by Yitzhak Nir
The march sounded more dramatically and the camera zoomed in on an iron cage. Inside, wearing an orange overall was a tall black-haired, mustached man whose eyes were not blindfolded. A voice announced in Arabic, verified by the intelligence authority’s translation at the bottom of the screen: Airbase Commander Colonel Aqid Udah Hassan Ashrawi.”
The camera returned to survey the enormous, silent formation, while ISIS guards, masked, wearing black uniforms and holding Kalashnikovs in their hands, forced the whole assembly to stand still and concentrate their gaze on the cage.
“I’ll spare you this scene,” the head of intelligence resumed, “It’s sufficient to state two facts:
“First: they burned him alive in front of all those people you saw previously, while warning them that anyone refusing to carry out their orders to launch missiles towards the selected targets,” he raised his voice, “would share the fate of the base commander!”
Then he continued:
“Secondly, and what is vital for our current position, they announced over loudspeakers and during the video itself that if anyone should attempt to attack them at Al-Dumayr, the ISIS soldiers in the area would execute all army personnel, their families and children, using their preferred methods of beheading, throwing off roofs and burning alive.”
The head of intelligence fell silent, stopped the video and surveyed his listeners with a stern expression.
The prime minister was the first to react:
“So that means that we must attack those missiles before ISIS decides to attack us? Is that what we are dealing with today, Yoav? She turned to her military secretary with a rhetorical flourish.
Yoav Ish-Shalom, her military secretary and prime military adviser, got to his feet:
“Okay, honored gentlemen, since our time is limited and a late start this morning has limited it even more, I would ask you all to concentrate and get to the bottom line. We are all familiar with the material and none of us is surprised this morning. Chief of Staff, sir, please continue.”
General Baruch Almozlino, the chief of staff, continued to sit quietly for a few long moments before he declared:
“Before I give my opinion on the matter, I would like to present the position and suggestions that the air force and intelligence commanders have formulated together.”
“Air Force Commander Shefi, are you ready?”
“Affirmative, Madam Prime Minister.”
Hezi arose, leaving the photos on the table, and began:
“We have no doubt that this is a once-in-a-lifetime chance to get rid of those missiles, not only the ones in Syria, but also those that would be transferred to Hezbollah in future. Our two new “Adir” F-35 squadrons will take on this relatively simple mission, which will also afford them the operational experience they are still lacking. The plans are ready. A warning to the Russians will be issued prior to the attack. Sixteen fighters will take part, eight from each squadron in the first wave, and then, according to results and intelligence, there will be a second wave. Another four to eight foursomes of Ra’am F-15’s and Sufa F-16 Is will be employed to deter and destroy the surrounding radar installations and AA missiles. Everything will take place at night. In less than an hour, the whole business will be completed.”
A thought occurred to Gershon: Hezi Shefi is retiring from his post next month. More than anything else, he wants to be the first air force commander in the world to dispatch the F-35s Adir on a wide-range and full-scale operational attack without being detected. The long-range implications probably don’t concern him in the least...
As for Gershon, he was convinced that purchasing those excessively expensive planes had been a mistake. For years he had tried to convince his air force colleagues in private consultations that with a much smaller budget they could build an offensive ground-to-ground missile corps that would be both accurate and suitable for a wide range of targets....After all, missiles are unaffected by weather or damage to runways. The new alignment would be based on satellite support, a fleet of drones and cruise missiles. Its control-and-command centers would be synchronized with air force and intelligence systems... In any case, a lack of intelligence regarding targets would render smart bombs and missiles launched from planes ineffective. And the intelligence obtained could serve stationary, mobile or cruising missile and rocket launching just as successfully, without endangering planes, pilots and the huge sums necessary to purchase and run them...If we can learn something from our enemies, why not do so..? He pondered, letting his imagination take him far away from the conference room. And if we aren’t able to take off? Then only accurate ground-to-ground missiles would be able to do the job. In the long run, a corps like that must be established! The problem is that it will be built too slowly, too little and too late...
“Gershon, what do you think about all of this?” the prime minister asked sharply, interrupting his musings.
“I prefer to hear what the IDF’s proposed alternatives are before expressing an opinion.”
“Chief of Staff?” She turned to General Almozlino.
“The alternatives we examined are three: firstly, to sit and wait until the Syrians act; secondly, to wait until missiles fall on us and then respond. Possibly then we will be forced to react different and far more harshly. For that purpose we would propose attacking the general staff headquarters in Damascus and their international airport. Thirdly, our most viable suggestion is to attack immediately. I’m sure it’s clear to all of you that this is the most suitable, quick and efficient option in light of the present situation.”
“Understood. Gershon, your opinion?”
“Madam and sirs, I think it is too early to decide and definitely, to act. As they say, ‘my enemy’s enemy is my friend’ I don’t foresee any real possibility that those missiles will be launched at us. We must not do anything to weaken the regime in Damascus at the present time, despite the atrocities that it perpetrated against its own people. The war died out there a long time ago and Syria is in process of being rehabilitated, especially with the involvement of China, Russia and Iran. Clearly if we attack, and the whole world hears about it, there will be mass slaughter of innocent victims and the blame will be placed on us.” he raised his voice and looked the prime minister straight in the eye:
“The last thing we need today is a repetition of the old Sabra and Shatila massacre that we were blamed for, back in the 80s. I would like first of all to find out what the Syrian president’s personal attitude is before attacking. Of course we have to demand a high price for not attacking. At the same time we have to prepare ourselves for a barrage of missiles - even if it occurs without the approval of the Syrian Ra’is.”
“Thank you, Gershon. What do you have to say, head of the National Security Council?” she continued.
“Consider, prime minister, that there are two sides of the coin,” he began.
“Enough of your philosophizing, Shlomi! What is your recommendation?”
“We might possibly recommend holding off with the attack, but we don’t suggest canceling it altogether,” he responded in a low voice.
After only fifteen months in office, the prime minister, like everyone else in the room, was well aware of this dilemma. Like Gershon and the others at the meeting, she had formulated her position even before it had begun: A massive attack such as this and at the present time seemed to her to be an action that was liable to poke the bear...But, she tended to approve it. In addition, this was not a time to display weakness....The air force has already proven in the past that it could be relied upon, and the main thing was that bloody public opinion, which had already raised its head, would probably approve it...she mused.
“Right, Shlomi. Commander, would you please sum up?” she addressed the chief of staff.
“Yes, Madam Prime Minister.” With his green uniform that fitted his thin frame, a brown Golani Infantry Brigade beret tucked into the
epaulet on his shoulder, and a large knitted skull cap on his shaven pate, he appeared younger than the other participants. He got to his feet, regarded her and looked eager for battle:
“The IDF’s position is to hit, not to wait! The problems of the ‘Butcher from Damascus’ are not our problems.”
An oppressive silence fell on the room. Tamar Raguan slowly surveyed the others’ faces. Suddenly she had the urge to abandon this room filled with men, and enjoy a quiet cigarette alone in her warm, empty office.
Gershon intervened: “There are indications on the ground, which the military intelligence commander is also well aware of, that the Syrians are planning to reoccupy Al-Dumayr, whatever the cost in human life. So again, I recommend holding off with the attack!”
“Understood. Commander-in-Chief, I assume this is not news to you. What are your thoughts about this?”
“I will restate my position, Madam Prime Minister; ISIS has taken control of a threatening missile alignment. As an army, we have the responsibility for this and we’ll carry it out. Hard questions are emerging from the field. Both the media and the social networks are raising serious doubts and there are signs of rebellion and panic among the civilian population, although still at a low level.”
“Are you aware of this, Mossad Director?”
“In general, yes, but I wouldn’t define it like the chief of staff.”
“And having said that, then what?”
“Then what?” His old scar reddened: “We must take into consideration the whole spectrum of factors and possibilities.”
“High-flown global diplomatic considerations are not the army’s business,” the chief of staff broke in. “We demand to immediately remove the threat to our citizens, whose lives are our responsibility. I request your permission, Madam, to attack this very night. All forces are on immediate alert.”
A heavy silence reigned. The prime minister cleaned her glasses and General Almozlino continued watching Gershon, like someone preparing for a boxing match.
Gershon stood up and addressed the prime minister: “Madam Prime Minister, we do not have the privilege of ignoring regional and global perspectives. We intend to be here for many years to come and we have a serious problem with the Iranians, as well as with the Russians and the Chinese, who have invested a fortune in rehabilitating Syria. We have no interest in an operation that will bring us no advantage. Even if we destroy the missiles, the price in human casualties, mainly on the Syrian side, would be horrific. In any case, the Iranians would immediately replace whatever was lost and with even more advanced missiles. We don’t need a replay of ‘Sabra and Shatila’ at this time, as I’ve already mentioned. An attack would turn a reinforced Syria against us, an Iran that is spoiling for battle, a renovated, modern Hezbollah that is just waiting for a chance to attack. In addition to hostile world opinion, Russia and China would not take such interference lightly.”
“And launching the whole arsenal that has fallen into the hands of ISIS in our direction doesn’t worry you, Mossad Director?” General Almozlino shouted out. The prime minister nodded in agreement.
“I don’t see, gentlemen and madam, how missiles from Al-Dumayr could damage us significantly. At the moment ISIS has no interest in firing missiles at us. In light of the statistics, and in my estimation, they are planning an ostentatious mass suicide campaign against those who defeated them, with Assad at their head. They are also aware that in any event they will not get out of there alive, and if they do launch missiles at us, these will be limited in number due to the circumstances. Our ground-to-air Iron Dome and David’s Sling systems would be capable of dealing with them efficiently.”
“Okay, continue, but be brief, Gershon.” A slight hesitation could be detected in the prime minister’s voice.
“I demand not to decide to launch an attack at the present time. Let the Syrians solve the problem by themselves. We at the Mossad think that they will do it faster and better than some people think.” He paused for a moment and surveyed the seated participants, who were regarding him intently, but stopped and fixed his gaze on the chief of staff. General Almozlino glared back at him with suppressed anger.
“Yes, there will be casualties, civilians will be killed, and maybe a few Scud missiles will be launched at us. But, and this is the main thing, we will show the whole world and also the Syrians that we respect them and consider them neighbors and human beings, not only enemies. It might not be in the army’s purview to consider statesmanship in its deliberations, but it is definitely your responsibility and that of your government. Stop for a moment and consider!” He raised his voice, “Self-restraint can sometimes be a sign of strength. It could likely help us in future to achieve viable agreements until a solution is found, if such a thing exists.” Then he added with some anger, “But to enter into a conflict now that is liable to result in total war, an unnecessary, dangerous enterprise that would afford us no advantage whatsoever. That would be an unforgivable historical error!” he concluded and resumed his seat.
“Commander, are you convinced?” the prime minister turned to General Almozlino, while silence fell on the room.
“Negative, Madam Prime Minister. As I said before, the army demands the removal of this threat right now, tonight. We have wasted enough time already. We refuse to risk the lives of a single Israeli citizen, even at the cost of a few dead Syrians, whether they are army personnel or civilians.”
“I understand. You are not making my life any easier, gentlemen,” she paused for a long moment. “Gershon has presented weighty considerations, but in my opinion there is no point in waiting any longer. The situation is explosive and volatile, and up to now the Syrians have done nothing to solve the problem. Those maniacs at Al-Dumayr are extremely dangerous and recognize no higher power, apart from Allah. So with heavy heart I accept the army commander’s recommendation, and only time will tell. We are not Syria or Iran; public opinion matters here...” She paused for a moment. “General Almozlino, keep me in the picture. In any case, inform me one hour before moving forward in order to receive my final approval. What is the suggested ETA, air force commander?”
“Zero-two hundred, ma’am.”
“Hezi, are you ready?”
“Affirmative. We will carry out the mission in the manner I described before.”
“Okay, I’ll try to doze off a bit beforehand. Gershon, if you have something to say, now is the time. Friends, the meeting is concluded!”
The noise of scraping chairs and muted conversation could be heard in the room. The participants rose and gathered up their bags, laptops and other personal effects.
Gershon was horrified. He was forced to accept the political level’s decision, but his stubborn attempt to find a way out, change direction and find a solution - didn’t give him rest: Shit, this mad maneuver must be stopped before it embroils us in a useless war… The scar above his eye glowed a bright red, and his heart rate accelerated as a result of his anger and anxiety following the discussion. His lower back screamed with pain.
“Madam,” he said slowly but loudly, rising from his chair and pulling himself up to his full height: “I am forced to tender my resignation.” The clamor ceased, and everyone stared at him as though they had been possessed by a demon.
“Gershon, have you gone mad? You can’t walk off the field in the middle of the battle, while giving me no time to find a replacement. What’s the matter with you?” she shouted at him angrily.
“I apologize, but I can no longer serve the Israeli people, when my position is diametrically opposed to both the army’s and to yours.”
“Mr. Mossad Director, calm down. Al-Dumayr is not the end of the world. Hold off with your resignation and let us all, including yourself, continue working. Dismissed!” she spat out impatiently.
“Madam, perhaps you haven’t understood,” he insisted, “but this is the end of our cooperation! If you, as the head
of the political echelon, choose not to be a statesperson, be aware that history will not forgive you, nor will the ‘people’ that you are dragging after, into such a risky venture.” he paused. “Now, Madam, is your time to rise above yourself, display military restraint and statesman-like leadership. Now is your time, Honorable Prime Minister; so don’t mess it up!”
“Gershon, that’s enough hot air. What do you actually want?”
“I’ve already told you, but if you’re really asking, I request only two weeks.”
“For what?” It was impossible not to sense her impatience.
“To stop the attack. Let’s all of us hold off for two weeks… Afterwards, if the Syrians don’t manage to handle the crisis on their own, attack anyone you want. I’m positive that the air force and IDF will do it properly.”
A prolonged silence reigned in the room. Some of the participants sat down uncertainly. But Gershon, along with the chief of staff and the prime minister, remained standing.
She now sensed that her prestige as prime minister was being weighed in the balance. She still had not gained enough points in her favor to risk displaying a lack of self-confidence or casting doubt on her ability to make decisions. She poured herself a glass of water in the silent room, well aware of the fact that everyone was watching her intently.
She took a sip, leaving on the paper cup a trace of the lipstick that had become her trademark at interviews with the media or at official events, slowly removed her glasses and said, “Thank you, esteemed commanders, for presenting your positions so openly and succinctly. The people of Israel are in your debt.” She turned to face Gershon. “I reject your resignation, Mr. Mossad Director, and command you to find out what the Syrians think. Gentlemen!” she raised her voice, “meanwhile the attack is not authorized!” She took another gulp of water and added, “Air Force Commander, find out if the Russians see eye-to-eye with us about the situation and at the same time raise the preparation level of our missile-against-missile alignment. Shlomi, instruct your National Security Council to research similar situations and formulate recommendations for action. Yoav, compose an interim announcement to the media and I will approve it after the meeting. Chief of Staff, please prepare the Northern Command and Civil Defense Corps quietly and beneath the surface, without causing the public to panic. The IDF’s time will come, but for now we’ll hold our horses.”