by Brad Carlson
“Wow, that’s quite a complement, coming from Dostum himself.”
“Yeah, it was, and Lion fully recognized it. Anyway, he’s been stationed with the SAS throughout the region, including Turkey and Greece for the last several years. I’ve never been to either one and Lion’s picked up the intel side of this business exceptionally well. I’m really curious what all he might know of what’s going on in Turkey.”
Mossad Headquarters, Tel Aviv, Israel
8:00 AM Local Time
“Arielle, Stonewall, please come in,” Tamir Pardo called out to both of them as he saw them through the open door to his office. “Sorry to hear of what happened up at Incirlik yesterday. Please extend my condolences to the families of those who were killed, as well as to Secretaries Johnson and Axelsson. I wish we could have been more help for you. We have heard a few things out of Turkey but we knew nothing of this ahead of time. I’m terribly sorry about what happened. However, I understand that you and Arielle need a flight up to Incirlik right away. Jim called me probably shortly after he spoke with you, sometime around 2:30 this morning, wasn’t it?”
“It was something like that, General.”
“We’ll get you up there right away. I’ve told the flight crew to be ready to take off as soon as you can get to the base.”
“Thank you, General, I will pass on your condolences. I’m assuming you have some contacts that Dani and I can meet up with up there. I have a friend at Akrotiri that will be flying in this noon but the more intel we can get the better. We had suspected that ISIS was making inroads into Turkey but never anything like this.”
“Yes, I have someone in Adana that should be able to help you out, a couple, actually: Yosef Dagan and Noa Katz. I’m not sure if you know them, Arielle.”
“No, I don’t.”
“Stonewall, I think you probably know that up until the past few years, Turkey has been a very good friend of Israel’s. When we took out Syria’s nuclear reactor at Deir az-Zawr, we actually flew over Turkish air space for close to two hundred miles, all with their permission as we flew very close to both Incirlik and Batman air bases. Turkey has continued to share a fair amount of intel with us, as well—especially when it concerns Al Qaeda, the Khorasan group and now ISIS.”
“Yosef and Noa have been in Adana for several years monitoring the situation in southern Turkey,” Tamir continued. “Adana is the fourth largest city in Turkey and boasts one of the largest mosques in the world so we try to keep an eye open for anything that might be developing up there. They’ll meet you both for lunch at a local café, Ozsut Café on Ziyapasa Boulevard. Sorry, but I didn’t know of your arrangements with your friend. It’s right next to a Starbucks if you’re homesick. However, the café is right on the corner with outside seating. They haven’t told me of anything urgent that might be in the works, but they aren’t exactly members of the mosque, either.”
“Tamir, this is excellent. Can you get word to Yosef and Noa that we might be a little late?”
“Not a problem my friend. The flight time is less than an hour so you’ll be there mid-morning. I’ve told the crew to stick around for no more than a couple days so if your little recon mission takes longer than that, Arielle, let me know.”
“Will do, Tamir, thanks so much for this. Operations as per usual, I assume.”
“That is correct.”
“General, this is awesome. I can’t thank you enough.”
Tel Nof Airbase, Israel
9:30 Local Time
“So if the flight time to Incirlik is just under an hour, that’ll put us there around 10:30,” Jackson said to Dani as they boarded the Gulfstream G IV.
“And Lion said he’d fly in around the noon hour, right?” Dani continued with Jackson’s line of thinking. “That’ll give us a chance to meet up with both Cadonau and Todd and get an idea from them as to what their sense of the area is. Do you want to simply meet up with Lion on base or take him to meet up with Yosef & Noa? Personally, I’d like to keep him separate from them. I don’t know what security is like but I don’t want to take any unnecessary chances with them.”
“Agreed,” Jackson added. “In the off chance we get followed I don’t want to jeopardize either of them and blow their cover. Say, I haven’t had a chance to ask Tamir this yet, but have you heard on how things are going in southern Lebanon? The IDF’s been in there for more than a month now,” Jackson continued.
“From what I understand, things are going pretty good. Beirut’s always a nasty business but southern Lebanon is pretty much cleared out. I can actually see us annexing the area south of Sidon to Mt Hermon, much the same way we have treated the Golan Heights,” she replied. “This area used to be Asher and Naphtali in the ancient kingdom, so it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if we hang on to this territory.”
“Really? Is there much sense in Israel today to try and restore everything from the Old Testament kingdom?”
“There is a significant minority of us that would like to see the ancient kingdom restored.”
“Of us?” Jackson asked.
“Definitely. You know of my interest in our history and that I’d love to see the Temple rebuilt. Historically, the tribes of Asher and Naphtali settled up there so I’d like to see us keep it. Actually, there’s three tribes that still claim their lineage back to the ancient Kingdom: Benjamin, Judah, and Levi. With your government’s action in both Iraq and now Iran, we finally have the opportunity to solidify our borders. Syria no longer presents the same issue they have in the past: they’re in the middle of a nasty civil war, the Russians are gone, plus, ISIS continues to be a huge issue for them. With all this going on, there’s no one to keep us from hanging on to it, so yeah, I’d like to see us keep it, much as we have the Golan.”
“Just how much of the ancient kingdom are you talking about? If I remember correctly, didn’t Solomon’s kingdom extend clear up to the Euphrates? That would include large swaths of both Syria and Jordan.”
“That’s correct, both David and Solomon extended the kingdom up to the Euphrates and it included all of the Sinai as well.”
“You realize, that would redraw the entire map of the Middle East?” Jackson asked. “I mean Jordan would have something to say about that, as would the Saudis.”
“Like that hasn’t been done before?” Dani replied, clearly on a roll. “Ever hear of Sykes & Picot? You know, the British and French foreign ministers who literally carved up the Middle East after World War I? You see, if Israel is ever going to have secure borders, we need to expand. You realize that if you do not consider the West Bank as part of Israel, the narrowest point of the country is only nine miles wide. Think about that—nine miles wide! How secure can any country be when there is a section of the country that is that narrow? What other country has an issue like that? Even Belgium, for all the trouble they had with Germany in the two world wars, is larger than this.”
“I hear ya. I just never realized you were this passionate about reviving the ancient kingdom.”
“Don’t get me wrong. I’m not an ardent imperialist, or Zionist—I despise that term, by the way—I just want what every other citizen wants for their own country—security.”
“And reviving David’s kingdom would do that?”
“Most definitely.”
“What about Hezbollah?” Jackson asked.
“What about ‘em?” Dani replied. “You’ve taken out Iran, Russia’s been unceremoniously kicked out of the region, and Syria’s a mess. At this point, they’re pretty much irrelevant.”
“You don’t see Hezbollah joining up with ISIS?”
“No way,” Dani replied. “Hezbollah literally got all of its weapons from Iran, via Syria. Now that Iran is out of the picture, Syria is their only remaining ally, and you can bet at the very least, Russia will be stepping in to replace Iran as their primary weapons supplier. Also, remember, up until now anyway, the Palestinians have maintained a geographic focus—meaning they want to push all of us Israelis into t
he sea. ISIS is a very fundamentalist Islamic organization focused almost entirely on their very radical interpretation of the Koran and the expansion of their caliphate, and Palestine plays a very small, almost insignificant, part of this.”
“Well, I hope you’re right. Hezbollah and ISIS getting together would be a disaster.”
“Again, I don’t see that happening. Russia stepping in to replace Iran is the bigger issue. However, on the subject of disasters, do you really still have nukes up at Incirlik?” Dani asked.
“Yeah, I think we do. The Air Force doesn’t base a single plane at the base but it remains the largest weapons storage area for all of the US Air Force in Europe. We’ve had nukes there for years and it makes no sense. Personally, I think it’s gotten to be more of a political deal than anything. I mean, we have several bases throughout Europe where we have active squadrons and the base facilities to store these things: Lakenheath in England, Spangdahlem in Germany and Aviano in Italy, just to name three bases where we could house them—and the planes are right there. At Incirlik, should something really hit the fan, planes from one of these bases in Europe would have to land there, refuel, load up and then proceed to their target. From a logistical standpoint, it’s pretty absurd. The only thing that makes sense is the politics of it all, if playing politics with nukes can be said to make sense in the first place. I’m guessing that the US administration, after the 2016 coup attempt in Turkey, chose to leave ‘em there as a token of support for the Turkish president. Pretty stupid if you ask me.”
“I’d have to agree with you on that point,” agreed Dani. “I know all of these have a PAL,” that is a Permissive Action Link which is designed to prevent unauthorized arming and detonation of a nuclear weapon, “but depending on the type of PAL—early versions were simply designed for safety, not security—if the wrong bomb with an earlier PAL fell into the wrong hands, the threat level increases dramatically. Weapons with an earlier version, and by that I mean one even from the 1980’s, stand an even chance of being reverse engineered. Admittedly, the PAL makes it so someone can’t make immediate use of the weapon, but, in the right hands, reverse engineering one of these things wouldn’t be that difficult at all.”
“Said the nuclear engineer,” Jackson added.
“Well it wouldn’t be. Think about it: when you were growing up, did you ever take anything apart and then have to put it back together again?”
“Oh, yeah, many times. I think I told you I grew up in San Angelo, Texas. Our family actually had a cattle ranch out there along with quite a few acres of farm land. When our equipment broke down out in the field, there was no one to call for help—you had to fix it yourself.”
“That’s what I mean. If one of these nukes falls into the wrong hands, how soon do you think it would take a North Korean nuclear engineer to get his hands on the thing? He’d be looking at it tomorrow and have it figured out the next day. Keeping these things at Incirlik is just insane.”
“Dani, you’re preaching to the choir.”
XX
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
11:00 AM Local Time
“Eric,” Crown Prince ibn Saud started out, “last night you said something about an arms agreement similar to what you offered the Qataris, only cheaper.”
“That’s correct, Your Royal Highness. We offered them seventy-two F-15s for something like $12 billion. Several years ago, you purchased eighty-four of the jets that were a part of a $24 billion package. How would you feel if we offered you another seventy-two of the jets, for two-thirds the cost? It would essentially be the same deal that we offered the Qataris for only $8 billion instead. Plus, you’d have the most up to date version of the Eagles—we don’t even have this advanced version in our inventory.”
“That is an amazing deal, Mr. Secretary. However, how long are you asking us to flood the market?”
“To be honest, we haven’t worked out all of the details on this as yet,” Secretary Johnson replied.
“So, just what is your ultimate objective with this?” the prince asked. “It would seem that you have already hit them pretty hard.”
“Your Royal Highness, we bankrupted their economy once under President Reagan. We are out to do the same thing once again,” Secretary Axelsson replied.
“I see. And, if I recall correctly, that action led to the downfall of the Soviet Union. Are you looking for regime change once again?”
“I wouldn’t say that, more like ‘behavior modification’,” Axelsson replied.
“I think I understand, but that doesn’t answer my initial question—just how long do you anticipate it will take to achieve the necessary ‘modification’? At the price you indicated last night, you are quite right, we will still make a profit. However, we’d be losing millions of dollars every day in potential profits.”
“I’d like to see if this is something we can look at on a quarterly basis,” Secretary Johnson replied. “If we started now and then reviewed this at the first of the year, and then sometime in April, that would be very much appreciated.”
“You are looking for some ‘modification’ aren’t you? And what about the rest of OPEC and the Gulf Cooperation Council? I realize we are the largest producer, but there are others that, if combined, could pose a serious check on this plan or yours.”
“We are aware of that, and as soon as we’re finished here, we’ll be heading to Abu Dhabi to discuss this with the rest of the Council. We’ve invited Iran to this meeting as well as we want to get President Ali Bagheri involved in this as well. We are very much aware that lowering the cost of oil could seriously impede his recovery plans for Iran and we want to keep him in the loop for this overall strategy of ours as well. We’re already helping the Iranians rebuild and we’ll be meeting with Dr. Bagheri separately to offer him an additional aid package to compensate Iran for their lost profits. If everyone on the Gulf goes along with this, that’ll represent two thirds of the world’s oil production that’ll be dumped on the world market. That should make a statement,” Secretary Johnson concluded.
Incirlik Air Force Base
10:45 AM Local Time
“Colonel Cadonau, Colonel Tom Jackson and this is a friend of mine, Lieutenant Colonel Danielle Yaniv,” Jackson said, introducing themselves to the Incirlik base commander.
“Nice to meet both of you. Lieutenant Colonel Gretchen Todd, here, is in charge of security for both Incirlik and Izmir.”
“How’s the arm?” Jackson asked, seeing the colonel’s arm in a sling.
“It’s fine. I hate this thing,” Todd replied indicating the sling. “That bullet did more damage than I thought but I’ll be fine in a couple weeks.”
“You have quite the job, Colonel,” Dani mentioned, addressing Todd.
“No doubt, and it’s getting tougher by the minute. The head of the Turkish National Police advised us yesterday morning that something might be in the works. We weren’t given any specifics and I don’t think the afternoon’s attack is what he had in mind—it was too soon and the Secretaries’ visit was completely unscheduled—we had a twenty minute notice that they were coming in.”
“Yeah, we heard it was a surprise visit,” Stonewall interjected. “Did he give you any idea as to why they think something is in the works?”
“Again, nothing specific, but they apparently have a few cells under surveillance and they know that a lot of the demonstrations throughout the south and east are provoked by Daesh and not the Kurds. He simply said that they are expecting something more in line with what happened on Monday at Eskisehir. It sounds like they’re almost expecting some more attacks in central or western Turkey, like Izmir or even Istanbul.”
“Did he have any idea who was behind the attack on the Turkish air force command staff?”
“He didn’t say, and I don’t think they have any idea. Daesh usually takes responsibility for attacks like that but I can’t see it being the Kurds. That just doesn’t make sense. I think they’re a little embarrassed that something l
ike this could happen on one of their air force bases,” Todd added.
“That doesn’t surprise me. So, I suppose you don’t have any idea as to who was behind the attack here?” Jackson asked, referring to the attack at Incirlik.
“Not at this point. No one’s taken responsibility for it, either—which is more than a little unusual if it was Daesh—and the three men involved in the attack were Turks, not Kurds. Two of them came from Gaziantep and one from Malatya—pretty much central Turkey. Based on that, we’re still thinking Daesh. However, even though this is a NATO base, the Turks have jurisdiction and are leading the investigation, even though this was a direct attack on American officials. The FBI is sending a team over and they should be here late this afternoon or early evening. I’m not sure just how much cooperation they’ll get from the Turks. No reason to suspect they’ll do anything to hinder the investigation but General Van seems to be a little more on edge than I’d have thought he’d be. Van’s the Turkish commander of the base.”