by Ray Kurzweil
The first industrial revolution extended the reach of our bodies, and the second is extending the reach of our minds. As I mentioned, employment in factories and farms has gone from 60 percent to 6 percent in the United States in the past century. Over the next couple of decades, virtually all routine physical and mental work will be automated. Computation and communication will not involve discrete products such as handheld devices but will be a seamless web of intelligent resources that are all around us. Already most contemporary work is involved in the creation and promotion of IP in one form or another, as well as direct personal services from one person to another (health, fitness, education, and so on). These trends will continue with the creation of IP—including all of our artistic, social, and scientific creativity—and will be greatly enhanced by the expansion of our intellect through the merger with non-biological intelligence. Personal services will largely move to virtual-reality environments, especially when virtual reality begins to encompass all of the senses.
Decentralization. The next several decades will see a major trend toward decentralization. Today we have highly centralized and vulnerable energy plants and use ships and fuel lines to transport energy. The advent of nano-engineered fuel cells and solar power will enable energy resources to be massively distributed and integrated into our infrastructure. MNT manufacturing will be highly distributed using inexpensive nanofabrication minifactories. The ability to do nearly anything with anyone from anywhere in any virtual-reality environment will make obsolete the centralized technologies of office buildings and cities.
With version 3.0 bodies able to morph into different forms at will and our largely nonbiological brains no longer constrained to the limited architecture that biology has bestowed on us, the question of what is human will undergo intensive examination. Each transformation described here does not represent a sudden leap but rather a sequence of many small steps. Although the speed with which these steps are being taken is hastening, mainstream acceptance generally follows rapidly. Consider new reproductive technologies such as in vitro fertilization, which were controversial at first but quickly became widely used and accepted. On the other hand, change will always produce fundamentalist and Luddite counteractions, which will intensify as the pace of change increases. But despite apparent controversy, the overwhelming benefits to human health, wealth, expression, creativity, and knowledge quickly become apparent.
. . . on Play
Technology is a way of organizing the universe so that people don’t have to experience it.
—MAX FRISCH, HOMO FABER
Life is either a daring adventure or nothing.
—HELEN KELLER
Play is just another version of work and has an integral role in the human creation of knowledge in all of its forms. A child playing with dolls and blocks is acquiring knowledge essentially by creating it through his or her own experience. People playing with dance moves are engaged in a collaborative creative process (consider the kids on street corners in the nation’s poorest neighborhoods who created break dancing, which launched the hip-hop movement). Einstein put aside his work for the Swiss patent office and engaged in playful mind experiments, resulting in the creation of his enduring theories of special and general relativity. If war is the father of invention, then play is its mother.
Already there is no clear distinction between increasingly sophisticated video games and educational software. The Sims 2, a game released in September 2004, uses AI-based characters that have their own motivations and intentions. With no prepared scripts the characters behave in unpredictable ways, with the story line emerging out of their interactions. Although considered a game, it offers players insights into developing social awareness. Similarly games that simulate sports with increasingly realistic play impart skills and understanding.
By the 2020s, full-immersion virtual reality will be a vast playground of compelling environments and experiences. Initially VR will have certain benefits in terms of enabling communications with others in engaging ways over long distances and featuring a great variety of environments from which to choose. Although the environments will not be completely convincing at first, by the late 2020s they will be indistinguishable from real reality and will involve all of the senses, as well as neurological correlations of our emotions. As we enter the 2030s there won’t be clear distinctions between human and machine, between real and virtual reality, or between work and play.
. . . on the Intelligent Destiny of the Cosmos: Why We Are
Probably Alone in the Universe
The universe is not only queerer than we suppose, but queerer than we can suppose.
—J. B. S. HALDANE
What is the universe doing questioning itself via one of its smallest products?
—D. E. JENKINS, ANGLICAN THEOLOGIAN
What is the universe computing? As far as we can tell, it is not producing a single answer to a single question. . . . Instead the universe is computing itself. Powered by Standard Model software, the universe computes quantum fields, chemicals, bacteria, human beings, stars, and galaxies. As it computes, it maps out its own spacetime geometry to the ultimate precision allowed by the laws of physics. Computation is existence.
—SETH LLOYD AND Y. JACK NG62
Our naive view of the cosmos, dating back to pre-Copernican days, was that the Earth was at the center of the universe and human intelligence its greatest gift (next to God). The more informed recent view is that, even if the likelihood of a star’s having a planet with a technology-creating species is very low (for example, one in a million), there are so many stars (that is, billions of trillions of them), that there are bound to be many (billions or trillions) with advanced technology.
This is the view behind SETI—the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence—and is the common informed view today. However, there are reasons to doubt the “SETI assumption” that ETI is prevalent.
First, consider the common SETI view. Common interpretations of the Drake equation (see below) conclude that there are many (as in billions) of ETIs in the universe, thousands or millions in our galaxy. We have only examined a tiny portion of the haystack (the universe), so our failure to date to find the needle (an ETI signal) should not be considered discouraging. Our efforts to explore the haystack are scaling up.
The following diagram from Sky & Telescope illustrates the scope of the SETI project by plotting the capability of the varied scanning efforts against three major parameters: distance from Earth, frequency of transmission, and the fraction of the sky.63
The plot includes two future systems. The Allen Telescope Array, named after Microsoft cofounder Paul Allen, is based on using many small scanning dishes rather than one or a small number of large dishes, with thirty-two of the dishes scheduled to be online in 2005. When all of its 350 dishes are operational (projected in 2008), it will be equivalent to a 2½-acre dish (10,000 square meters). It will be capable of listening to up to 100 million frequency channels simultaneously, and able to cover the entire microwave spectrum. One of its intended tasks will be to scan millions of stars in our galaxy. The project relies on intelligent computation that can extract highly accurate signals from many low-cost dishes.64
Ohio State University is building the Omnidirectional Search System, which relies on intelligent computation to interpret signals from a large array of simple antennas. Using principles of interferometry (the study of how signals interfere with each other), a high-resolution image of the entire sky can be computed from the antenna data.65 Other projects are expanding the range of electromagnetic frequency, for example, to explore the infrared and optical ranges.66
There are six other parameters in addition to the three shown in the chart on the previous page—for example, polarization (the plane of the wavefront in relation to the direction of the electromagnetic waves). One of the conclusions we can draw from the above graph is that only very thin slices of this nine-dimensional “parameter space” have been explored by SETI. So, the reasoning
goes, we should not be surprised that we have not yet uncovered evidence of an ETI.
However, we are not just searching for a single needle. Based on the law of accelerating returns, once an ETI reaches primitive mechanical technologies, it is only a few centuries before it reaches the vast capabilities I’ve projected for the twenty-second century here on Earth. Russian astronomer N. S. Kardashev describes a “type II” civilization as one that has harnessed the power of its star for communication using electromagnetic radiation (about 4 × 1026 watts, based on our sun).67 According to my projections (see chapter 3), our civilization will reach that level by the twenty-second century. Given that the level of technological development of the many civilizations projected by many SETI theorists should be spread out over vast periods of time, there should be many greatly ahead of us. So there should be many type II civilizations. Indeed, there has been sufficient time for some of these civilizations to have colonized their galaxies and achieve Kardashev’s type III: a civilization that has harnessed the energy of its galaxy (about 4 × 1037 watts, based on our galaxy). Even a single advanced civilization should be emitting billions or trillions of “needles”—that is, transmissions representing a vast number of points in the SETI parameter space as artifacts and side effects of its myriad information processes. Even with the thin slices of the parameter space scanned by the SETI project to date, it would be hard to miss a type II civilization, let alone a type III. If we then factor in the expectation that there should be a vast number of these advanced civilizations, it is odd that we haven’t noticed them. That’s the Fermi Paradox.
The Drake Equation. The SETI search has been motivated in large part by astronomer Frank Drake’s 1961 equation for estimating the number of intelligent (or, more precisely, radio-transmitting) civilizations in our galaxy.68 (Presumably, the same analysis would pertain to other galaxies.) Consider the SETI assumption from the perspective of the Drake formula, which states:
The number of radio-transmitting civilizations = N × fp × ne × fl × fi × fc × fL
where:
N = the number of stars in the Milky Way galaxy. Current estimates are around 100 billion (1011).
fp = the fraction of stars that have orbiting planets. Current estimates range from about 20 percent to 50 percent.
ne: For each star with orbiting planets, what is the average number of planets capable of sustaining life? This factor is highly controversial. Some estimates are one or higher (that is, every star with planets has, on average, at least one planet that can sustain life) to much lower factors, such as one in one thousand or even less.
fl: For the planets capable of sustaining life, on what fraction of these does life actually evolve? Estimates are all over the map, from approximately 100 percent to about 0 percent.
fi: For each planet on which life evolves, what is the fraction on which intelligent life evolves? fl and fi are the most controversial factors in the Drake equation. Here again, estimates range from nearly 100 percent (that is, once life gets a foothold, intelligent life is sure to follow) to close to 0 percent (that is, intelligent life is very rare).
fc: For each planet with intelligent life, what is the fraction that communicates with radio waves? The estimates for fc tend to be higher than for fl and fi, based on the (sensible) reasoning that once you have an intelligent species, the discovery and use of radio communication is likely.
fL = the fraction of the universe’s life during which an average communicating civilization communicates with radio waves.69 If we take our civilization as an example, we have been communicating with radio transmissions for about one hundred years out of the roughly ten- to twenty-billion-year history of the universe, so fL for the Earth is about 10-8 so far. If we continue communicating with radio waves for, say, another nine hundred years, the factor would then be 10-7. This factor is affected by a number of considerations. If a civilization destroys itself because it is unable to handle the destructive power of technologies that may tend to develop along with radio communication (such as nuclear fusion or self-replicating nanotechnology), then radio transmissions would cease. We have seen civilizations on Earth (the Mayans, for example) suddenly end their organized societies and scientific pursuits (although preradio). On the other hand it seems unlikely that every civilization would end this way, so sudden destruction is likely to be only a modest factor in reducing the number of radio-capable civilizations.
A more salient issue is that of civilizations progressing from electromagnetic (that is, radio) transmissions to more capable means of communicating. Here on Earth we are rapidly moving from radio transmissions to wires, using cable and fiber optics for long-distance communication. So despite enormous increases in overall communication bandwidth, the amount of electromagnetic information sent into space from our planet has nevertheless remained fairly steady for the past decade. On the other hand we do have increasing means of wireless communication (for example, cell phones and new wireless Internet protocols, such as the emerging Wimax standard). Rather than use wires, communication may rely on exotic mediums such as gravity waves. However, even in this case, although the electromagnetic means of communication may no longer be the cutting edge of an ETI’s communication technology, it is likely to continue to be used for at least some applications (in any case, fL does take into consideration the possibility that a civilization would stop such transmissions).
It is clear that the Drake equation contains many imponderables. Many SETI advocates who have studied it carefully argue that it implies that there must be significant numbers of radio-transmitting civilizations in our galaxy alone. For example, if we assume that 50 percent of the stars have planets (fp = 0.5), that each of these stars has an average of two planets able to sustain life (ne = 2), that on half of these planets life has actually evolved (fl = 0.5), that half of these planets has evolved intelligent life (fi = 0.5), that half of these are radio-capable (fc = 0.5), and that the average radio-capable civilization has been broadcasting for one million years (fL = 10-4), the Drake equation tells us that there are 1,250,000 radio-capable civilizations in our galaxy. For example, the SETI Institute’s senior astronomer, Seth Shostak, estimates that there are between ten thousand and one million planets in the Milky Way containing a radio-broadcasting civilization.70 Carl Sagan estimated around a million in the galaxy, and Drake estimated around ten thousand.71
But the parameters above are arguably very high. If we make more conservative assumptions on the difficulty of evolving life—and intelligent life in particular—we get a very different outcome. If we assume that 50 percent of the stars have planets (fp = 0.5), that only one tenth of these stars have planets able to sustain life (ne = 0.1 based on the observation that life-supporting conditions are not that prevalent), that on 1 percent of these planets life has actually evolved (fl = 0.01 based on the difficulty of life starting on a planet), that 5 percent of these life-evolving planets have evolved intelligent life (fi = 0.05, based on the very long period of time this took on Earth), that half of these are radio-capable (fc = 0.5), and that the average radio-capable civilization has been broadcasting for ten thousand years (fL = 10-6), the Drake equation tells us that there is about one (1.25 to be exact) radio-capable civilization in the Milky Way. And we already know of one.
In the end, it is difficult to make a strong argument for or against ETI based on this equation. If the Drake formula tells us anything, it is the extreme uncertainty of our estimates. What we do know for now, however, is that the cosmos appears silent—that is, we’ve detected no convincing evidence of ETI transmissions. The assumption behind SETI is that life—and intelligent life—is so prevalent that there must be millions if not billions of radio-capable civilizations in the universe (or at least within our light sphere, which refers to radio-broadcasting civilizations that were sending out radio waves early enough to reach Earth by today). Not a single one of them, however, has made itself noticeable to our SETI efforts thus far. So let’s consider the basic SETI assumption
regarding the number of radio-capable civilizations from the perspective of the law of accelerating returns. As we have discussed, an evolutionary process inherently accelerates. Moreover, the evolution of technology is far faster than the relatively slow evolutionary process that gives rise to a technology-creating species in the first place. In our own case we went from a pre-electricity, computerless society that used horses as its fastest land-based transportation to the sophisticated computational and communications technologies we have today in only two hundred years. My projections show, as noted above, that within another century we will multiply our intelligence by trillions of trillions. So only three hundred years will have been necessary to take us from the early stirrings of primitive mechanical technologies to a vast expansion of our intelligence and ability to communicate. Thus, once a species creates electronics and sufficiently advanced technology to beam radio transmissions, it is only a matter of a modest number of centuries for it to vastly expand the powers of its intelligence.
The three centuries this will have taken on Earth is an extremely brief period of time on a cosmological scale, given that the age of the universe is estimated at thirteen to fourteen billion years.72 My model implies that once a civilization achieves our own level of radio transmission, it takes no more than a century—two at the most—to achieve a type II civilization. If we accept the underlying SETI assumption that there are many thousands if not millions of radio-capable civilizations in our galaxy—and therefore billions within our light sphere in the universe—these civilizations must exist in different stages over billions of years of development. Some would be behind us, and some would be ahead. It is not credible that every single one of the civilizations that are more advanced than us is going to be only a few decades ahead. Most of those that are ahead of us would be ahead by millions, if not billions, of years.