by Ray Kurzweil
66. In 2000 the Immune Tolerance Network (http://www.immunetolerance.org), a project of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Juvenile Diabetes Foundation, announced a multicenter clinical trial to assess the effectiveness of islet transplantation.
According to a clinical-trial research summary (James Shapiro, “Campath-1H and One-Year Temporary Sirolimus Maintenance Monotherapy in Clinical Islet Transplantation,” http://www.immunetolerance.org/public/clinical/islet/trials/shapiro2.html), “This therapy is not suitable for all patients with Type I diabetes, even if there were no limitation in islet supply, because of the potential long-term risks of cancer, life-threatening infections and drug side-effects related to the anti-rejection therapy. If tolerance [indefinite graft function without a need for long-term drugs to prevent rejection] could be achieved at minimal up-front risk, then islet transplant could be used safely earlier in the course of diabetes, and eventually in children at the time of diagnosis.”
67. “Lab Grown Steaks Nearing Menu,” http://www.newscientist.com/news/news. jsp?id=ns99993208, includes discussion of technical issues.
68. The halving time for feature sizes is five years in each dimension. See discussion in chapter 2.
69. An analysis by Robert A. Freitas Jr. indicates that replacing 10 percent of a person’s red blood cells with robotic respirocytes would enable holding one’s breath for about four hours, which is about 240 times longer than one minute (about the length of time feasible with all biological red blood cells). Since this increase derives from replacing only 10 percent of the red blood cells, the respirocytes are thousands of times more effective.
70. Nanotechnology is “thorough, inexpensive control of the structure of matter based on molecule-by-molecule control of products and byproducts; the products and processes of molecular manufacturing, including molecular machinery” (Eric Drexler and Chris Peterson, Unbounding the Future: The Nanotechnology Revolution [New York: William Morrow, 1991]). According to the authors:
Technology has been moving toward greater control of the structure of matter for millennia. . . . [P]ast advanced technologies—microwave tubes, lasers, superconductors, satellites, robots, and the like—have come trickling out of factories, at first with high price tags and narrow applications. Molecular manufacturing, though, will be more like computers: a flexible technology with a huge range of applications. And molecular manufacturing won’t come trickling out of conventional factories as computers did; it will replace factories and replace or upgrade their products. This is something new and basic, not just another twentieth-century gadget. It will arise out of twentieth-century trends in science, but it will break the trend-lines in technology, economics, and environmental affairs. [chap. 1]
Drexler and Peterson outline the possible scope of the effects of the revolution: efficient solar cells “as cheap as newspaper and as tough as asphalt,” molecular mechanisms that can kill cold viruses in six hours before biodegrading, immune machines that destroy malignant cells in the body at the push of a button, pocket supercomputers, the end of the use of fossil fuels, space travel, and restoration of lost species. Also see E. Drexler, Engines of Creation (New York: Anchor Books, 1986). The Foresight Institute has a useful list of nanotechnology FAQs (http://www.foresight.org/NanoRev/FIFAQ1.html) and other information. Other Web resources include the National Nanotechnology Initiative (http:// www.nano.gov), http://nanotechweb.org, Dr. Ralph Merkle’s nanotechnology page (http://www.zyvex.com/nano), and Nanotechnology, an online journal (http://www.iop.org/EJ/journal/0957-4484). Extensive material on nanotechnology can be found on the author’s Web site at http://www.kurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?m=18.
71. Richard P. Feynman, “There’s Plenty of Room at the Bottom,” American Physical Society annual meeting, Pasadena, California, 1959; transcript at http://www. zyvex.com/nanotech/feynman.html.
72. John von Neumann, Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata, A. W. Burks, ed. (Urbana: University of Illinois Press, 1966).
73. The most comprehensive survey of kinematic machine replication is Robert A. Freitas Jr. and Ralph C. Merkle, Kinematic Self-Replicating Machines (Georgetown, Tex.: Landes Bioscience, 2004), http://www.MolecularAssembler.com/KSRM.htm.
74. K. Eric Drexler, Engines of Creation, and K. Eric Drexler, Nanosystems: Molecular Machinery, Manufacturing, and Computation (New York: Wiley Interscience, 1992).
75. See the discussion of nanotube circuitry in chapter 3, including the analysis of the potential of nanotube circuitry in note 9 of that chapter.
76. K. Eric Drexler and Richard E. Smalley, “Nanotechnology: Drexler and Smalley Make the Case for and Against ‘Molecular Assemblers,’ ” Chemical and Engineering News, November 30, 2003, http://pubs.acs.org/cen/coverstory/8148/8148counter point.html.
77. Ralph C. Merkle, “A Proposed ‘Metabolism’ for a Hydrocarbon Assembler,” Nano-technology 8 (December 1997): 149–62, http://www.iop.org/EJ/abstract/0957-4484/8/4/001 or http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/hydroCarbonMetabolism.html. See also Ralph C. Merkle, “Binding Sites for Use in a Simple Assembler,” Nanotechnology 8 (1997): 23–28, http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/bindingSites.html; Ralph C. Merkle, “A New Family of Six Degree of Freedom Positional Devices,” Nanotechnology 8 (1997): 47–52, http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/6dof.html; Ralph C. Merkle, “Casing an Assembler,” Nanotechnology 10 (1999): 315–22, http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/casing; Robert A. Freitas Jr., “A Simple Tool for Positional Diamond Mechanosynthesis, and Its Method of Manufacture,” U.S. Provisional Patent Application No. 60/543,802, filed February 11, 2004, process described in lecture at http://www.MolecularAssembler.com/Papers/PathDiam MolMfg.htm; Ralph C. Merkle and Robert A. Freitas Jr., “Theoretical Analysis of a Carbon-Carbon Dimer Placement Tool for Diamond Mechanosynthesis,” Journal of Nanoscience and Nanotechnology 3 (August 2003): 319–24, http://www. rfreitas.com/Nano/JNNDimerTool.pdf; Robert A. Freitas Jr. and Ralph C. Merkle, “Merkle-Freitas Hydrocarbon Molecular Assembler,” in Kinematic Self-Replicating Machines, section 4.11.3 (Georgetown, Tex.: Landes Bioscience, 2004), pp. 130–35, http://www.MolecularAssembler.com/KSRM/4.11.3.htm.
78. Robert A. Freitas Jr., Nanomedicine, vol. 1, Basic Capabilities, section 6.3.4.5, “Chemoelectric Cells” (Georgetown, Tex.: Landes Bioscience, 1999), pp. 152–54, http://www.nanomedicine.com/NMI/6.3.4.5.htm; Robert A. Freitas Jr., Nano-medicine, vol. 1, Basic Capabilities, section 6.3.4.4, “Glucose Engines” (Georgetown, Tex.: Landes Bioscience, 1999), pp. 149–52, http://www.nanomedicine.com/NMI/6.3.4.4.htm; K. Eric Drexler, Nanosystems: Molecular Machinery, Manufacturing, and Computation, section 16.3.2,“Acoustic Power and Control” (New York: Wiley Interscience, 1992), pp. 472–76. See also Robert A. Freitas Jr. and Ralph C. Merkle, Kinematic Self-Replicating Machines, appendix B.4, “Acoustic Transducer for Power and Control” (Georgetown, Tex.: Landes Bioscience, 2004), pp. 225–33, http://www.MolecularAssembler.com/KSRM/AppB.4.htm.
79. The most comprehensive survey of these proposals may be found in Robert A. Freitas Jr. and Ralph C. Merkle, Kinematic Self-Replicating Machines, chapter 4, “Microscale and Molecular Kinematic Machine Replicators” (Georgetown, Tex.: Landes Bioscience, 2004), pp. 89–144, http://www.MolecularAssembler.com/KSRM/4.htm.
80. Drexler, Nanosystems, p. 441.
81. The most comprehensive survey of these proposals may be found in Robert A. Freitas Jr. and Ralph C. Merkle, Kinematic Self-Replicating Machines, chapter 4, “Microscale and Molecular Kinematic Machine Replicators” (Georgetown, Tex.: Landes Bioscience, 2004), pp. 89–144, http://www.MolecularAssembler.com/KSRM/4.htm.
82. T. R. Kelly, H. De Silva, and R. A. Silva, “Unidirectional Rotary Motion in a Molecular System,” Nature 401.6749 (September 9, 1999): 150–52.
83. Carlo Montemagno and George Bachand, “Constructing Nanomechanical Devices Powered by Biomolecular Motors,” Nanotechnology 10 (1999): 225–31; George D. Bachand and Carlo D. Montemagno, “Constructing Organic/Inorganic NEMS Devices Powered by Biomolecular Motors,” Biomedical Microdevices 2.3 (June 2000): 17
9–84.
84. N. Koumura et al., “Light-Driven Monodirectional Molecular Rotor,” Nature 401.6749 (September 9, 1999): 152–55.
85. Berkeley Lab, “A Conveyor Belt for the Nano-Age,” April 28, 2004, http:// www.lbl.gov/Science-Articles/Archive/MSD-conveyor-belt-for-nanoage.html.
86. “Study: Self-Replicating Nanomachines Feasible,” June 2, 2004, http://www.small times.com/document_display.cfm?section_id=53&document_id=8007, reporting on Tihamer Toth-Fejel, “Modeling Kinematic Cellular Automata,” April 30, 2004, http://www.niac.usra.edu/files/studies/final_report/pdf/883Toth-Fejel.pdf.
87. W. U. Dittmer, A. Reuter, and F. C. Simmel, “A DNA-Based Machine That Can Cyclically Bind and Release Thrombin,” Angewandte Chemie International Edition 43 (2004): 3550–53.
88. Shiping Liao and Nadrian C. Seeman, “Translation of DNA Signals into Polymer Assembly Instructions,” Science 306 (December 17, 2004): 2072–74, http:// www.sciencemag.org/cgi/reprint/306/5704/2072.pdf.
89. Scripps Research Institute, “Nano-origami,” February 11, 2004, http://www. eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2004-02/sri-n021004.php.
90. Jenny Hogan, “DNA Robot Takes Its First Steps,” May 6, 2004, http://www.new scientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99994958, reporting on Nadrian Seeman and William Sherman, “A Precisely Controlled DNA Biped Walking Device,” Nano Letters 4.7 (July 2004): 1203–7.
91. Helen Pearson, “Construction Bugs Find Tiny Work,” Nature News, July 11, 2003, http://www.nature.com/news/2003/030707/full/030707-9.html.
92. Richard E. Smalley, “Nanofallacies: Of Chemistry, Love and Nanobots,” Scientific American 285.3 (September 2001): 76–77; subscription required for this link: http://www.sciamdigital.com/browse.cfm?sequencenameCHAR=item2&method nameCHAR=resource_getitembrowse&interfacenameCHAR=browse.cfm&ISSU EID_CHAR=6A628AB3-17A5-4374-B100-3185A0CCC86&ARTICLEID_CHAR= F90C4210-C153-4B2F-83A1-28F2012B637&sc=I100322.
93. See the bibliography of references in notes 108 and 109 below. See also Drexler, Nanosystems, for his proposal. For sample confirmations, see Xiao Yan Chang, Martin Perry, James Peploski, Donald L. Thompson, and Lionel M. Raff, “Theoretical Studies of Hydrogen-Abstraction Reactions from Diamond and Diamond-like Surfaces,” Journal of Chemical Physics 99 (September 15, 1993): 4748–58. See also L. J. Lauhon and W. Ho, “Inducing and Observing the Abstraction of a Single Hydrogen Atom in Bimolecular Reaction with a Scanning Tunneling Microscope,” Journal of Physical Chemistry 105 (2000): 3987–92; G. Allis and K. Eric Drexler, “Design and Analysis of a Molecular Tool for Carbon Transfer in Mechanosynthesis,” Journal of Computational and Theoretical Nanoscience 2.1 (March–April 2005, in press).
94. Lea Winerman, “How to Grab an Atom,” Physical Review Focus, May 2, 2003, http://focus.aps.org/story/v11/st19, reporting on Noriaki Oyabu, “Mechanical Vertical Manipulation of Selected Single Atoms by Soft Nanoindentation Using a Near Contact Atomic Force Microscope,” Physical Review Letters 90.17 (May 2, 2003): 176102.
95. Robert A. Freitas Jr., “Technical Bibliography for Research on Positional Mechanosynthesis,” Foresight Institute Web site, December 16, 2003, http://foresight.org/stage2/mechsynthbib.html.
96. See equation and explanation on p. 3 of Ralph C. Merkle,“That’s Impossible! How Good Scientists Reach Bad Conclusions,” http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/impossible.html.
97. “Thus ΔXC is just ~5% of the typical atomic electron cloud diameter of ~0.3 nm, imposing only a modest additional constraint on the fabrication and stability of nanomechanical structures. (Even in most liquids at their boiling points, each molecule is free to move only ~0.07 nm from its average position.)” Robert A. Freitas Jr., Nanomedicine, vol. 1, Basic Capabilities, section 2.1, “Is Molecular Manufacturing Possible?” (Georgetown, Tex.: Landes Bioscience, 1999), p. 39, http://www.nanomedicine.com/NMI/2.1.htm#p9.
98. Robert A. Freitas Jr., Nanomedicine, vol. 1, Basic Capabilities, section 6.3.4.5, “Chemoelectric Cells” (Georgetown, Tex.: Landes Bioscience, 1999), pp. 152–54, http://www.nanomedicine.com/NMI/6.3.4.5.htm.
99. Montemagno and Bachand, “Constructing Nanomechanical Devices Powered by Biomolecular Motors.”
100. Open letter from Foresight chairman K. Eric Drexler to Nobel laureate Richard Smalley, http://www.foresight.org/NanoRev/Letter.html, and reprinted here: http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0560.html. The full story can be found at Ray Kurzweil, “The Drexler-Smalley Debate on Molecular Assembly,” http://www.KurzweilAI.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0604.html.
101. K. Eric Drexler and Richard E. Smalley, “Nanotechnology: Drexler and Smalley Make the Case for and Against ‘Molecular Assemblers,’” Chemical & Engineering News 81.48 (Dec. 1, 2003): 37–42, http://pubs.acs.org/cen/coverstory/8148/8148counterpoint.html.
102. A. Zaks and A. M. Klibanov, “Enzymatic Catalysis in Organic Media at 100 Degrees C,” Science 224.4654 (June 15, 1984): 1249–51.
103. Patrick Bailey, “Unraveling the Big Debate About Small Machines,” BetterHumans, August 16, 2004, http://www.betterhumans.com/Features/Reports/report.aspx?articleID=2004-08-16-1.
104. Charles B. Musgrave et al., “Theoretical Studies of a Hydrogen Abstraction Tool for Nanotechnology,” Nanotechnology 2 (October 1991): 187–95; Michael Page and Donald W. Brenner, “Hydrogen Abstraction from a Diamond Surface: Ab initio Quantum Chemical Study with Constrained Isobutane as a Model,” Journal of the American Chemical Society 113.9 (1991): 3270–74; Xiao Yan Chang, Martin Perry, James Peploski, Donald L. Thompson, and Lionel M. Raff, “Theoretical Studies of Hydrogen-Abstraction Reactions from Diamond and Diamond-like Surfaces,” Journal of Chemical Physics 99 (September 15, 1993): 4748–58; J. W. Lyding, K. Hess, G. C. Abeln, et al., “UHV-STM Nanofabrication and Hydrogen/Deuterium Desorption from Silicon Surfaces: Implications for CMOS Technology,” Applied Surface Science 132 (1998): 221; http://www.hersam-group.northwestern.edu/publications.html; E. T. Foley et al., “Cryogenic UHV-STM Study of Hydrogen and Deuterium Desorption from Silicon(100),” Physical Review Letters 80 (1998): 1336–39, http://prola.aps.org/abstract/PRL/v80/i6/p1336_1; L. J. Lauhon and W. Ho, “Inducing and Observing the Abstraction of a Single Hydrogen Atom in Bimolecular Reaction with a Scanning Tunneling Microscope,” Journal of Physical Chemistry 105 (2000): 3987–92.
105. Stephen P. Walch and Ralph C. Merkle, “Theoretical Studies of Diamond Mechanosynthesis Reactions,” Nanotechnology 9 (September 1998): 285–96; Fedor N. Dzegilenko, Deepak Srivastava, and Subhash Saini, “Simulations of Carbon Nano-tube Tip Assisted Mechano-Chemical Reactions on a Diamond Surface,” Nano-technology 9 (December 1998): 325–30; Ralph C. Merkle and Robert A. Freitas Jr., “Theoretical Analysis of a Carbon-Carbon Dimer Placement Tool for Diamond Mechanosynthesis,” Journal of Nanoscience and Nanotechnology 3 (August 2003): 319–24, http://www.rfreitas.com/Nano/DimerTool.htm; Jingping Peng, Robert A. Freitas Jr., and Ralph C. Merkle, “Theoretical Analysis of Diamond Mechano-Synthesis. Part I. Stability of C2 Mediated Growth of Nanocrystalline Diamond C(110) Surface,” Journal of Computational and Theoretical Nanoscience 1 (March 2004): 62–70, http://www.molecularassembler.com/JCTNPengMar04.pdf; David J. Mann, Jingping Peng, Robert A. Freitas Jr., and Ralph C. Merkle, “Theoretical Analysis of Diamond MechanoSynthesis. Part II. C2 Mediated Growth of Diamond C(110) Surface via Si/Ge-Triadamantane Dimer Placement Tools,” Journal of Computational and Theoretical Nanoscience 1 (March 2004), 71–80, http://www.molecularassembler.com/JCTNMannMar04.pdf.
106. The analysis of the hydrogen abstraction tool and carbon deposition tools has involved many people, including: Donald W. Brenner, Tahir Cagin, Richard J. Colton, K. Eric Drexler, Fedor N. Dzegilenko, Robert A. Freitas Jr., William A. Goddard III, J. A. Harrison, Charles B. Musgrave, Ralph C. Merkle, Michael Page, Jason K. Perry, Subhash Saini, O. A. Shenderova, Susan B. Sinnott, Deepak Srivastava, Stephen P. Walch, and Carter T. White.
107. Ralph C. Merkle, “A Proposed ‘Metabolism’ for a Hydrocarbon Assembler,” Nano-technology 8 (December 1997): 149–62, http://www.iop.org/EJ/ab
stract/0957-4484/8/4/001 or http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/hydroCarbonMetabolism.html.
108. A useful bibliography of references: Robert A. Freitas Jr., “Technical Bibliography for Research on Positional Mechanosynthesis,” Foresight Institute Web site, December 16, 2003, http://foresight.org/stage2/mechsynthbib.html; Wilson Ho and Hyojune Lee, “Single Bond Formation and Characterization with a Scanning Tunneling Microscope,” Science 286.5445 (November 26, 1999): 1719–22, http://www.physics.uci.edu/~wilsonho/stm-iets.html; K. Eric Drexler, Nanosystems, chapter 8; Ralph Merkle, “Proposed ‘Metabolism’ for a Hydrocarbon Assembler”; Musgrave et al., “Theoretical Studies of a Hydrogen Abstraction Tool for Nano-technology”; Michael Page and Donald W. Brenner, “Hydrogen Abstraction from a Diamond Surface: Ab initio Quantum Chemical Study with Constrained Isobutane as a Model,” Journal of the American Chemical Society 113.9 (1991): 3270–74; D. W. Brenner et al., “Simulated Engineering of Nanostructures,” Nanotechnology 7 (September 1996): 161–67, http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/nano4/brennerPaper.pdf; S. P. Walch, W. A. Goddard III, and Ralph Merkle, “Theoretical Studies of Reactions on Diamond Surfaces,” Fifth Foresight Conference on Molecular Nanotechnology, 1997, http://www.foresight.org/Conferences/MNT05/Abstracts/Walcabst.html; Stephen P. Walch and Ralph C. Merkle, “Theoretical Studies of Diamond Mechanosynthesis Reactions,” Nanotechnology 9 (September 1998): 285–96; Fedor N. Dzegilenko, Deepak Srivastava, and Subhash Saini, “Simulations of Carbon Nanotube Tip Assisted Mechano-Chemical Reactions on a Diamond Surface,” Nanotechnology 9 (December 1998): 325–30; J. W. Lyding et al., “UHVSTM Nanofabrication and Hydrogen/Deuterium Desorption from Silicon Surfaces: Implications for CMOS Technology,” Applied Surface Science 132 (1998): 221, http://www.hersam-group.northwestern.edu/publications.html; E. T. Foley et al., “Cryogenic UHV-STM Study of Hydrogen and Deuterium Desorption from Silicon(100),” Physical Review Letters 80 (1998): 1336–39, http://prola.aps.org/abstract/PRL/v80/i6/p1336_1; M. C. Hersam, G. C. Abeln, and J. W. Lyding, “An Approach for Efficiently Locating and Electrically Contacting Nanostructures Fabricated via UHV-STM Lithography on Si(100),” Microelectronic Engineering 47 (1999): 235–37; L. J. Lauhon and W. Ho, “Inducing and Observing the Abstraction of a Single Hydrogen Atom in Bimolecular Reaction with a Scanning Tunneling Microscope,” Journal of Physical Chemistry 105 (2000): 3987–92, http://www.physics.uci.edu/~wilsonho/stm-iets.html.