by Bill Gates
Table: Green Premiums to replace bunker fuel : Rhodium Group, Evolved Energy Research, IRENA, and Agora Energiewende. Retail price is the average in the United States from 2015 to 2018. Zero-carbon option is current estimated price.
Table: Green Premiums to replace current fuels: Rhodium Group, Evolved Energy Research, IRENA, and Agora Energiewende. Retail price is the average in the United States from 2015 to 2018. Zero-carbon option is current estimated price.
In 2019, we bought more than 5 million cars: S&P Global Market Intelligence, https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/.
Chapter 8: How We Keep Cool and Stay Warm
Humans have been trying: A. A’zami, “Badgir in Traditional Iranian Architecture,” Passive and Low Energy Cooling for the Built Environment conference, Santorini, Greece, May 2005.
But the first known machine: U.S. Department of Energy, “History of Air Conditioning,” www.energy.gov. Also “The Invention of Air Conditioning,” Panama City Living, March 13, 2014, www.panamacityliving.com.
Barely more than a century: International Energy Agency, “The Future of Cooling,” www.iea.org.
Worldwide, there are 1.6 billion: International Energy Agency, www.iea.org.
Figure: A/C is on the way: Based on IEA data from IEA (2018), The Future of Cooling, IEA (2018), www.iea.org/statistics. All rights reserved; as modified by Gates Ventures, LLC.
Worldwide, sales rose 15 percent: Ibid.
in the United States: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, www.epa.gov.
Table: Green Premium for installing an air-sourced heat pump : Rhodium Group. This table shows the net present value of an air-sourced heat pump versus a natural gas heater and an electric A/C in a new house. Costs are calculated using a 7 percent discount rate and current prices for electricity and natural gas as of summer 2019 and a 15-year life span for the heat pump.
If heat pumps are such a great deal: U.S. Energy Information Administration, www.eia.gov.
Table: Green Premiums to replace current heating fuels: Rhodium Group, Evolved Energy Research, IRENA, and Agora Energiewende. Retail price is the average in the United States from 2015 to 2018. Zero-carbon option is current estimated price.
If their home is heated: Ibid.
An extreme example: Bullitt Center, www.bullittcenter.org.
Photo: Nic Lehoux.
Chapter 9: Adapting to a Warmer World
Photo: ©Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation/Frederic Courbet.
Worldwide, there are 500 million: Max Roser, Our World in Data website, ourworldindata.org.
The typical Kenyan: World Bank, www.data.worldbank.org.
The world knows a lot: GAVI, www.gavi.org.
In fact, doubling CGIAR’s funding: Global Commission on Adaptation, Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience, World Resources Institute, Sept. 2019, gca.org.
Photo: From the photo collection of the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Los Banos, Laguna, Philippines.
The payoff could be dramatic: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, State of Food and Agriculture: Women in Agriculture, 2010–2011, www.fao.org.
Photo: Mazur Travel via Shutterstock.
Extreme poverty has plummeted: World Bank, “Decline of Global Extreme Poverty Continues but Has Slowed,” www.worldbank.org.
Chapter 10: Why Government Policies Matter
Photo: Mirrorpix via Getty Images.
As a result of these: U.S. Energy Information Administration, www.eia.gov.
Germany gave the market a boost: International Energy Agency.
Then, in 2011, the United States: U.S. Energy Department, “Renewable Energy and Efficient Energy Loan Guarantees,” www.energy.gov.
Photo: Sirio Magnabosco/EyeEm via Getty Images.
Chapter 11: A Plan for Getting to Zero
The project took 13 years: Human Genome Project Information Archive, “Potential Benefits of HGP Research,” web.ornl.gov.
An independent study: Simon Tripp and Martin Grueber, “Economic Impact of the Human Genome Project,” Battelle Memorial Institute, www.battelle.org.
Chapter 12: What Each of Us Can Do
“When we have a fact-based worldview”: Hans Rosling, Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong About the World—and Why Things Are Better than You Think, with Ola Rosling and Anna Rosling Rönnlund (New York: Flatiron Books, 2018), 255.
Afterword: Climate Change and COVID-19
Black people and Latinx people: “Race, Ethnicity, and Age Trends in Persons Who Died from COVID-19—United States, May–August 2020,” U.S. Centers for Disease Control https://www.cdc.gov.
Among recipients of Medicare: “Preliminary Medicare COVID-19 Data Snapshot,” Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, https://www.cms.gov.
A study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation: “Goalkeepers Report 2020,” https://www.gatesfoundation.org.
In 2018, the U.S. government’s investment: “Impacts of Federal R&D Investment on the U.S. Economy,” Breakthrough Energy, https://www.breakthroughenergy.org.
INDEX
Text in italics refer to illustrations.
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A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
A
adaptation to warmer climates, 160
by climate-proofing cities and infrastructure, 170
drinking water and, 173
for farmers in low-income countries, 29, 35, 165
funding needs for, 169, 174, 229
Africa
emissions in, 162, 165, 170
energy use in, 4, 6, 67, 68, 73
farming in, 29, 118, 121, 123, 161, 163, 165
fighting poverty and climate change in, 4, 6, 67, 68, 160
forests in, 127, 172
health care in, 4, 148, 164
agriculture, see farming
air conditioning (A/C) units, 148 and n, 150, 152, 154, 244 and n
see also heating and cooling
airplanes and fuel alternatives, 134, 135, 143 and n, 147
air pollution, 48, 179
animals as food, 112, 115, 116, 117, 126, 162
artificial meat, 119, 222
B
batteries for storing electricity
with renewables, 75, 79 and n, 91, 93
in vehicles, 135, 137, 140, 141, 142
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, projects of
for adaptation of farming in poor countries, 35, 168
for fighting COVID-19, 12
on global health, 4, 62, 148, 164
biofuels, advanced
for home heating, 155, 56
plant sources for, 116, 138
research needs for, 139, 147, 192
uncertainties about, 191
for vehicles, 59, 138, 39, 140, 142, 143, 144, 147, 191, 207
Breakthrough Energy Ventures, 11, 54, 55, 82n, 84
breakthrough technologies, see innovations needed
buildings, green, 111, 157, 58, 214, 221
see also heating and cooling
buses, 134, 140, 41, 147, 214
C
CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy), 48, 49
cap-and-trade systems, 186, 206
carbon border adjustments, 215
carbon capture, 127
direct air capture (DAC), 15, 63, 95, 109, 111, 207
from point sources, 94, 107, 108, 109, 111, 207
use of, for production of low-carbon fuel, 110, 135, 137
carbon dioxide, 22, 95, 126
in making materials, 103, 104, 105, 110
price increase for externalities of, 186, 194, 206, 210, 212, 215, 223
from steel and cement production, 103, 107, 109
in trees and forests, 127
see also greenhouse gas emissions
/>
carbon dioxide equivalents, 22, 41
carbon, price on, 186, 194, 206, 210, 212, 215, 223
cars
alternative fuels for, 137, 40
electric (EV), 135, 146, 147, 221, 242n
emissions from, 54, 55, 134
fuel efficiency for, 46, 48, 145
slow adoption of new types of, 44, 46, 137, 146
cattle, see cows, raising
cement, production of, 100, 104, 107, 108, 109, 187
CGIAR agricultural research, 166, 68
Chevrolet Bolt EV, 136, 242n
China, 30
development in, 72, 73, 100, 103, 115, 16, 150
emissions in, 133, 41
green projects in, 90, 140, 41, 172, 181, 182, 190, 192
city councils, role of, 214
clean electricity, standards for, 207, 210, 212, 213
see also electricity, zero-carbon
climate change
conversations about, 52
COVID-19 and, 3n, 12, 33 and n, 64, 132, 133, 198, 227
moving to consensus on, 14, 49, 195, 225
timeframe for action on, 35, 196, 209, 212, 213
weather patterns and, 24
see also greenhouse gas emissions
climate disaster, avoiding, 8, 16
with adaptation to warmer climates, 35, 160
barriers to, 37
electricity and, 66
government policies as necessary for, 179
growing plants and animals and, 112
heating and cooling and, 148
with individual action, 218
making materials and, 98
plan for, 195, 227
rationale for, 18
tips for conversations on, 52
transportation and, 130
see also specific entry for each topic, e.g. electricity, zero-carbon
clouds, brightening of, 177
coal, 44, 87
global electricity from, 71, 70
power plants with, 73, 85, 95
replacement of jobs in, 188
companies, role of, 16, 202, 222
computer models, predictions with, 20, 24, 82, 171
concrete, 98, 100, 104, 187
cooling, 148
see also heating and cooling
COP 21, 10, 215
see also Paris Agreement
coral reefs, 30, 172
corn (maize), 29, 162, 166
corn ethanol, 138, 191, 192
COVID-19, impact of, 3n, 12, 33 and n, 64, 132, 33, 198, 227
cows, raising, 112, 115, 117, 126, 162
D
dams for hydropower, 7n, 58, 69 and n, 70, 85
deforestation, 113, 126, 172
developing countries and emissions, 40, 43, 72, 73, 101, 102, 115, 116, 133, 150, 151, 163
developing green products
companies and investors for, 189, 191, 204, 223
with consumer access and demand, 186, 203, 220
with early adopters, 202, 203, 224, 225
with government purchasing, 203, 208, 210, 213, 214
infrastructure for, 189, 204, 209, 210
scaling phase for, 205, 210, 213
standards for, 208, 211
up-to-date policies for, 48, 90, 157, 187, 190, 205
diesel fuel, 144, 142
divestment from fossil fuel companies, 9
droughts, 27, 33, 166, 167
E
ecosystems, protection of, 172, 73
18-wheelers, 134, 140, 141
electric heat pumps, 60, 153, 154, 156, 221, 244n
electricity, 68
capacity vs. generation in production of, 79
distribution of, 75 and n, 83
global sources of, 70, 239n
measurements of, 56, 57
overgeneration and undergeneration of, 77
reliability and availability of, 47, 66, 75
transmission of, 74 and n, 80
electricity, zero-carbon (green), 66
with carbon capture, 94
demand shifting and reduction for, 95
emissions to be reduced by, 8, 55, 66, 67, 151
future growth in need of, 79, 83, 109, 146
geothermal as, 90
government policies for, 146, 182, 207, 211, 212, 213, 214
Green Premiums for, 72, 79, 81, 83, 106, 194, 221
green pricing programs for, 221
innovations in, 84, 90, 96, 190
intermittency problem with, 8, 57, 75, 77n, 81, 93
demand shifting and reduction for, 84
offshore wind for, 89
solar energy for (see solar energy)
solutions available for, 72, 81, 89, 95, 192, 202, 205
storage options with, 75, 79 and n, 91
wind energy for (see wind energy)
electric vehicles (EVs)
batteries for, 135, 137, 140, 141, 142
cars, 135, 146, 147, 221, 242n
charging stations for, 142, 146, 205, 209, 214
city buses, 140, 41, 147, 214
scaling of, 205
electrification, 182
for cooling and heating, 60, 149 and n, 150, 156, 221, 244n
as goal, 109, 197
for manufacturing, 106, 109, 111
for transportation (see electric vehicles; electrofuels)
electrofuels
for home heating, 155, 56
research needed on, 147
for vehicles, 139, 40, 142, 143, 144, 147, 207
see also hydrogen
emissions, see greenhouse gas emissions
energy efficiency, 145, 151, 157, 182
energy policies in U.S., 48, 179, 191, 207
energy use and income, 4, 6
ethanol, corn, 138, 191, 192
Europe/European Union, 29, 216
diet in, 115, 116, 118, 121
emissions in, 41
green initiatives in, 73, 78, 84, 89, 136, 192, 207, 208
external costs of carbon, 186, 194, 206, 210, 212, 215, 223
F
farming
climate change/chaotic weather and, 29, 31, 35, 165
cropland and, 116, 127, 138
crop yields in, 29, 114, 122, 123, 165
fertilizer for, 115, 121
initiatives in poor countries, 35, 118, 121, 23, 161, 163, 165
with zero-carbon goal (see growing plants and animals)
federal government, role of, 183, 188, 190, 203, 210, 214
feed-in tariffs, 192, 194
fertilizer, synthetic, 115, 121
flooding, 167, 168, 171, 172, 73
flow batteries, 92
food production, see farming; growing plants and animals
forests and trees, 113, 126, 172, 73
fossil fuels
cost of, 39, 45, 58, 70, 74, 105, 132, 186, 206
damage caused by, 40, 74, 186
divestment from, 9
for furnaces, 60, 153, 56, 186, 221, 244n
history of use of, 18, 24, 43, 44, 69, 132, 206
in manufacturing, 106
pervasiveness of, 37, 69
power density of, 58
replacement of jobs and tax base from, 146, 187
retirement of products using, 208
for transportation, 132
see also fuels, clean; gasoline
fuel cell batteries, 93
fuel efficiency, 46, 48, 145
fuels, clean
drop-in fuels, 138, 139
for heating, 155, 56
need for, 147, 153, 189
standards for, 207, 211, 212
for transportation, 137, 40, 142, 143, 44, 147, 191, 207
furnaces, home, 60, 153, 56, 186, 221, 244n
G
gas, natural, see natural gas
gasoline
alternatives to, 137, 40, 144, 146, 191, 192, 242n, 243n
electric alternatives for, 135, 140, 41, 146, 242n
as energy dense and cheap, 130
taxes on, 145, 146
Gates, Bill, Sr., 112
Gates, Melinda, 4, 8, 12, 62, 117
Gates Foundation projects, see Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
geoengineering, 176
geothermal power, 67, 85, 90
Germany, 78, 153, 192
global temperature increase, 20
and cascading effects of climate change
and climate disasters, 24
history and future of, 21, 24, 25
human activity as cause of, 7, 18, 21, 24, 238n
impact of small degree of, 20, 24, 30
regional variations in, 21
government policies, role of, 179, 203, 230
in accounting for carbon costs, 186, 194, 206, 210, 212, 215, 223
for bringing technology to market, 108, 181, 189, 198, 202, 223
for buying green products, 146, 203, 208, 210, 213, 214
for infrastructure, 146, 170, 189, 204, 209, 210
in a just energy transition, 187, 229
at national, state, and local levels, 183, 188, 203, 208
need to update, 48, 90, 157, 187, 190, 205
for R&D funding, 184, 199 (see also R&D funding for innovations)
for scaling new products, 205, 210, 213
see also adaptation to warmer climates
Great Smog of London, 179, 80
greenhouse gas emissions, 22
capturing, 63, 94, 107, 108, 109, 111
carbon prices as a way to reduce, 186, 194, 206, 210, 212, 215, 223
causes of, 22, 24, 54, 55n
cost for reduction of, 58 (see also Green Premiums)
COVID-19’s effect on, 3n, 13, 64, 132, 33
and economic development, 40, 43, 72, 73, 101, 102, 115, 116, 133, 150, 151, 163
global temperature increase from, 7, 18, 21, 24, 238n
growth and persistence of, 18, 19, 24, 41, 49
heat-trapping effect of, 18, 22
measuring, 53, 55n
reduction of (see climate disaster, avoiding; zero, getting to)
in rich vs. developing and poor countries, 40, 43, 162
see also carbon dioxide; methane; nitrous oxide
Green Premiums, 58, 59n
affordability of, 60, 61, 64, 158, 188, 214
calculation of, 59, 59n
for cooling and heating, 151, 153, 154, 156, 157, 244n
for electricity, 72, 79, 81, 83, 106, 194, 221
for food production, 119, 120, 125