The simple truth is that, whatever arguments we on the Remain side put forward, immigration had been too high for too long, and people felt that leaving the EU was a way to do something about it, while simultaneously dealing with an organisation that had, in the view of many, become too big, too bossy and too interfering. The irony of that fact isn’t lost on me. The test of our success in government would be whether we could rescue our economy. We achieved that. But in doing so we sparked a jobs boom which attracted record migration to the UK. Our successes really do hold the seeds of our defeat.
I resent the accusation that I had somehow dreamed up the idea of a referendum; that it was an election gambit, and only about the Conservative Party.
I set out the case in the Bloomberg speech in January 2013, more than three years before holding the referendum. There was broad support for the idea, which found expression in the result. It is odd to argue that because a majority decided they didn’t want to be in the EU, this proves we should have stayed in without asking.
Yes, the Conservative Party has long been deeply split over Europe, but it is an issue that has vexed every political party, and the British people themselves. How else can you explain the fact that every UK-wide party made a commitment to a European referendum at some stage between 2005 and 2015? (Labour fought the 2005 election on a pledge to hold a referendum on the proposed EU constitution. The Lib Dems backed an in/out referendum in 2010. The Greens backed one in their manifesto in 2015. And UKIP – unsurprisingly – backed a referendum at every election during the period in question.)
The fact remains that, ever since 1975, our membership of the EU had been framed in terms of a plebiscite. By the 2010s, people backed the idea of holding a referendum in polls by a ratio of three to one. By voting Conservative in 2015 they voted for a referendum. In the event, nine out of ten MPs in Parliament voted for the Referendum Bill in June 2015.
I don’t argue that the referendum pledge had nothing to do with party politics or public pressure; of course the views of MPs and electoral results were considerations. But so was the genuine problem of trying to get the right settlement for the UK. Are critics really saying that public concerns and political pressure should play no part in these things? Surely that’s part of what politics and democracy are: listening to people and responding to their grievances.
Again, when looking at the EU debate I hope people will come to see it in the wider context. Britain has always been different, always been carving itself out of things rather than throwing ourselves head-first into them. Remember: Thatcher had got us the rebate. Major (and Brown) had kept us out of the euro. Even the arch-Europhile Blair carved us out of justice and home affairs powers. I had got us out of bailouts, treaties and further powers going to Brussels. But the rip-tide dragging powers from Britain to Europe had become too strong. Being in the single market, but out of the euro, made that current even stronger and more dangerous, particularly as the euro lurched into a long-running crisis. The only way to deal with this was to be radical, to entrench our special status, and to extract ourselves from certain elements – in particular the goal of ever-closer union. We needed to repatriate powers we’d lost, and to do so with the ultimate goal of a referendum. Yet what I achieved evidently wasn’t enough to convince people.
However, I maintain that while leaving the EU is not my choice, it’s a legitimate choice for the sixth-biggest economy in the world, and something that, like everything else in our history, we can make the best of. Instead of being in the EU but out of the bits we really didn’t like, such as the single currency, we can be out of the EU but in the things we need, such as a strong trading relationship and security cooperation. Instead of being reluctant tenants, we must become contented and cooperative neighbours. That is how I see it.
It was a letter from Tony Blair that reassured me as I took office, and in the days after I left it was a missive from his predecessor, John Major, that gave me succour, particularly his words on the wisdom of calling a referendum.
Politics is a brutal business, and there are only a very few who will understand so profoundly how you and Samantha will be feeling today.
Although the last few weeks must have been truly awful, you have carried yourself with a dignity few could have matched. And you have a great deal to be proud of: saving the economy; reforming education and health; meeting our foreign aid obligation for the first time; enabling gay men and women to achieve a legal status they have long deserved; and much more.
You have also won two elections; led the first successful coalition in [peacetime] for 100 years; changed the perception of the Conservative Party; and brought forward far more women into the parliamentary party. I know of no one else in our party who could have achieved all this.
I am sure that the referendum result will be weighing heavily on you, but let me offer some comfort. I believe history will see this in a much wider perspective than everyday scribes. History will acknowledge that a referendum was becoming inevitable – if not now, later – and delay would have made Brexit more likely.
I concur with Sir John on the inevitability of a referendum. And I also believe in the inevitability of a reckoning for the EU. The issues have not gone away. Indeed, I see European leaders fighting the same battles I fought. In choosing the new Commission president, presidents and prime ministers have abandoned the Spitzenkandidat system. Meanwhile, new proposals come forward for a European army, and other EU leaders baulk at them. The European Commission demands that Italy revises its budget and threatens sanctions. Once again, the answer in Brussels seems to be ‘more federalism, more integration, more Europe’.
I knew at the time how important it was to try to change things – that the problems were so big they demanded a big, bold response. If we didn’t, it would only result in people flocking to the extremes.
‘Populism’ might not have been a common term until the end of my premiership, but as a force it was there all along, playing to people’s grievances and pulling them towards parties that would, in my opinion, only inflame matters.
The economic grievances that followed the financial crash, and the cultural grievances that resulted from unprecedented levels of migration, affected most of the Western world. At least Britain was a country with a government that was admitting them, confronting them, and trying to assuage them by creating a fairer economy and a stricter immigration system. Rather than being batted around by these forces, we were standing strong against them, or at least trying to. The EU referendum was the biggest example of that.
And surely that is a vital part of what democratic politics is about. It is about representing your people, responding to their objections – regardless of the risk to your own position.
The prevailing narrative today is that liberal democracy, once proclaimed the winning ideology of the twentieth century, is now in retreat. You can see why this argument has gained traction when so many so-called ‘strongman’ leaders are arguing – and in some cases demonstrating – that you can succeed by ditching the building blocks of democracy, such as the rule of law, a free press and open economies.
I disagree. Ultimately, the success of a nation still depends on the freedom of its people. The yearning for democracy is stronger than ever. In a world that is richer and more connected than ever before, we have more power than ever before to deliver accountable government. That is why, even in these uncertain times, I remain optimistic. I still think our best days lie ahead of us. Indeed, I am dedicating some of my post-political life to helping countries build real, representative democracies with a robust rule of law. After all, that is the only thing that guarantees prosperity, security and opportunity for the long term.
It is my ambition to write to every future prime minister, just as my predecessors wrote to me. I think about doing so well into my old age, and wonder who will be sitting at that desk and opening the envelope. Maybe someone who was elected as an MP on those memorable e
lection days in May 2010 or 2015. Maybe someone who went to a Free School or did National Citizen Service. Maybe someone who came to this country as a Syrian refugee. Or someone who walks up Downing Street with their partner – husband and husband, or wife and wife – as proudly and nervously as Sam and I did in 2010.
Whoever they are, I will tell them this. That Britain is the greatest country on earth. Our greatness is derived not from our size, but from our people – their decency, their talent, and that special British spirit. There is no need for new ideology or systems, we have the best one here: democracy. We are lucky that this political system enables politicians to act upon what I think motivates most of them: the national interest and public service. And if you listen hard, beyond the sound and the fury, you will hear that this quiet patriotism and belief in democracy, public service and the national interest is what unites people too. Remember that as you pick up the baton and lead. I will be willing you on as you do.
Picture Section
Uncomplicated and unconditional love: my parents Ian and Mary with Alex, Tania, me and Clare outside the Old Rectory, Peasemore.
Playing fathers-and-sons cricket with Dad.
Eton, 1984.
Making my feelings on communism clear: the Berlin Wall, 1990.
With John Major, 1992.
Marrying Samantha, 1 June 1996.
At Norman Lamont’s side, as he speaks on ‘Black Wednesday’, 16 September 1992.
Loving life as a candidate on the campaign trail, at Stafford Rangers FC, 1997.
Campaigning with former home and foreign secretary, and former Witney MP, Douglas Hurd, 1997.
Standing in Witney, my dream seat, in 2001.
Launching my Conservative leadership campaign at the constituency office in Witney, with former Carterton mayor Joe Walcott on the right.
Our darling eldest son, Ivan.
In the garden at Dean with Nancy and Elwen.
Happy at home, with Samantha, Ivan, Elwen and Nancy.
The party conference speech, 2005. ‘So let the message go out from this conference: a modern, compassionate conservatism is right for our times, right for our party and right for our country.’
After the announcement of the 2005 Conservative leadership second ballot results: a total of ninety votes to Davis’s fifty-seven.
Celebrating in the moments after the leadership announcement at the Royal Academy of Arts, 6 December 2005.
Visiting a refugee camp in Sudan, November 2006.
A partnership. On the train with George Osborne, 2003.
Doing things differently: riding a dog sled in Norway, April 2006.
Campaigning hard, but mixing messages, 31 March 2010.
Working the tills under the supervision of Abdullah Rehman, who put me up for two days in Balsall Heath, Birmingham, May 2007.
A lighter moment with Boris Johnson at the Conservative Party Conference in Manchester, 4 October 2009.
The day after the 2010 election and hung Parliament. ‘So I want to make a big, open and comprehensive offer to the Liberal Democrats.’
Watching from the Commons as Gordon Brown resigns, 11 May 2010 (left to right: David Cameron, Gabby Bertin, Ed Llewellyn, Kate Fall, Andy Coulson, Liz Sugg, Samantha, Oliver Dowden).
Our first night in Downing Street, with William Hague and George Osborne, Tuesday, 11 May 2010.
Like a wedding: the Rose Garden press conference, speaking with Nick Clegg on the new coalition, 12 May 2010.
Welcoming Mrs Thatcher back to No. 10, 8 June 2010.
A surprise visit to British troops in Afghanistan, 6 December 2010.
The first meeting with a foreign leader after becoming prime minister: taking Afghan president Karzai around Chequers, 16 May 2010.
In Londonderry the public cheers the findings of the Saville Inquiry into the events of Bloody Sunday in 1972, 15 June 2010.
Signing off on the terms of the Scotland referendum with first minister of Scotland Alex Salmond, 15 October 2012.
Speaking to the crowd in Benghazi, Libya, with French president Nicolas Sarkozy and National Transitional Council head Mustafa Abdul Jalil, 15 September 2011.
Local residents in Benghazi bring placards out onto the street.
Queen Elizabeth II attends a cabinet meeting at No. 10 as part of the celebrations of her Diamond Jubilee, the first monarch to do so since the eighteenth century.
The Olympic torch visits Downing Street, 26 July 2012.
A daughter of Downing Street: Florence helping me during the Alternative Vote referendum campaign of 2011.
Liz introduces Larry the cat to Obama at No. 10, 25 May 2011.
The ‘treadmill bilateral’: a discreet meeting with Obama during the Camp David G8, May 2012.
World leaders at the Lough Erne G8, 18 June 2013 (left to right: José Manuel Barroso, Shinzo Abe, Angela Merkel, David Cameron, Vladimir Putin [obscured], Barack Obama, François Hollande, Stephen Harper, Enrico Letta, Herman Van Rompuy).
Olympics judo with Vladimir Putin, 2 August 2012.
Meeting Angela Merkel at Chequers, 9 October 2015.
The G7 Summit in Bavaria, 7 June 2015 (left to right: Matteo Renzi, Shinzo Abe, Jean-Claude Juncker, François Hollande, Stephen Harper, Donald Tusk, Angela Merkel, Barack Obama, David Cameron).
6 a.m., working through my red box in the flat above 11 Downing Street, 2 November 2011.
The 2015 election campaign, holding up a copy of Labour Treasury secretary Liam Byrne’s infamous 2010 note: ‘Dear Chief Secretary, I’m afraid there is no money.’
Making the closing arguments of the general election, May 2015.
Election day fears: reading my draft resignation speech, 7 May 2015 (left to right: Craig Oliver, Clare Foges, Liz Sugg, Ed Llewellyn, Kate Fall, David Cameron).
Visiting Gravesend for the Sikh festival of Vaisakhi, 18 April 2015.
Election night elation: watching the results come in at the Windrush Leisure Centre in Witney, 8 May 2015.
Clapped back in to No. 10, 8 May 2015 (left to right: Samantha Cameron, David Cameron, Chris Martin, Jeremy Heywood).
Rowing (not rowing) with Angela Merkel, Swedish prime minister Fredrik Reinfeldt and Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte at Harpsund, Sweden, 10 June 2015.
Boyko Borisov’s border fence, 4 December 2015.
Playing Wembley: British Indians flock to see Prime Minister Modi, 13 November 2015.
Calling in at a local pub, The Plough at Cadsden, with President Xi Jinping of China, 22 October 2015.
A meeting with Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker during the 18–19 February 2016 European Council, negotiating a new settlement for Britain in the EU.
Inspecting the final text of the renegotiated deal with adviser for Europe and global issues Tom Scholar and Britain’s permanent representative to the EU, Ivan Rogers.
Addressing Birmingham students and Remain supporters during a final EU referendum campaign speech, 22 June 2016.
The moment we knew it was over: watching the referendum results come in in the early hours of 24 June 2016.
Nancy, Elwen and Florence collaborate on a letter to the incoming tenants of No. 10, 13 July 2016.
Preparing for my final PMQs as prime minister, 13 July 2016.
A trip to the Reach Academy, Feltham, 12 July 2016, one of the 500 Free Schools given the green light during my premiership.
With the children, moments before leaving No. 10 for the last time, 13 July 2016.
Visiting a lab funded by Alzheimer’s Research UK as president of the charity.
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