“Three days ago, the aliens returned. That would be June 19th—Day 54. Not coincidentally, that is the day we moved you from DC to the hospital in Cambridge. We needed your help, and we knew we had to bring you out of the coma earlier than the doctors had advised. My apologies, Professor, but we felt we had no choice.
“We had three reasons for bringing you back. First, you might remember something important—which is why we went through the elaborate exercise of trying to test and jog your memory last night. Second, I wanted you back on the team regardless of what you might remember, and the sooner the better. And third, we thought you might be able to make sense of the messages you had scribbled on your arm.
“Day 54 started with the detection of five alien spacecraft, spotted 250 million miles away from Earth. They are smaller than the reserves that visited us earlier, and possibly smaller than ET-1 as well. We worry that the smaller size makes them more suitable for combat operations.
“Early morning on Day 55, the day before yesterday, we received the first new message from the aliens.
Leaders of Earth. We will visit your planet soon. Our laws permit us to explore all regions of the universe, and to take whatever action is deemed necessary in pursuit of our legitimate interests. This includes the right to inflict harm, if necessary, on the structures, habitat, and species of the planets we visit. We ask that you not interfere as we exercise these rights, established as they are on just laws that we conscientiously proclaim and faithfully follow. Our advice is for human beings to accept the consequences of our arrival and our actions, and to do so without resistance or belligerence of any kind.
“Needless to say, this was extremely alarming. We put some contingency plans into action, but there was not much we could do other than wait and see what happened next. We didn’t have to wait long. Early yesterday morning, ET-1 returned to Station Zero. We immediately started the process of bringing you out of your coma and sent Agents Silla and Lane to Cambridge.”
“Yesterday afternoon, we sent a message asking the aliens what they considered to be their “legitimate interests,” and what it was they were planning. We made it clear that we would not sit idly by and allow them to act with impunity, but we did not make any specific threats. We suggested that the two sides discuss matters to avoid unnecessary harm and unintended consequences. We also suggested that you, Professor Kilmer, might be willing to speak to Archidamus—remotely, of course—if a continuation of that dialogue would help resolve any remaining problems. My apologies for volunteering you, but we were running out of options.
“We received a response yesterday evening.
I am Archidamus. Now is not the time for discussion. When a conversation is deemed useful or necessary, humans will be informed, but we will speak only to the leaders of Earth’s nations. Ambassador Kilmer and I have nothing more to discuss—now or in the future. He is no longer relevant to what we do, or to the future of Earth, or to the fate of its human civilization.
“There have been no more messages since yesterday evening. Our immediate concern, however, is not the lack of productive conversation with ET-1. It’s the behavior of their spacecraft. As of this morning, the fleet has moved to within one million miles of Earth. And there are now more than two hundred of them. We don’t know what they plan to do—or when—but their rhetoric, the size of their fleet, and their refusal to engage diplomatically are all very concerning. Put simply, the situation is about as bad as it’s been since you managed to bring us back from the brink last time.”
~ 109 ~
“That’s where things stand, Professor. Any questions or observations?”
“Just a few—but may I take another look at the messages you read out to us?”
Whitman handed Kilmer the document, and he skimmed through it.
“Their statements appear to have become more aggressive over the last few weeks,” Kilmer reflected. “But none of them are quite as threatening as what we received before I went to ET-1. Is there agreement on that?”
“There is, Professor. But we could still be facing an existential threat.”
“I agree. Which gets me to my second point—regarding the two hundred spacecraft. We were terrified when there were only three of them. Two hundred spacecraft should worry us much more. On the other hand, it makes me wonder: why do they need a larger force than last time if their threat is now of a less devastating nature?”
“And how would you reconcile that?”
“I can see two possibilities, Madam President—and there might well be more. First, if they need this large of a fleet to carry out a more limited mission, maybe we were more worried than we had reason to be when they brought only three spacecraft. Their spacecraft might be less powerful than we thought. On the other hand, and as you would well know, there isn’t always a positive correlation between the size of the force and the damage it can do. If we wanted to annihilate an entire nation, we might just need a few bombers capable of dropping nuclear weapons. But if we wanted to do less damage—and we wanted the country to survive our assault or invasion—we would need ground troops, along with hundreds of aircraft that were armed with conventional weapons. Choosing to do less damage can sometimes require more equipment and personnel. If either of these inferences are correct, then there is a silver lining here. I’m not suggesting that the sudden arrival of two hundred spacecraft is good news, especially given their rhetoric, but it might mean they are not quite as powerful as we had assumed, or that they have a narrower agenda than to simply annihilate us from outer space.”
Whitman nodded. “Secretary Strauss suggested earlier today that the smaller size of these spacecraft is more consistent with an attack that requires them to get closer to Earth and conduct more targeted operations. We can’t be sure, of course, but your conjecture seems consistent with his. This is something we will need to evaluate further. What else do you see, Professor?”
“Just one more thing, if I may. I’m struck by the legalistic tone of the message in which they warn us not to interfere with their plans. It certainly doesn’t sound like Archidamus speaking. Could it be some sort of bureaucratic protocol they’re following? Maybe it’s something they have to announce before they attack?”
“Maybe,” Whitman replied. “But when they’ve warned us in the past, they haven’t used language like this.”
Kilmer nodded. “And it’s not only the tone that’s striking. The substance of the message is also very different from what they’ve conveyed previously. They’re asking us not to interfere. They’re warning us not to resist or strike back. Why is that suddenly necessary for them to say?”
“It sounds a bit like they’re worried we can fight back,” Nielsen suggested. “Which would be consistent with the notion that they’re more vulnerable than we’ve been led to believe.”
“That’s true,” Kilmer agreed. “But it doesn’t quite add up. Why would they admit that? They would have to know—or at least consider—that a message like this will signal vulnerability? They’ve spent weeks portraying themselves as invincible, so why not just continue to scare the hell out of us? And if they are vulnerable, there’s even more reason to hide that fact from us.”
“Maybe they believe we can inflict minor harm, and they don’t want to suffer it needlessly,” Nielsen proposed. “In which case it’s a legitimate warning. They just want to minimize unnecessary losses on both sides. That might align with the idea that they have a narrower agenda than we initially feared.”
“Maybe,” Kilmer acknowledged mildly. “Maybe that’s what it is.”
~ 110 ~
Whitman called for a break until 5:30 p.m., at which time Secretary Strauss, General Allen, and Director Druckman would join the meeting. Kilmer would then update the team on his interpretation of the four messages he had scribbled on his arm.
Kilmer was given the keys to his old office, and Silla walked him over. He saw her looking at him expectantly as they entered the room.
“Sorry,” he said. “
Nothing in here looks familiar either.”
She smiled gently. “Just thought I’d check. So, how are you feeling now?”
He thought about it for a moment. “I’m not really sure. But the gravity of the situation certainly takes my mind off the unreality of everything else. So, I’m just trying to stay focused on the problems that need solving.”
“And how’s that going? Have you been able to make much progress on the four clues?”
“Some—at least when it comes to the first three messages. But I’m completely lost on the fourth. Then again, my handwriting is messy in that one, so maybe we’re just reading it wrong.”
Silla shrugged. “Ambiguity seems to be a recurring theme when it comes to dealing with the aliens. Nothing is ever quite clear. Why they wanted you to come to ET-1. How you got them to back down. Why they’ve changed their tone. And of course—the ultimate question.”
Kilmer raised an eyebrow. “The ultimate question?”
“Churchill’s Key,” she explained. “Finding out what really drives them. You used to call it the ultimate question. The why. We have to understand the why. You used to say that all the time.”
“Sounds like it would have gotten pretty annoying after a while.”
“No comment,” Silla responded with a smile.
Kilmer narrowed his eyes.
“Come on, Kilmer. I’m just kidding.”
The why. We have to understand the why.
“No… it’s not that. I just…”
I would make it unambiguous—but only after you read the clues properly.
“It’s the first clue, Silla. I think you just helped me figure out what it means.”
~ 111 ~
Strauss was the first to walk over to Kilmer when he entered the Oval Office. “I’ll be the first to admit it, Professor. I didn’t think you had it in you. What you did took serious guts.” He paused. “It’s good to have you back.”
Kilmer didn’t know what to say. He was saved from having to respond by General Allen and Director Druckman, both of whom shook his hand and added their own sentiments. As everyone moved to the sitting area, Kilmer was glad the reunion had been quick. Everyone was extremely nice, but he felt awkward throughout, as though he was being hailed a hero for things he had never done. It was like being called on stage to accept an award on behalf of someone who couldn’t be there in person.
Once they were seated, everyone was handed a copy of the photographs with the four clues.
GermanYin14
HDT/AL46
RWE2NRM4MJW
GALWAY4/3Kingdoms/21
Whitman turned the meeting over to Kilmer, who warned everyone not to get their hopes up too high. He would interpret the clues as best he could, but he wasn’t sure what they added up to. More work was needed.
“In that case,” Art interjected, “it would be helpful to my team if you also tell us about the interpretations that you considered, but ultimately rejected. That way we know which leads are more and less worth pursuing.”
Kilmer nodded. “I’ll try to do that as efficiently as I can. So, let’s start with the first clue: GermanYin14. That’s the one written above the other two on my left arm. ‘Germany in 14’ is what it looked like to me. The most obvious explanation was that I was referring to Germany in 1914—at the start of World War I. Maybe I was saying that the aliens are like Germany in 1914—instigators in a war that others were trying to avoid. But we already knew that the aliens were the aggressors here, so why would I have bothered to leave a clue about that? And why leave that clue in particular?
“Then I thought about what had actually triggered World War I—and the role Germany had played. There’s a lot there, but the most promising lead was Germany’s attack on Belgium—a neutral country. The Germans invaded Belgium because it allowed them to invade France more effectively, which was their real objective. But this led the British to enter the war, because the Brits were committed to protecting Belgian neutrality, and they were worried that control of Belgium would make it easier for Germany to launch an attack on England itself. I started to wonder whether we are Belgium in this story. Are we just pawns in a game between the aliens and someone else? If so, I’m not sure what we can do about that right now. But it might be worth keeping in mind.
“Then there was the capital Y in the message. Maybe I just wrote it in haste. But it might be meaningful. Was the message ‘Germany in 14’, or was it ‘German Yin 14’? And what could that mean? The yin character in Chinese philosophy denotes the negative, or the passive element in duality. Maybe this was not about German aggression, but about German passivity. Maybe it was about what they failed to do—which was to rein in Austrian belligerence against the Serbs. Their unconditional support for Austria was what had led things to spiral out of control in the first place, forcing Russia, Germany, France, and Britain to all enter the fray. So maybe we should be thinking about what the aliens are not doing, but which could lead to further escalation.
“That was all I’d managed to come up with—until just before this meeting, when Agent Silla mentioned how focused I used to be on Churchill’s Key. And how often I reminded everyone that we have to understand the why. That’s when it struck me. The aliens weren’t meant to be the Germans in this clue. They are the British. The letter Y is not a letter at all. It stands for a word: why. The clue is meant to be interpreted as ‘German Why in 14.’
“All this time, I had been thinking about what the Germans had done in 1914 from the perspective of the Allies—the story as told by the French, British, Russians, and Americans, all of whom blamed Germany for the war. But the clue that I wrote down was reminding me to think about the German why in 1914. How the Germans explained what had happened. Why they thought the conflict had spiraled out of control. Not surprisingly, the Germans did not blame themselves. They blamed the British.
“When the British declared war on Germany, they said it was because Germany had invaded neutral Belgium. But the Germans never considered this to be true. If this were really the case, they argued, England could have warned Germany earlier that such an act would lead them to declare war. And the British never did that, despite many opportunities. From the German perspective, the British had not made their intentions clear because Britain had wanted war all along. Why? Not because they were out for blood—but because they were afraid. Germany had only unified forty years earlier, but it was already developing and strengthening at an incredible pace. The British knew they would eventually have to confront an even stronger Germany. War was inevitable, the British thought. And so, they decided that it was best to have it sooner rather than later—while Germany had not reached its full potential.
“The invasion of Belgium was just an excuse, the Germans believed. This was a pre-emptive war staged by the British. It could have been avoided—if not for the fact that England was too afraid of an even more advanced and formidable Germany in the future. What the first clue does, I believe, is point us to that “German why” from the year 1914.”
He paused.
“That is also, I believe, Churchill’s Key.”
General Allen reacted first. “You are suggesting that the aliens are attacking us because they fear we might go to war with them in the future—at a point in time when we would be harder to defeat. I have to say, that doesn’t seem like it could happen anytime soon.”
“Let me say two things about that, General. First, I’m only suggesting that old-Kilmer believed this to be the case. And, if he was confident enough in his assessment to write that down for me to read later, I need to take it seriously. But I understand that others might sustain doubts. Second, I agree—it’s not clear to me why the aliens should be in a rush to attack us. It will be centuries, I assume, before we can even go looking for them. I don’t have a good answer for you on that. But we also don’t know enough about the current situation. For example, one could argue that the British should have attacked Germany even sooner than they did—when Germany was even less fo
rmidable. But you can’t always time these things perfectly. It can be hard to amass the resources, build the support, and manufacture the justifications necessary for war. The opportunity isn’t always there, and when it is… that’s when you seize it. Maybe something similar is going on here. I don’t know.”
Silla chimed in. “If the aliens are playing the role that the Germans claim was played by the British, it explains not only why they’re intent on harming us, but why they refuse to tell us what we’ve done to provoke them. If Professor Kilmer is right, the answer is we haven’t done anything yet. It’s the fear of what we might do in the future that’s driving them. Fear of our future capabilities could also explain why they seem unwilling to share or reveal their technology.”
“If true,” Nielsen added, “it would shed light on a question that you raised, Professor, the very first night we discussed all of this. Why now? Why didn’t they come when we were living in caves or when dinosaurs roamed the Earth? We might wonder why they don’t wait a few more centuries before attacking us, but from another point of view, they have already waited for millions of years. Life on Earth is far more advanced now than would even have been conceivable just a short time ago.”
“That’s a good point,” said Art. “We look pretty weak if we do a static analysis of our capabilities compared to theirs. But a dynamic analysis might be worrisome. Our rate of growth has been exponential in recent years. Maybe we’re gaining on them in ways that they don’t like.”
“Strauss? What do you think?” Whitman asked.
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