by David Poyer
Compact, gray-suited, platinum-haired, the national security adviser gave her an avuncular smile as he took his seat. “Ed,” she murmured unwillingly.
“Finally, no more ‘Dr. Szerenci.’ About time.” He took off horn-rims and polished the lenses with a handkerchief. Without their frames his face sagged like wet clay. “Any … news about Dan?”
She shook her head, looking down, focusing on her notes.
A Marine colonel opened with sobering news, the kind you didn’t hear on television. Iran was taking over islands and oil platforms in the Gulf. The Saudis were fighting back, but losing. A new crisis loomed on the southern front, where Vietnamese forces faced the Chinese on a line south of Hanoi. The Vietnamese army was reeling back under a massive ground offensive, with horrendous losses on both sides. The Chinese were also reopening their offensive against India, where the mountain fighting had stalemated up to now.
“The war’s still spreading,” the briefer said. “One or more of our frontline allies—Saudi, India, Vietnam—may be knocked out. Forced to ask for terms.”
Szerenci rubbed his face. “Someone mentioned sending reinforcements. To stiffen them. The Viets, I mean. An armored brigade. Is that possible?”
Beside her Vincenzo shook his head. The chairman said, “We’ve discussed this, Doctor. The Army’s not ready for sustained major-power ground war. We let our heavy units rot while we fought counterinsurgency in the Middle East.
“It took nearly two years in the last war before we could seize the offensive in the Pacific. Until the middle of ’43. And in some ways, we’re not doing as well this time.”
“Are any forces available?” Szerenci massaged sunken eye sockets.
“We’re working on it. But if we commit untrained troops, the slants will grind them up.”
“So what’s our response?”
“Continue to build up in depth. Bring the new weapons forward. Stockpile a robust inventory. Train. Ask me again a year from now, I might say yes. Even then, I’ll fight any landing on the mainland.” He sighed. “For Vietnam … maybe a second bomb wing to the base at Da Nang. Step up weapons shipments. But they’ll have to hold on their own.”
“I see,” Szerenci said. “Any other opinions?”
Faulcon cleared his throat. “I don’t mean to disagree. But I’ve studied Grant’s campaigns. Usually, in a battle, there’s a lull after the first engagements. Whoever renews action first usually ends in possession of the field.
“The chairman’s right about needing to work up ground forces. But we should move sooner rather than later.”
“Thank you, General Faulcon, General Vincenzo. We’ll leave the final decision to the president, advised by the SecDef.” Szerenci nodded. “But I’m sure he’ll take everyone’s opinion into account. Blair, will you—?”
“I’m seeing the secretary right after this meeting.”
The briefing resumed. The DIA rep explained a split in what he called the “consensus of the intelligence community.” The questions were whether Zhang was contemplating further aggression, and how much the People’s Empire was hurting internally.
“We get varying indicators. Special intelligence sources confirm a pullback of air and remaining naval forces in response to Operation Recoil. Apparently our invasion of Itbayat and the raid on Ningbo were successful in interrupting any plan for a second pulse eastward, to the Marianas and Guam.
“Internally, there’s unrest, yes, and some indications of spot famine. But the Internal Security forces are still robust and General Chagatai’s repressions in Hong Kong seem to have quieted things down. We have hopes of nurturing trouble in Xianjiang, though.”
Blair had been doodling on the edges of her yellow pad. A bee. Then another, on the page beneath. And another, each in a slightly different position. “My concern,” she put in, “is the recent statement of support from Moscow. Support for Zhang, that is. Is Russia going to take part? That would put a different complexion on the war.”
“I agree. We can’t take on another enemy just now. Shira, anything to contribute?” Szerenci turned to a slender, small-boned black woman.
The State rep was about Blair’s age, in a hip-length slate tunic and fitted black trousers. Blair knew Shira from her time with Armed Services, in the Senate. Salyers wore smooth, straight bangs across a high forehead. “State suspects Moscow may take this opportunity to move on the Baltic states while we’re occupied in the Pacific. But we don’t see them overtly taking China’s side.”
“Elaborate, please,” Szerenci said. “Can the EU hold the line in eastern Europe? Right now, all our forces are in the Pacific, except for placeholders opposite Iran.”
“Um, well, as far as the EU … they’re debating their response. The Russians are also selling Beijing arms, of course. Missiles. Updates to the Shkval torpedo. The new tanks.”
The CIA rep lifted a hand. “Apparently, one reason Russia’s supporting Zhang—other than that he’s fighting us—is that the premier’s threatened Mongolia and the Russian Federation republic of Tyva. Essentially, ‘Stand behind me, or Russia loses territory in the east.’”
Drawing another bee, Blair murmured, “Could we delaminate the two? Surely their interests diverge. And Russians don’t react well to threats.”
State, her head down, said, “We’re staying alert for any opportunity. Um, on the plus side, the Japanese are moving toward renewed participation in the war. They want to retake Okinawa.”
Vincenzo explored his teeth with the point of a pencil. “Will they help elsewhere?”
“An open question. You can put that peer-to-peer with the Self-Defense Forces leadership. At least, they might cooperate on logistics and air and missile defense. The way we did before we had to withdraw from Korea.”
“We can offer support in the Ryukyus,” Blair said. “Reintegrate them gradually into joint operations.”
“They’re still wary,” the State rep pointed out, fingering her bangs. “Until they get their own deterrent in place, um, they’re going to be skittish about an overt alliance.”
An Air Force general leaned forward. “We can offer deterrent coverage.”
“Why trust us?” Vincenzo said bluntly. “Zhang wiped out a whole carrier group with a nuclear weapon, and we held back. That doesn’t inspire confidence in our willingness to protect anyone else.”
“The president wants…,” Szerenci began, then fell silent. Blair frowned. What had he been about to say? But the usual smooth emendation emerged. “He wants recommendations. What are we going to tell him? Nick?”
Admiral Niles lumbered to his feet. He’d always been big, but the stress of the past year had thickened the CNO’s frame even more, as well as thinning his never-all-that-plentiful hair. “The destruction of the Chinese wolf pack in the central Pacific by Admiral Lenson”—he gave Blair a nod—“and others has cleared our supply lines. We’re completing fleetwide upgrades. Improved missile defense, better antitorpedo capabilities, uparmoring, and enhancing signature management for self-protection. A new cruiser class, more jeep carriers, and forty more autonomous submarines will be operational soon.”
He cleared his throat into a fist. Really, she thought, he didn’t sound healthy. “We’re isolating what will be the ultimate battlefields. Our subs are continuing the blockade of the South China coast. They’re taking losses. We don’t know why … they just don’t report back in. But Admiral Lianfeng’s Southern Fleet is either wiped out or sealed into their ports. Our drone subs, recharged from isotope-fueled supercapacitors on the seabed, are cutting Taiwan off from the mainland. Eventually, we may be able to strand half a million occupation troops.
“The carriers. George Washington has finally been repaired and will be operational again soon. We’ll have the new FDR in workup shortly as well. With Nimitz, Vinson, Stennis, Reagan, and Lincoln, that will mean seven carrier battle groups in the Pacific this spring, plus another eight light carriers optimized to handle deep-strike AAVs. Pretty certainly, that’ll be as m
any as we’ll ever be able to surge.”
Niles took a turn around the room, big hands locked behind him. “Operation Recoil dented their confidence. But two years into the war, I agree—we’ve got to take the offensive. Or, as I’ve said before, the situation on the ground becomes the status quo.
“Plus, even a peripheral offensive could take the pressure off the Vietnamese and Indians.” He stretched massive arms until the joints cracked. “Iran’s making hay in the Gulf. But we can’t stop them.”
“We can deal with that after China’s defeated,” Vincenzo said.
“Well, I believe you’re right, Mr. Chairman,” Szerenci said. “But, unfortunately, so is the CNO.”
The national security adviser folded his hands and rested his chin on them, peering into the far distance. He murmured, almost too low to hear, “This is what Ehrenburg called ‘Deep War.’ Like the Somme. Or Stalingrad.
“Blair, I know you’re uncomfortable with our suspension of habeas corpus and the First and Second Amendments. So am I, frankly. But we’re finally committing to total war and total victory. The Hill’s approved a full military draft, including women. Industry’s still clearing the wreckage from the Cloudburst, but we’re fully converted to defense production.”
He nodded to Vincenzo. “Ricardo, I understand we’re still not that well trained. But Nick’s right too. Recoil threw a stick in their wheels. Now we have to start running the game.”
He pointed to Lipsey. “Abe, what’s Plans come up with?”
The sparrowlike general hopped to his feet as a wall screen came on. The JCS logo: four crossed swords behind a shield, encircled by the laurel wreath of victory.
“Utilizing mainly naval, air, and Marine forces, but with limited Army participation, J-3’s planned a two-pronged offensive. Attacks on both coasts, to divide their forces. Preceded by intense information-denial operations and cyber raids, to confuse and interrupt command and control.”
The screen showed the southern coast of China.
“The southern phase will be called Operation Uppercut. A major raid on the naval bases on Hainan Island, accompanied by strikes on other military assets along the contiguous coast to Hong Kong. Supported by light carriers, it will include Australian, Indian, and some Vietnamese participation. We envision it taking place in three phases, extending over roughly a week, and ending with the destruction of the Southern Fleet and reduction of their air power and ability to stage further aggression in the South China Sea.
“As a downstream benefit, regaining battle space dominance will free us for follow-on strikes along the flank of the enemy armies in northern Vietnam, keeping Hanoi in the war.”
The Plans chief called up a third slide. “The northern phase will be the step we’ve discussed before as a possible follow-on to the seizure of Itbayat: the landing on Taiwan and the eventual liberation of that island.”
Vincenzo was shaking his head already. Blair tensed, leaning forward in her chair.
“Following a carrier surge west, Operation Causeway would land a full U.S. Marine division and supporting forces to link up with General Luong Shucheng’s guerrillas in the eastern mountains. Simultaneously, an Army corps will land in the south. It’ll be a bitter struggle. But since we’ll control the air, with the carrier groups and Air Force support out of the new field at Itbayat, we can reinforce as the Guard divisions complete training and come online.”
Silence haunted the room. At last Szerenci said gently, “You left something out. About Hainan.”
Lipsey looked away. “The sub pens are under a mountain. Protected by millions of tons of rock and concrete. Conventional penetrating bombs won’t destroy them. We’re considering a penetrating nuclear warhead. Unfortunately, or perhaps by design, there’s a city, Sanya, half a million people, only a few miles away.
“As I said, we’re still modeling. The results aren’t conclusive yet.”
Szerenci gestured around the table. “Opinions? Objections? On the plan as a whole, or on either prong?”
He was looking at her. She thumbed the edge of the legal pad, making the pages flicker so the bee darted angrily back and forth. Finally she murmured, “I’m inclined to agree with Nick. It’s time for an offensive. At least a limited one. Not on the mainland—I’m with Ricardo there.
“But … listen.” She spread her hands. “I’ve seen war. In the Gulf, in Ashaara, in Iraq. But even war has to have limits. Restraint’s the only way to end this conflict without major losses on both sides. Yes, China went nuclear. And hurt us. Badly. But if we escalate too … there’s no telling where this will end. Nowhere good, for anyone.”
Szerenci nodded, lips pursed. He turned to Glancey. “Doctor?”
The professor lifted his eyebrows. “Unfortunately, modern wars don’t terminate when both adversaries are equally balanced. Unless both are totally exhausted, their economies wrecked. And often, not even then.
“In this case … I have to come down on Ed’s side, Blair. Overwhelming force has to be demonstrated by one side, so the impossibility of victory is accepted by the other. Sometimes that happens militarily. Sometimes psychologically. In a few cases, by economic collapse. Human beings seem unable to accept stalemate.” He sighed. “Especially after sacrifices have been made, outrages publicized, populations mobilized.”
“Thanks, Kev. Anyone else?”
Vincenzo scowled down at the table. “Hainan, a raid—okay. But Taiwan’s a bridge too far. Like I said, we’re not ready. We don’t have the forces. We don’t have the surface connectors—the landing craft. Our studies say five divisions. Even then, we might get kicked back into the sea.”
Szerenci pulled off his glasses again. Leaned back, as if he were lecturing in the classroom once more. “All right. Thank you for your opinions.
“As far as second use. I respect your arguments, Blair. But we have to get past squeamishness. We let them achieve strategic parity. I warned about that years ago, but we didn’t act. Then, when hostilities began, we didn’t retaliate against their first use of nuclear weapons. A major mistake, I think, but I was overruled. They perceived weakness, and may well strike again.
“These are unpleasant truths. But we have to rid ourselves of illusions.”
He closed his eyes and massaged his cheeks. “We had to kill five percent of the Japanese population to convince them to surrender. The only way to win this war may be the same: kill enough Chinese that they turn against Zhang.
“Unfortunately, you can’t regenerate a heavy deterrent overnight. And the previous administration didn’t leave us in good shape.”
Was he looking at her? “It was Congress that imposed sequestration,” she corrected. “They postponed strategic modernization. Not the White House.”
He shrugged. “Whatever. But we fell behind, while Beijing accelerated. We’ve doubled the warhead numbers on our heavy missiles. Reactivated three thousand tactical nukes from inventory. And improved our antimissile defenses.
“If Zhang wants a showdown, toe to toe, we may finally be able to take him on.” Szerenci paused. “But only if we strike first.”
Blair had started to set the bee flying again, but at his words a shudder threaded her spine. The old injury in her hip flamed. “A central nuclear exchange?”
Niles grunted, “Zhang started this game. When he wiped out our battle group.”
She felt unreal. Detached. As if she could leave her body and float up from this long table, at which the end of the world was being discussed as if it were a video game. She forced words through breathlessness. “I’m sorry, that’s just … insane. Not retaliating is the one thing we’ve done right so far in this war. The only way we can hope for a final decision without destroying both countries. What’s going on back-channel, to see if there’s some other way out? Or is it going to be bomb, bomb, bomb from now on?”
A few looked at her somberly; the rest, down at the table.
“The president will make the final decision,” Szerenci murmured.
&nbs
p; Vincenzo rapped the table. “Then let’s conclude. I suggest a consensus. Yes to Operation Uppercut, in the south, with the nuclear option on the table for now. I still believe we’re not ready for Taiwan. But if the political, I mean, the strategic realities demand an offensive, and if the commandant concurs, we’ll support amphibious raids. To the extent possible. Ed? Is that responsive?”
“It’ll be up to POTUS.” The national security adviser smiled grimly.
They all looked down the table, at the commandant of the Marine Corps. Who said nothing, but simply nodded.
“All right, put that in the minutes. All in favor?”
The vote was six for, one against.
* * *
SHE was leaving when Szerenci called her aside. She clenched her fists, but kept her tone level. “What is it, Ed?”
He took her arm. “Don’t be like that, Blair. Don’t make this personal.”
“You’re playing poker with millions of lives. How can it not be personal? And let go of my arm, please. Now!”
He patted it and released her. “I have a request. We want you to serve on the UN Committee on War Crimes and Atrocities.”
“What?” She blinked. “What the hell are you talking about? And who’s ‘we’?”
“They’re meeting in Dublin next week. Setting up an oversight committee. We need an observer there. To make sure we don’t get tarred and feathered, without having a chance to balance the membership.”
The State rep had come back in. She stood a few feet away, obviously unwilling to interrupt. Blair tugged at her own ear, trying to keep her expression neutral. Was he trying to get her out of the way, so he could push his nuclear option without objection? Then say it was unanimous? “Dublin? Dublin, Ireland? Isn’t that a State job? Or the UN ambassador’s business?”
“State’ll be there too. But the president asked for you by name.”
Oh, right. So he could blame it on her if it turned sour. But the short man was saying, “You mentioned a back channel. Well, the Chinese will want to observe too. You may not be the only one thinking about opening a conversation.” He half turned to the waiting woman. “Something for me, Shira?”