Should I just keep the desk to avoid further disruption?
She rubbed her chin. To Susan, it seemed like the right thing to do given the circumstances. Or did she actually prefer the Theodore Roosevelt desk from her old office at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building? Though a few inches shorter than the Resolute desk, it provided a larger surface area for spreading out paperwork.
I did like that desk.
Of course, there were sentimental reasons to keep the Resolute desk in its place. Franklin D. Roosevelt had been one of many presidents to use the desk. It was a gift from Queen Victoria and was made from the timbers of the British Arctic exploration ship, the HMS Resolute. With the autonomous weapons legislation waiting for her signature and the presence of China’s submarines in the Arctic’s Northwest Passage, Susan felt a kinship with both Roosevelt and the desk. President Roosevelt had given the order to launch the Manhattan Project in 1942 from this very desk. She contemplated what must have gone through his head at the time.
It’s settled, then. I’ll leave things the way they are.
Susan turned her attention to her team and cleared her throat. “Bill, what can you tell me about the missile test?”
She considered each of the grim faces of the team Elise had gathered to analyze the latest development. Susan had kept the group intentionally small to avoid a repeat of the tense discussion between her cabinet members earlier that morning. On the couch to her right, Grayson clutched the latest intelligence on China’s missile test, his wire-rim glasses riding down the tip of his nose. David and Morgan sat next to each other on the couch to her left, both appearing to be uncomfortable for some reason. Elise hovered near one of the doors along the curved wall, ready to spring into action as usual.
“From the satellite infrared data, we know that China tested a modified Dong Feng-3 ballistic missile,” Grayson said. “It’s a two-stage, solid-fuel mobile rocket with a medium range. It was launched from a missile base near Harbin and carried a conventional payload—specifically, a kinetic kill warhead. The missile took a direct ascent as opposed to the standard ballistic trajectory.”
Direct ascent?
Susan furrowed her brow as she pictured the launch in her head. “They were trying to shoot something in outer space?”
Grayson nodded. “Yes, ma’am, it appears the Chinese tested an anti-satellite weapon.”
David grunted. “Okay, but how’s this one different from the last anti-satellite test?” he asked, sitting on the edge of the couch. “Last time, China’s anti-satellite reached low earth orbit and destroyed an aging weather satellite. We made a big deal about it, but did it really matter, beyond creating a bunch of space junk?”
Grayson’s eyes narrowed. “Well, this one is quite significant,” he said, his body movements jerky. “The Dong Feng-3 missile can reach into deep space and target our network of early warning satellites. The explosion of the nuclear weapon during the Nightfall Incident destroyed Constellation, our new layer of space sensors in low earth orbit that provided a continuous view of heat signatures on the entire earth’s surface. For this reason, we now depend entirely on our early warning satellites for the detection of a nuclear attack.”
“I still don’t understand why this test is such a big deal,” David said.
Grayson’s posture tensed, his face reddening. “This test destroyed a broken satellite in highly elliptical orbit at an extremely high velocity in a head-on collision. Our sources claim the missile test was a stunning success.”
Sensing Grayson’s intense dislike of David, Susan leaned back in her leather armchair as if she was pondering the test’s implications. Instead, she was thinking about how to manage the growing conflict between her two senior advisors. It was not at all like Grayson to treat a colleague so brusquely.
There must be something going on between them.
The last thing she needed was another egotistical showdown. Grayson had been pressuring her to consider a replacement for David from a list of several qualified candidates. To her, it was painfully obvious he was looking to fill the slot with someone more loyal to him—perhaps more submissive and agreeable. But Susan preferred to keep a competitive spirit among her senior advisors. That said, she did need to reduce internal strife in order to get things done.
Susan took a deep breath as she leaned forward. “Do you think this test is part of the Prowling Tiger war game?” She suppressed a frown when she thought about how Ambassador Chen had failed to inform her of the test in advance. Given their close friendship, that was not typical behavior for him. Perhaps he’d come clean with her at lunch.
“Ma’am, China gave us no prior warning of this test, so I’d assume it is just part of the scheduled war game,” David said.
“And what do you suppose would be their war game objective for destroying one of our satellites?” Grayson asked, his tone skeptical.
“Actually, I may have a theory about that,” Morgan said, jumping into the fray. Grayson stiffened further. Even David looked a bit piqued at her intervention.
Susan nodded and rubbed her forehead. This woman has a theory about everything.
Morgan leaned forward. “This test could be another indicator that China’s war game has an offensive flavor to it. In most situations, nuclear-armed countries consider early warning assets for detecting nuclear attacks to be strictly off-limits to avoid increasing the risk of nuclear war. This is for the simple fact that our early warning satellites are the first layer of defense against a nuclear attack. Threatening such systems increases the risk of nuclear war. However, if the Chinese are exercising a decapitation strike as we were discussing earlier, they would definitely target these systems in order to prep the battlefield and gain the advantage.”
Susan rubbed her chin and turned to her right. “Bill, what do you think?”
“Ma’am, I’m inclined to agree with Dr. Shaw this time,” Grayson said with some hesitation. “With Constellation offline the past few months, we’re now more vulnerable to a surprise attack, especially from hypersonic missiles. Of course, we still have infrared and optical sensors installed on a tight network of satellites. They are located in three different orbits to detect and track the launch of ballistic missiles during their boost phase.”
Susan raised her eyebrow. “Boost phase?”
“Ma’am, that’s the critical moment in the missile’s trajectory that takes place immediately after lift-off,” Morgan said.
“During the boost phase, the missile travels at a slower speed, making it easier to track,” Grayson said, seizing control of the conversation. “The optical sensors capture the initial launch of the missile. Then the infrared sensors detect heat from the missile by picking up its booster plumes against the earth’s background. These infrared sensors track the missile as it follows its path. As soon as a launch is detected, the data from all of these sensors is sent to earth and collected by the relay ground stations. Then the data is transmitted to the ARC early warning system where it is analyzed along with data from other ground-based radar systems to determine whether a nuclear attack has been launched. If we’re under attack, ARC’s command and control feature would take over from there.”
Susan pressed her lips together and turned to her left. “David, you seem to disagree with Bill about the severity of the threat. How would you interpret China’s missile test?”
David gave her a polite smile before answering. “Actually, I may be slowly coming around to Grayson’s position. I hadn’t fully absorbed the implications of our earlier discussion in the Situation Room. Morgan’s theory about China’s forward deployment of submarines provides some troubling context for this test.”
Susan raised her eyebrow. She hadn’t expected David to add support for Bill’s points after their earlier friction. “How so?”
“Well, the concentration of our early warning capability into a small number of satellites in each orbit makes them lucrative targets,” David said. “Each orbit—the geosynchronous equatorial or
bit, the highly elliptical orbit, and the low earth orbit—plays a critical role in providing tactical warning of a nuclear attack. Our space-based early warning satellite system is designed to confirm that an attack is underway. From there, the ground and sea-based radar systems take over and detect specific signatures of the missiles and warheads and determine the nature of the attack, including its source, scale, and intended targets. That data is fed into ARC’s command and control system. Without this data, we’re essentially operating in the dark.”
Thoughtful answer.
Susan had always liked David as a person and wasn’t certain if she should replace him. He was one of the sharpest national security analysts she’d ever met. And surprisingly humble. Despite his education and prestigious career, David listened to everyone first before injecting his point of view. But Susan still wasn’t sure she could trust him as her National Security Advisor. Out of the corner of her eye, she noticed Grayson crossing his arms and frowning deeply.
Now what?
“Ma’am, we also need to consider the potential threat from hypersonic missiles, which as I said before, makes this satellite test more significant,” Grayson said. “Hypersonic missiles are maneuverable in flight, much like cruise missiles. They can navigate around our radar systems and evade other types of detection. Depending on the design and mission, they are capable of delivering conventional or nuclear weapons. They can travel undetected for certain periods, increasing the chance of a surprise attack. If our early warning satellites were to go dark, we wouldn’t be able to detect the launch of such systems. And since our radars can’t reliably pick them up, we might not know we’re under attack until we’re hit.”
“Ma’am, I think Morgan may be right,” David said with increased urgency. “With this test, the Chinese may have simulated an attack that damages our satellites in highly elliptical orbit to gain an advantage in a conflict with us.”
Susan nodded, ignoring a large vein pop in Grayson’s forehead. First, he’d appeared to be annoyed that David challenged his views. Now, he seemed frustrated that David was lending credence to them. This conflict was not at all like Grayson; it simply didn’t fit with what she knew about his character.
What is going on here?
“Ma’am, there’s something else interesting about the test,” Morgan said, giving her a half smile. “Satellites located in highly elliptical orbit have a long dwell time. That means they sit over one part of the earth for a long time.”
Susan returned her smile with a subtle nod. Morgan seemed to sense the growing friction between the two men and had intervened in part to reduce tension between them.
She’s rather perceptive.
“This type of orbit is advantageous for keeping an eye on ground targets in the northern latitudes,” Morgan said. “That makes this test an interesting coincidence. We believe the two missing submarines are located somewhere just north of Canada. If the Chinese were to take out one of our satellites in highly elliptical orbit, we wouldn’t be able to detect any ballistic missile launches from the northernmost part of the U.S., most of Russia, Scandinavia, Canada, and Alaska, which are all located in high latitudes. At least not in the boost phase.”
Susan’s eyes opened wider. “The two lost submarines…” She caught herself mumbling and closed her mouth. She hadn’t meant to utter the comment out loud, but everyone nodded and returned bleak looks. “We wouldn’t be able to detect launches of ballistic missiles from them,” she said, finishing her thought.
“They could launch a surprise attack, and we wouldn’t have any idea,” David said, nodding in agreement.
“That’s correct, ma’am,” Grayson said, taking control of the discussion once again. By now, his face had become a dark pink. “Not until they come into range of our early warning radars.”
Susan’s forehead creased. They’re both agreeing with him. Why is Grayson only getting angrier?
“But by that time, the decision-making window for retaliation is already closing fast,” Morgan added.
Susan’s mind drifted to the exact amount of time she had available to give the rescind order, and she shuddered.
Eight minutes and fifty-three seconds.
“Madam President, a single source of sensor data isn’t reliable,” Grayson said. “As a rule, we prefer to have confirmation of a nuclear attack from multiple data sources. This is to be absolutely certain there is no false alarm before launching our retaliatory attack and starting a nuclear war. That’s why our early warning system consists of multiple radars and satellites in different orbits and locations. Our two satellites in highly elliptical orbit play an incredibly essential role in providing dual confirmation.”
“If any of our satellites were to go offline for some reason, would the ARC system detect something like that?” Susan asked.
“Even better. I’d expect ARC to pick up advance signs of a looming attack against a satellite from its regular infusion of ISR data,” Grayson said, “to prevent us from getting caught flatfooted. But even if we didn’t get strategic warning of such an attack, the early warning component of ARC would immediately register the loss of a satellite. We’d know about it right away.”
I’d sure hope so.
Across the room, Susan saw Elise point at her watch. Susan furrowed her brow, trying to recall the next item on her schedule. She could have sworn there was enough time to finish the meeting, but Elise gave her another urgent look.
Susan cleared her throat. “Thank you all for your analysis. I’ll attempt to clarify the meaning of this test with Ambassador Chen at lunch today. Now, are there any other updates since our earlier meeting? Do we know who posted the tweets?” She glanced over at Grayson, giving him a hopeful look.
Grayson shook his head and started to stand up to leave. But David motioned with his hand to get Susan’s attention, and Grayson sat back down with a dark scowl on his face.
“Ma’am, Morgan and I spent an hour pulling the thread on the potential Russian connection,” he said. “She came up with an interesting theory.”
Susan raised her eyebrow and gazed at Morgan. “Another theory?”
Morgan squirmed in her seat, her ears turning light pink. “Uh, yes, ma’am. David and I found it hard to believe that the Russian government would use social media posts to escalate a conflict between us and China. That got us to thinking that there are a number of private citizens, specifically wealthy oligarchs with interests in the oil and natural gas industry, who might be willing to engage in some risky behavior on behalf of their government. Remember how much fuss the Russians made about the clean energy deal with China?”
What’s with all this “we” and “us”? Did David put her up to this?
“Oh, I remember, all right,” Susan said under her breath. “I had the Russian ambassador in my ear, making all sorts of threats if we proceeded down the path with China.”
“Ma’am, we talked to Mike Palmer just now,” David said. “He dug up names for two Russian oligarchs. They made the news headlines at the peak of your negotiations with various threats against the United States. Specifically, they threatened to launch cyberattacks against us if we went through with the deal.”
Susan frowned. “And you think they might have decided to hack China’s official communications outlet?”
“Ma’am, it’s just a possible theory at this point,” Morgan said, shifting her position on the couch. “I wouldn’t—”
“You said Mike dug up some names for us?” Susan asked, looking back at David, not hiding her impatience.
“Yes, ma’am. Igor Koslov and Viktor Pasternak.”
Susan furrowed her brow.
“If you like, I can have my Russia team run this down for you,” Grayson said quickly. “We can get you a dossier on both of them as soon as possible.”
“That would be great, Bill,” Susan said.
Across the room, Elise tapped her watch again. Susan rose from her chair, and the others followed suit.
“Put a rush
on it if you can,” Susan added to Grayson. “There’s no time to lose. I also want a full report on the missile test as soon as you have more details. I’ll need everything you’ve got before I hold my press briefing in about an hour. I expect to be fielding questions on the situation in Hong Kong and the autonomous weapons legislation. But now I’m sure someone will ask about the missile test.”
“Yes, ma’am,” Grayson said, moving toward the door.
Morgan and David followed closely behind him.
“One more thing,” Susan said, clearing her throat. They all turned around to face her, their faces expectant. She shot a stern look at Grayson and then at David and pointed at the both of them. “Whatever this is going on between the two of you, I want it to stop. The mission has to come first.” She paused for a moment to consider an idea that had just come to her. “Actually, why don’t you two go to lunch today and figure it out. I expect a resolution by the end of the day.”
The two men nodded grimly, their heads hanging a bit lower than before. Without another word, Grayson departed the Oval Office. Morgan and David ducked out of the room after him, the door closing behind them.
Turning to Elise, Susan asked, “Why the sudden rush? Did something happen to the schedule?”
Elise nodded briskly. “FBI Director Laski is here to see you. He has some new information about Morgan Shaw and said it couldn’t wait.”
26
Remittance
ARJUN
1030
A Ring, The Pentagon
Arlington, Virginia
Arjun took a big bite of a dark chocolate candy bar with caramel-covered peanuts as he strode down the hallway toward the elevator. After the chairman’s pre-brief, he’d gone down to the Pentagon’s main food court to grab a coffee and a snack in the hope of alleviating the pounding in his head. He was headed back to his cubicle in the J6 suite to carry out some last-minute test preparations for the ARC system.
Rescind Order Page 17