46. Bilingual national survey of 800 Hispanic adults, 470 also registered voters, by Latino Opinions, June 5–16, 2013; survey of 1,220 Hispanic adults by Pew Research Center, November 9–December 7, 2011, cited in “When Labels Don’t Fit: Hispanics and Their Views of Identity,” Pew Research Center, April 4, 2012, p. 23; Cristina Costantini, “Study: Latinos Learn English Faster Than Past Immigrants,” Fusion.net, June 18, 2013.
47. National survey of 1,000 adults by Rasmussen Reports, May 10–11, 2013.
48. Address to the nation on immigration by President Barack Obama in the White House, Washington, D.C., November 20, 2014.
49. Carrie Dann, “Immigration Reform Activists Seize on ‘Moral Tone’ of Civil Rights Movement,” NBC News, August 27, 2013.
50. “Growth and Opportunity Project,” Republican National Committee, 2013, pp. 8, 15.
51. Ronald Brownstein, “How Essential Is a College Education?,” National Journal, November 9, 2013.
52. Ibid.
53. Survey of 1,502 adults by Pew Research Center, p. 3.
54. Hawkins, “5 Reasons America Is in Decline.”
55. John T. Jost, “The End of the End of Ideology,” American Psychologist 61, no. 7 (October 2006): 655, 661–62.
56. Peter Rentfrow, John Jost, Samuel Gosling, and Jeffrey Potter, “Statewide Differences in Personality Predict Voting Patterns in 1996–2004 U.S. Presidential Elections” in John Jost, Aaron Kay, and Hulda Thorisdottir, eds., Social and Psychological Bases of Ideology and System Justification (New York: Oxford University Press, 2009), Kindle locations 4570–4577.
57. Rentfrow et al., “Statewide Differences in Personality,” Kindle location 4305.
58. Jonathan Haidt and Jesse Graham, “Planet of the Durkheimians, Where Community, Authority, and Sacredness Are Foundations of Morality,” Social and Psychological Bases of Ideology and System Justification (New York: Oxford University Press, 2009), Kindle locations 5092–5148; Jeffrey M. Jones, “On Social Ideology, the Left Catches Up to the Right,” Gallup, May 22, 2015.
59. Ibid., Kindle locations 5174–5186.
60. “Political Polarization in the American Public,” Pew Research Center, June 12, 2014, p. 83; Jeffrey M. Jones, “Conservative Lead on Social and Economic Ideology Shrinking,” Gallup, May 28, 2014.
61. “Political Polarization in the American Public,” Pew Research Center, June 12, 2014, pp. 41–42.
62. Ibid., p. 45.
63. Ibid., p. 12.
64. Ibid., p. 34.
65. Ibid., p. 33.
66. Ibid., p. 22–24.
7 THE DEMOCRATIC ASCENDANCY
1. National election night survey of 1,429 likely 2016 voters, including 1,030 2014 voters, by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps, November 3–5, 2014.
2. The GOP conservative heartland includes Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.
3. Pew Hispanic Center analysis on national exit poll data, 1980–2012, cited in “Latino Voters in the 2012 Election,” Pew Research Center, November 7, 2012, pp. 4, 13; national survey of 1,765 Hispanic adults by Pew Research Center, September 7–October 4, 2012, cited by Eileen Patten and Mark Hugo Lopez in “Are Unauthorized Immigrants Overwhelmingly Democrats?,” Pew Research Center, July 22, 2013; analysis of 7,901 Hispanic respondents interviewed in daily national tracking surveys by Gallup, January 3–June 27, 2013, cited by Frank Newport and Joy Wilke in “Hispanics of All Ages Tilt Democratic,” Gallup Politics, July 15, 2013.
4. Jens Manuel Krogstad and Mark Hugo Lopez, “Hispanic Voters in the 2014 Election: Democratic Advantage Remains, but Republicans Improve Margin in Some States,” Pew Research Center, November 7, 2014.
5. David A. Bositis, “Blacks & the 2012 Democratic National Convention,” Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, September 2012, p. 9; “National Exit Poll Tables,” The New York Times, November 5, 2008.
6. Thom File, “The Diversifying Electorate—Voting Rates by Race and Hispanic Origin in 2012 (and Other Recent Elections),” U.S. Census Bureau, May 2013, pp. 3–5; “Exit Polls: Va. Governor,” The New York Times, November 6, 2013.
7. “Election 2012: President Exit Polls,” The New York Times, updated November 29, 2012; multilingual exit poll of 9,096 Asian American voters in fourteen states and Washington, D.C., by The Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund, 2012, cited in the slide show “The Asian American Vote,” The Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund, January 17, 2013.
8. “Grand Old Party for a Brand New Generation,” College Republican National Committee, June 2013, pp. 2, 69; “Young Voters Supported Obama Less, but May Have Mattered More,” Pew Research Center, November 26, 2012; based on totals from all Pew Research surveys of the general public between 2004 and 2014, cited in “Millennials in Adulthood,” Pew Research Center, March 7, 2104; “How Americans Voted in House Elections, Based on Exit Polls Conducted by Edison Research,” The New York Times, November 4, 2014; projections made by Democracy Corps based on Census data and past election turnout; Nate Cohn, “Democrats Keep Lead in Party Identification,” The New York Times, April 10, 2015; David Madland and Ruy Teixeira, “New Progressive America: The Millennial Generation,” Center for American Progress, May 2009, p. 1; national survey of 950 likely 2016 voters at 60 percent cell conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps and Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, June 13–17, 2015.
9. Projections made by Democracy Corps based on Census data and past election turnout.
10. Jonathan Vespa, Jamie M. Lewis, and Rose M. Kreider, “America’s Families and Living Arrangements: 2012,” U.S. Census Bureau, August 2013; based on 7,004 interviews from national surveys by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps, July 2013–January 2015; national election night survey of 1,429 likely 2016 voters, including 1,030 2014 voters, by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps and Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, November 3–5, 2014.
11. National election night survey of 1,429 likely 2016 voters.
12. Based on 7,004 interviews from national surveys by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps, July 2013–January 2015.
13. National survey of 950 likely 2016 voters by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps and Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, January 7–11, 2015.
14. Ruy Teixeira, “Why Democrats Win the Presidency but Lose the House,” Think Progress, May 29, 2013.
15. Based on analysis of the 2012 presidential election results by county.
16. Based on 2012 presidential election results by county, the U.S. Census Bureau’s definition of metro statistical areas, and McKinsey Global Institute’s analysis of GDP generated by global cities: “Urban World: Cities and the Rise of the Consuming Class,” McKinsey Global Institute, June 2012.
17. Teixeira, “Why Democrats Win the Presidency but Lose the House”; Richard Florida, “What Is It Exactly That Makes Big Cities Vote Democratic?,” The Atlantic, February 19, 2013; analysis of the county level 2012 presidential election results.
18. Based on 7,004 interviews from national surveys by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps, July 2013–January 2015.
19. Florida, “What Is It Exactly That Makes Big Cities Vote Democratic?”; analysis of 2012 presidential election results for the San Jose and Seattle metro statistical areas as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau.
20. Florida, “What Is It Exactly That Makes Big Cities Vote Democratic?”
21. Based on 2012 presidential election results by county and the U.S. Census Bureau’s definition of metro statistical areas; Robert Gebeloff and David Leonhardt, “The Growing Blue-State Diaspora,” The New York Times, August 23, 2014.
22. National survey of 950 respondents and an oversample of 760 Republicans by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps’ Republican Party Project, July 10–15, 2013.
23. National survey of 950 likely 2016 voters by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps and Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, January 7–11, 2014.
24. Survey of 1,008 by Selzer & Company for Bloomberg Politics, April 6–8, 2015; “A Deep Dive into Party Affiliation,” Pew Research Center, April 7, 2015; Nate Cohn, “Democrats Keep Lead in Party Identification,” The New York Times, April 10, 2015; national survey of 950 likely 2016 voters at 60 percent cell conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps and Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, June 13–17, 2015; Janet Hook, “Liberals Make Big Comeback in 2015, Poll Analysis Finds,” The Wall Street Journal, June 7, 2015.
25. Ron Brownstein, “Shellacking, the Sequel,” National Journal, November 8, 2014.
26. National election night survey of 1,429 likely 2016 voters, including 1,030 2014 voters, by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps and Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, November 3–5, 2014; Brownstein, “Shellacking, the Sequel.”
27. “How Americans Voted in House Elections, Based on Exit Polls by Edison Research.”
28. National survey of 1,000 likely 2012 voters by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps and the Center for American Progress, October 15–18, 2011.
29. National election night survey of 1,429 likely 2016 voters, including 1,030 2014 voters, by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps, November 3–5, 2014; based on 7,004 interviews conducted by Democracy Corps nationally, July 2013–January 2015.
30. National survey of 950 likely 2016 voters by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps and Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, January 7–11, 2015; national survey of 950 likely 2016 voters at 60 percent cell conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps and Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, June 13–17, 2015; from focus groups conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps and Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund on May 19, 2015 in Jacksonville, Florida, among older white unmarried women and young white non-college-educated women and on June 4, 2015 in Orlando, Florida, among white non-college-educated women and white non-college-educated men.
31. National election night survey of 1,429 likely 2016 voters, including 1,030 2014 voters, by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps, November 3–5, 2014; national survey of 950 likely 2016 voters by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps and Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, January 7–11, 2015. National survey of 950 likely 2016 voters at 60 percent cell conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps and Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, June 13–17, 2015.
32. Jonathan Chait, “The Color of His Presidency,” New York, April 6, 2014; Avidit Acharya, Matthew Blackwell, and Maya Sen, “The Political Legacy of American Slavery,” University of Rochester, February 13, 2014.
33. Based on 13,197 interviews from national surveys by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps throughout 2012, overall margin of error of ± 3 percent. The actual 2012 election results were within the margin of error.
34. Ibid.
35. Ibid.
36. Kyle Kondik, “Size Matters When It Comes to U.S. House Districts, That Is,” Sabato’s Crystal Ball, May 23, 2013; Charlie Cook, “The Republican Advantage,” National Journal, April 11, 2013.
37. Markos Moulitsas, “The 2020 Redistricting Battle Begins in 2014,” Daily Kos, August 29, 2013; Jowei Chen and Jonathan Rodden, “Don’t Blame the Maps,” The New York Times, January 24, 2014.
38. Teixeira, “Why Democrats Win the Presidency but Lose the House.”
39. Nicholas Confessore, “A National Strategy Funds State Political Monopolies,” The New York Times, January 11, 2014.
40. Chris Cillizza, “Republicans Have Gained More Than 900 State Legislative Seats Since 2010,” The Washington Post, January 14, 2015.
41. “2014 State and Legislative Partisan Composition,” National Conference of State Legislatures, December 2, 2014; “2010 State and Legislative Partisan Composition Prior to the Election,” National Conference of State Legislatures, November 1, 2010.
42. Florida Department of State Division of Elections, November 4, 2014, general election results; State of Kansas Office of the Secretary of State, 2014 general election official results; North Carolina State Board of Elections 2014 statewide official general election results.
43. Nate Cohn, “The GOP Has Problems with White Voters, Too,” The New Republic, November 12, 2012.
44. Bob Burnett, “Scott Walker: Mobilizing Resentment,” Daily Kos, April 23, 2015.
45. Ron Brownstein, “Bad Bet: Why Republicans Can’t Win with Whites Alone,” The New Republic, September 5, 2013.
46. Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin, “The Political Consequences of the Great Recession,” Center for American Progress, November 6, 2014.
47. Based on 7,004 interviews from national surveys by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps, July 2013–January 2015.
48. Based on combined data from national surveys conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps, 2010–2012.
49. Ibid.
50. Based on 13,197 interviews from national surveys by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps throughout 2012, overall margin of error of ± 3 percent. The actual 2012 election results were within the margin of error. Working class is defined by education as those without a four-year college degree.
51. Based on 13,197 interviews from national surveys by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps in 2012.
52. National survey of 950 likely 2016 voters by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps and Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, January 7–11, 2015.
53. Ben Highton, “A Big Electoral College Advantage for Democrats Is Looming,” The Washington Post, April 28, 2014.
54. Ronald Brownstein, “Playing Their Hand,” National Journal, May 10, 2012.
55. Highton, “A Big Electoral College Advantage for the Democrats Is Looming.”
56. Nate Cohn, “The Swing State Where the GOP Desperately Needs Hispanics,” The New Republic, July 11, 2013.
8 THE END OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY AS WE KNOW IT
1. Based on 7,004 interviews from national surveys by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps, July 2013–January 2015.
2. This is based on findings from the first phase of research for Democracy Corps’ Republican Party Project. We conducted six focus groups among Republican partisans—divided into Evangelicals, Tea Party adherents, and moderates—between July 30 and August 1, 2013. All participants indicated that they voted only or mostly for Republican candidates and were screened on a battery of ideological and political indicators. The groups were conducted in Raleigh, North Carolina (moderate and Tea Party), Roanoke, Virginia (Tea Party and Evangelical), and Colorado Springs, Colorado (moderate and Evangelical).
3. Merrill Knox, “April 2014 Ratings: Fox News Marks 148 Straight Months at No. 1,” Mediabistro.com, April 30, 2014.
4. A factor analysis of Democracy Corps’ June 2013 national survey identified a “homosexuality-traditional-values-pro-life” dimension that explained 8.2 percent of variance in survey responses among Republicans.
9 THE CONSERVATIVE INTERREGNUM
1. Thomas E. Mann and Norman J. Ornstein, It’s Even Worse Than It Looks: How the American Constitutional System Collided with the New Politics of Extremism (New York: Basic Books, 2012), p. 52.
2. Kenneth P. Vogel, “4 GOP Hopefuls Expected to Attend Koch Event,” Politico, January 19, 2015; Nicholas Confessore, “Koch Brothers’ Budget of $889 Million for 2016 Is on Par With Both Parties’ Spending,” The New York Times, January 26, 2015; Nicholas Confessore, “David Koch Signals a Favorite: Scott Walker,” The New York Times, April 20, 2015; Philip Blump, “Scott Walker’s Monday: A Semi-endorsement, Paired with an ‘Olympics-Quality Flip-Flop,’” The Washington Post, April 20, 2015.
3. Mara Liasson, “Political Necessity Forces GOP into Middle-Class Income Debate,” NPR, February 13, 2015; Drew MacKenzie, “
Republicans Putting Forward Own Plans to Aid Middle Class,” Newsmax, January 22, 2015; The Washington Post, July 27, 2015.
4. Catherine Rampell, “Republicans Have Started to Care About Income Inequality,” The Washington Post, January 22, 2015.
5. Jonathan Weisman and Ashley Parker, “Talk of Wealth Gap Prods the G.O.P. to Refocus,” The New York Times, January 21, 2015; Rory Carroll, “Mitt Romney Looks to 2016 Run and Wants to ‘Lift People out of Poverty,’” The Guardian, January 17, 2015; William A. Galston, “When Right and Left Agree on Inequality,” The Wall Street Journal, January 14, 2015; E. J. Dionne, Our Divided Political Heart: The Battle for the American Idea in an Age of Discontent (New York: Bloomsbury, 2012), p. 45.
6. Sam Tanenhaus, “Can the GOP Be a Party of Ideas?,” The New York Times, July 2, 2014; E. J. Dionne, “The Reformicons,” Democracy Journal, Summer 2014.
7. Michael Tomasky, “2016: The Republicans Write,” The New York Review of Books, March 19, 2015.
8. Tanenhaus, “Can the GOP Be a Party of Ideas?”
9. Albert R. Hunt, “The Republican Schism Over Taxes,” Bloomberg View, April 19, 2015; Matt O’Brien, “The New Republican Tax Plan Is Just the Bush Tax Cuts on Steroids” The Washington Post, March 12, 2015; Josh Marro, “Marco Rubio’s Puppies-and-Rainbows Tax Plan,” The New York Times, March 12, 2015.
10. Kimberley A. Strassel, “Searching for Rubio the Reformer,” The Wall Street Journal, April 16, 2015; Ben Kamisar, “Bush Would Overturn Obama’s Executive Actions on Immigration,” The Hill, April 21, 2015.
11. Remarks by Governor Rick Perry of Texas at the CPAC Conference in Washington, D.C., March 7, 2014.
12. Ibid.
13. Luncheon keynote by Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana at the Texas Public Policy Foundation’s Policy Orientation for the Texas Legislature in Austin, Texas, January 9, 2014.
14. Governor Bobby Jindal, “GOP Needs Action, Not Navel-Gazing,” Politico, June 18, 2013.
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