by Tom Phillips
“America’s Sewage System and the Price of Optimism” (Time), 62
Amu Darya water diversion, 58–59, 60
anchoring heuristic, 38–39, 40
Andrée, Salomon, 197
Anglo-Zanzibar War (1896), 159
animals
agriculture and domestication, 76–77
domestication of dogs, 75
draft, and inequality, 96
importation of, to new environments, 77–82, 79, 81, 87–89
anomalous water, 230–31
anthrax outbreak, 268–69
antimicrobial resistance, 279
Aquinas, Thomas, 166
Aral Sea, 57–60
Argentina, 222
Arminius (Germanic tribal leader), 207
Ashanti people of West Africa, 160
Asian tiger mosquitoes, 90
Atahualpa, 222
Athens, 123
atomic bombs, 266, 267
Austin, Thomas, 77–78
Australia
cane toads in, 90
exploration and, 196, 197
rabbits imported, 77–80, 79
Australopithecus afarensis, 19–20, 25–26
autocrats
Abubakari II (emperor of Malia), 170
Ala ad-Din Muhammad II (Shah of Khwarezmian Empire), 212–18, 219
Alulim (Sumerian ruler), 96
Charles VI of France, 118
Christian VII of Denmark, 117
Farouk I of Egypt, 104–6, 105
Genghis Khan, 212–20, 213
Hitler, Adolf, 131–34, 149–51, 266
James I (of England) and VI (of Scotland), 117, 144–45, 182
Joseph II of Austria, 146
Ludwig II of Bavaria, 100–103
Muhammad II (Shah of Khwarezmian Empire), 212–18, 219
Napoleon, 126, 148–49
Niyazov, 106–8, 107
Peter III of Russia, 117
Qin Shi Huang of China, 98–99
rise of, 124–25, 127
war and, 98–99, 124–26
Wilhelm II of Germany, 117
Zhengde Emperor of China, 99–100
See also Ottoman Empire sultans
automobiles, 243–49, 252, 262–63, 269
availability heuristic, 39–40
A World of Wonders as Revealed by the Microscope (Ward), 260–61, 261
Aztecs, 204–6
Bank of England, 181
Battle of Cádiz (1625), 144–45
Battle of Cannae (216 bce), 124–25
Battle of Điện Biên Phủ, 154–55
Battle of Karansebes (1788), 145–46
Battle of Kiska (1943), 151–53
Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba (1961), 156–59
biases, 40–42, 279
biological warfare, dangers of, 80
Bitcoin, 275, 276
blockchain technology, 276
Blondlot, René Prosper, 235, 235–38
Boeung Kak Lake, 70
Bologna, 159
Bosco, 128
Bougainville, Louis-Antoine de, 196
Brazil, 222
Britain
Anglo-Zanzibar War, 159
colonial records in Africa, 174
gray squirrels in, 90
union of England and Scotland, 182–83, 194–95
Vortigern, 222
War of Jenkins’s Ear, 159–60
War of the Golden Stool, 160
Brown, Joshua, 269
Bucaram, Abdalá, 129–30
Buddhas of Bamiyan, Afghanistan, 70
Bukhara, 220
Burke, Robert O’Hara, 177–78, 179
Caesar, 125
the Cage, 109–10, 111, 113
Caledonia, 189
See also Darien colonial scheme
cane toads in Australia, 90
Cantemir, Dimitrie, 114–15
Carrión García, Daniel Alcides, 253
Castro, Fidel, 158
cats in New Zealand, 90
Cavelier, René-Robert, 178
Cecil, Sir Edward, 144–45
chain letters, 264
Chamberlain, Neville, 266, 266
Chamber Pot Rebellion, 160
Charles I (King of England), 144
Charles VI (King of France), 118
Charpentier, Augustin, 236
China
Four Pests campaign, 83–86
Ming dynasty, 207–8
Qin Shi Huang, 98–99
unification of, 98
Zhengde Emperor, 99–100
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), 250–51, 252, 279
choice-supportive bias, 41–42
Christian VII (King of Denmark), 117
civilization, as product of human brain, 33–34
Clark, William, 244
Clarke, R. D., 37
Cleveland, Ohio, 61–64, 63
Cleveland Plain Dealer, 62
climate change, 268–69, 277–79
“clustering illusion,” 36–37
cobra effect, 135
Cold War, 229–33
Collapse (Diamond), 68, 69
Columbus, Christopher
explorations by, 165–68
religion and, 174
Taíno people and, 204
sinking of Santa María, 170
Company of Scotland, 183–86, 187–88, 189–90, 193, 194
computers, 267–68
confirmation bias, 40–41
Congo, 175
Corte-Real brothers, 168
Cortés, Hernán, 204–6
crime and leaded gasoline, 248
cryptocurrencies, 275–77
Cuba, 156–59
culture, as product of human brain, 33–34
Cumming, Hugh, 247
Curthose, Robert, 160
Cuyahoga River fires, 61–64, 63
dancing manias, 46, 47
danger, brain mechanisms for judging presence of, 40
Darien colonial scheme, 180, 180–81, 182, 183, 187–94, 195
decision-making
choice-supportive bias and, 41–42
by computer algorithms, 279–80
confirmation bias and, 40–41
elections in democracies, 128–34
by Hitler, 132
hubris and, 43
mental shortcuts and, 36, 38–40
modesty and, 43
rise of rulers and, 96
snap judgments, 40
decision-making failures
Battle of Cádiz, 144–45
Battle of Karansebes, 145–46
Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba, 156–59
Điện Biên Phủ, 154–55
Hitler’s invasion of Russia, 149–51, 151
Kiska, 151–53
Napoleon’s invasion of Russia, 148–49
Siege of Petersburg (Virginia), 146–47
taking of Guam, 147–48
deforestation on Rapa Nui, 66–69
Delco, 244
democracy
citizenship and, 124
development of, 123
devolvement into dictatorships, 124–25
elections, 128–34
Deryagin, Boris, 230
Diamond, Jared, 54–55, 68, 69
dictators. See autocrats
Điện Biên Phủ, Vietnam, 154–55
Dietrich, Otto, 132, 133
Digital Equipment Corporation, 267–68
diplomacy
defined, 203
enemy’s enemy delusion, 208–11
, 210
examples of failures of, 222
isolationism and, 207–8
mistake of friendliness and trust, 204–7
power balance shifts and, 208–11
rejection of pacts and, 212–20
dirty water, 232–33
Discover, 54–55
diseases
agriculture and, 54
antimicrobial-resistant, 279
in colonies, 190–91
warming world and, 268–69
Dobrovolski, Georgiy, 267
doges, 125–26
dogs, 75, 76, 128
Dunning, David, 43
Dunning–Kruger effect, 43
Duplessis orphans, 135–36
Dust Bowl, 57, 58, 82
Dutch East India Company, 184–85
dynamite, 264
Easter Island (Rapa Nui), 66–69
East India Company, 183–84
economic predictions, 265, 268
Egypt, 96
Einstein, Albert, 266
El Salvador, 159
engine knock solutions, 242–46, 251–52
England. See Britain; United Kingdom
environment
agricultural and technological changes to, 55–61, 64–65, 83–86
breeding and development of new species, 82–83
CFCs in, 250–51, 252, 279
Cleveland clean-up laws, 63
cryptocurrencies and, 275–77
diseases and warming world, 268–69
human communication and changes to, 33–34
industry and changes to, 61–64, 63
introduction of new animal species to, 77–82, 79, 81, 87–89
introduction of new plant species to, 82
lead in, 247–48
spiritual and political causes of change, 66–69
Eratosthenes, 167
Eriksdottir, Freydis, 169
Eriksson, Leif, 168–69
Erik the Red, 169
ethanol, 244–45
Ethyl fuel, 245
eugenics, 239–40
Eurocentric thinking, 168–69, 172
European colonialism
basis of arguments for benefits of, 172–73
as bringer of enlightened governance and rule of law, 173–75
Columbus and, 170, 174, 204
consequences of, 171–72
financial institutions, 182
incompetence of explorers, 167–68, 176–81, 179, 196–97
incompetence of financiers and planners, 180–81, 182, 183, 187–94, 195
European exploration
Álvares Cabral, Pedro, 168
Columbus, 165–68, 170, 174, 204
Corte-Real brothers, 168
Cortés, 204–6
examples of failed expeditions, 196–97
Vikings, 168–69
Evans, John, 196
evolution
antimicrobial resistance and, 279
of human brain, 35
human communication and, 33
“fake news,” 44
Farouk I of Egypt, 104–6, 105
Fedyakin, Nikolai, 230
financial manias, 46, 186
Fisher, Irving, 265
flat-earth theory, 166–67
Football War (1969), 159
Four Pests campaign, 83–86
Frigidaire, 250
Fuller, Richard Buckminster, 266
Galton, Francis, 238–39
garbage, 65, 65–66
Gatling, Richard, 264
General Motors, 244–45, 249–50
genetics, 108–9, 239–41
Genghis Khan, 212–20, 213
Germany
eugenics in Nazi, 240
Hitler and, 131–34, 149–51, 266
Lenin and, 208–9
N-rays, 237
X-rays, 236
Zimmerman Telegram, 222
gray squirrels, 90
Great Pacific Trash Vortex, 66
Great Wall of China, 98
greed
financial manias, 46, 186
solution to engine knocking and, 243–45
tragedy of the commons and, 44–45
wishful thinking and, 44
groupthink, 42–43
Guam, 147–48
Guiyu, China, 65, 65
Gulf of Mexico dead zone, 64–65
Hamilton, Alexander, 189, 193
Hanfstaengl, Ernst, 132–33
Hannibal, 124–25
Harappan civilization, 142–43
Herostratus, 69
Hispaniola, 170–71
history, accuracy of, 25
Hitler, Adolf, 131–34, 149–51, 266
The Hitler I Knew (Dietrich), 132
Holland, John, 187
Homo neanderthalensis, 32–33
Homo sapiens
extinction of Neanderthals and, 32–33
meaning of term, 33
migration out of Africa, 31
Honduras, 159
Horton, Mark, 195
hubris, 22, 43
human brain
ability to imagine futures, 21
ability to see mental models from patterns that are communicated to others, 33
choice-supportive bias, 41–42
confirmation bias and, 40–41
development of society/culture, 33–34
evolution of, 35
faulty spotting of patterns, 36–37
mechanisms for judging danger, 40
mental shortcuts and, 36, 38–40
Huskisson, William, 263–64
Ibrahim (Sultan of Ottoman Empire), 113–15
“illusory correlation,” 36–37
imagination, making of mental models and, 33
immigration, 127
Inalchuq Qayir-Khan, 215–16
Incas, 222
industry
changes to environment and, 61–64, 63
profit motive and, 243, 244–45, 249
inequality, development of, 96
insects
“Africanized” bees, 82–83
Four Pests campaign and, 84–85
International African Association, 175, 177
Iraq, 211
Ireland
gray squirrels in, 90
unification with England and Scotland, 182, 195
ISIS, 211
Italy, 126
James I (of England) and VI (of Scotland)
death of, 144
unification of crowns of England, Ireland, and Scotland, 182
witch obsession of, 117
Jebel Sahaba, 141
Jefferson, Thomas, 176
Johanson, Donald, 26
Joseph II (Emperor of Austria), 146
Julius Caesar, 125
Kahneman, Daniel, 39
Katskee, Edwin, 253
Kelvin, Lord, 264–65
Kennedy, John F., 156–59
Kerr, Warwick Estevam, 82–83
Kessler, Donald, 280–81
Kessler syndrome, 280–81
Kettering, Charles, 243
Khwarezmian Empire, 212–20
Kösem (mother of Ottoman sultans), 112, 113, 114, 115
Kruger, Justin, 43
Kudlow, Larry, 268
kudzu, 82
Lake Victoria, 80–82
Lasseter, Lewis, 197
laughing epidemics, 46, 47
Lazear, Jesse William, 253
leaded gasoline, 243–49
leaders
earliest, 96
war and, 96–97
See also autocrats; Ottoman Empire sultans
Leber, Brad, 128
Ledyard, John, 176–77
Lenin, Vladimir Ilyich, 208–9, 210
Leopold II (King of Belgium), 175
locusts, 84–85
Lucy, 19–20, 25–26
Ludwig II of Bavaria (“Mad King Ludwig”), 100–103
luminiferous ether, 234
Lysenko, Trofim, 86, 240–41
machine guns, 265
Máel Brigte the Bucktoothed, 22
manias, 46–47, 186, 275–77
Maori, 174
Mao Zedong, 83–85
Marconi, Guglielmo, 265
Mars Climate Orbiter, 227, 228–29
Maxim, Hiram, 265
Maya, 70
McNeil, J. R., 251
Mehmed III (Sultan of Ottoman Empire), 109
mental shortcuts
anchoring heuristic, 38–39, 40
availability heuristic, 39–40
as survival mechanism, 36
Mexica, 204–6
Mexico
Americans in Texas and, 127
San José Mogote, 97
Zimmerman Telegram and, 222
Mexico City, 136
Midgley, Thomas, Jr., 242
about, 241–42
engine knocking and, 242–43, 245, 246
refrigeration and, 249–50
reputation of, 251
Moctezuma, 204–6
Modena, 159
modesty, 43
Mongol Empire, 213–20
Mongols, 208
moons, full, 37–38
Moreira, Gregorio, 157
mosquitoes, 90
Muhammad II (Shah of Khwarezmian Empire), 212–18, 219
Murad IV (Sultan of Ottoman Empire), 112–13
Mustafa I (Sultan of Ottoman Empire), 110–12
mythologization, 174
Napoleon, 126, 148–49
NASA, 227, 228–29
National Review, 268
Native Americans, treaties with, 173–74
Nature, 25–26, 238–39
Navarre, Henri, 154–55
Neanderthals, 32–33
“negative externality,” 45
New Edinburgh, Caledonia, 189, 190
New Scientist, 251
New York Times, 89, 129–30, 245, 265
New Zealand, cats in, 90
Nile perch, 80–82, 81
Nixon, Richard, 156
Niyazov, Saparmurat, 106–8, 107
Nobel, Alfred, 264
Nohmul, 70
Northern snakehead, 90
N-rays, 235–38
nuclear weapons, 266, 267
offspring water, 230
Olsen, Ken, 267
Oppenheimer, Robert, 266
Orton, William, 264
Osman II (Sultan of Ottoman Empire), 111
Ottoman Empire sultans, 108–9
Ahmed I, 109–10
Ibrahim, 113–15
Mehmed III, 109
Murad IV, 112–13