Did this dramatic plummet simply reflect the genius of Apple engineers and designers? Ironically, Nokia had developed a touchscreen smartphone seven years before the iPhone arrived on the market. The firm’s managers, however, chose not to bring those products to market and instead focused on what were then highly profitable basic handsets. They failed to pivot, falling prey to a common change barrier: the belief that current success is a predictor of future performance. Today’s moneymakers—and their impact on share price—create powerful blinders that obscure both emerging threats and opportunities. Nokia’s rival, Motorola, similarly faltered when it was slow to pivot from analog to digital handsets.
Nokia struggled for years to catch up. Finally, in 2013, its device and service businesses were acquired by Microsoft.
When you fail to integrate new information and adjust your situational understanding, your analysis and subsequent actions become dangerously misguided.
To counter this hazard, assume that you will not fully comprehend a situation until it is over. Even then, there may be unanswered questions. These should spur further questions and keep you curious. Flex your imagination. Learn as much as possible about what is happening. Seek data that is accurate and verifiable. Probe for what is missing. Most important, listen to others. Let them see that you are working to understand their perspectives and contributions.
Know that information will come at you in scattershot fashion, and some will be incorrect. Note anomalies. Determine what is more important and less so. Keep fitting pieces into the puzzle looking for patterns to emerge. Be careful about getting overwhelmed. And don’t force-fit information into your preconceived notions. Beware of your cognitive biases and those of others.
The POP-DOC Loop
A situation with so much going on can be overwhelming. You’re being pulled in many directions, and everything seems urgent.
The key to overcoming the chaos is to systematically decode patterns, anticipate decisions, and plan actions. If you stay disciplined, continuously driving to the known, you will foster more accurate situational awareness, which will allow you to test different strategies and tactics, even in crisis mode. To help provide structure and foster cohesion, we’ve developed a tool that we call the POP-DOC Loop: Perceive, Orient, Predict; Decide, Operationalize, Communicate.
Here we’ve depicted the POP-DOC Loop as a figure-8 Möbius loop: a single, seamless progression of steps to guide your meta-leadership thinking and action. Start on the top of the left side of the figure-8 and move counterclockwise: Perceive what is happening. Orient yourself to detect patterns and understand what they mean. Distinguish between what you think and what you know. Test for bias-driven blind spots. And then, based on the patterns and the probability of their recurrence, predict what is likely to happen next. These are the learning steps. They integrate the dimensions of the person and the situation.
As you cross over to the right side of the figure-8, now moving clockwise, you enter the action phases and shape connectivity: Decide on a course of action. Operationalize the necessary organizational resources. Communicate information out to and bring information in from relevant stakeholders. Then, to assess the impact of your decisions, operations, and communications, cycle back. Repeat the loop continuously, beginning with perceiving again—taking account of new information and changes you have instigated.
The POP-DOC Loop helps you grasp the true nature of complex problems, manage the consequences of your actions, and create sustainable solutions. POP-DOC discipline mitigates risk and increases your capacity to address multiple problems simultaneously.
The roots of POP-DOC are in the OODA Loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) developed by Colonel John Boyd of the US Air Force during the Korean War. Boyd’s OODA Loop helped explain why American fighter pilots were outperforming their adversaries. The faster they were able to go through an OODA Loop, the more effective they were. We build on Boyd’s work and expand it to depict a useful guide and benchmark for meta-leaders. For you, we add “predict” and “communicate.” Leadership, after all, is both anticipatory and social.
As a meta-leader, you use POP-DOC yourself, and to amplify its effectiveness you embed it in your organization and network. POP-DOC is a guide for creating the conditions for the active and intentional engagement of your followers and other stakeholders.
What is the significance of the Möbius loop structure? A Möbius is the only two-dimensional shape that must be rendered in three dimensions to be perceived. You can simulate one with a ribbon: make one twist and attach the ends. On a complete cycle around a Möbius, you cover its full surface and return to your starting point without ever crossing an edge. This loop is a pathway for perpetually ordering, directing, and guiding your meta-leadership practice in complex situations. The twist is what you do and accomplish as a leader—the change you initiate. POP-DOC is a guide through complexity. You understand and turn a situation, pivoting continually between thinking and acting as you focus on your desired outcomes.
When Dr. Richard Besser was leading the CDC’s response to the H1N1 influenza pandemic, he and his team were constantly called upon to inform policymakers and the public about the future course of the outbreak. How fast would it spread? How sick would people get? How many of the sick would die? Which groups would be at greatest risk?
In the beginning, little was known for sure. The CDC had only the opinions of top scientists, not the data for complete scientific analysis. Policymakers and clinicians, however, could not wait for a perfect picture. Time was of the essence. A decision was needed.
CDC leaders studied what little epidemiological data they had (perceiving) to assess the nature of the virus (orienting). With that, they predicted that they could both minimize the spread of the disease and diminish the social and economic impact that would result from mass sickness and fear. Therefore, they encouraged people to engage in specific protective behaviors, such as coughing into one’s elbow and frequent hand-washing. At the outset, they ordered schools closed for two weeks (deciding) if even one case was found among students. To operationalize the policy, they coordinated with state and local officials. They held frequent press conferences and constantly updated the CDC website (communicating). Continuing around the Möbius loop, they learned more, changed advisories, and executed policies accordingly. That honesty and transparency reaped an uncommon 83 percent approval rating for the government’s handling of the crisis.
The first phase in POP is perceive. Picture a wide-open zoom lens on a camera. The more you see and the more information you gather, the better informed you become. Look for solid, verifiable evidence to build as complete a picture as possible. Draw on all your senses to learn the circumstances of the situation and the stakeholders involved. Speak and, more important, listen to a range of individuals. Challenge yourself to be open-minded. Often your most important clues are subtle, not the ones that shout out for attention. If you are in the basement, your perception will be limited, so engage your trigger script to get out of the basement as soon as possible.
From that broader view, distill more data and narrow your perspective, focusing on what you perceive to be most important. Zoom out again to see the big picture unfolding. Ask “what if…” questions to expand your thinking. Challenge assumptions and orthodoxies. It is your responsibility as a meta-leader to be in the know. There is little forgiveness if the evidence was available and you failed to notice and act on it. Venture out, reaching for what others can’t see. Be curious.
Information overload is a constant danger. Do not be afraid to stop gathering information or responding to concerns that prove irrelevant.
Phase two in the POP-DOC Loop is orient. During this analytic phase, you are looking for patterns—the predictable stimulus-response sequences that distinguish repetitive actions and behaviors. They help you discern order amid chaos. Correctly identified patterns organize many data points into logical arrangements of events and behaviors.
Search for patterns—bot
h social and physical—that are legitimate, relevant, and useful in understanding the situation at hand. The social patterns include lines of communication, decision-making norms, and relationships among people and groups. The environmental and physical patterns include the weather, chemical reactions, and animal migrations.
Draw on your prior experience and expertise to distinguish what is useful information and what is not. Fill in the gaps of information as best you can. Don’t try to paint every detail. Do not confuse assumptions with hard data. Instead, work to grasp the big picture as it emerges. You will refine your understanding as you perceive and add more critical information.
Patterns rarely occur in isolation. Understanding the relational effects as different patterns converge in your situation is critical to your analysis. This dynamism is complexity. As you accurately identify patterned reactions and the factors modifying those patterns, you discover overlapping phenomena that clarify what is happening. You collect clues that enable you to interrupt current patterns and, if change is called for, instigate new patterns.
As you work to understand patterns, keep in mind that correlation does not always equate to causation. The brain prizes coherence and can instantly stitch together visible data points into a picture that is plausible though not necessarily true. Paradoxically, the brain can fabricate patterns that bolster coherence in your perceptions. This is how optical illusions trick you. Your mind invents and accepts an explanation that makes superficial sense even though it is wrong.
CDC scientists, working to unravel the early mysteries of the H1N1 virus, applied incoming epidemiological data to discern how dangerous and spreadable it was. That information oriented them to a disease more akin to typical seasonal flu than to a massively fatal pandemic. The data revealed the patterns.
As you make your own sense of what is happening, you discover how others orient themselves based on what they perceive. What are the commonalities and differences among those providing and interpreting information? Why do they exist? Use this information to further refine your orientation to the situation.
Phase three of the POP-DOC Loop is predict. If you correctly identified and anticipated the progression of patterns, and if you expect those patterns to repeat themselves in the near future, you are ready to accurately anticipate what will—or what could—happen next.
At one point in the H1N1 outbreak, epidemiologists discovered that pregnant women were particularly susceptible to the disease. Scientists predicted that a disproportionate number of those women would succumb to the virus. That prediction informed subsequent decisions, operations, and communications that saved lives.
Prediction is a powerful tool as you lead. With the right information, the movements of people, the reactions of the press, and the responses of other leaders are all predictable. What you have seen before you may very well see again, shaped by all that is happening in your situation.
In a dynamic situation, you predict at the intersection of the past, the present, and the future: what was, what is, and what will be. For example, modelers use their sophisticated algorithms to look at history and current conditions to forecast future economic trends as well as the weather. A prediction mind-set, balanced by experience and information about the situation, helps to reduce uncertainty. You stay ahead of what is happening and guide those you lead to the appropriate decisions and actions.
The intent of POP-DOC is not to assume flawless powers of prophecy. Rather, accept that the accuracy of your predictions is not perfect. The purpose of Predict in the meta-leadership Möbius loop is to orient you to the future and instill discipline in your directive thinking and actions. The Möbius loop structure encourages you to decide and act without waiting for perfect information. You can revise and adapt the operational aspects of your endeavors as you learn more about the situation. Remember, the loop is continuous. If you don’t get it right on this go-round, seek to improve on the next.
You may need to make multiple predictions. Assign each a probability for accuracy, though do so carefully. Precisely calculating probability does not come naturally to most people; typically, your results are closer to guesswork. Temper your intuition with facts and the available facts with intuition. Examine whatever data you have. Ask about base rates to determine if the deviations you perceive are small or large. Factor in the eventual regression of all patterns to a mean. In sports, for example, perceived hot and cold streaks tend to balance each other out in a way that reflects a player’s or team’s actual ability.
When accurate, trusted, and followed, prediction keeps you a step ahead of unfolding events. It requires and builds influence beyond authority. Some decisions and actions are yours to take. Others demand convincing other people—often leaders themselves—of the evidence of an emerging pattern and the choices and consequences that lie ahead.
Predicting accurately takes practice. Start today at your office or on your commute home. When you send your subordinates a sales update noting the gap between revenue booked and the monthly goal, you are predicting that the information will spur them to reach out to their accounts for new orders. When you choose the side-street route home, you predict that it will be faster than the highway. What is the big picture? What is your prediction? What information and experience are you using? What are the patterns? How often are you right?
A cautionary note on predicting: once you predict, you create a cognitive bias that affects how you perceive the situation going forward. You and others become invested in that prediction, seeking and giving preference to confirming evidence. Be as prepared for your prediction to be wrong as you are for it to be right. Over time you will increase your accuracy, though always be ready to admit an incorrect prediction. You may even need to completely reverse course.
Your predictive capabilities provide guidance as you transition to the next steps of POP-DOC. You are now ready to engage in multi-stakeholder problem-solving—the “people follow you” side of the process.
Phase four of POP-DOC is decide. If you do not advance to making a decision, you will fall victim to the POP trap—forever gathering and analyzing information without ever committing to a course of action. Paralysis by analysis. To move forward, you must decide.
First, there is the process of deciding. You are aware of the need for stakeholder buy-in and support if your decision is to be carried out. To achieve this, be transparent and certain about your intended decision-making process: Will you make the call yourself? Will you seek consensus among a core team? Will you take a vote, perhaps reserving veto power for yourself? You may even delegate the decision to someone whom you believe has appropriate perspective, such as a subject matter expert. You assess the situation as well as your own style, authority, and accountability and that of the others the decision will involve. Your intent is to arrive at the best outcome. Articulate your preferred decision-making process. It is better to deal with any dissonance over the process before you actually make the decision.
Next, when data are available and reliable, apply it. Algorithms, even simple ones, can outperform experts when causal factors are known. Companies such as Amazon and Netflix make decisions on product recommendations using automated predictive analytics. These conclusions, even more than customers’ own choices, can be an accurate prediction of what customers will like. Health care organizations such as Kaiser Permanente, a large US integrated provider, rely on evidence-based protocols as the default choice for the treatment of many illnesses.
And then there are your “gut feelings.” These actually derive from the rich reserve of data in your brain gleaned through life experience. Intuition is knowing without conscious reasoning or definitive evidence. The decision just feels right. Intuition is excellent for rendering decisions that are “good enough” in many situations, particularly if you have had sufficient practice with a particular type of decision. Experienced poker players cannot see every card, though by playing thousands of hands of cards they develop a sixth sense about whether to “hol
d ’em or fold ’em.” This intuitive sense combines numerous data points, including the facial expressions and body language of others, that are more subjective than objective.
Experience-based intuition explains why a physician may choose to override the default protocol at Kaiser Permanente. She may feel that there is something distinct about a case that requires a different course of treatment. Having a default option requires her to articulate the reasons for deviating from it. This informs and improves the care of a specific patient as well as the data set on which the default is based.
Evidence and intuition serve to check and balance each other. They stretch across a continuum. If you have data and it does not feel right, ask more questions. Your gut may lead you in a direction that defies the facts at hand. Conversely, hard data may temper your first intuitive judgment. Considering your perspective, as well as that of others, can moderate your prediction bias. Your objective is to reach the best possible decision through the most appropriate process, and in a timely manner.
Phase five of POP-DOC is operationalize. Decisions do not become actions by themselves. Weight loss is a good example. Many people decide to get into better shape. Far fewer actually operationalize the choice by going to the gym and eating less. Making a decision and taking action on that decision use different circuits of the brain.
To operationalize is to take meaningful action, including activating others to do so. Your most visible and tangible meta-leadership activities materialize in this phase of POP-DOC. What you do here—or do not do—often determines the success or failure of what you ultimately hope to accomplish. Your operationalization is what others see and experience. It is when your impact becomes tangible.
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