarte, José, 146
Duhigg, Charles, 106–7, 109, 115
Dyson, Freeman, 243n
Dyson, George, 243n
Easterbrook, Frank, 227–29
echo chambers, 128–29, 141, 144–45, 206
Eli Lilly, 150
Ellis Island, 53
emotions, 191, 194–96, 198–200
employees, 48
hiring of, 42–43, 145, 172n
Epstein, Theo, 100
ESPN, 91, 99
evolution, 11–13, 51–52, 64, 110
natural selection in, 91n–92n, 103
experience:
learning and, 78–80, 82, 88, 89, 91, 93–95
processing of, 57–59
experts, 28, 78–79, 149–50, 158–59
exploratory thought, 128–29, 134
extinct species, 67–68
Facebook, 61
fake news, 60
false positives and false negatives, 12, 52
fat, 54–55, 62, 85–86, 164–65
feedback, 78–82
Fey, Tina, 250n
Feynman, Richard, 72n, 156, 166, 170
filter bubble, 61
Firestein, Stuart, 27, 246n
FiveThirtyEight.com, 6, 32, 230, 245n
flat tire, 190–91, 194–96, 200
Florida Marlins, 98–100
food and diet, 54, 202–3, 221
fat in, 54–55, 62, 85–86, 164–65
SnackWell’s, 85–86, 179
football, 159
Super Bowl, 5–7, 10, 22, 46, 48, 165–66, 216–18, 241n–42n
Foreign Service, 139–40
FoxSports.com, 6
Freedom of Information Act, 157
Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, 185
free press and free speech, 156
future, 46, 79–81, 88, 174, 178
age-progression software and, 184–87
backcasting from, 218–22, 225, 226
betting on, 79–80, 209
imagining, 183, 221
negative, working backward from, 221–26
reconnaissance and, 207–12, 218
retirement planning and, 182, 184–86, 203
scenario planning and, 209–18
see also outcomes; time travel, mental
gambling, 4, 39, 45, 194–96
negotiated settlements in, 40
slot machines, 87–88
see also poker
game theory, 19–21, 23,
242n, 243n
General Electric, 150
generalized characterizations, 205
genes, 49, 83, 91n–92n, 103
Gibney, Alex, 99
Gilbert, Daniel, 50–52, 104
goals, 82, 84, 108, 111, 174
adjusting, 226
working backward from, 220–24
Goldman, William, 26, 244n
golf, 83, 109, 247n
Gonzalez, Alex, 100
Google, 52–53, 61, 150, 184
grain bin explosion, 228–29
grant prospecting, 213–15, 217–18
gratification, immediate or delayed, 182n, 226
Green Bay Packers, 159
Grey, David, 135
groups:
for decision making and truthseeking, see decision groups
reasoning styles in, 128–29
groupthink, 128
habits, 105–11, 115, 117, 133, 134, 160, 188
loops in, 106–7, 109
Haidt, Jonathan, 104, 129–30, 145–46, 157
Half-Life of Facts, The (Arbesman), 67–68, 219
Hamm, Mia, 109
Hansen, Gus, 244n
happiness, 104, 231
individual moments and, 190–91, 193–94, 199
Happiness Hypothesis, The (Haidt), 104
Harrington, Dan, 244n, 248n
Harvard Business Review, 96, 219
Hastorf, Albert, 57–58
Hearst, William Randolph, 60
heart disease, 55, 164–65
Heider, Fritz, 89
Hellmuth, Phil, 90–91
Hennigan, John, 37–43, 48, 79, 135
Heterodox Academy, 146–49, 153, 172n
Hills, The, 119
hindsight bias, 10, 26, 212, 227–31
home buyers, 202
Howard, Ronald, 190n
Huxley, Aldous, 78–79
Ignorance: How It Drives Science (Firestein), 27
immigrants, 53, 140
improvisation, 173–74, 207, 250n
information, 28, 34, 70, 136
beliefs and, 49–53, 55–56, 59–61, 66, 70, 94, 138–39
communication of, 166, 173
disinformation, 60
hidden and incomplete, 20–23, 25, 26, 33–35, 45, 81, 87, 158
new, 55–56, 61, 70, 173
processing of, 55, 59, 62, 123, 165
sharing of, 156–60
source of, 161
Institute for Advanced Study, 243n, 246n
intellectual property, 157
International Academy of Trial Lawyers (IATL), 93
Internet, 60–61, 145