by Bobby Akart
Why Australia and New Zealand? A nuclear war would presumably occur mainly or entirely in the northern hemisphere. The southern hemisphere would still experience environmental disruption, but it would not be as severe. Australia and New Zealand further benefit from being surrounded by water which further softens the effect.
This is hardly a cheerful thought as it leaves open the chance of human extinction, at least for those of us north of the equator. Given all the uncertainty and the limited available research, it is impossible to rule out the possibility of human extinction. In any event, the possibility should not be dismissed.
Even if people survive, there could still be permanent harm to humanity. Small patches of survivors would be extremely vulnerable to subsequent disasters. They certainly could not keep up the massively complex civilization we enjoy today. In addition to the medical impact, the destruction of the power grid, the heartbeat of most nations, would likely occur due to the electromagnetic pulse generated by the nuclear detonations. It would take many years to rebuild the critical infrastructure ruined by the blasts.
It would be a long and uncertain rebuilding process and survivors might never get civilization back to where it is now. More importantly, they might never get civilization to where we now stand poised to take it in the future. Our potentially bright future could be forever dimmed, permanently.
Nuclear winter is a very large and serious risk. In some ways, it doesn’t change nuclear weapons policy all that much. Everyone already knew that nuclear war would be highly catastrophic. The prospect of a prolonged nuclear winter means that nuclear war is even more catastrophic. That only reinforces policies that have long been in place, from deterrence to disarmament. Indeed, military officials have sometimes reacted to nuclear winter by saying that it just makes their nuclear deterrence policies that much more effective. Disarmament advocates similarly cite nuclear winter as justifying their policy goals. But the basic structure of the policy debate remains unchanged.
In other ways, the prospect of nuclear winter changes nuclear weapons policy quite dramatically. Because of nuclear winter, noncombatant states may be severely harmed by nuclear war. Nuclear winter gives every country great incentive to reduce tensions and de-escalate conflicts between nuclear-capable states.
Nation-states that are stockpiling nuclear weapons should also take notice. Indeed, the biggest policy implication of nuclear winter could be that it puts the interests of nuclear-capable nations in greater alignment. Because of nuclear winter, a nuclear war between any two major nuclear weapon states could severely harm each of the others. According to intelligence sources, there are nine total nuclear-armed states with Iran prepared to breakthrough as the tenth. This multiplies the risk of being harmed by nuclear attacks while only marginally increasing the benefits of nuclear deterrence. By shifting the balance of harms versus benefits, nuclear winter can promote nuclear disarmament.
Additional policy implications come from the risk of permanent harm to human civilization. If society takes this risk seriously, then it should go to great lengths to reduce the risk. It could stockpile food to avoid nuclear famine or develop new agricultural paradigms that can function during nuclear winter.
And it could certainly ratchet up its efforts to improve relations between nuclear weapon states. These are things that we can do right now even while we await more detailed research on nuclear winter risk.
Against that backdrop, I hope you’ll be entertained and informed by this fictional account of the world thrust into Nuclear Winter. God help us if it ever comes to pass.
Real-World News Excerpts
BRITAIN to BOOST NUCLEAR WEAPONS STOCKPILE
~ Wall Street Journal, March 2021
After its departure from the European Union, the U.K. seeks more sway in the Indo-Pacific region
Following its exit from the European Union last year, Britain is looking to carve its place in a more volatile and fragmented international system while bolstering its economy through greater global trade.
In a radical departure from the past, however, the strategy document outlines an ambitious redirection of London's priorities towards Asia.
"The UK will deepen our engagement in the Indo-Pacific, establishing a greater and more persistent presence than any other European country.
Yet, by far the most surprising development is Britain's announced intention to increase its stockpile of nuclear warheads from 180 to 260, an unprecedented boost of around 40 per cent in the country's total nuclear arsenal. And, just as significantly, the British government has now removed its self-imposed cap on the number of nuclear warheads that are deemed "operational" and can therefore be fired at any given time.
IRAN, RUSSIA DENOUNCE UK PLAN TO BOOST NUCLEAR ARSENAL
~ Channel News Asia, March 2021
Iran and Russia on Wednesday denounced the UK's decision to bolster its nuclear arsenal, with the Islamic republic accusing it of "hypocrisy" and the Kremlin warning the move threatens international stability.
"In utter hypocrisy, the British Prime Minister) is concerned about Iran developing a viable nuclear weapon," Iran's Foreign Minister tweeted. "On the very same day he announces his country will increase its stockpile of nukes. Unlike the UK and allies, Iran believes nukes and all WMDs (weapons of mass destruction) are barbaric & must be eradicated."
"We are very sorry that the UK has chosen this path of increasing nuclear warheads. This decision harms international stability and strategic security," a Kremlin spokesman said. "The presence of nuclear warheads is what threatens peace throughout the world."
IRAN HAS BUILT NEW BALLISTIC MISSILE LAUNCH POSITIONS
~ Fox News, March 2021
Satellite images reveal 4 holes dug into mountainside
The Iranian Khorgo underground ballistic missile site is almost operational after new launching positions were constructed, satellite images obtained by Fox News reveal.
Construction on the ballistic missile site resulted in recent months as the Iranians ramp up work on the launching positions that can rapidly deploy two ballistic missiles each. The Iranian site sits approximately 500 miles from Kuwait, a country that houses more than 13,000 American troops, and less than 200 miles from the United Arab Emirates, a key U.S. partner.
Would Israel Dare Attack Iran’s Nuclear Facilities?
~ National Interest, April 2021
There’s once again talk that Israel might make a move to attack Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
There has been frequent speculation over the last two decades that Israel could launch such an attack on Iran, but while Israel is believed to have undergone various efforts to sabotage Iran’s nuclear capability, they have not yet launched a full-on first strike.
The Brookings Institution notes that it would make sense for Israel to strike Iran “sooner rather than later.” The question is how Iran would respond to such a strike. Would it order Hezbollah and other proxies to attack Israel? Attack Israel with ballistic missiles? Launch a full-on war in response?
RUSSIA TO BOOST TIES WITH PAKISTAN, SUPPLY MILITARY GEAR
~ ABC News, April 2021
The two nations will boost military ties.
Russia’s foreign minister said Moscow and Islamabad will boost ties with Russia providing unspecified military equipment to Pakistan and the two holding joint exercises at sea and in the mountains.
Pakistan wants regional cooperation, though he did not mention Pakistan's uneasy relationship with neighbor India.
The accord underlines the waning influence of the United States in the region, while Russian and Chinese clout grows.
“There’s a good reason why this is the first Russian foreign minister visit to Islamabad for nearly a decade: Russia-Pakistan relations are on the ascent,” a Russian spokesman said in an interview. He also noted a new 25-year development military agreement between Iran and China.
KIM JONG UN’s POWERFUL SISTER SENDS WARNING TO BIDEN
~ CNBC, March 2021
Kim Yo Jong, the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, sent an eerie message to the United States.
"We take this opportunity to warn the new U.S. administration trying hard to give off [gun] powder smell in our land,” Kim Yo Jong said in a statement referencing joint U.S. and South Korean military exercises in the region.
“If it [the U.S.] wants to sleep in peace for the coming four years, it had better refrain from causing a stink at its first step,” she added, according to an English translation.
The Trump administration made some initial progress with North Korea, but the negotiations broke down more than a year ago after the U.S. refused to grant sanctions relief in exchange for Pyongyang’s dismantling of nuclear weapons and long-range missiles.
The Biden administration has tried unsuccessfully to restart nuke talks with North Korea.
Under third-generation North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, the reclusive state has conducted its most powerful nuclear test recently, launching its first-ever intercontinental ballistic missile and threatening to send missiles into the waters near the U.S. territory of Guam.
Contents
Epigraph
Prologue
Part I
Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
Chapter 6
Chapter 7
Chapter 8
Chapter 9
Part II
Chapter 10
Chapter 11
Chapter 12
Chapter 13
Chapter 14
Chapter 15
Chapter 16
Chapter 17
Chapter 18
Chapter 19
Part III
Chapter 20
Chapter 21
Chapter 22
Chapter 23
Chapter 24
Chapter 25
Chapter 26
Part IV
Chapter 27
Chapter 28
Chapter 29
Chapter 30
Chapter 31
Chapter 32
Chapter 33
Chapter 34
Chapter 35
Chapter 36
Part V
Chapter 37
Chapter 38
Chapter 39
Chapter 40
Chapter 41
Chapter 42
Chapter 43
Chapter 44
Part VI
Chapter 45
Chapter 46
Chapter 47
Chapter 48
Chapter 49
Chapter 50
Chapter 51
Chapter 52
Chapter 53
Chapter 54
Chapter 55
THANK YOU FOR READING NUCLEAR WINTER: WHITEOUT!
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Epigraph
“Life on Earth is at the ever-increasing risk of being wiped by a disaster such as sudden global nuclear war ...”
~ Stephen Hawking, theoretical physicist
There are two problems with our species’ survival—nuclear war and environmental catastrophe, and we’re hurtling towards them. Knowingly.
~ Noam Chomsky, cognitive scientist
The leaders of the world face no greater task than that of avoiding nuclear war.
~ Robert F. Kennedy, American politician
Nothing conceived by the human mind except Heaven and nuclear winter is eternal.
~ Jeffrey Zeldman, American entrepreneur
I think I can, I think I can.
~ The Little Engine that Could
Prologue
Wednesday, October 30
Mount Weather Emergency Operations Center
Northern Virginia
Despite the dire circumstances America faced and the unusual conditions under which her government operated, the media from around the world continued to clamor for information. The nuclear detonations had succeeded in collapsing the power grid and associated critical infrastructure across most of America. Nonetheless, information was still being disseminated to her citizens via shortwave radio, satellite television broadcasts, and word of mouth.
President Carter Helton’s psychological condition had deteriorated in the initial period following the attacks. Over several days, with the assistance of the White House physician and his close friend Chief of Staff Harrison Chandler, he’d gradually regained control. For the first time since the nuclear warhead struck Washington, DC, he was going to address the nation and then take questions from the media.
His address was going to be like no other in American history. It would rank alongside George Washington’s Farewell Address in 1796 and Abraham Lincoln’s Gettysburg Address of 1863. Its tone and tenor were completely opposite of other national addresses like John F. Kennedy’s inaugural address of 1961 in which he said, “Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country.” Nor did President Helton call out the enemy like FDR did in his war message to Congress in 1941 following the attack on Pearl Harbor.
No. President Helton focused his efforts on controlling the American people.
In the press room of the Mount Weather Emergency Operations Center in Northern Virginia, the two dozen reporters who’d remained embedded with the Helton administration throughout the entire ordeal shifted uneasily in their seats. They’d been starved for information, receiving only what the president’s chief of staff allowed to be leaked to the press pool. This would be their first opportunity to see the president speak and to ask him questions.
The atmosphere was far different from a normal press briefing, where the television media reporters would be standing with their network cameras focused on their pre-address comments. They would be relaying to the viewing audience what they expected the president to say and what it meant. That was not the case on this occasion. There was only one camera that would be focused on the president. Network feeds were unnecessary, as there were no American news outlets capable of receiving them. The broadcast would be sent out via satellite to foreign news networks, who would then share it as circumstances allowed.
The administration’s staff tried to convey a sense of normalcy despite their harried looks off-camera. The stage for the address had been set. The Blue Goose, the nickname for the large blue podium adorned with the seal of the President of the United States, was an exact replica of the one likely destroyed in the nuclear detonation near the White House. It had remained perched atop a raised stage, awaiting a presidential address, since the moment they’d entered Mount Weather a week ago.
Flanking the podium to the president’s right as he spoke was the United States flag, a symbol of America’s historic journey from rebellion to exceptionalism. On the other side of the Blue Goose was the flag of the president, the presidential coat of arms on a dark blue background.
Suddenly, with little warning, Chandler announced the president would be coming out within sixty seconds. Any reporters milling about scrambled to take a seat. The muffled conversations of the attendees became an eerie hush as if an invisible hand had hit the mute button. At the start, the media was respectful, as most understood the gravity of this address.
A red light was illuminated on the sole, somewhat antiquated camera that sat in the center of the media seating. Its technology was a decade old but sufficient to broadcast to the U.S. military satellites in low-Earth orbit for further transmission around the globe.
If Peter Albright had been present, he would’ve been struck by the entourage who accompanied the president onto the stage. To be sure, the director of the nation’s Department of Homeland Security was to be expected. Most assumed the secretaries of transportation and energy, who oversaw the nation’s critical infrastructure, would be present. Perhaps the secretary of agriculture and her counterpart at the commerce department would be there to address t
he recovery effort.
But an audible gasp filled the room together with a smattering of whispers when the only people by the president’s side were his attorney general and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the highest-ranking and most senior military officer in the armed forces.
Many in the room speculated internally that the president was going to ask for a war declaration from Congress, hence the presence of the CJCS. But what would be the purpose of the nation’s top legal advisor being present? They would soon find out, as the president had just settled in behind the podium.