by Rafe Sagarin
6 http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7004909622962894202#. Accessed April 7, 2010.
7 http://scienceblogs.com/notrocketscience/2009/12/octopus_carries_around_coconut_shells_as_suits_of_armour.php. Accessed April 7, 2010.
8 Ricketts, Edward F., Jack Calvin, and Joel W. Hedgpeth. Between Pacific Tides. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1985. Pp. 175–176.
9 Ricketts, Edward F. Outer Shores Transcript. June 27, 1946. In Rodger, Katharine A., ed. Breaking Through: Essays, Journals, and Travelogues of Edward F. Ricketts. Berkeley: University of California Press, 2006.
10 http://www.pbs.org/wnet/nature/interactives-extras/animal-guides/animal-guide-blue-ringed-octopus/2177/. Accessed April 7, 2010.
11 Tamm, E. E. Beyond the Outer Shores: The Untold Odyssey of Ed Ricketts, the Pioneering Ecologist Who Inspired John Steinbeck and Joseph Campbell. New York: Thunder’s Mouth Press, 2004.
12 Rodger, Katharine A., ed. Breaking Through: Essays, Journals, and Travelogues of Edward F. Ricketts. Berkeley: University of California Press, 2006.
13 Ricketts, Edward F. Outer Shores Transcript. June 26, 1946. In ibid.
14 Ricketts, Edward F. “The Philosophy of Breaking Through,” 1940. In ibid.
15 Ricketts, Edward F. Zoological Preface. August 27, 1940. Accessed at Stanford University Libraries Office of Special Collections, Stanford, CA.
16 Allee, W. C. The Social Life of Animals. New York: W. W. Norton, 1938.
17 Wilson, E. O. Naturalist. New York: Warner Books, 1994.
18 Dayton, P. K., and E. Sala. “Natural History: The Sense of Wonder, Creativity, and Progress in Ecology.” Scientia Marina 65 (2001): 199–206; and Dayton, P. K., “The Importance of the Natural Sciences to Conservation.” American Naturalist 162 (2003): 1–13.
19 Marshall, S. “Applying Evolutionary Concepts Outside Biology.” Trends in Ecology & Evolution 24, no. 8 (2009): 412–413.
20 Ibid.
21 Vermeij, G. Nature: An Economic History. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2004.
22 May, Robert M., Simon A. Levin, and George Sugihara. “Ecology for Bankers.” Nature 451 (2008): 893–895.
23 Nesse, R. M., and G. C. Williams. Why We Get Sick: The New Science of Darwinian Medicine. New York: Vintage, 1994. Armbuster, Peter. “The Sun Rises (Slowly) on Darwinian Medicine.” Trends in Ecology and Evolution. 23, no. 8; 422–423.
24 Benyus, J. Biomimicry: Innovation Inspired by Nature. New York: William Morrow, 1997. See also http://www.biomimicryinstitute.org/.
CHAPTER THREE
1 Geddes, Lisa. “I’m Planning to Throw Rocks at You.” NewScientist. March 14, 2009, p. 10.
2 Roach, John. “Newfound Octopus Impersonates Fish, Snakes.” National Geographic News. September 21, 2001. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2001/09/0920_octopusmimic.html. “Mimic octopus.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mimic_Octopus. Both accessed July 14, 2010.
3 LePage, Michael. “Gene Machine.” NewScientist. November 22, 2008, pp. 44–47.
4 Ten Cate, C., and C. Rowe. “Biases in Signal Evolution: Learning Makes a Difference.” Trends in Ecology & Evolution 22, no. 7 (2007): 380–387.
5 Spinney, Laura. “Tools Maketh the Monkey.” NewScientist. October 11, 2008, pp. 42–45.
6 Kenney, Michael. From Pablo to Osama: Trafficking and Terrorist Networks, Government Bureaucracies, and Competitive Adaptation. University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press, 2007. Pp. 82–83.
7 Gopnik, Alison. “When We Were Butterflies.” NewScientist. August 1, 2009; and Gopnik, Alison. The Philosophical Baby: What Children’s Minds Tell Us About Truth, Love, and the Meaning of Life. New York: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 2009.
8 Churchland, Patricia Smith. “How Do Neurons Know?” Daedalus. Winter 2004: 42–50.
9 Gobet, F., and H. Simon. “Expert Chess Memory: Revisiting the Chunking Hypothesis.” Memory 6 (1998): 225–255.
10 Gladwell, Malcolm. “The Physical Genius.” The New Yorker. August 2, 1999.
11 Johnson, Dominic D., and Elizabeth M. P. Madin. “Paradigm Shifts in Security Strategy: Why Does It Take Disasters to Trigger Change?” Pp. 159–185 in Raphael Sagarin and Taylor Terence, eds., Natural Security: A Darwinian Approach to a Dangerous World. Berkeley: University of California Press, 2008.
12 Kim, Daniel H. “The Link Between Individual and Organizational Learning.” Sloan Management Review 35, no. 1 (1993): 37–50.
13 Garvin, D. A., A. C. Edmondson, and F. Gino. “Is Yours a Learning Organization?” Harvard Business Review 86, no. 3 (2008): 109ff.
14 Wears, R. L. “Still Learning to Learn.” Quality and Safety in Health Care 12 (2003): 470–471.
15 Arreguin-Toft, Ivan. “How the Weak Win Wars: A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict.” International Security 26, no. 1 (2001): 93–128.
16 Krueger, A. B. The National Origins of Foreign Fighters in Iraq. 2006. Available at http://www.aeaweb.org/annual_mtg_papers/2007/0105_1430_1601.pdf . Accessed July 14, 2010.
17 Vermeij, Nature: An Economic History.
18 The White House. “The Federal Response to Hurricane Katrina: Lessons Learned.” Washington, DC, 2006.
19 Media Matters. “Fox News Contributor Mike Huckabee Falsely Claimed ‘Not One Drop of Oil Was Spilled’ During Hurricane Katrina.” July 27, 2008. http://mediamatters.org/research/200806270005. Accessed August 29, 2010.
20 Broad, William. “Taking Lessons from What Went Wrong.” New York Times, July 19, 2010.
21 Garvin, D. A. “Building a Learning Organization.” Harvard Business Review 71, no. 4 (1993): 78–91.
22 Ibid.
23 Weardon, Graeme. “BP’s Deepwater Horizon Costs Hit $1.25bn” Guardian. June 7, 2010. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jun/07/bp-deepwater-horizon-costs-soar. Accessed August 30, 2010.
24 Johnson, Dominic D., and Elizabeth M. P. Madin. “Paradigm Shifts in Security Strategy: Why Does It Take Disasters to Trigger Change?” Pp. 159–185 in Raphael Sagarin and Taylor Terence, eds., Natural Security: A Darwinian Approach to a Dangerous World. Berkeley: University of California Press, 2008.
25 March, J. G., L. S. Sproull, and M. Tamuz. “Learning from Samples of One or Fewer.” Organizational Science 2 (1991): 1–13.
26 Barlow, Nora. The Autobiography of Charles Darwin: 1809–1882. New York: W. W. Norton, 1958.
27 March, Sproull, and Tamuz, “Learning from Samples of One or Fewer.”
28 Attenborough, David. Amazing Rare Things: The Art of Natural History in the Age of Discovery. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2007.
29 Gopnik, Alison. The Philosophical Baby. What Children’s Minds Tell Us About Truth, Love, and the Meaning of Life. New York: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 2009.
30 National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States. “The 9/11 Commission Report.” Washington, DC, 2004. Several major news organizations and private blogs from different political persuasions used the “failure of imagination” line in their headlines or ledes in coverage following the release of the report, including: National Public Radio, http://www.npr.org/911hearings/; Perrspectives, http://www.perrspectives.com/blog/archives/000010.htm; Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, http://www.rferl.org/content/article/1053987.html; the Christian Science Monitor, http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0723/p01s03-uspo.html; and CNN.com, http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/07/22/911.report/index.html. All accessed August 29, 2010.
CHAPTER FOUR
1 Vermeij, G. J. Evolution and Escalation: An Ecological History of Life. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1987.
2 Churchland, Patricia Smith. “How Do Neurons Know?” Daedalus. Winter 2004: 42–50.
3 Kai Hakkarainen, Kirsti Lonka, and Sami Paavola. 2004. “Networked Intelligence: How Can Human Intelligence Be Augmented Through Artifacts, Communities, and Networks?” Draft paper. http://www.lime.ki.se/uploads/images/517/Hakkarainen_Lonka_Paavola.pdf. Accessed August 31, 2010.
4 Vermeij, G. Nature: An Economic History, Princeton, NJ: Princeton
University Press, 2004, pp. 140–141. Gatesy, S. M., and K. P. Dial. “Locomotor Modules and the Evolution of Avian Flight.” Evolution 50 (1996): 331–340.
5 Levin, Simon A. Fragile Dominion. Cambridge, MA: Perseus, 1999.
6 In Tamm, E. E. Beyond the Outer Shores: The Untold Odyssey of Ed Ricketts, the Pioneering Ecologist Who Inspired John Steinbeck and Joseph Campbell. New York: Thunder’s Mouth Press, 2004, p. 256.
7 Schmitt, Eric, and David Johnston. “States Chafing at U.S. Focus on Terrorism.” New York Times, May 26, 2008.
8 Personal comment from the Department of Transportation Maritime Authority, March 2009.
9 Cullins, Douglas. Operational Adaptation Conference. Edinburgh, UK. Personal comments to author on June 23, 2010.
10 Hawken, P. Blessed Unrest: How the Largest Movement in the World Came into Being and Why No One Saw It Coming. New York: Viking, 2007.
11 Ibid., pp. 141–144.
12 Brafman, O., and R. A. Beckstrom. The Starfish and the Spider: The Unstoppable Power of Leaderless Organizations. New York: Penguin Group, 2006.
13 http://www.gvfi.org/. Accessed August 26, 2010.
14 Geddes, Linda. “Disease Maps Can Turn a Crisis Around.” NewScientist, March 21, 2009, pp. 16–17.
15 Iyer, Bala, and Thomas H. Davenport. “Reverse Engineering Google’s Innovation Machine.” Harvard Business Review, April 1, 2008, pp. 58–68.
16 Ginsberg, J., M. H. Mohebbi, R. S. Patel, L. Brammer, M. S. Smolinski, and L. Brilliant. “Detecting Influenza Epidemics Using Search Engine Query Data.” Nature 457, no. 7232 (2009): 1012-U4.
17 Glasheen, Jeff. “Spanish Flu Redux.” The Hospitalist. October 2009. http://www.the-hospitalist.org/details/article/366815/Spanish_Flu_Redux.html . “Pandemic Influenza Awareness Week, Day 1: History of Pandemic Influenza.” Aetiology. October 3, 2005. http://aetiology.blogspot.com/2005/10/pandemic-influenza-awareness-week-day.html. Both accessed August 26, 2010.
18 A bit of Internet research attributes this widely circulated quote to either mathematician Robert Low or physicist Richard Feynman. See http://frictionary.blogspot.com/2006_04_01_archive.html or http://www.uptoolate.com/rick/memetic/archives/000152.html. Both accessed April 19, 2010.
19 Trivedi, Bijal. “Thought Control.” NewScientist, March 1, 2008, pp. 44–47.
20 Krebs, Valdis E. “Mapping Networks of Terrorist Cells.” Connections 24, no. 3 (2002): 43–52.
21 Sageman, M. “A Strategy for Fighting International Islamist Terrorists.” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 618 (2008): 223–231.
22 Gertler, Jeremiah. “V-22 Osprey Tilt-Rotor Aircraft: Background and Issues for Congress.” Congressional Research Service Report 7–5700. December 22, 2009.
23 “V-22 Osprey Tilt-Rotor Aircraft Congressional Research Service Report for Congress.” Christopher Bolkcom, Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress. Updated January 7, 2005.
24 “Osprey Deployment a Learning Experience.” http://www.navytimes.com/news/2009/08/marine_osprey_082109w/. Accessed April 13, 2010.
25 Walton, Marsha. “Robots Fail to Complete Grand Challenge: $1 Million Prize Goes Unclaimed.” CNN, May 6, 2004. http://www.cnn.com/2004/TECH/ptech/03/14/darpa.race/index.html. Boyle, Alan. “Rough Ride for Robots, but Humans Smiling.” Msnbc.com, March 14, 2004. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4517001. Both accessed April 27, 2010.
26 http://www.smartgear.org/. Accessed April 19, 2010.
27 Bowman, Zach. “Edmunds Announces Official Rules for $1 Million Sudden Acceleration Contest.” Edmunds.com. April 6, 2010. http://www.autoblog.com/2010/04/06/edmunds-announces-official-rules -for-1-million-sudden-accelerat/?icid=main|htmlws-main-w|dl6|link4 |http%3A%2F%2Fwww.autoblog.com%2F2010%2F04%2F06%2Fedmunds-announces-official-rules-for-1-million-sudden-accelerat%2F. Accessed August 30, 2010.
28 “Offbeat Ideas for Cleaning the Oil Spill.” PRI.org. May 27, 2010. http://www.pri.org/business/social-entrepreneurs/off-beat-ideas-for-cleaning-the-oil-spill2015.html . Accessed August 30, 2010.
29 Chaudhuri, Saabira. “250,000-Strong Facebook Group Finds Owner of Lost Camera.” Livemint.com. November 4, 2009. http://www.livemint.com/2009/11/04001331/250000-strong-Facebook-group.html?h=B; and Ifoundyourcamera.net. http://www.ifoundyourcamera.net/. Both accessed August 30, 2010.
30 Thompson, Mark. “V-22 Osprey: A Flying Shame.” Time, September 26, 2007.
CHAPTER FIVE
1 Vermeij, G. Nature: An Economic History. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2004.
2 Arreguin-Toft, Ivan. “How the Weak Win Wars: A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict.” International Security 26, no. 1 (2001): 93–128.
3 Wasson, Kerstin, and Bruce E. Lyon. “Flight or Fight: Flexible Antipredatory Strategies in Porcelain Crabs.” Behavioral Ecology 16, no. 6 (2005): 1037–1041.
4 Arquilla, John. “The Coming Swarm.” Sunday Opinion, New York Times, February 15, 2009.
5 Krakauer, D. C., and V. A. Jansen. “Red Queen Dynamics of Protein Translation. Journal of Theoretical Biology 218 (2002): 97–109.
6 Hutchinson, G. E. “An Homage to Santa Rosalia, or Why Are There So Many Kinds of Animals?” American Naturalist 93, no. 870 (1959): 145–159. The quote maybe apocryphal.
7 Meyer, Axel, and Yves Van de Peer. “‘Natural Selection Merely Modified While Redundancy Created: Susumu Ohno’s Idea of the Evolutionary Importance of Gene and Genome Duplications.” Journal of Structural and Functional Genomics 3 (2003): vii–ix.
8 Holmes, Bob. “Accidental Origins.” NewScientist, March 13, 2010, pp. 30–33; and LePage, “Gene machine,” pp. 44–47.
9 Steinbeck, J., and E. F. Ricketts. Sea of Cortez: A Leisurely Journal of Travel and Research, with a Scientific Appendix Comprising Materials for a Source Book on the Marine Animals of the Panamic Faunal Province. Mamaroneck, NY: P. P. Appel, (1941) 1971.
10 Erlich, Paul, and Anne Erlich. Extinction: The Causes and Consequences of the Disappearance of Species. New York: Random House, 1981.
11 Kish, Daniel. “Seeing with Sound.” NewScientist, April 11, 2009, pp. 31–33.
12 Asch, Peter, Burton G. Malkiel, and Richard E. Quandt. “Racetrack Betting and Informed Behavior.” Journal of Financial Economics 10, no. 2 (1982): 187–194. There is some variation in the success of different bettors, however.
13 Wikipedia. “Futures exchange.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_exchange. Accessed April 20, 2010.
14 Chittka L., P. Skorupski, and N. E. Raine. “Speed-Accuracy Tradeoffs in Animal Decision Making.” Trends in Ecology & Evolution 24 (2009): 400–407.
15 “Crowdsourcing the Crystal Ball.” http://www.forbes.com/2007/10/13/james-surowiecki-prediction-tech-future07-cx_js_1015wisdom.html. Accessed April 20, 2010.
16 Ananthaswamy, Anil. “Mobilising the Minds of the Masses.” NewScientist, February 14, 2009, pp. 20–21.
17 C. Josh Donlan, Joel Berger, Carl E. Bock, Jane H. Bock, David A. Burney, James A. Estes, Dave Foreman, Paul S. Martin, Gary W. Roemer, Felisa A. Smith, Michael E. Soulé, and Harry W. Greene. “Pleistocene Rewilding: An Optimistic Agenda for Twenty-First Century Conservation.” American Naturalist 168, no. 5 (2006).
18 James T. Mandel, C. Josh Donlan, and Jonathan Armstrong. “A Derivative Approach to Endangered Species Conservation.” Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 8, no. 1 (2010): 44–49. doi: 10.1890 /070170.
19 “Regulators Approve Movie Box Office Futures Market.” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/16/regulators-approve-movie-_n_541085.html . Accessed April 20, 2010.
20 “New Box Office Futures Market Could Allow You to Bet on Movies.” http://www.switched.com/2010/04/19/new-box-office-futures-market-could-allow-you-to-bet-on-movies/ . Accessed April 20, 2010.
21 “Amid Furor, Pentagon Kills Terrorism Futures Market.” http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/07/29/terror.market/. Accessed April 20, 2010.
22 “The Case for Terrorism Futures.” http://www.wired.com/politics/law/news/2003/07/59818. Accessed April 20, 2010.
>
23 Vespignani, A. “Complex Networks: The Fragility of Interdependency.” Nature 464 (2010): 984–985.
24 Berlow, Eric. “How Complexity Leads to Simplicity.” TED talks. July 2010. Oxford, England. http://blog.ted.com/2010/11/12/how-complexity-leads-to-simplicity-eric-berlow-on-ted-com/ . Accessed April 15, 2011.
25 Barabasi, A.-L. Linked. London: Penguin, 2003.
26 Sageman, M. “A Strategy for Fighting International Islamist Terrorists.” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 618 (2008): 223–231. Atran, Scott. Statement Before the Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Emerging Threats & Capabilities, “Pathways to and From Violent Extremism: The Case for Science-Based Field Research.” March 10, 2010.
27 Krebs, Valdis E. “Mapping Networks of Terrorist Cells.” Connections 24 (2002): 43–52.
28 Jordan, F. “Network Analysis Links Parts to the Whole.” Pp. 240–260 in Raphael Sagarin and Terence Taylor, eds., Natural Security: A Darwinian Approach to a Dangerous World. Berkeley: University of California Press, 2008.
29 Buldyrev, S. V., R. Parshani, G. Paul, H. E. Stanley, and S. Havlin. “Catastrophic Cascade of Failures in Interdependent Networks.” Nature 464 (2010): 1025–1028; and Vespignani, “Complex Networks: The Fragility of Interdependency.”
30 Vespignani, “Complex Networks: The Fragility of Interdependency.”
CHAPTER SIX
1 http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0086567/quotes. Accessed July 30, 2010.
2 Scheffer, Marten. “Alternative Stable States and Regime Shifts in Ecosystems.” Pp. 395–406 in Simon A. Levin, ed., The Princeton Guide to Ecology, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2010.
3 http://www.suddenoakdeath.org/html/history___background.html. Accessed August 2, 2010.
4 Biosphere2. http://www.b2science.org/b2/about-history.html. Accessed August 2, 2010.
5 Alvarez, Luis W., Walter Alvarez, Frank Asaro, and Helen V. Michel. “Extraterrestrial Cause for the Cretaceous-Tertiary Extinction: Experimental Results and Theoretical Interpretation.” Science 208 (1980): 4448.