“General Burke, for the record, I also didn’t find Dr. Shaw’s theory that persuasive when she brought it up to the president last week, on entirely different grounds,” Susan said. “I believe China will continue to abide by its traditional no-first-use policy on nuclear weapons even after the government finalizes its doctrinal review. And I share your views that China has deployed its submarines as part of its planned war game. However, the two lost submarines are a troubling development. I intend to clarify the situation with the Chinese ambassador later today.” She paused for a moment to smile at Burke. “But one thing Dr. Shaw mentioned during our chat with the president last week did strike a chord with me.”
“And what, pray tell, would that be?” Burke asked snidely.
“Dr. Shaw said that the Chinese have been tinkering with a fully automated nuclear weapons delivery system using a deep neural network. A bit like our ARC system, but it may be closer to being fully autonomous. Perhaps the network has learned a clever new move, one that we humans haven’t considered before. And perhaps the Chinese are testing it out under the guise of this exercise. If autonomous systems are now part of the nuclear equation for us, then we must start considering how these systems would deter and defeat their opponents and whether that might diverge from how humans have done it in the past.”
The room went silent for a few moments, as if everyone was stunned by the notion.
“Before we close, I have one final issue,” Susan said, seizing the rare moment of silence. She looked over at Grayson expectantly. “Bill, do you foresee any problem if I decide to talk about the two submarines with Ambassador Chen at lunch today?”
Susan frowned when Grayson didn’t respond immediately. He was staring at his secure smartphone with a troubled look on his face. He didn’t appear to even hear the question.
“Ma’am, I don’t think you should raise this issue with Ambassador Chen,” Burke interjected. “We shouldn’t let the Chinese know that we know about their submarines for now. It will reveal too much about our tracking capabilities.”
He’s concerned about revealing our tracking capabilities?
Looking up from his smartphone, Grayson said, enunciating each of his words, “I disagree with General Burke. The potential risk of escalation warrants clear communication about the submarines with the Chinese. The faster we can get this situation cleared up, the better. I think that’s worth revealing something about our monitoring capabilities.”
“Thanks, Bill. I will go ahead and raise the issue with the ambassador.” Susan nodded briskly, putting her hands on the table and getting up to leave. “Okay, that’s a wrap for now. Elise will send a meeting invite for the videoconference later today.” As she turned toward the door and departed the room, a smile formed on her face.
That went exactly as I’d hoped.
22
The Oligarch Theory
MORGAN
0900
Eisenhower Executive Office Building
The White House
“Well, that was intense,” Morgan said, sinking into her office chair and exhaling sharply. “Next time I complain about you not taking me to these meetings, please remind me of this experience.”
She looked up at her boss. David hovered in the entrance of her cubicle with a deep frown on his pudgy, bearded face, but he said nothing. His navy suit jacket and tie were slung over one arm, and his pinstripe shirt tugged at his belly. The dark circles under his gray-blue eyes made him look rather cross.
I hope he’s not angry with me.
Her adrenaline was still racing. In her head, she kept running through everything she’d said during the meeting and how Burke had responded, trying to determine how much damage control she’d have to do. She shook her head in disbelief. When she’d gone to breakfast with Luis that morning, the last thing she imagined happening that day was making a surprise splash at a cabinet-level meeting. It had been more like a typhoon—at least for her career.
For better or worse, I’m on Burke’s radar now.
Morgan reached for her coffee cup and took a huge gulp, the lukewarm brew sloshing down her throat. She tried to collect her thoughts, but it was hard with her boss just standing there, staring at her.
“I wish you’d given me a heads up about your China theory,” David said as if he’d finally gotten up the courage to confront her.
“You’re not mad at me, are you?” Morgan asked, releasing a sigh. “Because you can get in a long line of people, after the president and the SecDef.”
David ran his hand through his wavy brown hair. “No, I’m not mad. I just wish I’d known about it beforehand.”
After over six months of working together as colleagues, David and Morgan had become fairly close. He’d often treated her as a confidante, running ideas by her before taking them to the president. Of course, Morgan was known as one of Harrison’s favorites and having her support could go a long way in selling something to him. David had often used Morgan’s connection to the president for his own benefit, and she’d allowed it to happen. Now that Tolley was the president, the flow of that arrangement would be disrupted. Morgan sensed she was reaching persona non grata status with President Tolley.
I might actually be Tolley’s least favorite person right now.
Trying to shake off the irony, Morgan raised and lowered her shoulders. “Well, it wasn’t an official theory. More like a random musing.”
“A random musing that you just happened to share with President Monroe…”
Oh c’mon.
“David, you know I didn’t try to go over your head. I was in the Oval Office with my Uncle Jack and President Monroe having a late-night drink after a long day. Tolley happened to come by the office before heading home and joined in our discussion. I never meant for her to overhear it. And I certainly didn’t anticipate all the events that followed—particularly, President Monroe’s death. I’m sorry if you feel slighted.”
“Well, I can’t give you any top cover when I’m in the dark,” he said. There was a defensiveness to his tone she didn’t like. She wondered for a moment how their working relationship might change under the new administration.
This doesn’t bode well.
Morgan pinched her lips. “Give me a break, David. I wish I’d known Tolley was going to call on me. Weren’t you wondering why the president wanted me to attend a cabinet-level meeting when Elise called you this morning? When she clearly doesn’t like me…”
Where was my heads up?
“Yeah, that was a bit odd, wasn’t it?” David said, his brow furrowing. “I’m now worried about the dangerous fallout that will be coming your way. You’re the director of defense issues on the National Security Council staff. Knowing what I know about Burke, he’s going to call for your removal when he gets back to the Pentagon this morning. I don’t think anyone will be able to stop him.”
So… Tolley set me up with Burke.
Morgan stuck out her chin. “Well, if Burke comes after you, feel free to duck down and send him my way. I can handle anything that bastard throws at me.”
David broke eye contact and rubbed the back of his neck. “If you say so.”
Perhaps Tolley wants to get Burke to fire me. So she doesn’t have to do it.
“Now that I think of it,” Morgan said, pursing her lips, “maybe Tolley wanted to raise the scenario herself, but she didn’t want to deal with Burke’s ridicule or the aftermath. So instead, she invites me to the meeting, waits to call on me until exactly the right time, and then trots me out there in front of everyone to make a controversial point for her.”
If I’m right, she’s definitely a shrewd operator. More so than I thought.
“You do serve at the pleasure of the president.” David gave her a slight smirk. “Take it as a compliment. If that’s true, she obviously thinks you’re useful for fending off Burke.”
Morgan grinned, flashing her teeth. “That’s just great. It’s my forever dream come true. To be the punching bag for the
president’s adversaries.”
“What did you think about the Russia connection?” David asked, changing the subject.
Morgan’s forehead creased. “I’m not sure if I buy the notion of the tweets coming from the Russian government. The Russian Federal Security Service is certainly not above engaging in dangerous shenanigans on social media. And they’re highly skilled in designing effective global disinformation campaigns to achieve Russia’s political ends. But I don’t think the Russian government would risk instigating a conflict involving nuclear weapons.”
David put his hand on his forehead. “Yeah, things have become far more precarious now that we have nuclear-capable hypersonic missiles deployed in several countries. When you’ve got delivery systems capable of hitting any target around the world in fifteen minutes or less, you have to think twice about engaging in any escalatory behavior. A single post on social media could go viral and lead a conflict to spin out of control, and then a few minutes later, everyone in the world is dead.”
“Thanks for that uplifting image, Dr. Doom.” Morgan grimaced at him, and he laughed. “Yeah, there’s no way Russia would want to catalyze a nuclear exchange between the U.S. and China. Some of the radioactive fallout would likely reach into Far East Russia where the Russian Pacific Fleet is headquartered. That would be like shooting themselves in both feet and both hands and then swallowing a grenade.”
David laughed out loud.
Morgan’s adrenaline flowed freely. Discussing the worst-case scenarios in a matter-of-fact sort of way without breaking a sweat was what she loved most about her job in national security. It attracted her kind of people—they were nerdy, pragmatic, and somewhat twisted in the head.
She rubbed her chin as she considered a thought. “I do recall reading about Russia’s belligerent opposition to the U.S.-China clean energy deal in the headlines a few months ago. At one point, the Russian president even threatened a precipitous decline in relations with both China and the U.S. if the deal went through. I assumed they were just blowing smoke. The Russians have plenty of other customers eager to buy their natural gas supplies. And then they didn’t do anything when the deal was signed except huff and puff about it.”
“Well, Russia’s economy still depends on revenues from its oil and natural gas resources. With the Arctic opening up as a result of warmer temperatures, the Russians hope to capitalize on additional deposits formerly inaccessible under the ice. They were planning to sell their abundant supplies to China and other Asian customers as they’ve done for the past fifteen years.”
“True,” Morgan said.
Under the clean energy deal, China agreed to reduce the volume of its oil and natural gas purchases, replacing carbon-heavy sources with biofuels produced with sunlight and algae. They also agreed to add more capacity in nuclear, hydro, geothermal, wind, and solar energy. Morgan knew other countries would never be able to replace the huge volumes of natural gas Russia sold to China. The Russian government would be highly motivated to tank the deal.
A lightbulb went on in Morgan’s head. “Okay, let’s assume the U.S.-China clean energy deal has pissed off Russia enough to stir up trouble. Who in Russia stands to lose the most?”
“What do you mean?” David asked.
“What if the individual who hacked the China Xinhua News handle and posted the tweets is indeed Russian, but not an agent of the Russian government?”
“Hmm, you might be on to something,” David said, pausing to think for a moment. “How about a Russian oligarch with major interests in the oil and natural gas industry and strong ties to organized crime? That gives us motive and opportunity.”
“Yeah,” Morgan said, furrowing her brow. “Someone with major interests in oil and natural gas and a close relationship to the Russian president so that he’s a trusted agent. But not too close, to offer plausible deniability. But also someone not afraid to orchestrate a rogue operation that might lead to the collapse of the clean energy deal. That would be of great benefit to the Russian government.”
“Which Russian oligarchs fit the bill?” David asked.
“Off the top of my head, I’m not sure. But whoever it may be, they might not understand how dire the crisis between the U.S. and China has become. I’m pretty certain no oligarch in Russia would be looking for a nuclear war, but they might accidently stumble into one. Maybe we should ask Mike Palmer? As the senior director for European and Russian Affairs, he’d keep himself apprised of the activities of Russian oligarchs. He could probably narrow the list or at least point us in the right direction.”
“Good idea,” David said. “I’ll let my assistant know we’re going to pay him a visit.”
23
The Read-Ahead
GRACE
0905
E Ring, The Pentagon
Arlington, Virginia
With one eye glued on the door, Grace listened intently as General Hawkins went over the detailed procedures for ARC’s test and evaluation scheduled for later that day. She clasped her hands in her lap and tried to keep them from shaking. But her heart thumped so loudly she was certain Arjun, who was sitting next to her, could hear it.
Sooner or later, Hawkins would ask a question provoked by her comments in the read-ahead document. And without Martinez to come to her rescue, she envisioned a verbal bloodbath taking place with her as the main casualty.
“Focusing on our conflict with China over Hong Kong, the theme of today’s simulation couldn’t be more timely,” Hawkins said. “Although it’s been planned for two weeks, we’ve updated the simulation to take recent events into account.” He paused for a moment while scanning the read-ahead. “What’s this about a false positive?” Hawkins asked, looking around the room at the blank faces at the table. He frowned when no one answered immediately. “Can anyone explain why this was flagged for the chairman’s attention?”
That’s the issue he’s worried about? Not ARC’s recommendations?
Stealing a glance at Arjun, she noticed a smug look on his face.
Did Dietz get to Hawkins before the meeting?
Captain Dietz cleared his throat. “Uh, sir, that note was apparently added to the read-ahead by Colonel Martinez at the behest of Major Lim.”
Hawkins grunted and stared down his nose at Dietz. “Then I take it no one from the J6 senior leadership cleared the addition?”
“No, sir. We most certainly did not.” He leaned forward to look at his boss.
Lieutenant General Myers nodded in agreement.
“Are you suggesting that the J6 is unable to manage its subordinates effectively?” Hawkins asked.
Dietz shrank back. “No, sir. I am not.”
“Huh,” Hawkins grunted. “Because mounting evidence suggests the contrary.” His sarcasm was unmistakable. Then he turned to look at Grace, his steely gray eyes penetrating hers. “Major Lim, would you care to take a seat at the table and explain yourself?”
Seat at the table?
For a moment, Grace’s body was paralyzed.
“Major, we don’t have all day.” Hawkins motioned impatiently for her to take the empty seat next to her boss.
She did so without further delay, an empty pit forming in her stomach. The feet of her leather swivel chair screeched against the floor as she pulled it forward. Before looking at Hawkins, she glanced down at her notes to recall the key points she’d wanted to raise with the chairman.
“Any day now…” Hawkins said.
Grace looked up from her notes and nodded tentatively, her face flushing pink. “Um, sir, the ARC system recommends that U.S. Strategic Command raise the alert of our nuclear forces to DEFCON 3. Moreover, the system recommends we undertake a countermove to restore strategic stability. I found this to be rather irregular.”
Hawkins scrutinized the text in the read-ahead. “Ah, yes, I thought that was a rather interesting development as well. I see here that ARC recommends we disrupt low frequency communications between China’s command and control satellite and its
submarines. By jamming the frequencies available to submarines located deep underwater, we can force them to come to the surface in order to communicate.” He grunted. “DEFCON 3 might be overkill, but the jamming sounds like a reasonable countermove. It would send a pretty clear message to China to get its submarines out of our coastal waters. What’s the problem?”
Eyeing the door, Grace bit her lip. “Sir, the problem is that to function as expected, the model of nuclear deterrence requires the ARC system to interpret the forward deployment of China’s submarines as a defensive move. But given the nature of ARC’s recommendations, I believe it has assessed China to have a new offensive doctrine for its nuclear-armed submarine force.”
“You’re suggesting that ARC is not functioning properly?” Hawkins asked, his eyebrow raised.
“Yes, sir. That’s exactly what I’m saying,” Grace said. “We’re using the model of deterrence as a failsafe to ensure that ARC continues to function as expected and doesn’t learn new moves, in particular how to fight and win a nuclear war. I believe ARC has exceeded the parameters of the model. The recommendation to go to DEFCON 3 in response to defensive maneuvering by China deviates from the model of nuclear deterrence. The anomaly suggests the ARC system is no longer functioning as expected.”
“And that’s the false positive you’ve referenced in the read-ahead.” Hawkins studied the paper.
“Yes, sir,” Grace said.
His eyes moved slowly up and down as he read. “Okay, then please explain to me why ARC is producing such a recommendation. How do you know for sure that the system isn’t functioning properly?”
Grace glanced at the door again, her lip quivering.
Where’s Colonel Martinez?
“Sir, I don’t know for sure. I can’t explain it,” she said.
Hawkins’ eyes grew large, and his mouth fell open. “You don’t know why? What do you mean you can’t explain it?”
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