This does not sound promising for billions of people across Asia in particular, whose expectations have been raised rather than lowered thanks to the economic transformations of the recent past. Finding ways to work together is neither easy nor a given. But the nations in Asia have much in common. As Xi said in Astana in 2013, however, while the peoples of the Silk Roads are of “different races, beliefs and cultural backgrounds,” they are “fully capable of sharing peace and development,” as history shows. This is not a new world being born; it is the old world being reborn.
We are already living in the Asian century. The shift of global GDP from the developed economies of the West to those of the East has been breathtaking in both scale and speed. According to some estimates, thanks to sharp rises in oil prices, the countries of the Middle East (and North Africa) will earn more than $210bn more in 2018–19 than they did in the previous twelve months—a windfall of enviable proportions.213 That change has led to a series of obvious growing pains in Asia, ranging from environmental damage to an almost insatiable appetite for infrastructure investment. It has also led to challenges in how states engage, cooperate and in some cases compete with each other.
What is striking, however, as new connections forge and old links are renewed, is that the West is in danger of becoming less and less relevant. When the West does engage and play a role, it is invariably to intervene or interfere in ways that create more problems than they solve—or to place obstacles and restrictions in place that limit the growth and prospects of others. The age of the West shaping the world in its image is long gone—although that seems to have been lost on those who think that managing the fates of others is appropriate and even possible.
“China, Russia [and] Iran…are forces of instability,” said John Sullivan, US deputy secretary of state, when launching a human rights report in April 2018. These states are “morally reprehensible and undermine our interests.” Such comments sit uncomfortably alongside reports that even before the election of Donald Trump as president, he was being sounded out by influential figures in the Middle East—including the crown prince of Abu Dhabi and the Israeli ambassador to the US—to strike a deal with Russia and Vladimir Putin. Essentially, this amounted to a trade: in return for forcing Iran to withdraw from Syria, Moscow would be rewarded with the ending of sanctions and recognition of Crimea. “We’re going to have to see,” said Trump when asked if he would change the US position on Russia’s intervention in Ukraine.214
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Forces of instability, it seems, are in the eye of the beholder. When branding other states as destabilising, it is easy to take a rose-tinted view of—or even forget—the impact that US intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan has had in the last fifteen years—to say nothing of decades going back to the middle of the twentieth century. The belief that it is other states that cause problems poses questions about which lessons from history, if any, are learned in Washington. Trading Ukraine for Syria is one thing; being blind to the irony of accusing others of being disruptive is another.
From the perspective of the US, then, something seems to have gone badly wrong with the spine of the Silk Roads, where China, Russia and Iran—three of the largest and most important states in the world—are deemed to pose a direct threat to the US and a threat to global stability.215 Two others, Turkey and Pakistan, are seen to be cancerous problems that can only be dealt with aggressively, while the experiences with Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan provide salutary lessons on how interventions do not often go to plan.
One of the challenges as a historian or as an observer of contemporary affairs is to see the bigger picture. Identifying the ways in which the world is connected and assessing how the dots join up not only allows for a better understanding of what is going on around us, but provides a platform for a more accurate vantage point too. Assessing how the different pieces of the global geopolitical puzzle are connected to each other also helps to better explain the fragilities and dangers—as well as the opportunities for cooperation and collaboration—that can help frame better decision-making too.
The King of Zhao in north-eastern China, who ruled nearly 2,500 years ago, declared that, “A talent for following the ways of yesterday is not sufficient to improve the world of today.” Those words of wisdom are as apt today as they were then. Understanding what is driving change is the first step to being able to prepare and adapt to it. Trying to slow down or stop that change is an illusion. What is not, though, is the fact that the Silk Roads are rising. They will continue to do so. How they develop, evolve and change will shape the world of the future, for good and for bad. Because the Silk Roads have always done just that.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Most books include a section of acknowledgements so the author can thank those who have helped them bring their book to life. Over the past few years I have made lots of new friends, been introduced to many interesting and helpful contacts and been able to rely on a generous network of commentators who work on some or all of the regions, peoples and topics that I am interested in. There are a small handful of friends and colleagues who have read some or all of what I have written here, several of whom prefer to be anonymous. I am grateful to those who have helped this project in one way or another—I hope you know who you are.
As always, I owe a debt of thanks to Catherine Clarke and her team at Felicity Bryan, and to my editor Michael Fishwick and all at Bloomsbury for giving me the support I wanted and needed to get this book written. I am thankful to Sarah Ruddick for her patience and guidance, and to Richard Collins for his eye for detail. Emma Ewbank has produced another cover that is simply magnificent.
My family have had to put up with me writing away at all hours when I’ve been at home, but also in between dashes to the airport and trips abroad in what has been a very busy last couple of years. I could not have done this without you, Jess, Katarina, Flora, Francis and Luke: thank you.
I also could not have done this without my parents, who taught me to walk, to read, to write and to think. They have been a source of love, laughter and encouragement for nearly five decades. They have always been there for me when I have needed them, and also when I have not.
My father fell seriously ill when I was writing this book. He was my role model; a man of profound courage, modesty and intelligence. Since I was a small boy, he encouraged me to read, to think and to focus on my studies. I spoke with him almost every single day for decades, often about history and also about the past, present and future of the Silk Roads.
He was not just a father to me, but also my hero and my friend. He was endlessly patient and selfless; he did anything and everything for me (and indeed for many others), and never asked for anything in return. He was a model of generosity, kindness and love.
His loss, just before this book was published, has been heartbreaking for me and my family. The very last time I saw him, I gave him the first copy of this book. He beamed at me and told me he could not wait to read it. I do not mind that he did not have the chance to do so; it is so painful though not to be able to see him and talk with him about it. This book is dedicated to my beloved father—whom I miss very much indeed.
I am extremely grateful to Sir Tim Rice and the Walt Disney Company for giving me permission to quote from the lyrics of “A Whole New World” from Aladdin—a song about the past of the Silk Roads that foretells their future.
The Provost and Fellows of Worcester College and my many colleagues at Oxford have been extremely supportive and provide one of the most exhilarating environments for a scholar anywhere in the world. I am grateful for their encouragement and the home they provide.
I reserve a special place, though, for one friend in particular. Mark Whittow was one of the finest historians of his generation. He was an extraordinarily gifted scholar and a magnificent friend not only to me but to everyone who worked with, was taught by or met him in Oxford. Mark was a source of n
ever-ending good humour and kindness, but, more importantly, he was an inspiration to me—first as my doctoral examiner many years ago, then as a senior colleague I looked up to and then as a collaborator. Mark’s loss in an accident just before Christmas 2017 was devastating for Oxford, where to the delight of us all he had just been elected provost of Oriel College. He was so proud that I’d written The Silk Roads and that it had been so visible, and continued to encourage me not to fear stepping outside the academic world to talk to more general audiences from time to time. Mark would have said that writing a follow-up called The New Silk Roads was “a giggle and a hoot.” I’ve had to remind myself of that a few times while writing this volume. I owe Mark a debt of gratitude that I can now never repay. But thank you, Mark, for all you did for me over the course of nearly thirty years.
Last but not least, I must thank those who read The Silk Roads when it came out. I have been amazed and delighted by the response to a history book that is not the shortest book that has ever been written, and thrilled that so many people wanted to look at the past from a different perspective. I hope this slim volume comes as a reward for those who carried the heavier original around with them.
I am especially grateful to those who recommended The Silk Roads to their friends, families and even to complete strangers. That, of course, is the finest testimony a book can have. I hope all who read this book enjoy it as much and again encourage others to read it. History matters for a reason. It helps explain why we are who we are and can teach useful lessons to help avoid making the same mistakes as in the past.
In that sense, I am delighted that this new edition appears at the same time as a new version of The Silk Roads, which is aimed at a younger audience. Those of school age grow up quickly (more quickly than ever, we are told in the press), but this is the world they will inherit and need to be able to make sense of. Reading is one way to help the next generation learn and think, but discussing the past is invaluable, too. I hope that both books help bring people together. Understanding history is not just interesting; it is also important.
Peter Frankopan
Oxford, September 2018
NOTES
INTRODUCTION
1. Ferdinand von Richthofen, “Über die zentralasiatischen Seidenstrassen bis zum 2. Jahrhundert. n. Chr.,” Verhandlungen der Gesellschaft für Erdkunde zu Berlin 4 (1877), pp. 96–122.
2. Yuqi Li, Michael J. Storozum, Xin Wang and Wu Guo, “Early irrigation and agropastoralism at Mohuchahangoukou (MGK), Xinjiang, China,” in Archaeological Research in Asia 12 (2017), 23–32.
3. “Spy satellites are revealing Afghanistan’s lost empires,” Science 358.6369 (2017).
4. See, for example, Kathryn Franklin and Emily Hammer, “Untangling Palimpsest Landscapes in Conflict Zones: a ‘Remote Survey,’ in Spin Boldak, Southeast Afghanistan,” Journal of Field Archaeology 43.3 (2018), pp. 58–73.
5. Taylor R. Hermes et al., “Urban and nomadic isotopic niches reveal dietary connectivities along Central Asia’s Silk Roads,” Scientific Reports 8.5177 (2018).
6. Paola Pollegiono et al., “Ancient Humans Influenced the Current Spatial Genetic Structure of Common Walnut Populations in Asia,” Plos One 10.1371 (2015), pp. 1–16.
7. Ranajit Das, Paul Wexler, Mehdi Piroonznia and Eran Elhaik, “Localizing Ashkenazic Jews to Primeval Villages in the Ancient Iranian Lands of Ashkenaz,” Genome Biology and Evolution 8.4 (2016), pp. 1132–49.
8. Alexander F. More et al., “Next-generation ice core technology reveals true minimum natural levels of lead (Pb) in the atmosphere: Insights from the Black Death,” GeoHealth 1 (2017), pp. 211–19.
9. US State Department, Memorandum of Conversation, Byroade to Matthews, “Proposal to Organize a Coup d’état in Iran,” 26 November 1952, General Records of the Department of State 1950–54, Central Decimal File 788.00/11-2652.
10. Strategic Air Command, “Atomic Weapons Requirements Study for 1959,” in W. Burr (ed.), National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 538.
11. BBC News, “Turkey sentences 25 journalists to jail for coup links,” 9 March 2018.
12. Nergis Demirkaya, “Hükümetin 2023 planı: 5 yılda 228 yeni cezaevi,” Gazete Duvar, 10 December 2017.
13. https://news.nike.com/news/kobe-x-silk-shoe-inspired-by-kobe-bryant-s-personal-connections-to-asia-and-europe.
14. https://www.hermes.com/uk/en/product/poivre-samarcande-eau-de-toilette-V38168/.
15. Kevin G. Hall and Ben Wieder, “Trump dreamed of his name on towers across former Soviet Union,” McClatchy DC Bureau, 28 June 2017; Adam Davidson, “Trump’s business of corruption,” New Yorker, 21 August 2017.
16. Turkmenistan.gov.tm, “2018 год: Туркменистан—сердце Великого Шёлкового пути,” 2 January 2018.
17. BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2017, pp. 12, 26.
18. US Department of Agriculture, Grain: World Markets and Trade, July 2018.
19. US Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2017, p. 151; p. 135.
20. Alfred W. McCoy, In the Shadows of the American Century: The Rise and Decline of US Global Power (London, 2017), p. 111.
21. UN Office on Drugs and Crime, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2017. Challenges to sustainable development, peace and security (2018), p. 4; for the value of the markets, see UNODC, Drug Trafficking at https://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/drug-trafficking/index.html.
22. Andrew Gilmour, “Imprisoned, threatened, silenced: human rights workers across Asia are in danger,” Guardian, 18 May 2018. See also Freedom House, Freedom of the Press 2017 (April 2017)
23. Asian Development Bank, Asia 2050. Realizing the Asian Century (2011), p. 3.
24. PricewaterhouseCoopers, The World in 2050. Will the shift in global economic power continue? (2015), p. 11.
25. George Magnus, Red Flags: Why Xi’s China is in Jeopardy (London, 2018), p. 117.
26. International Monetary Fund, Press release, “People’s Republic of China: 2017 Article IV Consultation,” 8 August 2017.
27. “A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty. That’s 50 Million Apartments,” Bloomberg, 8 November 2018.
28. See Lisa Yiu and Lao Yun, “China’s Rural Education: Chinese Migrant Children and Left-Behind Children,” Chinese Education and Society 50 (2017), 307–14; Lake Lui, “Gender, Rural-Urban Inequality and Intermarriage in China,” Social Forces 95.2 (2016), pp. 639–62.
THE ROADS TO THE EAST
1. “The President’s News Conference with President Boris Yeltsin of Russia in Vancouver,” 4 April 1993, in Public Papers of the President of the United States, William J. Clinton, January 20 to July 31, 1993, p. 393.
2. https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/1993/press.html.
3. Agence France-Presse, “Forgiveness gesture in accepting Nobel prize,” 9 December 2013.
4. Joint Statement of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and the United States of America, New York, June 11, 1993, at http://nautilus.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/CanKor_VTK_1993_06_11_joint_statement_dprk_usa.pdf.
5. United Nations Peacemaker, “Agreement on the Maintenance of Peace along the Line of Actual Control in the India-China Border Areas,” 7 September 1993.
6. Geremie R. Barmé, “Introduction: Red Eclipse,” in Red Rising, Red Eclipse. China Story Yearbook 2012 https://www.thechinastory.org/yearbooks/yearbook-2012/; J. Gewirtz, Unlikely Partners; Chinese Reformers, Western Economists, and the Making of Global China (Cambridge, Mass., 2017), pp. 245ff.
7. Fareed Zakaria, “Give South Korea a gold medal,” Washington Post, 8 February 2018.
8. Infosys, Navigate Your Next. Annual Report 2017–18, 13 April 2018.
9. S. V. Krishnamachari, “How Rs 950 invested in Infosys in 1993 IPO is no
w worth over Rs 50 lakh,” International Business Times, 9 June 2017.
10. For more information about Qatar Airways, see https://www.qatarairways.com/en/about-qatar-airways.html
11. Gulf Times, “Qatar Airways signs MoU to buy 25% stake in Moscow’s Vnukovo Airport,” 4 April 2018.
12. Paul Routledge and Simon Hoggart, “Major hits out at Cabinet,” Guardian, 25 July 1993.
13. FIFA, “History of Football—The Origins” http://www.fifa.com/about-fifa/who-we-are/the-game/index.html.
14. Independent, “Arsenal fans’ group set to urge Alisher Usmanov not to sell his shares to Stan Kroenke,” 4 October 2017.
15. Cinzia Sicca and Alison Yarrington, The Lustrous Trade. Material Culture and the History of Sculpture in England and Italy, c.1700–1860 (London, 2001).
16. Charles Thompson, The Travels of the Late Charles Thompson, 3 vols. (Reading, 1744), 1, p. 67.
17. World Bank, “From local to global: China’s role in global poverty reduction and the future of development,” 7 December 2017.
18. Niall Ferguson and Xiang Xu, “Make Chimerica Great Again,” Hoover Institution Economic Working Paper 18105, 3 May 2018, p. 11.
19. Julien Girault, “Hu Keqin; ‘Nous prenons un soin extrême de nos terres,’ en France,” Le Point, 23 February 2018.
20. Sylvia Wu, “China Wine Imports: Australia and Georgia taking a leap,” Decanter, 5 February 2018.
21. Adam Sage, “Bordeaux whines as rich Chinese give lucky names to old châteaux,” The Times, 23 November 2017; Natalie Wang, “Bordeaux wary of rich Chinese changing estates’ names,” The Drinks Business, 30 November 2017.
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