by Doug Wead
Macron had three goals: Persuade Trump to return to the Paris accords, to stick to the Iran nuclear deal, and to return to the Trans-Pacific Partnership. There was no way he could achieve them; it would have meant de-trumping Trump.
My senior administration foreign policy source said that “Macron came in with a lot of excitement and a lot of hope. I think he’s taken on a lot of tough issues domestically, which is what he promised to do. He’s tough, and he’s going to try to ride them out.
“The president’s team can’t figure out why he refuses to reverse some of these policies that we see as no-brainers. Like getting out of the Iran deal. How to reverse that?
“We have not been able to get fully on the same page with him about some of the big foreign policy objectives. Yes, the relationship has been very good. I think there’s a strong chemistry between the two leaders. And I think it’s still very early. They both have more duration. And we’ll see how it goes. There’s a strong foundation from which to work with.
“Macron has the potential to be a great leader for Europe.”32
But Trump made it clear that he was unimpressed with his French counterpart. I asked him how he would describe Macron. And he answered with one word: “Deceitful.”
On June 6, 2019, Trump visited France to join in observances of the seventy-fifth anniversary of the D-day landing in Normandy. This time, the president’s speech was carried live and the whole French nation looked on and appeared deeply moved. Many in the French public learned for the first time that Melania Trump had lived in Paris, that she was fluent in French and could speak five other languages.
Macron, deeply unpopular at home, was more willing to find common ground than he had been during their first meeting, and the relationship was back on track.
BORIS JOHNSON AND THE SLUMBERING GIANT
On May 24, 2019. British prime minister Theresa May stepped to the microphones outside Number 10 Downing Street to announce her resignation. “I will shortly leave the job that has been the honor of my life to hold,” she said.33 The normally stoic prime minister was fighting back tears.
Trump said he felt bad for her. “I like her very much, she is a good woman. She worked very hard.”34
Hours before this drama unfolded, I was interviewing my foreign policy source at the White House, and the subject of Theresa May came up.
“I think she’s got a tough job,” the official said. “I think she’s going through it.”
My source brought up Boris Johnson, the populist UK politician who had served as foreign secretary and mayor of London. Johnson had grown frustrated with the negotiations over Brexit, the British process of leaving the European Union.
“I am increasingly admiring of Donald Trump,” Johnson had said in June 2018. “I have become more and more convinced that there is method in his madness.”35
“Boris Johnson had some great comments about Brexit.” My source laughed, remembering that moment. “Where he said if the president were here, he would be throwing out ideas left and right. And everyone would be going crazy, screaming at each other, but we’d make a deal.
“So Prime Minister May is different from a Boris or a Trump. I think she’s doing it her way. We’re hoping that she’s successful, but she’s in a very, very tough position.
“The relationship between her and Trump is pretty good. And whatever happens in the United Kingdom, we are happy to do a trade deal with them that will help us both, if they get out.
“A big part of the coming state visit is to hopefully show that we’ve been great allies for a long time. We want to continue that, to be their friend, regardless of what they decide with Brexit.”
On July 24, 2019, Boris Johnson became the new prime minister of the United Kingdom. “We are once again going to believe in ourselves, and like some slumbering giant we are going to rise and ping off the guy ropes of self-doubt and negativity,”36 he said upon the announcement.
THE RISE OF MATTEO SALVINI IN ITALY
The Trump administration also saw a potential ally in Italy, where the colorful politician Matteo Salvini emerged. At the height of the Syrian Civil War, Italy was growing frustrated with European neighbors who were welcoming immigrants from the Middle East but expecting them to transit through Italy, where they would be fed and vetted. Hungary promptly shut down its borders. Austria’s citizens overwhelmingly voted in a right-wing government. England, via referendum, voted to leave the European Union, with many of its citizens resolved that their country should not be run by autocrats in Brussels.
Meanwhile, Italy, a Catholic nation with compassion and sensibilities for immigrants was soon on the verge of being overwhelmed by the sheer numbers. It had become the hospital and security clearinghouse for immigrants spreading all across Europe. It was one thing to be hospitable; it was something else for a country to lose one’s culture, language, religion, and nationality.
By the time Trump came to power in the United States, Italy was experiencing even more immigration challenges. While France was perfectly willing to continue to loot the natural resources of its former African colonies, it was refusing to take their impoverished migrants as new French citizens.
While accusing America of being racist for trying to limit entry into the country of hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants from Central America, French diplomats left their own French-speaking African former colonists waiting in Italy.
The desperate migrants traveled from French-speaking African nations across the deserts of Libya, now a stateless nation thanks to Obama’s foreign policy, into Italy, the closest European nation.
In 2018, Italy’s antiestablishment 5 Star Movement party and rightwing League party formed a government, promising to control immigration.37 They did so by closing their ports to rescue ships from non-profit organizations and ending collaboration with other European countries’ humanitarian efforts. These immigration policies were led by Interior Minister Matteo Salvini, whose additional goals were to establish Italian migration centers in Libya to stem the tide of the illegal crossings through the Mediterranean.
Salvini had caught American attention with his “Italians First” message. “This is something that the Trump White House understands,” a friend of the president told me. “He can work with someone who makes his intentions clear.”
THE WAR THAT HASN’T HAPPENED YET
As of early fall 2019, a hot war with Venezuela or Iran is possible. But, three years into his administration, Donald Trump has emerged as the first American president in nearly forty years to avoid involving America in a new war.
During our conversations, Presodent Trump has shown that he is a man of great patience and a willingness to negotiate. He has also shown that, if and when that soft touch fails, he would not hesitate to strike with full and decisive force.
This is a possible outcome for America’s relationship with Iran. Long before taking office, Trump marveled at the American government’s self-deception about this hostile country. Obama’s solution had been to deliver to Tehran $1.7 billion in cash, on pallets in the night, like illicit drug money. Cash. So no future American president or Congress could halt bank transfers and undo the deal.38
Most critical of all, Iran was granted the right to eventually build a nuclear bomb.39
As the crisis with Iran has moved into each new critical phase, Trump, through his restraint and wisdom, has surprised critics. In July 2019, Iranian forces shot down an American drone. They seized British ships. They arrested what they claimed were seventeen American CIA spies and sentenced some of these alleged agents to death. Trump countered the report of the agents as totally false.40 He held his fire.
The apparent objective of the Iranian government was to force a breach between the United States and its European allies. But Trump’s steady, restrained reactions have given him a heavy hammer to wield when he is ready. Panicked critics say that Iran has the power to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, affecting oil shipments from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, the Uni
ted Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Iran itself. Almost 26 percent of the world’s liquefied natural gas volumes passed through the strait in 2018.41 But if Iran were to do that, Trump’s defenders say, it would only further enrich the United States, which is now energy independent.
“Iran doesn’t know where they are,” President Trump said. “They are a very mixed-up country. Their country is in turmoil…. Whatever it is, I’m just going to sit back and watch.” Then he added, “We’re ready for the absolute worst.”42
NOTES
1. https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/233771/obama-and-elizabeth-warrens-big-lie-about-student-daniel-greenfield
2. https://www.harvard.edu/about-harvard/harvard-glance/endowment
3. https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/3007589/Nationalsecurityletter.pdf
4. https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/foreign-policy-trump-critics-successes/
5. https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/05/trump-foreign-policy-afghanistan-1145766
6. https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/05/trump-foreign-policy-afghanistan-1145766
7. https://video.foxbusiness.com/v/5808198024001/#sp=show-clips
8. https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/04/03/making-nato-stronger-again-alliance-chief-says-trumps-message-having-real-impact/
9. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/24/us/politics/trump-japan-abe-flattery.html
10. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/11/08/on-the-golf-course-japans-abe-did-a-ninja-stunt-and-trump-didnt-even-notice/
11. Interview with high administration source, 2019.
12. https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-playboy-interview-trade-foreign-policy-japan-2017-2
13. https://www.thebalance.com/trade-deficit-by-county-3306264
14. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/05/26/trumps-japan-trip-sumo-hibachi-north-korea-small-missiles/1243938001/
15. High administration source, May 2019.
16. https://mashable.com/2017/11/09/arabella-china-video-xi/
17. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/apr/12/trump-xi-jinping-chocolate-cake-syria-strikes
18. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-merkel/story?id=46198767
19. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-merkel/story?id=46198767
20. https://www.bustle.com/p/angela-merkel-prepared-to-meet-trump-for-the-first-time-by-reportedly-watching-the-apprentice-15539293
21. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/324536-trump-jokes-that-he-and-merkel-were-both-wiretapped-by-obama
22. https://thepoliticalinsider.com/hillarys-campaign-chair-admits-trump-obama-wiretap/
23. Interview with top administration source, May 2019.
24. https://www.politico.eu/article/german-chancellor-angela-merkel-takes-aim-at-donald-trump-in-harvard-tear-down-walls-speech/
25. Interview with top administration source, May 2019.
26. https://www.politico.eu/article/mike-pompeo-hits-berlin-for-make-up-talks-with-chancellor-angela-merkel/
27. Interview with top administration source, May 2019.
28. Interview with Jared Kushner, May 2019.
29. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/is-trumps-friend-jim-who-no-longer-goes-to-paris-real/
30. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4693482/First-Ladies-Brigitte-Macron-Melania-Trump-meet.html
31. https://downtrend.com/71superb/how-come-it-wasnt-fascist-when-chuck-schumer-wanted-a-military-parade/
32. Interview with high administration official, May 2019.
33. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-may/brexit-brings-down-may-johnson-stakes-leadership-claim-idUSKCN1SU0UF
34. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-may/brexit-brings-down-may-johnson-stakes-leadership-claim-idUSKCN1SU0UF
35. https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-boris-johnson-donald-trump-all-sorts-of-chaos-says/
36. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49084605
37. https://www.corriere.it/elezioni-2018/notizie/elezioni-2018-exit-poll-risultati-proiezioni-spoglio-eb21387e-1ff1-11e8-a09a-92b478235f6f.shtml
38. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/03/01/was-obamas-1-7-billion-cash-deal-with-iran-prohibited-by-u-s-law/
39. https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/09/22/iran-nuclear-deal-bomb-215636
40. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1153290669424807936
41. https://www.forbes.com/sites/daneberhart/2019/07/22/trump-has-put-iran-in-a-corner-now-what/#184ebc2c7875
42. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/07/22/trump-denies-iran-claim-capturing-american-spies/1793490001/
17
THE MONROE DOCTRINE REVISITED
“We’re going to have a real border, because we’re going to have a wall.”
—DONALD TRUMP1
The Monroe Doctrine of 1823, which, among other things, prohibited any further colonization in the Western Hemisphere by European nations, is America’s most enduring foreign policy position. Mostly written by John Quincy Adams, then the secretary of state to President James Monroe, it committed the will of the United States to protecting the new nations of North and South America.
Presidents since have leveraged the policy to keep everybody out of the Western Hemisphere. And the policy has been vigorously invoked by American presidents as justification for military actions.
The doctrine all but atrophied under presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama. The former was arguably bankrupting the nation for a war in Iraq while the latter was committed to empowering Cuba and normalizing relations with that Communist country.
With great gusto, President Donald Trump has jumped back into Latin American issues with both feet. While it is unlikely that he will see the full manifestation of his Latin American policies while he is still president, his obvious objective in the region is to stymie the spread of radical socialism that flourished during the Obama presidency and to counter Cuban-sponsored repression in the region. He clearly is committed to blocking the initiatives and activities of the so-called troika of tyranny: Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela.
In the most recent episode of saber rattling, Cuba put boots on the ground in Venezuela. There were reports that Cuban-trained mercenaries were serving as personal bodyguards to Nicolás Maduro, the socialist dictator of that country who knew he couldn’t trust his own countrymen to protect him.2
There was another great irony playing out in this story. Russia was propping up Maduro. In December, 2018, Russia sent two Tu-160 bombers, nuclear-capable jets, to Venezuela.3 In March 2019, it sent military advisers to the country.4
In addition to the blatant violation of the Monroe Doctrine, Russia’s military presence created a bizarre juxtaposition. On the one hand, the Democrats and the American media were insisting that Donald Trump was colluding with Russia. On the one hand, they claimed that he was a Russian spy, and on the other hand, they left him unsupported in invoking the Monroe Doctrine to keep the Russians out of the Western Hemisphere.
Some Democrats who were advocating socialism for the United States were embarrassed by the broad failure of the socialist economy in Venezuela. Senator Bernie Sanders, a Democratic presidential candidate, refused to call Maduro a dictator, insisting on CNN that there were “still democratic operations taking place in their country.”5
President Trump’s strategy on Venezuela called for rallying the Organization of American States (OAS) and getting it to actively vote against Venezuelan human rights abuses.
I was in the middle of an interview with President Trump when he was interrupted by a call. “Sorry,” he said. “Working on Argentina now. That’s my new project.” Trump’s calls to and from Latin America were part of an ongoing effort. He would eventually organize forty-three nations of the world in support of Juan Guaidó, the opposition leader in Venezuela, who human rights activists insisted should be legally recognized.6
There was also an economic component, a hallmark of Trump foreign policy. He never misses a chance to use mo
ney to strengthen his case. Since 1996, US presidents had waived enactment of Title III of the Helms-Burton Act, but now Trump put it back into play..7 Trump’s decision not to waive Title III allowed lawsuits against companies that used property that had been confiscated by the Communist government of Cuba.
Would it work? There were just enough unknowns to discourage some foreign investment. The foreign policy of Donald Trump always had a bite. In this case, the message to Cuba was clear: Get out of Venezuela, stop trying to export Communism to Latin America, or the economic squeeze would get worse.
TRUMP AND MEXICO
During the months I worked on this book I was able to connect with Luis Videgaray, the former foreign minister of Mexico. My sources at the White House told me that he didn’t give interviews, but with the president giving the green light to my project I was able to touch base with him during one of his short visits to Washington, DC.
Videgaray could tell me the whole, secret back story on Trump’s private, ongoing relations with Mexico. He could also reverse-engineer the dismantling of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and how it had morphed into the United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA). This new agreement was a clear win for all three countries—if Congress would approve it.
“I left office back in November 2018,” Videgaray told me. “And since then [I] went completely private. I’ve had no interviews with any media in Mexico or abroad. So this is the first time I’ve done anything like this.”8
There were so many questions Videgaray could help with. What did the presidency of Donald Trump mean to Latin America? What did it mean to Mexico? What did he think about immigration? About NAFTA?