by Uzi Eilam
“Tomorrow morning, we’re flying back, me to Baghdad, and you to Teheran,” Dr. Thompson reminded him. “My engineers in Iraq have reported that all components are ready for assembly in project ‘Two Out of Three.’ I’ll inform the president of your contribution after we successfully assemble and test the first two missiles.”
Chapter 13
Nimer sat alone in the room allocated to him at the Revolutionary Guard’s technological lab in Teheran. His thoughts kept circling back, again and again, to the conversation he had conducted that morning with the head of the strategic missile project. The series of failures in the third-stage testing of the Shahab missile indicated a problem for which Nimer could find no clear reason. He leafed through the thick file containing the results of the latest tests and thought about meeting the top leadership of the project, who could answer some of his questions regarding the data in the file.
I’ve been inducted against my will, with virtually no advance notice, into the heart of the problems of developing the Shahab missiles, without being allowed to “get oriented” here in Teheran, Nimer thought. For the meantime, he put off studying the detailed document describing the results of the failed testing of the Shahab missile. He also reflected on what Mughniyeh had told him about his parting conversation with the Iraqi president. Apparently, Saddam had been updated by Dr. Thompson about Nimer’s brainstorm on how to extend the range of the Scud-B missile and had expressed his satisfaction, which also took the form of a generous sum of money.
“I’m still debating about the reasons for the problems in developing Stage Three of the Shahab missile,” Nimer updated the head of the project on the internal secure line. “I’ve been thinking it would be a good idea to convene your top people for a comprehensive discussion in order to analyze the findings of the last few tests. I have a theory, but I wanted to examine it in an inclusive meeting with the heads of the various components of your project.”
***
The missile program manager’s bureau filled with the engineers and scientists leading the research and development programs for the Shahab family of missiles, the pride and joy of all members of the Revolutionary Guard. A buzz of conversation and whispers filled the air as everyone waited for the arrival of the manager and the advisor. All they knew of him, other than the impressive technological knowledge he exhibited, was that he was a foreigner from a country in the region. Everyone called him “the advisor;” only their manager knew more about the man.
“Good afternoon,” the manager roared, while all whispering immediately ceased. “We’re at a critical stage in developing the Shahab missile. Everyone here knows that we haven’t managed to make progress with developing the third stage of the missile. Our Supreme Leader is concerned by the delays in the timeline, and I’ve heard some harsh criticism from him. The eyes of the people are upon us, and heaven help us if we let them down.”
The room had grown absolutely silent and only a young scientist dared raise his hand, seeking permission to speak. Those around him stared at him with a combination of appreciation for his courage and criticism for sticking his neck out.
“What did you want to say, Dr. Hassan?” the manager softened his voice; the young scientist clearly held a spot of affection and esteem in the manager’s heart. Nimer, feeling a predilection to like the young man solely on the basis of his name, also listened closely.
“I went over the footage of the last test until a late hour last night, sir, and I think I’ve located the source of the malfunction. Watching the third phase of the launch in slow motion, just before the warhead exploded, I noticed a crack forming in the segment between the third stage and the warhead…”
A wave of talk filled the room once more, with sounds of assent or grumbles of criticism regarding the hasty conclusions. For a long time, the young scientist presented the section he had excerpted from the footage of the test. A fierce debate broke out between those in agreement with Dr. Hassan that this was indeed the reason for the repeated malfunctions in the tests and those who were not convinced by his claim.
Nimer, who watched the clip of the crack forming and listened to the arguments, mentally surveyed the history of malfunctions in the development of missiles in which he had previously been involved, analyzing results and offering solutions.
That reminds me of the problem that popped up while we were upgrading the Iraqi Al Hussein missiles, Nimer thought. In that case, Dr. Gerald Bull had an amazing insight. Bull determined that the metal strip that coupled the missile warhead to the third stage created electrical tension, and in the blazing environment around the missile as it was launched, it had caused cracks to form. It’s possible that this is the reason for the failure here as well.
All eyes turned to the advisor and the silence in the hall was absolute. All of them waited as the advisor opened the binder containing data from the last failed test and leafed through it until he found what he was looking for.
“Dr. Hassan correctly identified the source of the malfunction,” Nimer began, “and in fact, has pointed out a weakness stemming from a known phenomenon …”
“Weakness? What did we do wrong in the planning phase?” the manager cried out. “After all, we copied everything we’d learned from the North Korean and Chinese scientists, who opened our eyes regarding long-range missile technology.”
“Hassan identified the precise location of the crack which, in high-temperature conditions, as the missile enters the atmosphere, causes the warhead to fall apart,” Nimer continued confidently, “but the reason for the head breaking apart is a result of a familiar phenomenon in metallurgy.”
Nimer paused briefly, scanning his audience and noting he had their total attention.
“When connecting different metals, a passage of electrons between conductors is created with different resistance and different electric potentials. The size of various materials’ potential depends on the number of free electrons,” Nimer continued as if lecturing at the university. “As you know, metals possess the greatest electric potential. When you bring together metals with different potentials, you create a galvanic cell, where diffusion processes now take place. Such processes damage the metals that are in contact, and this dynamic is accelerated at high temperatures. When coupling copper and aluminum, for example, the potential difference between them is nearly two volt. Contact points between the two metals regularly heat up and rise above the permitted temperature. The metals, in our case platinum and aluminum, lose their mechanical strength even when they’re not in high temperatures.”
A murmur of whispers and clucking tongues passed through the room when Nimer stopped talking and turned to look at the manager.
“And you’re sure, Mr. Advisor, that this is indeed the reason?”
“Without a doubt, sir. We owe our insight on this phenomenon to legendary rocket engineer Dr. Gerald Bull. He noticed it when he was assisting Iraq, your former nemesis, in developing the Al Hussein missiles.”
“If that’s the case,” the project’s metal specialist ventured to ask, “do we simply have to choose metals with similar potentials?”
“Exactly,” Nimer hurried to confirm. “You could replace the aluminum with copper, and the problem would be solved. I recommend trying it and seeing if the malfunction goes away. I’m almost certain that this is what you will find.”
“Thank you, Mr. Advisor,” the manager said. “I ask that all of you carry out the changes immediately, and work diligently on eliminating the delay in our timeline caused by the malfunction. The meeting is over, gentlemen. Get back to work immediately!”
Chapter 14
“Good morning to you, my young friends,” Gideon greeted them, as he entered the room placed at their disposal by Nahari’s bureau. Dan and the three young graduates of IDF’s Talpiot program were mesmerized by their computer screens, occasionally growling out monosyllabic comments. Empty coffee cups and sandwich crumbs attested
to the long night they had experienced. “Anything new?”
“The most important thing so far, Gideon, is that we’ve established a partial capability to track the movements of the commander of Hezbollah’s military arm, Imad Mughniyeh. The man is elusive and sophisticated and is apparently making use of experienced hackers. He can randomly appear in various areas of computerized communication databases. We think we’ve cracked the codes they’ve developed for Mughniyeh, and in some cases, we’ve witnessed him using them very skillfully. And if it’s not the man himself, there has to be someone who’s always by his side to activate these evasion tactics.”
“And you have uncovered all that using the technique you call Big Data? How does it work, if you can describe it to me in a few sentences?”
“I’ll explain,” Itzik, the young man from MID, volunteered. “First and foremost, it’s important to point out the three “V”s that express the principles of Big Data: Volume, Velocity and Variety. The first “V” conveys Big Data’s scale and capability to gather an immense amount of information, to save the information, and to utilize it for further handling of parts of it. The second “V,” Velocity, emphasizes the necessity of processing a ‘flood’ of data in order to get results in near-real time. The third “V” expresses the ability to process data that arrives in a variety of formats: structural, digital, textual, email, video and data transfer — for example, information about monetary transfers. But the amount of information is constantly growing, and solutions that work today might not be right for tomorrow…”
“So what do you do?” Gideon queried, somewhat confused.
“You develop tools. In fact, we’re talking about groups of algorithms that allow us to deal with constantly evolving challenges. The future, Dr. Ben Ari, presents us with situations requiring a creative, innovative approach.”
“The most important capability in this field, Gideon,” Dan intervened, “is not storing a massive amount of data, but being able to use it. We have decided to focus on Imad Mughniyeh, who’s actually the center; the mastermind behind terror attacks all over the world. He’s located, seemingly simultaneously, in several places on Earth that are thousands of miles apart…”
“And you have located him using the Big Data filters you’ve designed?”
“Exactly!” the team member from the Mossad replied, noting to himself that Gideon understood a lot more than he let on. “Out of the sea of data with which the hackers surrounding Mughniyeh flood the network, we’ve managed to isolate the information concerning his whereabouts. For the last three weeks, the man has been in Teheran, and it’s obvious to us that he’s the Revolutionary Guard’s honored guest. It’s unclear if he’s representing Hassan Nasrallah, secretary general of Hezbollah, or rather primarily himself, in his negotiations with governments and organizations throughout the world. He’s always walking around with people who sound like his bodyguards, but he’s also surrounded by Hezbollah members who assist him in carrying out terrorist attacks.”
“And that’s all you’ve produced with Big Data analytics?”
“It is, Gideon, but we’ve also exposed intentions to conduct activity in South America. We’ve been focusing on what’s going on there in the area of three borders known as the Triple Frontier, or International Border Tripoint (IBT), the area between Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay, where we have noticed increasing activity by Islamic terrorist organizations. The traffic on these organizations’ media alone already requires employing Big Data analytics. There’s also an unholy alliance between terrorist organizations and crime syndicates trafficking in drugs and laundering money in various ways. These connections allow the Islamic terrorist organizations to obtain a major part of the funding they need.”
“Hold on a minute! You’re rushing too fast for my old ears. What caused you to make the leap from tracking Imad Mughniyeh in Teheran to the Triple Frontier free-trade area where the three borders meet?” Gideon grumbled, sensing that the young people already knew a lot more than what they had brought up with him, and were hurtling too fast, skipping over things that seemed known and obvious to them.
“Within the deluge of information we processed with Big Data methods, we found a few hints regarding Mughniyeh’s intentions to come to South America,” Dan stepped up to explain. “We know with certainty that Iran intends to make use of Argentina’s nuclear technology in order to reactivate its small research reactor in Teheran. We still don’t know when Mughniyeh intends to visit Argentina and Brazil. It is there that we are now focusing our Big Data fishing efforts. Apparently, there are people in key positions within the regime in Argentina who enjoy generous financial endowments that help Iran and its delegate, Imad Mughniyeh, to obtain everything they’re seeking. We’re aware of the risk of preparations for terror attacks in South America in general, and in Brazil in particular. The Americans are also tracking organizations who intend to target American institutions in the Brazilian city of São Paulo. We suspect these are comprised of Nazis who are thriving in South America thanks to the fortune robbed from the victims of World War Two, which is now at their disposal.”
“Thank you. It’s now obvious that an additional, important threatening component— especially for us as Israelis—has been added to the equation, and must now be assessed. Focus on the Nazis’ part in aiding terrorist activities in Argentina, and perhaps in Brazil as well.”
Gideon left the meeting with a sense that the world belonged to the young. He was grateful for his connection with Dan, and for the young man’s ability to keep him in the picture. The new world of using cyber means on the World Wide Web, artificial intelligence and Big Data seemed to him like a black hole sucking everything inside it. He still did not feel as if he could provide good answers to Yitzhak Nahari’s burning questions.
Chapter 15
Nimer was waiting in his room for the head of the Shahab missile project, who had asked for an urgent meeting to discuss an important topic. I feel like a nursery schoolteacher in the technological daycare center, Nimer thought while trying to guess what was on the manager’s mind this time. However, I am committed to inflicting a painful blow on the enemy, one that will be much more brutal than another explosive charge weighing a few pounds. In this way, I can seek revenge on a much larger scale than just another terrorist attack.
“Excuse me, Dr. Nimesdorf, for barging in on your busy schedule,” the head of the Shahad missile project apologized. “You’ve helped us thus far, and we are grateful. Today, we received a troubling report from the Revolutionary Guard Technological Intelligence Unit. It concerns an anti-missile defense system that Israel and the United States are currently close to completing. The system is called ‘Arrow’ and is designed to intercept long-range ballistic missiles…”
“Is there any news in that field? After all, we’ve been tracking anti-missile systems for a long time,” Nimer noted.
“Yes, of course, it’s an integral part of the requirements for developing the missile,” the head of the project confirmed. “But the troubling part of the report, which I’ve brought here with me, concerns their system’s ability to shoot down our missiles a very short time after they are launched, as well as the ability to simultaneously intercept a large number of our missiles. The report contains information about the Arrow missile’s capability for being guided mid-course, and in a preliminary discussion with my engineers, we haven’t come up with any idea on how to deal with this array of threats.”
The man sounds truly troubled, Nimer thought, paging through the thick file that the head of the project had brought with him. Some of his concern must be caused by the threat to his own fate if he fails to carry out his duties. It’s important to examine the problem thoroughly, rather than in a brief meeting.
“I suggest you leave the report with me, and I’ll see what I can do. Don’t worry, I’ll prioritize this subject, and keep you posted.”
“Thank you! Thank you! We have utter fa
ith in your wisdom. You’re the best.”
Nimer went over the report for quite a while, realizing the severity of the problem raised by the head of the project. We have to find a solution to address the Arrow missile’s new capabilities, he thought. He had no problem outlining the updates that must be included in the new missile, and also determining that the solution was systemic in nature. I have to make use of what I learned from Dr. Thompson, he concluded privately.
“Hello, Nimer, and good afternoon,” Mughniyeh addressed him as he sat down in a chair opposite his industrious and indefatigable partner. “What’s going on? Any problems?”
“I’m fine, Imad, but a problem has come up in the Shahab development project. Take a look at the report prepared by the Revolutionary Guard’s intelligence division, containing troubling information about the Arrow anti-ballistic missile currently being developed by the Israelis, with the Americans’ help.”
“I’m seeing information about the defense system’s new capabilities to protect against enemy missiles. What does this mean? Is it a tough nut to crack?”
“I’m not sure to what extent it jeopardizes the development plan. We have to hope it doesn’t bring us back to square one in regard to conceptualizing and designing the Shahab missile.”