Hanson nodded "It makes sense, Lane The Reds are going to be blindsided Once they've committed to the attack on the Nationalist beach head, they won't have the mobile assets available to react to the UDFC offensive "
"What will happen to the Nationalists?"
"The Reds might be able to gain a few kilometers here and there, but they won't be able to concentrate and follow through with their offensive They'll be caught in the worst of both worlds "
"Yes, sir," the briefer added "That will be about the shape of it We are projecting that the Reds are going to lose the bulk of the Third Guards Tank Army By this time next week, the Rebels should have broken through down at Shan tall and will be driving north to link up with the Nationalists With all of their theater reserves either burned up or committed, the Reds aren't going to be able to stop them "
The room lights came up and the briefing officer came to a parade rest beside the briefing screen, his Joint Chiefs of Staff identification badge glinting "We project that the PRC defenses are going to collapse and they are going to lose all of Fujian Province They probably aren't going to be able to restabilize the front again until somewhere up around the Wenzhou River line."
"And then?" Lane Ashley asked "That's still anybody's guess, ma'am The RAND conflict-simulation teams haven't yet extended their projections beyond that point "
"Then make it your own best educated guess, Major In your opinion, how serious a setback will this be for the Communists' ?"
"Very serious, ma'am This is a critical battle, a nexal point in the course of the war Something like Gettysburg or Stalingrad If the Reds lose this one, and the odds are they will, I can't see how they'll be able to recover "
"I'll buy into that assessment," Sam Hanson added "I think that we're seeing the beginning of the end here "
"I don't like the sound of that phrase," the NSA woman said grimly
"Major, how about the Communist nuclear arsenal" Has there been any change of status reported?"
"We have no new information on that subject at this time, ma'am "
EAST CHINA SEA 110 MILES NORTH OF CHILUNG, TAIWAN
2221 HOURS ZONE TIME; AUGUST 8, 2006
"It looks to me like we're seeing it all across the board "
"Yeah We're still getting a set level of work transitones off the fishing fleet, but fa' sure we're not hearing the engines as much These guys are falling back on sail and oar power more and more all the time "
"That would indicate to me that the Reds are stepping up their fuel rationing '
"Very possible, Jer, but I don't think we've got a long enough baseline to call it for certain sure yet It could be that the locals are just taking advantage of a long stretch of favorable coastal winds We'll cross reference this tomorrow with the net reports from the past couple of weeks and see what we shall see "
They had been at it in Raven's Roost for over five hours now Lieutenant Jg) Gerald Selkirk's eyes felt as if they were lined with sandpaper and a pulsing headache thudded at the back of his skull His boss, however, seemed to still be going strong The only clue she gave to the protracted length of this analysis session was the mound of candy-bar wrappers growing beside her on the workstation console That, and the glasses Christine Rendino donned her glasses only when she had a massive load of close work Even then, they were rarely actually looked through Rather, Chris kept them shoved up onto her forehead, an accessory and an adjunct to her high intensity thinking
"Okay, Jerry, what's next on the boards'?"
Selkirk fumbled for his personal-computer pad Lieutenant Rendino apparently wasn't ready to call it quits for the night yet Truth be told, he didn't mind it too much The Duke's senior intel might look like his kid sister, but watching her work was a continually fascinating and humbling experience "Well," he said, "Fleet intelligence is on the lookout for
a Red Chinese coastal convoy Seems they've lost track of one somewhere "
"Whoa, somebody was a Mr. Fumble-fingers What got lost?"
"A five-ship group," Selkirk replied "One coaster of about six hundred fifty tons' displacement, two more of about three hundred tons, one two-hundred-tonner, and all escorted by a single Shanghai IV-class patrol boat "
"What dope do we have on '?"
"It formed up at the Port of Quigdao Loading a mixed cargo of military stores, possibly rations, lubricants, and equipment spares, it sailed on the night of the second, heading south "
As he spoke, Lieutenant Rendino's fingers began to clatter across the terminal keyboard in front of her, calling up a theater map out of the navigational database "Satellite recon then spotted the convoy at the ports of Shijiusuo, Lianyungang, and Sheyang sequentially during the daylight hours of the third, fourth, and fifth The ships only appeared to be laying over No indication of cargo handling "
The Intel's right hand shifted over to the workstation's mouse, clicking off the location points
"One night track is listed, off Andongwei Point, between Shijiusuo and Lianyungang The formation was painted on radar by one of our P3E's flying out of Seoul Again running south, hugging the coast, at about eight to ten knots "
"Pretty straight so far," Rendino commented "They were playing bunny rabbit, hedge hopping down the coast They'd lay up in a defended anchorage during the day and steam only at night to duck the Nationalists What next?"
"Track was lost down around Shanghai According to this, the two medium-size coasters may have shown up down at Hangzhou Wan, but the other units have disappeared Fleet wants to know what happened to them and to the stores they were carrying They've queried us as to whether any of our hydrophone buoys may have gotten anything "
"Could be, Jer Number one is just north of the Yangtze estuary, right on what should have been their course line Pull the latest downloads for that hummer and let's have a look at them "
Selkirk pushed his chair back the scant foot permitted by the narrow central passage of the intelligence bay and reached over his shoulder to the disc-storage rack Selecting the appropriate CD case, he rolled into place again Cycling one of the loading trays, he fed the disc into the system "Set," he said, accessing the data from his half of the analysis station "Okay, call up the audio tracks from the early morning of the sixth Time reference about 0200 to 0500 hours Set your search gates for a package of four medium-speed, single screw diesels and one high-speed, multiscrew diesel"
"Searching "
The signal processors scanned through the compressed data on the disc, seeking for one specific pattern and, after a few moments, finding it Another flatscreen lit off, a cascade display showing a pattern of five passive sonar signals Five bands of shimmering light flowing from the top of the monitor to the bottom, each band carrying the sound signature generated by a specific ship as it had passed by the listening buoy Lieutenant Rendino clicked on the audio feed and ran the volume bar full over
Now they could hear them the churning cavitation of propellers, the rumble of power plant noise, the hiss and slap of hulls butting through the waves Even without the processing of the cascade display, the trained ears of the two intelligence officers could begin to make out the individuality of the vessels The clatter of a loose shaft hub, the repetitive chirp of a bent screw blade, an intermittent thud as some poorly secured piece of cargo shifted with the roll of the deck As clearly as with their eyes, they could see the convoy slipping through the night "Okay," Selkirk reported
"Speed by blade count is between eight and ten knots No aspect change They aren't zigzagging Exact time index is oh three one oh hours "
"Yeah" Christine nodded "That's just about right That'd put ' off the Yangtze estuary at first light They laid over in Shanghai, and then moved on again Why'd Fleet miss that?"
"Don't know, Lieutenant "
"Jer, call up the Shanghai data annex Access maritime and naval activity for the day of the sixth and see if anything's listed that matches up with this outfit "
"Aye, aye " Selkirk's hands played his keyboard, his eyes sweeping across the g
lowing lines of text that welled up in response It took him perhaps five minutes to be sure "Nothing No shipping groups that match up No individual vessels listed in port at the time that could have been part of the convoy Damn little activity of any kind "
"Well, sea rew! Where did those guys get to?" Rendino frowned, pondering
"They might have gone upriver The Yangtze is deep hull navigable for better than a thousand miles upstream "
"Maybe, but let's be sure Load the dump from buoy two It's just south of the estuary If the convo) ducked us some how and continued on downcoast, number two should have 'em
The disc exchange took only a moment "Set"
"Okay, Jerry Search for the convoy's sound signature, twenty one ten hours to twenty-four hundred hours "
"Searching nothing They're not there "Well, sea-rew again Widen the search gates Full scan of the sixth, the entire twenty four hours ' This time the search took a little longer Five familiar traces flowed down the Cascade display
"Got '," Selkirk announced "The buoy acquired them at time reference oh seven three one "
"What!" Christine Rendino's chair slammed upright as she leaned into the screen
"They bypassed! They bypassed Shanghai altogether and kept running on down the coast in broad daylight!"
"That's a major change in policy "
"It sure is, and given their location, it's a real dumb one as I think these guys are about to find out"
The signature tracks on the display began to broaden and waver slightly
"Blade count is increasing and we're getting aspect changes They're tacking on speed and starting to zigzag "
"Fa' sure I'd guess so This should be interesting "
For a full three minutes they watched the weaving traces Then one of the five lines abruptly terminated in a spherical blob of greenish luminescence "Hold it," Christine snapped
"Backtrack thirty seconds Replay and bring up the audio."
This time they listened to the desperate hammering of racing propellers as the convoy lumberingly sought to evade, then the hollow reverberating slam, like a giant's fist driving into the side of a fifty foot oil drum The lighter, faster beat of the escorting patrol boat's screws ceased As the reverberations of the blast faded, they heard the thud of secondary explosions and the crack and squeal of tearing metal The sound of a ship starting to break up
"Quiz time, dude What did we just hear?"
"An above-the-waterh-line hit on a small hull " Selkirk answered promptly, accustomed to this kind of drill from his division officer
'-size warhead Single detonation A precision guided munition of some kind, probably an antishipping missile Since the buoy wasn't picking up on any other surface or submarine sound sources in the area, it was probably air launched "
"Very good Now that they've killed the guy with all the antiaircraft guns, it's playtime" Lieutenant Rendino extended her hand and indicated one of the remaining tracks on the cascade display with her forefinger
"He's next "
As if in response to the tap of her fingernail, the track flared out into another death blossom The crash of the missile hit echoed from the speaker "There went the biggest coaster" Christine squirmed a little in her chair "God! Watching a real pro at work always makes me hot "
Reaching forward again, she aimed the finger of doom at another track
"Now this guy In about one minute "
It was ten seconds short of a minute when the first harsh burp of sound issued from the speaker, a baritone snarl like the ripping of canvas
"Can you call that one, Jer!"
Selkirk shook his head regretfully "Cannon fire hitting the water,"
Christine continued "They're strafing the smallest coaster "
They listened on as the aerial predators slashed at their prey The steady thrum of the coaster's propeller began to stagger like the beat of a failing heart and then stopped There were no further fireworks, and the screws of the two surviving Communist vessels began to fade in the distance Lieutenant Rendino switched off the recording ' You're going to be writing this up for Fleet, Jer What are you going to say about it?"
Selkirk took a deliberate breath to buy himself a couple of seconds of thinking time ' ' Red convoy was engaged south of the Yangtze estuary by a Nationalist Air Force antishipping sweep Given the position and timing of the engagement, the Nationalist strike presumably consisted of two Ching Kuo fighter-bombers, staging out of their air base at Chilung in northern Taiwan "This would match the performance and range envelope of the Ching Kuo operating with a Standard antishipping load-out consisting of one Hsiung Feng II antishipping missile plus drop tanks The targeting and fire template of the strike itself appears to match this load out as well
"Three bogeys were killed--the escort, the six hundred and fifty-ton coaster, and the two-hundred-tonner The two surviving coasters proceeded on to the anchorage at Hang zhou Wan All targets accounted for "
Lieutenant Rendino nodded approvingly "Not bad But you missed three points that Fleet may be able to make some use of Point one, the Nationalists were using air-to-air refueling Yeah, a Ching could reach the engagement point from Chi-lung on one strike load, but just barely These guys were boogyin' around at low altitude for an extended period of time as if they were running fat on gas
"Point two " The blond Intel ticked it off on her fingers "This was a full four-plane flight, not a two-plane element Again, these guys were hanging around down on the deck, without a care in the world, within a few miles of a major Red air base This says to me that they had a couple of little buddies up on high, ready to do nasty things to any party crashers "
"Yeah, I can see that now " Damn! Why couldn't I see it before"
"What's the third point"?"
"That a real old salty dog was leading this pack He took his tune, eyeballed the tactical situation, and killed the sole immediate threat with his first shot, then apportioned his remaining ordnance out to the maximum amount of damage to the surviving targets. Bet he was at least the squadron exec, maybe even the old man himself."
Selkirk shook his head in wry self-abasement. "Why do I even try. Nobody can touch the master."
Christine Rendino grinned and shrugged. "Hey, what can I say? Being just totally cool comes naturally to me. It's one of those genetic things.
Seriously, though, Lieutenant, if you're planning to stick with intelligence work as a career track, you've got to remember one key thing. It's not enough to just go around cataloging what the other guy is doing.
You've got to be able to crawl inside his brain and figure out why he's doing it before you've got the whole package." A thoughtful expression suddenly passed over her face.
"Like, for example, why did those poor damn Chinese decide to commit suicide the way they did?"
"You mean by running in daylight?"
"Yeah. Admittedly, darkness isn't as much cover as it once was, but it's still something. That convoy was right outside of Shanghai, the most heavily defended port facility the Reds have. Why didn't they lay over again and wait for nightfall, like they'd been doing along the rest of the coast?"
"They had a delivery deadline to meet?"
The senior Intel shook her head. "No. If they'd had to shave some time by running during the day, they would have done it up north, farther away from the Nationalist bases.
"They must have been ordered to bypass Shanghai for some reason, a big enough one so that the Reds were willing to risk an entire convoy of critical military stores for it. Now, what could be going on in Shanghai to justify something like that?"
Selkirk didn't have an answer for her. He suspected that she wasn't expecting one.
Christine Rendino reached into the paper bag that sat on the deck at her feet and removed another Milky Way. Peeling down the wrapper, she leaned forward onto the console and took a deliberate first bite, taking on a refueling load of sugar and caffeine.
All the while, she stared at the glowing map of the Shanghai approaches with the fi
xed intensity of a cat in front of a mouse hole.
200 MILES NORTH OF MIYAKO SHIMA ISLAND 1041 HOURS ZONE TIME; AUGUST 9, 2006
The vista from the climbing helicopter was one Amanda could appreciate.
If the Cunningham was the cutting edge of the U.S. Navy's presence off China, then this, Fleet Task Force 7.1, was the bulk and the strength of the blade.
Ahead, slotting the horizon at precise ten-degree intervals, were the wakes of the ASW destroyers, foam white against ocean blue as they sanitized a path for the formation. Out on either flank were the two Aegis cruisers tasked with throwing their antiair shield of radar and guided-missile firepower over their comrades.
Looking back, past the Sea Comanche's fenestron, she could make out her own ship nestled close to the Task Force's big Sacramento-class AOE. The Duke and the fast combat support ship were running side by side, their wakes merging behind them into a trailing snowy train. Fuel and cargo-handling lines bridged the meager 150-foot gap between the two vessels as the destroyer executed an UNREP, an under-way replenishment of critically needed supplies.
The centerpiece and justification of it all was just ahead, the great slab-sided form with its unique cubical island structure, a design quirk left over from a radar system that never really worked all that well. It was the grand old lady of the fleet, the USS Enterprise, jeweled by the sunfire striking off the canopies of the ranked aircraft on her decks.
"Now, that is a pretty, pretty picture," Arkady breathed into the intercom.
"I agree," Amanda replied. "This is her last West Pac.
One of her reactors has already been powered down due to neutron fatigue. When she goes home this time, it's to the breakers yard."
"Yeah." She saw his helmet bob in acknowledgment.
"I'll tell you something though, babe. On the day they haul the Big E's flag down, I'm going to take myself out and get me drunk enough to be able to cry "
"You can lend me a shoulder, Arkady I'll have a few tears to shed myself."
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