The involvement of Russian oligarchs meant that the plot had likely not ended with Nightfall. If there was more to come, Morgan would have to come clean with law enforcement authorities. Protecting her family members after the fact was one thing. But she wouldn’t allow herself or Luis to become accessories to any scheme that threatened U.S. national security. It was the main reason she’d taken the job at the White House—to keep an eye on her uncle and Harrison. To make sure they weren’t up to anything.
As she thought about her theory, that Anton and her mother might be involved in whatever was happening with China, Morgan shuddered.
For once, she would do anything to be proven wrong.
28
Centoreum Tech
ARJUN
1115
Main Food Court, The Pentagon
Arlington, Virginia
“Captain Dietz told me about the chairman’s pre-brief,” Mr. Warren said, pointing an angry finger in Arjun’s face. “You let Grace make a powerful argument against the ARC system. How many times have I told you not to let that happen?”
I didn’t “let” her do anything. Where was Captain Dietz? Oh yeah. He was sitting right next to her.
Arjun sat across from his boss in the main food court on the first floor of the Pentagon. The fifty-something billionaire CEO was dressed as if he’d just stepped out of a men’s fashion magazine with his stylish glasses, a colorful silk tie, and a bespoke midnight-blue, double-breasted suit. His boss’s attire was the main reason Arjun felt enormous pressure to dress for success. Mr. Warren was known for making critical comments on the appearance of his employees—something the CEO blamed on his fashion designer mother but spoke more to his extreme desire for perfection in all things.
Arjun just stared back at Mr. Warren as he continued to rail at him for his many shortcomings. There was no point to arguing with his notoriously ill-tempered boss. Arjun would let him calm down before saying anything—if he chose to say anything at all.
What was I supposed to do? Get up in a room full of high-level military officers and argue my case as a defense contractor? Without being invited to do so by a Pentagon official? Yeah, I don’t think so.
“How did Grace get that talking point into the read-ahead in the first place?” Mr. Warren asked, spit flying from his teeth.
I’m a systems engineer, not a babysitter. Grace is apparently much savvier than we thought.
“What am I paying you for?” he added.
Arjun looked down at his empty coffee cup and said nothing. He knew his boss couldn’t afford to fire him—definitely not moments before the monthly test of the ARC system. But that didn’t mean the CEO wouldn’t consider it at some point. He’d already threatened Arjun’s job several times in the heat of the moment.
Given his boss’s foul mood, Arjun suspected that Mr. Warren was mostly angry about President Tolley cancelling their lunch and was taking it out on him. During their long walk from the elevator to the cafeteria, Mr. Warren had railed against Tolley for her nerve and about how she owed him for everything. That meant the CEO would not be easily consoled no matter what Arjun said or did.
They sat in icy silence for a few minutes.
“Whatever happens, we can’t have ARC going nuclear during the test this afternoon,” Mr. Warren said, appearing to finally get a grip on his temper. “It would ruin everything we’ve worked so hard for. I sold the Pentagon leadership on the ARC system as a more reliable and predictable way to reinforce nuclear deterrence and reduce the chance of surprise attacks. ARC is supposed to be stabilizing. It’s not supposed to increase the risk of nuclear war.”
Wait a minute… nuclear war? Why would ARC go nuclear?
Arjun creased his forehead. “But we don’t know for sure how ARC will respond to today’s simulated scenario,” he said tentatively. “It’s possible that—”
Mr. Warren raised his hand to stop him mid-sentence “Look, I know exactly how ARC will respond to today’s simulated scenario, given recent geopolitical developments. Today’s test, it’s a conflict with China, right?”
Arjun nodded, pressing his lips together. The details of the simulation were classified, but Dietz must have told him about it.
“Then at some point during the simulated conflict, ARC may recommend increasing escalation with China, possibly even the use of nuclear weapons,” Mr. Warren said. “I need you to go back to your office right now and tweak the algorithms before the test. We need to rein ARC’s recommendations back into more expected parameters. Once the test is over, we can switch everything back.”
Rein it in?
Arjun furrowed his brow. “Sir, I don’t understand. You’ve had me downplay ARC’s recent recommendations as expected outcomes, occurring within acceptable parameters. Now you want me to bring the system back into line with a few tweaks?”
“There’s nothing to understand,” Mr. Warren said. “Today’s test is a critical moment for ARC, and the simulated data matters for ARC’s learning process for wartime operations. We don’t have any relevant data to predict how ARC will behave in a real crisis. That’s another reason why we need these monthly tests.”
Does the Pentagon leadership know anything about this?
Arjun frowned. “But I thought—”
“Yes, you thought the model of nuclear deterrence would serve as an obstacle to ARC’s learning process,” Mr. Warren said. “It doesn’t, and I made sure of it.”
What?
Arjun’s eyes widened. He opened his mouth to say something, but no words came out.
He’s been lying to me. This whole time.
Mr. Warren appeared to notice the stunned look on his face. “For the past few months, it was better you didn’t know the truth.”
“What don’t I know?” Arjun asked.
“In the final stages of the system’s development, I had my senior programmer tweak ARC to give it some more operating freedom from the Cold War’s model of nuclear deterrence,” Mr. Warren said. “I did so to ensure that ARC functions properly across a full spectrum of situations. However, I didn’t anticipate a precipitous decline in U.S.-China relations to occur right before our fifth monthly test when the system’s deep neural network remains somewhat in flux. We need about a year’s worth of simulated crisis data to fully ensure ARC’s effectiveness during a wartime scenario. When I heard about ARC’s recommendation to go to DEFCON 3, I realized where the system was heading.”
“And you need it to get back on course,” Arjun said.
“Yes.”
“But you’ve told the Pentagon that the ARC system will follow the rules of nuclear deterrence—whether we’re in a crisis or not. If that’s not how it works, shouldn’t we just explain all of this to Pentagon leadership and—”
Mr. Warren chopped the air with his hands. “Have you completely lost your mind?”
No, I’m finally coming to my senses.
“Wouldn’t it be better if they understood all the benefits and the risks of ARC?” Arjun asked. “It seems that the net impact is still a positive one.” He was pressing his luck by trying to convince his boss to listen, but he at least had to try. Otherwise, he wouldn’t be able to look his father in the eyes ever again.
Mr. Warren grimaced. “Do you know how long it took me to convince the Pentagon leadership to turn over any amount of control over nuclear weapons to a machine?” He paused for effect.
Arjun nodded quickly, not wanting to hear the speech again.
“It took years of persuading the general public with a multimillion-dollar ad campaign and then many more years of convincing policymakers and military leaders to do what’s good for them,” Mr. Warren said. “And now, finally, the ARC system is operational. Do you know what it would take for them to lose their confidence in ARC?”
Arjun shrugged even though he knew the answer. It was best to let his boss finish his rant without interruption.
“One fucking mistake,” Mr. Warren said, slamming his fist on the table. “That’s al
l it would take. Even the tiniest of errors would cause the Pentagon’s leadership to lose complete confidence in the system. A single case of ARC being incorrect would destroy the trust we’ve built over the past decade. We never hold humans to that high standard.”
“And you used the model of deterrence to build that trust,” Arjun said, trying to move his boss along. “As long as everyone thinks ARC operates according to an accepted set of rules, it makes everyone feel comfortable.”
Mr. Warren nodded. “Yes, we needed something to convince them to trust the system. Most of these folks continue to believe that nuclear deterrence will operate much as it did in the Cold War—despite rapidly changing technological and geopolitical circumstances. They don’t just believe it works, they need to believe it. If they didn’t believe it, they’d have to accept that nuclear weapons might actually increase the risk of nuclear war rather than prevent it.”
“You didn’t want ARC’s deep neural network to become too hemmed in to that old mindset,” Arjun said, understanding where his boss was going with his argumentation. “Otherwise it wouldn’t function properly in novel situations or unpredictable environments.”
“Exactly.” Mr. Warren smiled broadly. “So, I relaxed the rules around ARC’s interpretation of different actions and increased its freedom of maneuver.”
“Grace was right… all this time,” Arjun said, trying hard to suppress his disgust. “The ARC system interpreted China’s forward deployment of its nuclear-armed submarines as an offensive move. She explained that this proves the system doesn’t hold strictly to our accepted model of nuclear deterrence. She said it was possible that ARC has learned a new move to gain advantage over the other side.”
“Yes and no,” Mr. Warren said. “The tweaks to the algorithms account for ARC’s interpretation of China’s move as offensive. But the first rule still remains intact. As its first consideration, ARC is designed to optimize its ability to retaliate after a nuclear attack by an adversary.”
“That means if ARC has recommended an increase in the alert status to DEFCON 3, the system has determined that its most fundamental rule is threatened.”
Mr. Warren nodded. “Correct. An increase in our alert status reduces the vulnerability of our command and control system to a preemptive attack. ARC is protecting our ability to retaliate just as we trained it to do.”
“But doesn’t DEFCON 3 also increase our ability to conduct nuclear war if necessary?” Arjun asked. “Such a move could be misinterpreted by China and lead to unwanted escalation.”
“That’s why I’m asking you to tweak the algorithms. Just for today.”
Arjun shook his head. “Sir, I don’t think that’s a good idea, at least not without telling Pentagon leadership. If they defer their judgment to a machine without questioning it, their trust will be blind. Then what happens when ARC makes a mistake or oversteps its boundaries? They won’t detect the error or understand how it happened. And their ignorance and lack of critical thinking could lead to cascading human errors and potentially catastrophic results.”
Mr. Warren shook his head. “In the absence of automation, the risk of catastrophe caused by human mistakes has a far higher probability. Such a scenario would be of far greater consequence than any of ARC’s perceived shortcomings.”
“But there’s still some margin of error in ARC’s code,” Arjun said. “That means it’s possible for ARC to propose a bad recommendation or, worse, to sound a false alarm.”
“Let me ask you a question,” Mr. Warren said. Arjun glimpsed an uncanny glint in his boss’s eyes as they reflected the cafeteria lights from above. “If you knew with absolute certainty that a machine has superior skills to a human in performing all necessary functions, would you still want the human in control?”
Arjun jerked his head, surprised by the line of questioning from his boss. It took a moment for him to find his words. “Regardless of our fallibility, I believe humans should always have positive control over nuclear weapons. I don’t think we should delegate such decisions to a machine no matter how effective it is.”
“That’s why we have the rescind order,” Mr. Warren said. “The president essentially still holds the sole authority to launch nuclear weapons.” He gave Arjun a knowing smile. “Despite its small margin of error, ARC outperforms humans in analytics, accuracy, and speed. Humans simply can’t match a machine’s ability to process large volumes of information—the judgements of a machine are based on significantly more data than a human mind can handle. The ARC system can identify threats in a rapidly changing and complex environment, improve situational awareness, and reduce the chance for false alarms in a crisis.”
“But the ARC system still lacks common sense or human instincts,” Arjun said. “More than once, the gut instincts of courageous humans have saved us from accidental nuclear war. And as a machine, ARC has no skin in the game. It will blindly carry out the outcomes derived from its calculations.”
Mr. Warren furrowed his brow. “I’d choose computational models over human instincts any day. Once the Pentagon’s leadership believes that ARC is more effective than humans, they’ll have greater trust in the system and allow it to operate properly. In the meantime, we can’t afford any uncertainty. When you get back to the office, I want you to tweak the algorithms. Once the test is done, you’ll return things to the way they were.”
“But sir—”
“No buts. This is for their own good,” Mr. Warren said, pointing his finger toward the ceiling.
“What’s for our own good?” a male voice called out from behind Arjun.
Mr. Warren looked up, smiled warmly, and rose from his chair. “Isaiah, it’s so good to see you.”
Arjun craned his neck to see that the man greeting his boss was none other than General Isaiah Burke, the secretary of defense.
“Dennis, likewise,” Burke said. “I didn’t realize you were in the building today. You weren’t even going to stop by my office?” He didn’t hide his disappointment.
Mr. Warren cleared his throat. “Sorry. Just here for a quick conversation with my systems engineer. To make sure he’s all set for today’s big test.”
“Arjun Sharma, sir,” Arjun said, stepping forward to shake Burke’s hand. He gave direct eye contact and scrutinized the SecDef’s face.
Is he surprised to find Mr. Warren here? Or is it all a show for my benefit?
Burke squeezed hard and then clapped the CEO on the back. “I assume ARC will pass the test with flying colors, just like the last four months.”
Mr. Warren nodded.
“Good. Because I’m counting on it. By the way, my wife and I are looking forward to the annual Labor Day shindig at your place on the Chesapeake Bay,” Burke said, smiling broadly. “Say, do you think you could rustle up an invitation for Admiral Waller and his wife?”
“That old fart?” Mr. Warren said, frowning.
“I think it could go a long way in smoothing over any of the rough edges for the ARC system,” Burke said. “This will make him feel like he’s one of us. It might be useful to bring him into the fold—just in case the president tries to take the ARC system offline.”
“You think that’s a real possibility?” Mr. Warren asked.
“I do,” Burke said.
Arjun caught a stern look from Mr. Warren and took his cue to leave and carry out his boss’s demand. His chest tight, he turned around and headed back to the office, his father’s words about doing the right thing echoing in his mind.
29
The FBI Director
SUSAN
1050
Oval Office
The White House
Susan sat at the Resolute desk in the Oval Office with FBI Director Frank Laski standing next to her. Her body posture was stiff, and she was leaning awkwardly to one side, away from him. Despite a light woodsy cologne, she could detect his body odor, and it was an unpleasantly sour, musty smell. Every time he moved, she got a stronger whiff that made her want to gag.
She cringed at the thought of being left alone with Frank to discuss sensitive issues, especially pertaining to someone on her staff. Thankfully, Elise was still in the room, even if she was preoccupied with her tablet.
Susan wasn’t the only one who sometimes referred to him as Director Lackey instead of Laski behind his back. The man seemed to have no spine when it came to dealing with Harrison, and Susan suspected that Harrison had taken advantage on occasion. When the previous FBI director resigned one month into the Monroe administration, Harrison had selected Laski as the replacement over Susan’s strong objections. She expected more fortitude and objectivity from a director of the nation’s leading law enforcement agency.
Susan looked up to confirm Elise planned to join them, but her chief of staff pointed to her smartphone, shook her head, and ducked out of the Oval Office. Suppressing a sigh, Susan nodded at Frank to begin.
The director placed a file on her desk and flipped it open to the front page. Putting on her reading glasses, Susan swallowed hard as she anticipated the worst, but a lump remained stubbornly lodged in her throat. Her eyes widened when she saw the image on the first page.
The file was a dossier for a striking woman in her sixties with long, wavy blonde hair and piercing blue eyes. There was something strangely familiar about her. Then she noticed the woman’s name at the top of the sheet—Faye Shaw.
Rescind Order Page 19