56. Sanders, Our Revolution, 47.
57. Ibid., 52, 54.
58. Ben Jacobs, “Martin O’Malley, Tommy Carcetti and 2016,” The Daily Beast, April 9, 2013, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/05/09/martin-o-malley-tommy-carcetti-and-2016.html.
59. Patrick Caldwell, “Jim Webb Wants to Be President. Too Bad He’s Awful on Climate Change,” Mother Jones, December 22, 2014, http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/12/jim-webb-climate-change.
60. Jim Webb, Remarks at National Press Club, Washington, DC, September 23, 2014, http://www.jameswebb.com/news/jim-webb-to-speak-at-national-press-club-luncheon-sept-23-watch-live.
61. Nick Gass and Daniel Strauss, “Jim Webb Drops Out of Democratic Race,” Politico, October 20, 2016, http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/webb-dropping-out-214952.
62. Chris Cillizza, “How Hillary Clinton Turned a Losing 2008 Campaign into a Winning 2016 One,” Washington Post, June 7, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/06/07/5-reasons-hillary-clinton-went-from-a-loser-in-2008-to-a-winner-in-2016/.
63. John Podesta, email, May 14, 2015, https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/10290.
64. Stephen Ollemacher and Hope Yen, “Big Nomination Lead for Clinton: Pocketing ‘Superdelegates,’ ” Associated Press, November 13, 2015, https://www.yahoo.com/news/clinton-early-commanding-delegate-lead-nomination-120111050.html.
65. Ceaser, Busch, and Pitney, Epic Journey, 111.
66. Emma Margolin, “Hillary Clinton: ‘Yes, Black Lives Matter,’ ” MSNBC, July 23, 2015, http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/hillary-clinton-yes-black-lives-matter.
67. Patrick Healy and Amy Chozick, “Hillary Clinton Relying on Southern Primaries to Fend Off Rivals,” New York Times, September 5, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/06/us/politics/hillary-clinton-relying-on-southern-primaries-to-fend-off-rivals.html.
68. Melissa Yeager and Libby Watson, “Behind the Clinton Campaign: Mapping the Pro-Hillary Super PACs,” Sunlight Foundation, December 1, 2015, http://sunlightfoundation.com/2015/12/01/super-pacs-dark-money-and-the-hillary-clinton-campaign-part-1.
69. Libby Watson and Melissa Yeager, “Behind the Clinton Campaign: Dark Money Allies,” Sunlight Foundation, December 3, 2015, https://sunlightfoundation.com/blog/2015/12/03/behind-the-clinton-campaign-dark-money-allies/.
70. Lee Fang and Andrew Perez, “Hacked Emails Prove Coordination Between Clinton Campaign and Super PACs,” The Intercept, October 18, 2016, https://theintercept.com/2016/10/18/hillary-superpac-coordination.
71. Rosalind S. Helderman, Tom Hamburger and Steven Rich, “Clintons’ Foundation Has Raised Nearly $2 Billion—and Some Key Questions,” Washington Post, February 18, 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/clintons-raised-nearly-2-billion-for-foundation-since-2001/2015/02/18/b8425d88-a7cd-11e4-a7c2-03d37af98440_story.html.
72. James V. Grimaldi and Rebecca Ballhaus, “Hillary Clinton’s Complex Corporate Ties,” Wall Street Journal, February 19, 2015, http://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-clintons-complex-corporate-ties-1424403002.
73. Michael S. Schmidt, “Hillary Clinton Used Personal Email Account at State Dept., Possibly Breaking Rules,” New York Times, March 2, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/03/us/politics/hillary-clintons-use-of-private-email-at-state-department-raises-flags.htm.
74. Glenn Thrush and Gabriel Debenedetti, “Clinton: I Used Private Email Account for ‘Convenience,’ ” Politico, March 10, 2015, http://www.politico.com/story/2015/03/hillary-clinton-email-press-conference-115947.
75. Maureen Dowd, “With the Clintons, Only the Shadow Knows,” New York Times, March 7, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/08/opinion/sunday/maureen-dowd-only-the-shadow-knows.html.
76. Brent Budowsky, “Why Bernie Sanders Excites Students and Young Voters,” The Hill, June 12, 2015, http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/presidential-campaign/244826-why-bernie-sanders-excites-students-and-young-voters.
77. Sanders, Our Revolution, 19–20.
78. Bernie Sanders, Remarks at National Press Club, March 9, 2015, http://www.press.org/sites/default/files/20150309_sanders.pdf.
79. Sanders, Our Revolution, 99.
80. Andrew Tyndale, “Campaign 2016 Coverage: Annual Totals for 2015,” The Tyndale Report, December 21, 2015, https://web.archive.org/web/20160315160523/ http://tyndallreport.com/comment/20/5773/.
81. Rebecca Ballhaus, “Hillary Clinton Raised $28 Million in 3rd Quarter, Edging Bernie Sanders,” Wall Street Journal, September 30, 2015, http://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-clinton-raised-28-million-in-3rd-quarter-edging-bernie-sanders-1443665690.
82. Alexandra Jaffe, “58 members of Congress skipped Netanyahu’s speech,” CNN, March 3, 2015, http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/26/politics/democrats-missing-netanyahu-whip-list/.
83. Blake Hounshell, “Clinton Aides Struck Israel from Early Stump Speech,” Politico, October 17, 2016, http://www.politico.com/live-blog-updates/2016/10/john-podesta-hillary-clinton-emails-wikileaks-000011postid00000157-d599-ddff-a1d7-f7b947a40000.
84. Lauren Carroll, “Hillary Clinton flip-flops on Trans-Pacific Partnership,” Politi-Fact, October 8, 2015, http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/oct/08/hillary-clinton/hillary-clinton-now-opposes-trans-pacific-partners.
85. Nikki Budzinski and John Podesta, emails, August 20, 2015, https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/2039.
86. Evan Halper, “Democrats Cheer Keystone Pipeline Setback, But It Could Hurt Them in Presidential Race,” Los Angeles Times, November 3, 2015, http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/la-keystone-pipeline-swing-states-20151103-story.html.
87. CNN, transcript of Democratic debate, Las Vegas, October 13, 2015, http://cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.com/2015/10/13/cnn-democratic-debate-full-transcript/.
88. Jeet Heer, “Bernie Should’ve Attacked Hillary’s ‘Damn Emails,’ ” New Republic, May 26, 2016, https://newrepublic.com/article/133741/bernie-shouldve-attacked-hillarys-damn-emails.
89. Transcript of Democratic debate, Des Moines, Iowa, November 14, 2015, http://www.cbsnews.com/news/democratic-debate-transcript-clinton-sanders-omalley-in-iowa/.
90. James Downie, “Hillary Clinton’s Unbelievable Defense of Wall Street Contributions,” Washington Post, November 15, 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2015/11/15/hillary-clintons-unbelievable-defense-of-wall-st-contributions/?utm_term.31e2d01503e6.
91. Hunter Walker, “Clinton Campaign Tries to Move Beyond Debate 9/11 Comment,” Yahoo News, November 15, 2015, https://www.yahoo.com/news/clinton-campaign-tries-to-move-beyond-debate-911-220736819.html.
92. Aaron Bycoffe, “The Endorsement Primary,” FiveThirtyEight, June 7, 2016, http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/.
93. Sanders, Our Revolution, 109.
94. “Iowa Entrance Polls,” New York Times, February 1, 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/02/01/us/elections/iowa-democrat-poll.html.
95. Nate Cohn, “Why a ‘Virtual Tie’ in Iowa Is Better for Clinton Than Sanders,” New York Times, February 2, 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/02/upshot/how-the-virtual-tie-in-iowa-helps-hillary-clinton.html.
96. Transcript of Democratic debate, Durham, New Hampshire, Washington Post, February 4, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/04/sanders-clinton-debate-transcript-annotating-what-they-say.
97. “New Hampshire Exit Polls,” New York Times, February 9, 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/02/09/us/elections/new-hampshire-democrat-poll.html.
98. Nate Cohn, “No, the Polling Doesn’t Prove Bernie Sanders Won the Hispanic Vote in Nevada,” New York Times, February 21, 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/22/upshot/why-clinton-not-sanders-probably-won-the-hispanic-vote-in-nevada.html.
99. Patrick Healy and Yamiche Alcindor, “Early Missteps Seen as a Drag on Bernie Sanders’s Campaign,” New York Times, April 3, 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/04/us/politics/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton.html.
100. Ceaser, Busch, and Pitney, Epic Journey, 94
.
101. Nate Silver, “Clinton Is Following Obama’s Path to The Nomination,” FiveThirty-Eight, March 16, 2016, http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-is-following-obamas-path-to-the-nomination.
102. Robby Mook, “To Hillary Clinton Supporters: The Facts on Where the Race Stands,” Medium, April 4, 2016, https://medium.com/hillary-for-america/to-hillary-clinton-supporters-the-facts-on-where-the-race-stands-87bf70654fbc.ydalsqehm.
103. Evan Halper and Matt Pearce, “Sanders’ Supporters Are Lashing Out, But Here’s How They Might Be Hurting His Campaign,” Los Angeles Times, April 15, 2016, http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/la-na-bernie-sanders-supporters-20160415-story.html.
104. Alan Rappeport, “From Bernie Sanders Supporters, Death Threats Over Delegates,” New York Times, May 16, 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/17/us/politics/bernie-sanders-supporters-nevada.html.
105. Donna Brazile, email, March 3, 2016, https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/38478.
106. Frank Newport and Andrew Dugan, “Clinton Still Has More Negatives Among Dems Than Sanders,” Gallup, June 6, 2016, http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/192362/clinton-negatives-among-dems-sanders.aspx.
107. Sanders, Our Revolution, 181.
108. Mark Lilla, “The End of Identity Liberalism,” New York Times, November 18, 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/20/opinion/sunday/the-end-of-identity-liberalism.html.
109. Dan Balz, “Bill Clinton: Once Again in the Spotlight, But Before a Different Party,” Washington Post, July 26 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/bill-clinton-once-again-in-the-spotlight-but-before-a-different-party/2016/07/26/82837bd8-534c-11e6-b7de-dfe509430c39_story.html.
Chapter Three
Trumped
The Republican Nomination Contest
When Republicans surveyed the landscape after the 2014 midterm elections, they had many reasons to be hopeful. They had just added a Senate majority to the House majority they won in 2010 and had added considerable strength at the state level. Indeed, they had more seats in the House and more strength in state governments than at any time since the 1920s. As they looked ahead to 2016, they noted that their probable opponent, Hillary Clinton, had a number of serious deficiencies as a candidate, and would face the difficulty of trying to win for her party a third consecutive term in the White House, a feat accomplished only one time in five tries by a non-incumbent since 1960. (Another try for a third consecutive party term, by incumbent Gerald R. Ford in 1976, also ended in failure.) They could also be pleased that the field of probable contenders for the Republican presidential nomination was deep and talented, partly the consequence of the decimation inflicted by Republicans on congressional and state Democrats during the Obama years.
They could not know it at the time, but the deep Republican bench would prove to be more curse than blessing for the regular Republican Party, an ironic demonstration of the adage “too much of a good thing.” When a brash celebrity businessman with a knack for getting in the news staked out a position with an unshakable core of support, the field never thinned quickly enough to allow anyone else to break out of the scrum. That candidate, Donald J. Trump, was on no one’s radar screen in November 2014. By May 2016 he was the presumptive Republican nominee for president.
In this improbable story, to reach that position Trump had to fight his way through as many as sixteen opponents, many of whom were skilled and respected political figures—and all of whom had more experience in the political arena than did Trump. These contenders could be put into a number of categories:
The governors (and former governors): These candidates were or had been the chief executives of states across the country. They included former governor Jeb Bush of Florida and sitting governors Scott Walker of Wisconsin, Chris Christie of New Jersey, John Kasich of Ohio, and Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, who left office in January 2016. Bush, the son and brother of former U.S. presidents, was anointed by many as the front-runner in the race. Jindal was a wunderkind, having served as a member of Congress, an assistant secretary of Health and Human Services, and a two-term governor by the age of forty-five. Walker and Christie each had won election and reelection in states that had not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since the 1980s; Walker had also won a tough recall vote and plaudits from conservatives for waging a fight against Wisconsin’s public sector unions. Before becoming the popular two-term governor of always-crucial Ohio, Kasich had served nine terms in the House of Representatives, where he helped usher in the balanced budgets of the late 1990s as chairman of the House Budget Committee. Former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore and three-term former New York governor George Pataki, first elected in 1994, rounded out the governors, but they were among the darkest of the dark horses.
The senators: A number of senators also offered themselves for the presidency, including Tea Party favorites Ted Cruz of Texas, Rand Paul of Kentucky, and Marco Rubio of Florida. Rubio and Paul had been elected in 2010, Cruz in 2012. Each had carved out a niche: Cruz was the hard-liner who promoted a government shutdown in October 2013 in a bid to defund Obamacare; Paul angled for the libertarian constituency cultivated by his father, former Republican congressman and libertarian presidential candidate Ron Paul; and Rubio sounded the alarm against a weak Obama foreign policy while signing on to an ill-fated immigration reform bill in 2013. Another candidate from the Senate, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, was a close ally of Senator John McCain.
The also-rans: Three aspirants in earlier Republican nomination races appeared again, hoping that their second time would be the charm. Rick Perry had been the longest-serving governor in Texas history, and he was making a second run at the White House after a failed bid four years earlier. Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum also returned from a 2012 campaign in which he proved to be Mitt Romney’s toughest competitor. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee had run a strong race in 2008. Both Huckabee and Santorum had won the Iowa caucuses in their years and hoped to repeat the feat.
The outsiders: In a year of great dissatisfaction with politics as usual, three outsiders sought to make a mark. Former Hewlett-Packard executive Carly Fiorina was the only woman in the field and the least outside of the outsiders, having been the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate from California in 2010 and serving as fundraising chair for the Republican National Committee and an advisor to John McCain in 2008. Noted neurosurgeon Ben Carson, subject of the television drama Gifted Hands, hoped to capture the evangelical vote and to gain traction in an environment in which health care was an ongoing issue. Though a senator, Ted Cruz was a foe of the GOP establishment and would run a campaign drawing heavily on outsider themes. Finally, there was Trump himself.
Self-proclaimed billionaire Donald Trump (his actual wealth is hotly debated) had been a major name in the American cultural milieu for thirty years as a real estate mogul, author of the best-selling book The Art of the Deal, and host of the reality television shows The Apprentice and The Celebrity Apprentice, in which his role was to train and evaluate budding business associates—and to growl “You’re fired!” several times a season. He had no political experience, but he did build a chain of luxury hotels and golf courses, a line of men’s clothing, and several casinos, including some with strip clubs. A loud and colorful personality from New York City, Trump had periodically toyed with the idea of running for president since 1988. However, “The Donald,” as he was sometimes known, had shown no long-term attachment to either the Republican Party or conservative principles. He had been loudly pro-choice on abortion, changed his party registration at least five times in his lifetime, had contributed to liberal Democrats including Hillary Clinton and Senator Chuck Schumer, and had called for the impeachment of President George W. Bush. He was thrice married, had boasted of his affairs with married women, and had been frequently enmeshed in lawsuits and bankruptcies related to his business dealings. His forays into politics, such as they were, had been unconventional. Most recently, in 2011, Trump had announced that
he was financing a search for President Obama’s African birth, an endorsement of “birtherism” that he would not set aside until September 2016. If his candidacy had been a turn of the wheel at one of his casinos, almost no one would have taken the bet. Indeed, Las Vegas odds of Trump winning the GOP nomination were rated 15–1 in August 2015; another firm gave him 100–1 odds of going all the way to the White House.1
Republican insiders thought of the candidates in different categories—filling “lanes” that pitted contestants for particular constituencies against each other until, by elimination, one would remain in each lane to fight it out for the ultimate victory. In this thinking, an “establishment” lane was led by Jeb Bush, who would compete against Lindsey Graham, John Kasich, and even Marco Rubio. The fact that Rubio, a Tea Party favorite in 2010 who defeated establishment candidate Charlie Crist in the GOP primary, was placed in the “establishment” lane was partly a testament to how mainstream the Tea Party had become. The Tea Party itself supposedly had a lane, shorn of Rubio, consisting of Ted Cruz and Rand Paul. A “social conservative” lane featured Ben Carson, Rick Santorum, and Mike Huckabee. And so on. Eventually, the concept of lanes would be reduced in the minds of both analysts and campaign strategists to just two: Trump and not Trump, with the remainder of candidates fighting among themselves to become the main opponent to Trump.
It is worth taking a moment to consider the contenders who ended up vying most seriously for the “not Trump” championship. Each had considerable strengths. They also turned out to have weaknesses, including a common incapacity to consolidate the “not Trump” lane. Bush began as the frontrunner, with high name recognition, a successful record as governor of Florida from 1999 to 2007, an ideological positioning as a moderate conservative, and an impressive national network of donors and organizers inherited from his father and brother. This inheritance, however, was a large part of his undoing, as he was clearly identified with a Republican establishment that was out of favor with too much of the party’s base. More generally, he was a dynastic scion, brother of a president who had left office with a 34 percent approval rating. He was the ultimate insider in an outsider’s year and sometimes seemed to exude a sense of entitlement, or at least indifference. “I might have to lose the primary to win the general election,” he once mused, though no one who loses the primary makes it to the general election. Though he began with a lead, he also suffered from high negatives.
Defying the Odds Page 11