The Brexit referendum results were followed a few months later by the election of Donald Trump as the forty-fifth President of the United States (POTUS).
I was able to read the writing on the wall. Donald Trump beat sixteen other Republican candidates and two Democrats, each with far more governance experience and better credentials than him, to the top job. What explains this phenomenon? While a number of factors can be cited, the most fundamental one, clearly overlooked by the other candidates— the angst of the white, working class American who felt disadvantaged as a result of globalization. Trump was able to build a narrative that struck a chord with them. He made them believe that under President Obama, their interests had either been ignored or short-changed. A Hillary Clinton presidency was projected as an Obama 3.0 narrative. Trump instead emphasized the need for someone who spoke like them. This is not to suggest the Democrats did not make mistakes or that there were no external factors at play—Hillary Clinton paid a huge price for calling large sections of the American population deplorable. The revelations by former FBI director Comey too played their part.
It was perhaps a given that a Trump presidency would be unconventional. A number of decisions he has taken—including the nuclear deal with Korea, pulling out of the Iran Nuclear Deal and the Paris climate agreement—stand out. However, the allegations regarding his dealings with Russia, both during the campaign and the presidency, are striking and most crucial to his presidency. Impeaching a President is never easy, and Trump will most likely avoid that fate. He will, however, be indicted for acts of omission/commission prior to the elections, and perhaps be charged for obstruction of justice during his tenure. The Russia problem is not one that will easily go away and will continue to cast a shadow throughout the duration of his term in office.
I would like to conclude by stating what I believe has now become self-evident—the results of the 2014 general election in India brought with them a paradigmatic shift in the country’s politics and economic governance. I make this claim for two reasons—first, the ten years of the Congress-led UPA governments brought India to a standstill. Corruption, economic mismanagement and lethargy in international affairs characterized those years, particularly the last four. The party that played a pivotal role in ensuring India’s freedom has been reduced to a fiefdom, headed by the Gandhi family. India was crying out for a second independence. The results in May 2014 and the state assembly elections over the past four years only proved this point. By winning just forty-four seats in the Lok Sabha in 2014 and thereby not being able to have one of its leaders elected as the leader of opposition, the grand old party of India faces serious existential questions. Any suggestion that Congress’s victories in three Hindi heartland states in December 2018 erases this existential threat needs to be examined. In all three states, the BJP was the incumbent, and yet, in two of these states, the Congress barely managed to scrape through. In Madhya Pradesh, for instance, the BJP was the incumbent for fifteen years, and still managed to receive a slightly higher vote share (41 per cent) than the Congress (40.9 per cent). In fact, the Congress by itself did not even reach the halfway mark, and needed the support of the BSP to form a government. The suggestion therefore that the phoenix has risen from the ashes could still be premature.
The year 2014 also provided, in several respects, India the last chance to reform the structural inefficiencies of its economy. The overwhelming nature of the verdict meant Prime Minister Modi’s government was able to deliver what all Indians wanted i.e. basic goods and services. Programmes like Swachh Bharat Mission, which seeks to make India open defecation free and provide 100 per cent waste management; Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, or Affordable Housing for All, wherein the PM has promised that every Indian will have a home they can call theirs; Jan Dhan Yojana, which is perhaps the world’s largest financial inclusion programme; Goods and Services Tax and the Insolvency Bankruptcy Code, which have made doing business in India easier; and the GiveItUp scheme, where households have been encouraged to voluntarily give up subsidies, are just some of the achievements of the Modi government I point out in the book. I have no qualms in predicting that these measures will hold the BJP in good stead going into the general election in 2019. There is widespread acknowledgement among India’s citizens that the days of khichdi politics are over, and the proposed ‘mahagathbandan’ or a grand coalition is nothing more than an alliance of opportunists.
According to Cambridge historian Angus Maddison, India’s contribution to global output in 1700 stood at 27 per cent. By 1950, this had come down to 3 per cent, and today stands at approximately 13 per cent. The advent of imperialism, followed by sixty-odd years of Congress rule meant India was never able to reclaim its rightful place as one of the world’s leading economies. Under PM Modi, India is poised to become a $5 trillion economy by 2025, and a $10 trillion one by 2030. This increase in GDP, along with substantial increase in per capita income, requires stability at the very top of the decision-making system.
India needs another ten years of PM Modi to reattain its pre-colonial economic strength. It is well on its way to regaining its rightful place in the universe.
Notes
The Setting
1. Suhasini Haidar, ‘Trump Makes Sense to a Grocery Store Owner’, The Hindu, 29 January 2017, http://www.thehindu.com/books/%E2%80%98Trump-makes-sense-to-a-grocery-store-owner%E2%80%99/article17109351.ece.
2. The remarks were made at a private meeting at the Club de Madrid. The South Asian PM was Jigme Yoezer Thinley, Prime Minister of Bhutan (2008–13), http://nextgenerationdemocracy.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Z-Program-NGD-Asia-Oceania-DILI-July-2607.pdf.
3. Perry Bacon Jr. and Dhrumil Mehta, ‘Republicans Are Coming Home To Trump’, FiveThirtyEight, 16 February 2018, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-are-coming-home-to-trump/.
4. Nida Najar, ‘A Conversation with: Author Sanjaya Baru’, India.Blogs.Nytimes.com, 16 April 2014, https://india.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/04/16/a-conversation-with-author-sanjaya-baru/.
5. Arun Jaitley, a senior lawyer, played a critical role in the BJP’s 2014 election campaign. One of India’s leading political strategists, he has been in active politics for over forty-five years, starting out as a student leader in the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP) during his Delhi University days. He went on to become the president of Delhi University Students Union in 1974, and during the dark days of the 1975 Emergency, he was one of the most prominent voices in the Opposition. Post the electoral victory in 2014, he was named the leader of the house, Rajya Sabha, and was sworn in as the finance minister on 26 May 2014.
6. Press Trust of India, ‘Modi’s Elevation a “Winning Decision”: Jaitley’, The Hindu, 15 September 2013, http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/modis-elevation-a-winning-decision-jaitley/article5130333.ece.
7. Election Commission of India, General Elections, 2014 (16th Lok Sabha), http://eci.nic.in/eci_main/archiveofge2014/20%20-%20Performance%20of%20National%20Parties.pdf.
8. The statement was made by Mani Shankar Aiyar on 16 January 2014, when he stated, ‘There is no way he can be Prime Minister in the 21st century . . . but if he wants to come and distribute tea here we can make some room for him.’ Amit Chaturvedi, ‘Won’t Apologize for Inviting Narendra Modi to Sell Tea: Mani Shankar Aiyar’, NDTV, 17 January 2014, https://www.ndtv.com/elections-news/wont-apologise-for-inviting-narendra-modi-to-sell-tea-mani-shankar-aiyar-548095.
9. Shyam Saran, ‘Of China, Terror and US Trade: Why Hillary Will Be a Safe Bet for India’, Hindustan Times, 7 September 2016, https://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis/on-policy-terror-and-trade-india-can-gain-from-a-second-clinton-era/story-LQPgXCbGskI5DZ6FmAFxLI.html.
10. Editorial, ‘Donald Trump’s Revolt’, New York Times, 9 November 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/09/opinion/donald-trumps-revolt.html.
Introduction
1. From the Archive, ‘Nepal’s Crown Prince Murders Royal Family’, Guardian, 2 June 2001, https://www.theguardian.com/books/2009
/jun/02/archive-nepal-crown-prince.
2. PRI’s The World, ‘Why Nepal’s Crown Prince Went on a Killing Spree’, PRI, 1 June 2011, https://www.pri.org/stories/2011-06-01/why-nepals-crown-prince-went-killing-spree.
3. Antoine Harari and Matteo Maillard, ‘A President’s Downfall, Nepotism And A Ghost Town In Sri Lanka’, WorldCrunch, 16 March 2017, https://www.worldcrunch.com/world-affairs/a-presidents-downfall-nepotism-and-a-ghost-town-in-sri-lanka.
4. Wade Shepard, ‘Sri Lanka’s Debt Crisis Is So Bad the Government Doesn’t Even Know How Much Money It Owes’, Forbes, 30 September 2016, https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2016/09/30/sri-lankas-debt-crisis-is-so-bad-the-government-doesnt-even-know-how-much-money-it-owes/#78ed20c94608.
5. James Tarabay, ‘With Sri Lankan Port Acquisition, China Adds Another “Pearl” to Its “String”’, CNN, 5 February 2018, https://edition.cnn.com/2018/02/03/asia/china-sri-lanka-string-of-pearls-intl/index.html.
6. Khurram Husain, ‘Exclusive: CPEC Master Plan Revealed’, Dawn, 21 June 2017, https://www.dawn.com/news/1333101.
7. Norman Ohler, Blitzed, Drugs in the Third Reich (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017), translated from German by Shaun Whiteside, p. 292.
Chapter 1: The Credibility Crisis
1. Helen Thomas was an influential American journalist. She was the first female member of the White House Press Corps, the first female chief White House correspondent of the United Press International, and the first female president of the White House Correspondents’ Association. Thomas died in 2013. She was often called ‘the First Lady of the Press’.
2. ‘The Post-Truth World: Yes, I’d Lie to You’, The Economist, 10 September 2016, https://www.economist.com/briefing/2016/09/10/yes-id-lie-to-you.
3. Ibid.
4. Oxford Dictionary, ‘Word of the Year 2016 Is…’
5. Collins Dictionary, ‘Definition of Fake News’.
6. Ralph Keyes, The Post-Truth Era: Dishonesty and Deception in Contemporary Life (New York: St Martin’s Press, 2004), p.14.
7. Lynn Vavreck, ‘Why This Election Was Not About the Issues’, New York Times, 23 November 2016.
8. Ralph Keyes, The Post-Truth Era: Dishonesty and Deception in Contemporary Life (New York: St Martin’s Press, 2004).
9. Edward Hallett Carr, What Is History? (Basic Books, 2009).
10. Shaul R. Shenhav, ‘Political Narratives and Political Reality’, International Political Science Review, Vol. 27, No. 3, July 2006, p. 248.
11. William Davies, ‘The Age of Post-Truth Politics’, New York Times, 24 August 2016.
12. UK Statistics Authority, ‘UK Statistics Authority Statement on the Use of Official Statistics on Contributions to the European Union’, 27 May 2016.
13. Jon Henley, ‘Why Vote Leave’s £350m Weekly EU Cost Claim Is Wrong’, Guardian, 10 June 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/reality-check/2016/may/23/does-the-eu-really-cost-the-uk-350m-a-week.
14. Linda Qiu, ‘Fact-Checking President Trump through His First 100 Days’, New York Times, 27 April 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/29/us/politics/fact-checking-president-trump-through-his-first-100-days.html.
15. Ralph Keyes, The Post-Truth Era: Dishonesty and Deception in Contemporary Life (New York: St Martin’s Press, 2004), p. 15.
16. Ralph Keyes, The Post-Truth Era: Dishonesty and Deception in Contemporary Life (New York: St Martin’s Press, 2004), p. 13.
17. Charlie Cooper, ‘EU Referendum: Immigration and Brexit—What Lies Have Been Spread?’, Independent, 20 June 2016.
18. ‘Post-Truth Politics: Art of the Lie’, The Economist, 10 September 2016, https://www.economist.com/leaders/2016/09/10/art-of-the-lie.
19. Amy Mitchell, Jeffrey Gottfried, Jocelyn Kiley and Katerina Eva Matsa, ‘Political Polarization & Media Habits’, Pew Research Center, 21 October 2014, http://www.journalism.org/2014/10/21/political-polarization-media-habits/.
20. Elisa Shearer and Jeffrey Gottfried. ‘News Use Across Social Media Platforms 2017’, Pew Research Center, 7 September 2017, http://www.journalism.org/2017/09/07/news-use-across-social-media-platforms-2017/.
21. Election Commission of India, ‘Poll Dates of 14 Lok Sabha Elections’, http://eci.nic.in/eci_main1/poll_dates_of_loksabha_elc.aspx.
22. Hilary Osborne, ‘What Is Cambridge Analytica? The Firm at the Centre of Facebook’s Data Breach’, Guardian, 18 March 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/mar/18/what-is-cambridge-analytica-firm-at-centre-of-facebook-data-breach.
23. Heather Timmons, ‘If Cambridge Analytica Is So Smart, Why Isn’t Ted Cruz President?’ Quartz, 21 March 2018, https://qz.com/1234364/cambridge-analytica-worked-for-mercer-backed-ted-cruz-before-trump/.
24. Carole Cadwalladr, ‘Robert Mercer: The Big Data Billionaire Waging War on Mainstream Media’, Guardian, 26 February 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/26/robert-mercer-breitbart-war-on-media-steve-bannon-donald-trump-nigel-farage.
25. Carole Cadwalladr, ‘The Great British Brexit Robbery: How Our Democracy Was Hijacked’, Guardian, 7 May 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/may/07/the-great-british-brexit-robbery-hijacked-democracy.
Chapter 2: Brexit
1. David Cameron, Resignation Speech, 24 June 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/25/world/europe/david-cameron-speech-transcript.html.
2. Kim Janssen, ‘Fateful O’Hare Airport Pizza Meeting Sealed Brexit Vote Deal: British Media’, Chicago Tribune, 24 June 2016, http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chicagoinc/ct-brexit-ohare-pizza-20160624-story.html.
3. Nicholas Watt, ‘David Cameron Rocked by Record Rebellion as Europe Splits Tories Again’, Guardian, 24 October 2011, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2011/oct/24/david-cameron-tory-rebellion-europe.
4. Ewa Jasiewicz, ‘Ukip’s Success Lies in Talking to Workers—but Not about Class. We Can Do Better’, Guardian, 29 May 2014, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/29/ukip-workers-class-identity-race-immigration.
5. David Cameron, ‘EU Speech at Bloomberg’, Speech, 23 January 2013.
6. Pierre Haski, ‘All Eyes on Her’, Vice News, 23 April 2017, https://news.vice.com/en_us/article/zmy7dy/the-rise-and-fall-and-possible-rise-again-of-marine-le-pen-frances-answer-to-donald-trump.
7. ‘What Geert Wilders’s Poor Showing Means for Marine Le Pen’, The Economist, 18 March 2017, https://www.economist.com/leaders/2017/03/18/what-geert-wilderss-poor-showing-means-for-marine-le-pen.
8. Oliver Wright, ‘The Speech that Was the Start of the End of David Cameron’, Independent, 24 June 2016, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-referendum-david-cameron-resignation-announcement-2013-a7101281.html.
9. Ewen MacAskill and Lawrence Donegan, ‘Scots Vote for Their Own Parliament’, Guardian, 13 September 2013, https://www.theguardian.com/theguardian/2013/sep/13/scotland-devolution-referendum-victory.
10. Claire Phipps, ‘Scottish Independence: A Guide to the Referendum to Break Away from the UK’, Guardian, 10 September 2014, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/10/scottish-independence-guide-referendum-uk-yes-no.
11. Ibid.
12. Ibid.
13. Libby Brooks, Severin Carrell and the Guardian interactive team, ‘Scottish Independence: Everything You Need to Know About the Vote’, Guardian, 9 September 2014, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/09/-sp-scottish-independence-everything-you-need-to-know-vote.
14. Libby Brooks, ‘Scottish Referendum: Magnitude of the Question Galvanizes Debate’, Guardian, 8 June 2014, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/08/scottish-independence-referendum-galvanises-debate.
15. Douglas Fraser, ‘Study Examines Referendum Demographics’, BBC.com, 18 September 2015, http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-34283948.
16. ‘A Divided Britain? Inequality within and between the Regions’, The Equality Trust, July 2014, https://www.equalitytrust.org.uk/divided-britain-inequality-within-and-between-regions-0.
17. Nicola Woolcock, ‘St Andrews Inequality Cri
ticized in New Rankings for Diversity, The Times, 5 April 2018, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/st-andrews-inequality-criticised-52jlj5zjf.
18. Alex Salmond: 12 April 2014 Speech to SNP Conference, http://www.ukpol.co.uk/alex-salmond-2014-speech-to-snp-conference/.
19. William Dalrymple, ‘The East India Company: The Original Corporate Raiders’, Guardian, 4 March 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/04/east-india-company-original-corporate-raiders.
20. ‘31 December 1600: Charter Granted to the East India Company’, History.com, https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/charter-granted-to-the-east-india-company.
21. Ibid.
22. Ainslie Embree, ‘British East India Company Raj’, Encyclopedia of India, ed. Stanley Wolpert, Vol. 1, 2006.
23. William Dalrymple, ‘The East India Company: The Original Raiders’, Guardian, 4 March 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/04/east-india-company-original-corporate-raiders.
24. Ibid.
25. ‘British Empire’, New World Encyclopedia, http://www.newworldencyclopedia.org/entry/British_Empire#The_impact_of_the_First_World_War.
26. ‘Atlantic Charter’, Encyclopedia Britannica, https://www.britannica.com/event/Atlantic-Charter.
27. ‘Yalta Conference’, History.com, https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-ii/yalta-conference.
28. Council on Foreign Relations: The UN Security Council, Cfr.org, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/un-security-council.
29. Jeremy Rifkin, The European Dream: How Europe’s Vision of the Future is Quietly Eclipsing the American Dream (New York: TarcherPerigee, 2005).
30. Harold Macmillan, ‘Britons Have Never Had It So Good’, Speech, 1957.
31. Stephen Nickell and John Van Reenen, ‘Technological Innovation and Economic Performance in the United Kingdom’, April 2001, http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp0488.pdf.
32. Alan Travis, ‘Ministers Saw Law’s “Racism” As Defensible’, Guardian, 1 January 2002, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2002/jan/01/uk.race.
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