by Paul Scharre
Heaton, Jeff, 132
Her (film), 235
Herr, Andrew, 232
heuristics, 239–40
Heyns, Christof, 287–89, 295
hierarchical coordination, 19, 20f
high-frequency trading, 199, 201–2; see also automated stock trading
high-reliability organizations, 161, 170–72, 176–78
High-speed Anti-Radiation Missile (HARM), 47–48, 47f, 353
“Highway of Death,” 279
Hiroshima, 279
Holocaust, 340
homing munitions, 41, 42
Horowitz, Michael, 265, 302, 303, 312
hors de combat, 252, 258–61
Hui, Fan, 126
human-assisted automated weapons, see centaur warfighters
human–automation failure, 159
human dignity, 287–90
human judgment
and attacks, 270
and autonomous weapons, 80–81
and crisis stability, 305–6
and DoD Directive 3000.09, 75, 90–95
and laws of war, 357–59
to reduce risk in autonomous systems, 147–49
and SDI, 309–10
and Taranis drone, 109
treaty language about, 357–59
human-machine hybrid cognitive systems, see centaur warfighters
human-machine relationship
and CODE, 73
as dimension of autonomy, 28–30
and future of AI, 244
and Samsung SGR-A1 robot, 104–5
Human Rights Watch, 252, 282
humans
and laws of war, 270
as moral agent and fail-safe, 323–25
and “unmanned aircraft,” 16
human-supervised weapons systems, 147
Hussein, Saddam, 7, 340
Hutus, 288
hybrid human-machine cognitive systems, see centaur warfighters
I, Robot (film), 27
IBM Jeopardy! Challenge, 146–47
ICRAC (International Committee for Robot Arms Control), 285
ICRC (International Committee of the Red Cross), 269–70
identification friend or foe (IFF) signal, 138, 139, 144, 379n
IEDs (improvised explosive devices), 14
IEEE-RAS Technical Committee on Roboethics, 280–81
IEEE Spectrum, 104–5
IFF signal, see identification friend or foe signal
“I Have No Mouth and I Must Scream” (Ellison), 234
IHL, see international humanitarian law
ImageNet dataset, 129
improvised explosive devices (IEDs), 14
Inception-v3 neural network, 129
incomprehensibility of complex systems, 153–54
indoor flight/reconnaissance, 68–71, 121–24
inertial measurement unit (IMU), 123
inertial navigation, 42
information technology, see cyberwarfare
INF (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces) Treaty, 301
Innocent II (pope), 331
intelligence
autonomy and, 28–33, 50
spectrum of, 31f
“intelligence explosion,” 233
intelligent machines, rise of, 231–48; see also advanced artificial intelligence; artificial general intelligence
Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, 301
International Committee for Robot Arms Control (ICRAC), 285
International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), 269–70
International Court of Justice, 262
international humanitarian law (IHL)
and autonomous weapons bans, 348
core principles, 251–52
and human dignity, 295
human judgment and, 358–59
Martens clause, 263–66
precautions in attack, 258
principle of distinction, 252–55
principle of proportionality, 255–57
and rogue states, 268–69
unnecessary suffering, 257–58
internecine wars, 288
Internet of Things (IoT), 219–20
Internet Worm (1988), 212, 225
Introduction to Artificial Intelligence, 245
introspective systems, 226
Iran
cyberattacks by, 213
RQ-170 drone incident, 209
Stuxnet attack on nuclear facilities, 214
swarming of U.S. ships, 22, 107
U.S. military and, 207
Iran Air Flight 655, 169–70, 262
Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988), 169–70
Iraq War (1991), see Gulf War
Iraq War (2003–2011)
chemical weapons and, 340
distinguishing soldiers from civilians, 253–55
drones in, 14, 25
electromagnetic environment, 15
Patriot missile fratricides, 137–43, 160, 192, 278; see also Patriot missile system
Israel
ground robots, 5, 102
Harpy drone, 5, 47–48, 47f, 52, 55, 117, 353
robotic boat, 102–3
Trophy system, 92
Israel Defense Forces, 92
Japan
Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant disaster, 154–55
Japan (continued)
poison gas use in WWII, 340
Senkaku Islands incident, 208
U.S. bombing campaigns in WWII, 279, 282
JASON, 186, 187
Java, 131
Jennings, Ken, 146
Jeopardy! Challenge, 146–47
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, 235
Johnson, Lyndon, 389n
Joint Unmanned Combat Air Systems (J-UCAS), 60–61
Just and Unjust Wars (Waltzer), 273
“just war,” 294
Kahn, Herman, 311
Kalashnikov, 116, 124
Kasparov, Gary, 150, 321–22, 380n–381n
Kelly, Kevin, 5
Kendall, Frank, 90–93, 120–21
Kennedy, John F., 317
Kennedy, William, 155–56, 178
Khalitov, Vyacheslav, 116
Khmer Rouge, 288
Khrushchev, Nikita, 307, 317–18
kill box, 106–8
kill switches, 202, 230
Knight Capital Group, 201–2
Korea, see North Korea; South Korea
Kosovo, U.S. air campaign over, 322–23
Kubrick, Stanley, 312
Kumar, Vijay, 70
Kuwait, 169
land mines
and arms control, 267, 331–32, 342
CCW regulations, 268
humanitarian consequences, 50–51
and public conscience, 265–66
unbounded autonomy of, 270
Jody Williams’s campaign to ban, 271
Lawrence, Peter, 205
laws of war, 251–70
accountability gap and, 258–63
autonomous weapons and, 282–83
core principles, 251–52
debates over restriction/banning of autonomous weapons, 266–69
and dictates of public conscience, 263–66
hors de combat, 258–61
legal status of humans vs. machines, 269–70
need for human judgment’s place in, 357–59
precautions in attack, 258
principle of distinction, 252–55
principle of proportionality, 255–57
and unnecessary suffering, 257–58
learning systems, see deep learning neural networks
Ledé, Jean-Charles, 72
Lee, Daniel, 70
LeMay, Curtis, 279, 296
lethal autonomy; see also autonomous weapons
debate over, 6–8
DoD policy, 25, 95
liability, autonomous weapons and, 258–59
LIDAR (light detection and ranging), 121, 122
Lieber Code, 259
life-and-death choices, 2–8
limited weapons bans, 342
Limits of Safety (Sagan), 174–75
Lin, Patrick, 223
LOCAAS (Low Cost Autonomous Attack System), 49
Lockheed Martin, 63
Loew ben Bezalel, Rabbi Judah, 234
loitering munitions, 46–47, 97–98, 354
London Blitz, 342
Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM), 62–68, 66f–67f, 353
loosely coupled systems, 152
low probability of intercept/low probability of detection (LPI/LPD), 72–73
M2 .50 caliber heavy machine gun (ma deuce), 38
M249 SAW light machine gun, 191
machine guns, 37–38, 190–91, 276–77, 299
machine intelligence, 231; see also intelligent machines
MAD (mutual assured destruction), 314, 315
“mad robot theory,” 315–16
Main, Kevin, 138, 139
Making of a Fly (Lawrence), 205
mal en se, 285
malware, 211–13, 225, 246–47
management by exception/management by consent, 404n
Marine warfare Continuous Trail Unmanned Vessel ACTUV (anti-sub), 78–79
Marrison, Clive, 109
MARS (A800 Mobile Autonomous Robotic System), 114
MARS (Mobile Autonomous Robotic System), 114
Marshall, Andy, 94
Marshall, S. L. A., 275
Martens Clause, 263–66, 351
Matrix trilogy, 134
Maxim gun, 37, 38
Mayhem system, 217–23, 226
McGrath, Bryan, 53–54
McNamara, Robert, 279, 310–11, 348, 389n
meaning, failure of autonomous weapons to interpret, 6; see also context
meaningful human control, 68, 347, 352, 358
mercy, in war, 273–74, 403n
Merkava tank, 92
Messinger, Eric, 224
Micire, Mark, 69
Microsoft, 87
military necessity, 348
millimeter-wave (MMW) radar seeker, 106–8
mines, see land mines
Minot Air Force Base, 174
missile(s), 40–41, 54, 114–15, 139, 141–43; see also specific missiles, e.g.: Tomahawk
missile defense shields, 300
missile launch false alarm (1983), 1–2
Mk 60 CAPTOR encapsulated torpedo mine, 51
MMW (millimeter-wave) radar seeker, 106–8
Mobile Autonomous Robotic System (MARS), 114
mobile autonomous weapons, 353, 354
Montgomery, USS, 169
“moral buffer,” 277
moral injury, 290
morality, see ethics
MQ-25 Stingray tanker drone, 60–62
MRK-002-BG-57 “Wolf-2,” 114
Musk, Elon, 154, 232, 246
mutual assured destruction (MAD), 314, 315
Nagasaki, 279
narrow AI, 95–99, 127, 231, 241–43
NASDAQ, 199, 202, 204
Natanz, Iran, nuclear facility, 214
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), 76, 154, 235
National Defense Authorization Act (1988–1989), 309–10
NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), 115
Naval Postgraduate School, 11–13, 18
Navy, U.S.
Aegis combat system, see Aegis combat system
cultural resistance to robotic weapons, 61–62
Fire Scout Drone, 209
high-reliability organizations within, 161–62
MQ-25 Stingray drone, 60
robot boat experiments, 22–23
Sea Hunter, 79
TASM, 49
Vincennes incident, 169–70, 177, 262
X-47B experimental drone, 17
near-miss accidents (false alarms), 1–2, 173–75, 299, 311, 314
Nest thermostat, 33–34, 158
networking, 54–56
neural networks, see deep learning neural networks
neutron bomb, 301–2, 407n
New Orleans, Battle of (1815), 304
New York Stock Exchange, 200, 202; see also “Flash Crash”
NGOs (nongovernmental organizations), 7, 348–50
Nintendo, 239
Nixon, Richard M., 315
“no cities” nuclear doctrine, 348
non-cooperative targets, 85
nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), 7, 348–50
non-lethal, nonkinetic autonomous weapons, 89
nonproliferation regimes, bans vs., 349
non-state groups, drone use by, 102
NORAD (North American Aerospace Defense Command), 173
Normal Accidents (Perrow), 174–75
“normal accidents,” 150–54, 159–60
North Korea, 105, 208, 260
Norway, 173
nuclear false alarms, 299
nuclear missile launch false alarm (1983), 1–2
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, 340
nuclear power, 151–55, 176–77
nuclear weapons; see also Cuban Missile Crisis
and arms control, 332, 340
Hiroshima and Nagasaki, 279
missile launch false alarm (1983), 1–2
and near-miss accidents, 173–75
and stability, 298–302
offense-dominant regime, 299–300
Office of Naval Research (ONR), 22, 100, 235
Office of Personnel Management (OPM), 212
Office of the Secretary of Defense, 7, 25
offset strategies, 59
Ohio-class submarines, 173
Oko (Soviet missile alert system), 1–2, 314
Omohundro, Steve, 63, 237–38, 240
On Killing (Grossman), 275
ONR, see Office of Naval Research
OODA (observe, orient, decide, act)
basics, 23–24
for Patriot missile system, 142f
weapon system loop, 43
Operation Desert Storm, see Gulf War (1991)
Operation Iraqi Freedom, 160; see also Iraq War (2003–2011)
OPM (Office of Personnel Management), 212
optical flow, 122–23
Ottawa Treaty, 51, 268
Outer Space Treaty (1967), 301, 344
PAC-3 missile, 143
Pascal Visual Object Classes database, 129
passive sensors, 41, 113
patches, 217–22, 226
Patriot missile system, 140f
Aegis system vs., 165–66, 171–72, 175–76
assessment study, 143–45, 147, 159–60
and automation bias, 170, 278–79, 324–25
automation philosophy, 165–66
decision-making process, 142f
Iraq War fratricides, 137–43, 160, 192, 278
Patriot Vigilance Project, 171–72
Pentagon, 61, 96
perfidy, 259
Perimeter system, 313–14, 409n
Perrow, Charles, 153, 174–75, 189
Persian Gulf War (1991), see Gulf War
perverse instantiation, 239
Petrov, Stanislav, 1–2, 6, 144–45, 207, 305
PGMs (precision-guided munitions), 39–41, 281–83
Phalanx Close-In Weapon System (CIWS), 111
Phoenix, Joaquin, 235
Platform-M, 111–14
Playground (TensorFlow tutorial), 128–29
PLC (programmable logic controllers), 214
PMK-2 encapsulated torpedo mine, 51
poison gas, 340–43
poker, 242
post-traumatic stress, 290
posturing, 275
Powell, Colin, 279
Power, Thomas, 307
precautions in the attack, 252
precision-guided munitions (PGMs), 39–41, 281–83
Predator drones, 16, 17
preemptive weapons bans, 343–44, 352
principle of distinction, 252–55
profnath (online bookseller), 205
>
programmable logic controllers (PLC), 214
projection bias, 310, 316
proportionality, principle of, 255–57
Protector (robotic boat), 103
psychological distance, 275–76
public conscience, dictates of, 263–66
public opinion, 264–66
Python, 131
al-Qaeda, 22, 253
radar, 85
Ramage, USS, 166
Raspberry Pi, 127, 131
Reagan, Ronald, and administration, 1, 309–10
Reaper drones, 16, 17
regulation, see arms control
Reisner, Daniel, 255
reliability, see safety
Remotely Piloted Aircraft Vector (U.S. Air Force report), 61
responsibility, consequences of removing, 275–79
retributive justice, 262
revolutions in warfare, 93–96
risk
in autonomous systems, 147–49
of autonomous weapon failure, 189–95
of delegating autonomy to a machine, 192f
risk mitigation, 175
“roadmaps” for unmanned system investment, 15–17
roboethics, 280–81
robotic ground vehicles, 102, 111–17
robotics
for surveillance, 13–14
Three Laws of, 26–27
robot tanks, 115–16
ROE, see rules of engagement
Roff, Heather, 209–10
rogue states, 7
Roomba, 26, 30, 34, 278
Rosoboronexport, 115
RQ-170 stealth drone, 209
rules-based ethics, 285; see also deontological ethics
rules-based learning systems, 125, 179
rules of engagement (ROE), 106, 109, 309, 328
“rules of the road,” 356–57
runaway gun, 190–91
R.U.R. (Rossumovi Univerzální Roboti) (play), 234
Russell, Stuart, 68, 71, 72, 116, 118, 356
Russia
cyberattacks by, 213
ground combat robots, 5, 102, 111–17
lack of public policy on autonomous weapons, 118
Platform-M, 111–14
robotized military units, 6
Soviet era, see Cold War; Soviet Union
tolerance for casualties and fratricide, 172
Trident missile false alarm (1995), 173–74
Uran-9 ground combat robot, 114–16
U.S. military and, 207
Vikhr robot tank, 115–16
Wolf-2, 114
Rutter, Brad, 146
Rwanda, 288
SAC (Strategic Air Command), 307
safety (reliability)
and Aegis combat system, 162–67
of autonomous weapons, 161–79
nuclear weapons and near-miss accidents, 173–75
and USS Vincennes incident, 169–70
SAG (surface action group), 64
Sagan, Scott, 174–75
Salty Dog 501/502 (X-47B experimental drone), 60–62
Samsung SGR-A1 robot, 5, 104–5, 118, 303–4
SAR (synthetic aperture radar), 86