by Ted Koppel
NOTES
All quotes attributed in the text but not cited below derive from personal interviews.
PART I: A CYBERATTACK
CHAPTER 1: Warfare 2.0
“all 2.1 million current federal employees”: David E. Sanger and Julie Hirschfeld Davis, New York Times “Data Breach Tied to China Hit Millions,” June 5, 2015
“could disrupt air traffic control operations”: Government Accountability Office, Information Security: FAA Needs to Address Weaknesses in Air Traffic Control Systems, GAO-15-221, March 2, 2015, 13.
And the United States, in collaboration with Israel: David Sanger, Confront and Conceal: Obama’s Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power (New York: Random House, 2012).
Iran wasted little time: Based on conversations with U.S. military intelligence sources who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Russia, China, and Iran, among others: Ibid., and also from conversations with George R. Cotter, former chief scientist for the National Security Agency.
the British market research company YouGov: “Poll Results: Barack Obama Birth,” YouGov/Economist, February 12, 2014.
And in 2013 the Pew Research Center: “Climate Change and Financial Instability Seen as Top Global Threats,” Pew Research Center, June 24, 2013.
One year later, another Pew Research Center survey: Seth Motel, “Polls show most Americans believe in climate change, but give it low priority,” Pew Research Center, September 23, 2014.
the Internet is also giving rise to “filter bubbles”: Eli Pariser, The Filter Bubble: What the Internet Is Hiding From You (New York: Penguin Press, 2011).
sent a confidential letter, not previously released: A congressional source provided a copy of the letter.
CHAPTER 2: AK-47s and EMPs
“This wasn’t an incident where Billy-Bob”: Rebecca Smith, “Assault on California Power Station Raises Alarm on Potential for Terrorism,” Wall Street Journal, February 5, 2014.
In a conversation almost two years: I encountered considerable reluctance within the electric power industry to discuss vulnerabilities of the grid. When one senior executive from a major power company did finally agree to talk, he would do so only on the condition that neither his name nor that of his company be used. Additional industry viewpoints were reflected in a conversation with two executives from Edison Electric Institute.
In early April 2015, the Pentagon: “U.S. Aerospace Command Moving Comms Gear Back to Cold War Bunker,” Yahoo News, April 7, 2015.
Admiral William Gortney, who in December 2014 took command: Gortney provided this EMP explanation at a Pentagon news briefing on April 7, 2015.
The commission’s report, available online: Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack, April 2008, available at www.empcommission.org.
who warned of the growing threat of an EMP attack: James Woolsey and Peter Vincent Pry, “The Growing Threat From an EMP Attack,” Wall Street Journal, August 12, 2014.
CHAPTER 3: Regulation Gridlock
One hot summer afternoon in August 2003: J. R. Minkel, “The 2003 Northeast Blackout—Five Years Later,” Scientific American, August 13, 2008.
A U.S.-Canadian task force: U.S.-Canada Power System Outage Task Force, Final Report on the August 14, 2003 Blackout in the United States and Canada: Causes and Recommendations, April 2004.
The U.S.-Canadian task force recommended the implementation: U.S.-Canada Power System Outage Task Force, Final Report on the Implementation of the Task Force Recommendations—Natural Resources Canada, U.S. Department of Energy, September 2006, 46.
The grid has been operating according to reliability standards since: To help me navigate the arcane world of grid reliability standards and the evolving relationship between NERC, representing the power industry, and FERC, which represents the federal government in its dealings with the industry, I engaged the services of Ryan Ellis. Dr. Ellis is a postdoctoral fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard’s Kennedy School. I sent transcripts of key interviews and rough drafts of relevant chapters to Dr. Ellis for his review and comments. In his defense, let me say that I did not always follow his advice.
NERC has an enforcement capacity as well: The figures are pulled from an investigation by USA Today and 10 other Gannett newspapers and television stations across the country into the security of the power grid. Steve Reilly, “Bracing for a Big Power Grid Attack: ‘One Is Too Many,’ ” USA Today, March 24, 2015.
CHAPTER 4: Attack Surfaces
“So it’s winter,” said Clarke: I conducted two lengthy interviews with Richard A. Clarke and am further indebted to Clarke for his excellent book Cyber War: The Next Threat to National Security and What to Do About It, which he coauthored with Robert Knake. It remains, as it was when first published in 2010, a first-rate and eminently readable primer on the subject and was invaluable in introducing this reporter to the subject.
“also secretly recorded what normal operations at the nuclear plant”: William J. Broad, John Markoff, and David E. Sanger, “Israeli Test on Worm Called Crucial in Iran Nuclear Delay,” New York Times, January 15, 2011. David Sanger deserves a separate endnote, in that his reporting on cybersecurity issues for the New York Times has been consistently excellent. He has been particularly generous in sharing his expertise and some of his sources with me.
When Thomas Eric Duncan, infected with the Ebola virus: Kevin Sack, “Downfall for Hospital Where Ebola Spread,” New York Times, October 15, 2014.
Whenever Homeland Security or the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has hired: This and the remainder of the information in this paragraph were provided by Richard Clarke.
The problem with air-gapping: Memo from Dr. Ryan Ellis to the author.
CHAPTER 5: Guardians of the Grid
Indeed, in 2013 President Obama issued an executive order: White House Office of the Press Secretary, “Executive Order—Improving Critical Infrastructure Cybersecurity,” February 12, 2013.
Among the experts I’ve consulted who now provide advice on cybersecurity: Tom Ridge and Michael Chertoff are former secretaries of homeland security, Richard Clarke and Howard Schmidt were White House advisors on cybersecurity, Major General Brett Williams was director of operations at Cyber Command, and General Keith Alexander was director of the NSA.
CHAPTER 6: What Are the Odds?
Leon Panetta told an audience of security executives: Panetta delivered his remarks to members of the Business Executives for National Security aboard the Intrepid Sea, Air and Space Museum in New York, October 10, 2012.
Quoted in a comprehensive Washington Post article: May 31, 2015 by Craig Timberg.
some parliamentarians in Germany: Chris Miller, “Germany–U.S. Spy Scandal: Typewriters & Intelligence,” Cicero Magazine, July 18, 2014.
According to one military cyber specialist: Several military cyber specialists who are still on active service spoke with me on the condition that neither their identity nor their rank or branch of service would be revealed.
A glance at one of those digital attack maps online: Just typing “DDoS” into any search engine will provide several visual representations of a digital attack.
Ajit Jain is the CEO of the Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group: When I approached Warren Buffett to discuss the subject of insuring against cyberattacks, he recommended talking to Ajit Jain.
CHAPTER 7: Preparing the Battlefield
writing for Wired magazine: James Bamford, “The NSA Is Building the Country’s Biggest Spy Center (Watch What You Say),” Wired, March 13, 2012.
the New York Times reported that a Russian crime ring: Nicole Perlroth and David Gelles, “Russian Hackers Amass Over a Billion Internet Passwords,” New York Times, August 5, 2014.
ten American financial institutions were revealed: Matthew Goldstein, Nicole Perlroth, and David E. Sanger, “Hackers’ Attack Cracked 10 Financial Firms in Major Assault,” New York Time
s, October 3, 2014.
Only days later, reports surfaced that Russian hackers had exploited: Mark Scott, “Russian Hackers Used Bug in Microsoft Windows for Spying, Report Says,” New York Times, October 14, 2014.
A U.S. security firm, Crowdstrike, spent much of 2014: Nicole Perlroth, “Report Says Cyberattacks Originated Inside Iran,” New York Times, December 2, 2014.
“Iranian hackers are trying to identify computer systems”: Frederick W. Kagan and Tommy Stiansen, “The Growing Cyberthreat from Iran: The Initial Report of Project Pistachio Harvest,” American Enterprise Institute Critical Threats Project and Norse Corporation, April 2015.
described the handicap as being denied “home field advantage”: Michael Hayden, “American Intelligence and the ‘High Noon’ Scenario,” Wall Street Journal, October 30, 2013.
CHAPTER 8: Independent Actors
The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal ran lengthy investigations: Michael Cieply and Brooks Barnes, “Sony Cyberattack, First a Nuisance, Swiftly Grew Into a Firestorm,” New York Times, December 30, 2014; Ben Fritz, Danny Yadron, and Erich Schwartzel, “Behind the Scenes at Sony as Hacking Crisis Unfolded,” Wall Street Journal, December 30, 2014.
the total number of Internet protocol addresses in North Korea: Nicole Perlroth and David E. Sanger, “North Korea Loses Its Link to the Internet,” New York Times, December 23, 2014.
they turned out to be “largely symbolic”: David E. Sanger and Michael S. Schmidt, “More Sanctions on North Korea After Sony Case,” New York Times, January 2, 2015.
North Korea has artillery in abundance: Erik Sofge, “Can North Korea Really ‘Flatten’ Seoul?” Popular Mechanics, November 24, 2010.
“to close a chapter from the first age of mass destruction”: Kim Zetter, Countdown to Zero Day (New York: Crown, 2014), 375.
PART II: A NATION UNPREPARED
CHAPTER 9: Step Up, Step Down
The Department of Energy reports: This Department of Energy paper simultaneously claims that there may be as many as tens of thousands of large power transformers, while acknowledging that since the industry won’t reveal the exact numbers, it has to speculate on the precise number. The claim that the United States has a larger base of installed LPTs than any other country is on page vi of the report. Infrastructure Security and Energy Restoration Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability, U.S. Department of Energy, Large Power Transformers and the U.S. Electric Grid, April 2014.
“Should several of these units fail at the same time”: Ibid., 1.
“Because LPTs are very expensive”: Ibid., 5.
ran slightly more than thirteen minutes: My interview with Secretary Johnson was taped and the section in question was timed.
Executives from the Edison Electric Institute: As mentioned elsewhere in the book, Edison is the association for shareholder-owned electric companies, which comprise the majority of the industry.
CHAPTER 11: State of Emergency
There were reports in the wake of Hurricane Katrina: Kevin Johnson, “Katrina Made Police Choose Between Duty and Loved Ones,” USA Today, February 21, 2006.
the financial cost of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq: Amy Belasco, “The Cost of Iraq: Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11,” Congressional Research Service, December 8, 2014.
The Transportation Security Administration: “The Transportation Security Administration and the Aviation-Security Fee,” House Budget Committee Publications, December 10, 2013.
CHAPTER 12: Press Six If You’ve Been Affected by a Disaster
One Red Cross website lists: “Ways to Donate,” American Red Cross, www.redcross.org.
journalists from Pro Publica and National Public Radio: Justin Elliott, Jesse Eisinger, and Laura Sullivan (NPR), “The Red Cross’ Secret Disaster,” ProPublica and NPR, October 29, 2014.
Not surprisingly, the article drew an immediate and angry response: Laura Howe, “American Red Cross Responds to Inaccuracies in ProPublica and NPR Stories,” American Red Cross Blog, RedCrossChat.org, October 29, 2014.
PART III: SURVIVING THE AFTERMATH
CHAPTER 13: The Ark Builders
Where details are provided, they stagger the imagination: Genesis 5:32–10:1.
Rashi, the eleventh-century French rabbi: Judith Frishman and Lucas Van Rompay, The Book of Genesis in Jewish and Oriental Christian Interpretation (Lovanii: Peeters, 1997), 62–65.
National Geographic channel broadcast a docudrama: American Blackout, directed by Jonathan Rudd (National Geographic, 2013), DVD.
The show’s first program of its second season: “Series Premiere of ‘Doomsday Preppers’ Launches National Geographic to Its Highest-Rated Tuesday Night Telecast Ever,” The Futon Critic, February 9, 2012.
CHAPTER 14: Some Men Are an Island
That little nugget was tucked away: Liz Moyer, “For Sale: Renovated Luxury Condo; Can Survive Nuclear Attack,” Wall Street Journal, November 9, 2014.
“What is it, a thousand miles?”: According to www.distance-cities.com, it is 837 miles by car. Presumably the distance by bicycle would be similar, although you might want to steer clear of major highways.
Not all members of the family are convinced: One of their grown daughters, Craig explained, has an aversion to guns and would not bring her family to the retreat in an emergency.
CHAPTER 15: Where the Buffalo Roamed
Not only would he and his ranch hands survive a cyberattack: As noted, Bob Model is in his early seventies. When I asked whether he took any prescription medicines and how he would maintain that supply, Bob conceded that this was a problem he had not considered.
The theme of Bowling Alone: Robert D. Putnam, Bowling Alone (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2000).
The website for the Wyoming Tribune Eagle: The list can be found at www.wyomingnews.com/clubs-and-orgs.
statistics from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) tell a different story: The CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics compiles its database from death certificates filed in each state and based on reports from attending physicians, medical examiners, and coroners.
this is a place that has never been put to the test: Unless, of course, you count the 10,700 Japanese Americans who were interned at the Heart Mountain Relocation Center during World War II. It’s an option for accommodating large numbers of urban refugees, but not an appealing one.
CHAPTER 16: The Mormons
I would be receiving a call from Henry Eyring: The three top leaders of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints occupy what is known as the First Presidency. Thomas S. Monson is the president; Henry B. Eyring holds the post of First Counselor, putting him next in line.
Joseph Smith’s translation of the Book of Mormon: To the extent that these next three chapters recount Mormon history or belief system, they do so almost exclusively through the prism of the church itself. Richard Turley, assistant church historian, gave generously of his time in helping me understand some of the underlying events that shaped the Church’s emphasis on disaster preparation.
“If you are without bread, how much wisdom can you boast”: Brigham Young, Journal of Discourses, 8:68.
CHAPTER 17: State of Deseret
“Have you ever paused to realize”: Ezra Taft Benson, “Prepare for the Days of Tribulation,” Council of the Twelve, October 1980.
and then the Second Quorum of the Seventy: For all the church’s strict hierarchy, there seems at times to be an almost whimsical bent toward titles and designations that may bewilder outsiders: “bishops” at all levels of the church hierarchy; “elders,” most of whom are under twenty-five; and “quorums” that may or may not have their numerically designated membership. While the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles does, indeed, have twelve members, the Quorums of Seventy are less constrained by their labels. At Church headquarters in Salt Lake City, the First Quorum of the Seventy is, I was told, currently made up of 314 members.
In a 2007 article for Mother Jones: Stephan
ie Mencimer, “Mormons to the Rescue,” Mother Jones, December 28, 2007.
CHAPTER 18: Constructive Ambiguity
It has taken the church a long time: “On September 11, 1857, a band of Mormon militia, under a flag of truce, lured unarmed members of a party of emigrants from their fortified encampment and, with the Paiute allies, killed them. More than 120 men, women and children perished in the slaughter.” From the flyleaf of Massacre at Mountain Meadows, by Ronald W. Walker, Richard E. Turley Jr., and Glen M. Leonard (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008). For many years, the Mormon Church denied any culpability in the massacre. What’s significant about this book is that Richard Turley, one of the coauthors, is assistant church historian, while Glen Leonard is former director of church history and art. The book, in other words, was sanctioned by the church.
CHAPTER 19: Solutions
“proposed a government-industry cyber war council”: Carter Dougherty, “Banks Dreading Computer Hacks Call Cyber War Council,” Bloomberg, July 8, 2014.
That was certainly the thrust: Conor Friedersdorf, “Keith Alexander’s Unethical Get-Rich-Quick Plan,” Atlantic, July 31, 2014.
who in 2012 cofounded Patriot Solutions: The Patriot Solutions website describes the Colorado Springs–based company as focusing on energy security, engineering services, procurement, and logistics.
“Not wittingly”: In an interview with NBC’s Andrea Mitchell, he said that “I responded in what I thought was the most truthful, or least untruthful manner, by saying no,” though he also called his answer “too cute by half.” He indicated that his response to Wyden turned on a definition of “collect:” “There are honest differences on the semantics of what—when someone says ‘collection’ to me, that has a specific meaning, which may have a different meaning to him.”