Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know

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Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know Page 26

by Adam Grant


  “You’re actually rooting for the clothes”: Seinfeld, season 6, episode 12, “The Label Maker,” January 19, 1995, NBC.

  A fun but arbitrary ritual: Tim Kundro and Adam M. Grant, “Bad Blood on the Diamond: Highlighting the Arbitrariness of Acrimony Can Reduce Animosity toward Rivals” (working paper, 2020).

  counterfactual thinking involves: Kai Epstude and Neal J. Roese, “The Functional Theory of Counterfactual Thinking,” Personality and Social Psychology Review 12 (2008): 168–92.

  many stereotypes match up: Lee Jussim et al., “The Unbearable Accuracy of Stereotypes,” in Handbook of Prejudice, Stereotyping, and Discrimination, ed. Todd D. Nelson (New York: Psychology Press, 2009).

  stereotypes become consistently and increasingly inaccurate: Lee Jussim, Jarret T. Crawford, and Rachel S. Rubinstein, “Stereotype (In)accuracy in Perceptions of Groups and Individuals,” Current Directions in Psychological Science 24 (2015): 490–97.

  “if you’re a Virgo in China”: Jackson G. Lu et al., “Disentangling Stereotypes from Social Reality: Astrological Stereotypes and Discrimination in China,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (2020), psycnet.apa.org/record/2020-19028-001.

  our beliefs are cultural truisms: Gregory R. Maio and James M. Olson, “Values as Truisms: Evidence and Implications,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 74 (1998): 294–311.

  there are more similarities: Paul H. P. Hanel, Gregory R. Maio, and Antony S. R. Manstead, “A New Way to Look at the Data: Similarities between Groups of People Are Large and Important,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 116 (2019): 541–62.

  interacting with members of another group: Thomas F. Pettigrew and Linda R. Tropp, “A Meta-analytic Test of Intergroup Contact Theory,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 90 (2006): 751–83.

  more likely to privilege their own perspectives: Jennifer R. Overbeck and Vitaliya Droutman, “One for All: Social Power Increases Self-Anchoring of Traits, Attitudes, and Emotions,” Psychological Science 24 (2013): 1466–76.

  their perspectives are more likely to go unquestioned: Leigh Plunkett Tost, Francesca Gino, and Richard P. Larrick, “When Power Makes Others Speechless,” Academy of Management Journal 56 (2013): 1465–86.

  Chapter 7. Vaccine Whisperers and Mild-Mannered Interrogators

  Marie-Hélène Étienne-Rousseau went into labor: See Eric Boodman, “The Vaccine Whisperers: Counselors Gently Engage New Parents Before Their Doubts Harden into Certainty,” STAT, August 5, 2019, www.statnews.com/2019/08/05/the-vaccine-whisperers-counselors-gently-engage-new-parents-before-their-doubts-harden-into-certainty.

  its mortality rate: Nick Paumgarten, “The Message of Measles,” New Yorker, August 26, 2019, www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/09/02/the-message-of-measles; Leslie Roberts, “Why Measles Deaths Are Surging—and Coronavirus Could Make It Worse,” Nature, April 7, 2020, www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01011-6.

  tried to prosecute the problem: Helen Branswell, “New York County, Declaring Emergency over Measles, Seeks to Ban Unvaccinated from Public Places,” STAT, March 26, 2019, www.statnews.com/2019/03/26/rockland-county-ny-declares-emergency-over-measles; Tyler Pager, “‘Monkey, Rat and Pig DNA’: How Misinformation Is Driving the Measles Outbreak among Ultra-Orthodox Jews,” New York Times, April 9, 2019, www.nytimes.com/2019/04/09/nyregion/jews-measles-vaccination.html.

  The results were often disappointing: Matthew J. Hornsey, Emily A. Harris, and Kelly S. Fielding, “The Psychological Roots of Anti-Vaccination Attitudes: A 24-Nation Investigation,” Health Psychology 37 (2018): 307–15.

  introducing people to the research: Cornelia Betsch and Katharina Sachse, “Debunking Vaccination Myths: Strong Risk Negations Can Increase Perceived Vaccination Risks,” Health Psychology 32 (2013): 146–55.

  their interest in vaccination didn’t rise at all: Brendan Nyhan et al., “Effective Messages in Vaccine Promotion: A Randomized Trial,” Pediatrics 133 (2014): e835–42.

  what doesn’t sway us: Zakary L. Tormala and Richard E. Petty, “What Doesn’t Kill Me Makes Me Stronger: The Effects of Resisting Persuasion on Attitude Certainty,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 83 (2002): 1298–313.

  the act of resistance fortifies: William J. McGuire, “Inducing Resistance to Persuasion: Some Contemporary Approaches,” Advances in Experimental Social Psychology 1 (1964): 191–229.

  Refuting a point of view: John A. Banas and Stephen A. Rains, “A Meta-analysis of Research on Inoculation Theory,” Communication Monographs 77 (2010): 281–311.

  clinical psychologist named Bill Miller: Personal communications with Bill Miller, September 3 and 6, 2019.

  core principles of a practice called motivational interviewing: William R. Miller and Stephen Rollnick, Motivational Interviewing: Helping People Change, 3rd ed. (New York: Guilford, 2012).

  a neonatologist and researcher named: Personal interview with Arnaud Gagneur, October 8, 2019.

  In Arnaud’s first study: Arnaud Gagneur et al., “A Postpartum Vaccination Promotion Intervention Using Motivational Interviewing Techniques Improves Short-Term Vaccine Coverage: PromoVac Study,” BMC Public Health 18 (2018): 811.

  In Arnaud’s next experiment: Thomas Lemaître et al., “Impact of a Vaccination Promotion Intervention Using Motivational Interview Techniques on Long-Term Vaccine Coverage: The PromoVac Strategy,” Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics 15 (2019): 732–39.

  help people stop smoking: Carolyn J. Heckman, Brian L. Egleston, and Makary T. Hofmann, “Efficacy of Motivational Interviewing for Smoking Cessation: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis,” Tobacco Control 19 (2010): 410–16.

  abusing drugs and alcohol: Brad W. Lundahl et al., “A Meta-analysis of Motivational Interviewing: Twenty-Five Years of Empirical Studies,” Research on Social Work Practice 20 (2010): 137–60.

  improve their diets and exercise habits: Brian L. Burke, Hal Arkowitz, and Marisa Menchola, “The Efficacy of Motivational Interviewing: A Meta-analysis of Controlled Clinical Trials,” Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 71 (2003): 843–61.

  overcome eating disorders: Pam Macdonald et al., “The Use of Motivational Interviewing in Eating Disorders: A Systematic Review,” Psychiatry Research 200 (2012): 1–11.

  and lose weight: Marni J. Armstrong et al., “Motivational Interviewing to Improve Weight Loss in Overweight Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials,” Obesity Reviews 12 (2011): 709–23.

  build grit in professional soccer players: Jonathan Rhodes et al., “Enhancing Grit through Functional Imagery Training in Professional Soccer,” Sport Psychologist 32 (2018): 220–25.

  teachers to nudge students: Neralie Cain, Michael Gradisar, and Lynette Moseley, “A Motivational School-Based Intervention for Adolescent Sleep Problems,” Sleep Medicine 12 (2011): 246–51.

  consultants to prepare teams: Conrado J. Grimolizzi-Jensen, “Organizational Change: Effect of Motivational Interviewing on Readiness to Change,” Journal of Change Management 18 (2018): 54–69.

  public health workers: Angelica K. Thevos, Robert E. Quick, and Violet Yanduli, “Motivational Interviewing Enhances the Adoption of Water Disinfection Practices in Zambia,” Health Promotion International 15 (2000): 207–14.

  and environmental activists: Florian E. Klonek et al., “Using Motivational Interviewing to Reduce Threats in Conversations about Environmental Behavior,” Frontiers in Psychology 6 (2015): 1015; Sofia Tagkaloglou and Tim Kasser, “Increasing Collaborative, Pro-Environmental Activism: The Roles of Motivational Interviewing, Self-Determined Motivation, and Self-Efficacy,” Journal of Environmental Psychology 58 (2018): 86–92.

  opened the minds of prejudiced voters: Joshua L. Kalla and David E. Broockman, “Reducing Exclusionary Attitudes through Interpersonal Conversation: Evidence from Three Field Experiments,” American Political Science Review 114 (2020): 410–25.
r />   help separated parents resolve disputes: Megan Morris, W. Kim Halford, and Jemima Petch, “A Randomized Controlled Trial Comparing Family Mediation with and without Motivational Interviewing,” Journal of Family Psychology 32 (2018): 269–75.

  a body of evidence this robust: Sune Rubak et al., “Motivational Interviewing: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis,” British Journal of General Practice 55 (2005): 305–12.

  When people ignore advice: Anna Goldfarb, “How to Give People Advice They’ll Be Delighted to Take,” New York Times, October 21, 2019, www.nytimes.com/2019/10/21/smarter-living/how-to-give-better-advice.html.

  sustain talk and change talk: Molly Magill et al., “A Meta-analysis of Motivational Interviewing Process: Technical, Relational, and Conditional Process Models of Change,” Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 86 (2018): 140–57; Timothy R. Apodaca et al., “Which Individual Therapist Behaviors Elicit Client Change Talk and Sustain Talk in Motivational Interviewing?,” Journal of Substance Abuse Treatment 61 (2016): 60–65; Molly Magill et al., “The Technical Hypothesis of Motivational Interviewing: A Meta-analysis of MI’s Key Causal Model,” Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 82 (2014): 973–83.

  “Change talk is a golden thread”: Theresa Moyers, “Change Talk,” Talking to Change with Glenn Hinds & Sebastian Kaplan.

  when people detect an attempt at influence: Marian Friestad and Peter Wright, “The Persuasion Knowledge Model: How People Cope with Persuasion Attempts,” Journal of Consumer Research 21 (1994): 1–31.

  Betty Bigombe had already hiked: Personal interviews with Betty Bigombe, March 19 and May 8, 2020; see also “Betty Bigombe: The Woman Who Befriended a Warlord,” BBC, August 8, 2019, www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-49269136.

  Joseph Kony was the leader: David Smith, “Surrender of Senior Aide to Joseph Kony Is Major Blow to Lord’s Resistance Army,” Guardian, January 7, 2015, www.theguardian.com/global-development/2015/jan/07/surrender-aide-joseph-kony-blow-lords-resistance-army.

  “truly curious questions”: Kate Murphy, “Talk Less. Listen More. Here’s How,” New York Times, January 9, 2010, www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/opinion/listening-tips.html.

  an empathetic, nonjudgmental, attentive listener: Guy Itzchakov et al., “The Listener Sets the Tone: High-Quality Listening Increases Attitude Clarity and Behavior-Intention Consequences,” Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 44 (2018): 762–78; Guy Itzchakov, Avraham N. Kluger, and Dotan R. Castro, “I Am Aware of My Inconsistencies but Can Tolerate Them: The Effect of High Quality Listening on Speakers’ Attitude Ambivalence,” Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 43 (2017): 105–20.

  people’s attitudes became more complex: Guy Itzchakov and Avraham N. Kluger, “Can Holding a Stick Improve Listening at Work? The Effect of Listening Circles on Employees’ Emotions and Cognitions,” European Journal of Work and Organizational Psychology 26 (2017): 663–76.

  working on being better listeners: Guy Itzchakov and Avraham N. Kluger, “The Power of Listening in Helping People Change,” Harvard Business Review, May 17, 2018, hbr.org/2018/05/the-power-of-listening-in-helping-people-change.

  “How can I tell what I think”: E. M. Forster, Aspects of the Novel (New York: Houghton Mifflin, 1927/1956); see also Graham Wallas, The Art of Thought (Kent, England: Solis Press, 1926/2014).

  “an inverse charisma”: Wendy Moffat, E. M. Forster: A New Life (London: Bloomsbury, 2011).

  managers rated as the worst listeners: Judi Brownell, “Perceptions of Effective Listeners: A Management Study,” International Journal of Business Communication 27 (1973): 401–15.

  their pets were better listeners: “Poll: 1 in 3 Women Say Pets Listen Better Than Husbands,” USA Today, April 30, 2010, usatoday30.usatoday.com/life/lifestyle/pets/2010-04-30-pets-vs-spouses_N.htm.

  doctors to interrupt their patients: Naykky Singh Ospina et al., “Eliciting the Patient’s Agenda: Secondary Analysis of Recorded Clinical Encounters,” Journal of General Internal Medicine 34 (2019): 36–40.

  29 seconds to describe their symptoms: M. Kim Marvel et al., “Soliciting the Patient’s Agenda: Have We Improved?,” Journal of the American Medical Association 281 (1999): 283–87.

  Chapter 8. Charged Conversations

  “When conflict is cliché”: Amanda Ripley, “Complicating the Narratives,” Solutions Journalism, June 27, 2018, thewholestory.solutionsjournalism.org/complicating-the-narratives-b91ea06ddf63.

  Difficult Conversations Lab: Peter T. Coleman, The Five Percent: Finding Solutions to Seemingly Impossible Conflicts (New York: PublicAffairs, 2011).

  the article framed the debate: Katharina Kugler and Peter T. Coleman, “Get Complicated: The Effects of Complexity on Conversations over Potentially Intractable Moral Conflicts,” Negotiation and Conflict Management Research (2020), onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ncmr.12192.

  simplifying a complex continuum: Matthew Fisher and Frank C. Keil, “The Binary Bias: A Systematic Distortion in the Integration of Information,” Psychological Science 29 (2018): 1846–58.

  the humorist Robert Benchley: “The Most Popular Book of the Month,” Vanity Fair, February 1920, babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=mdp.39015032024203&view=1up&seq=203&q1=divide%20the%20world.

  a phrase from Walt Whitman: Walt Whitman, Leaves of Grass, in Walt Whitman: The Complete Poems, ed. Francis Murphy (London: Penguin Classics, 1855/2005).

  “read less like a lawyer’s opening statement”: Ripley, “Complicating the Narratives.”

  Yet polls show bipartisan consensus: Mike DeBonis and Emily Guskin, “Americans of Both Parties Overwhelmingly Support ‘Red Flag’ Laws, Expanded Background Checks for Gun Buyers, Washington Post–ABC News Poll Finds,” Washington Post, September 9, 2019, www.washingtonpost.com/politics/americans-of-both-parties-overwhelmingly-support-red-flag-laws-expanded-gun-background-checks-washington-post-abc-news-poll-finds/2019/09/08/97208916-ca75-11e9-a4f3-c081a126de70_story.html; Domenico Montanaro, “Poll: Most Americans Want to See Congress Pass Gun Restrictions,” NPR, September 10, 2019, www.npr.org/2019/09/10/759193047/poll-most-americans-want-to-see-congress-pass-gun-restrictions.

  only 59 percent of Americans: Moira Fagan and Christine Huang, “A Look at How People around the World View Climate Change,” Pew Research Center, April 18, 2019, www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/04/18/a-look-at-how-people-around-the-world-view-climate-change.

  In the past decade in the United States: “Environment,” Gallup, news.gallup.com/poll/1615/environment.aspx; “About Six in Ten Americans Think Global Warming Is Mostly Human-Caused,” Yale Program on Climate Change, December 2018, climatecommunication.yale.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/climate_change_american_mind_december_2018_1-3.png.

  What we believe depends: Ben Tappin, Leslie Van Der Leer, and Ryan Mckay, “You’re Not Going to Change Your Mind,” New York Times, May 27, 2017, www.nytimes.com/2017/05/27/opinion/sunday/youre-not-going-to-change-your-mind.html.

  higher levels of education predict: Lawrence C. Hamilton, “Education, Politics and Opinions about Climate Change: Evidence for Interaction Effects,” Climatic Change 104 (2011): 231–42.

  “Some still doubt”: Al Gore, “The Case for Optimism on Climate Change,” TED, February 2016, www.ted.com/talks/al_gore_the_case_for_optimism_on_climate_change.

  he was called the Elvis: Steven Levy, “We Are Now at Peak TED,” Wired, February 19, 2016, www.wired.com/2016/02/we-are-now-at-peak-ted.

  contrasted scientists with “climate deniers”: Al Gore, “We Can’t Wish Away Climate Change,” New York Times, February 27, 2010, www.nytimes.com/2010/02/28/opinion/28gore.html.

  six camps of thought: “Global Warming’s Six Americas,” Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, climatecommunication.yale.edu/about/projects/global-warmings-six-americas.

  climate contrarians received disproportionate coverage: Alexander Michael Petersen, Emmanuel M. Vincent, and Anthony LeRoy
Westerling, “Discrepancy in Scientific Authority and Media Visibility of Climate Change Scientists and Contrarians,” Nature Communications 10 (2019): 3502.

  overestimating how common denial is: Matto Mildenberger and Dustin Tingley, “Beliefs about Climate Beliefs: The Importance of Second-Order Opinions for Climate Politics,” British Journal of Political Science 49 (2019): 1279–307.

  within denial there are at least six different categories: Philipp Schmid and Cornelia Betsch, “Effective Strategies for Rebutting Science Denialism in Public Discussions,” Nature Human Behavior 3 (2019): 931–39.

  when journalists acknowledge the uncertainties: Anne Marthe van der Bles et al., “The Effects of Communicating Uncertainty on Public Trust in Facts and Numbers,” PNAS 117 (2020): 7672–83.

  when experts express doubt: Uma R. Karmarkar and Zakary L. Tormala, “Believe Me, I Have No Idea What I’m Talking About: The Effects of Source Certainty on Consumer Involvement and Persuasion,” Journal of Consumer Research 36 (2010): 1033–49.

  media reported on a study: Tania Lombrozo, “In Science Headlines, Should Nuance Trump Sensation?,” NPR, August 3, 2015, www.npr.org/sections/13.7/2015/08/03/428984912/in-science-headlines-should-nuance-trump-sensation.

  The actual study showed: Vincenzo Solfrizzi et al., “Coffee Consumption Habits and the Risk of Mild Cognitive Impairment: The Italian Longitudinal Study on Aging,” Journal of Alzheimer’s Disease 47 (2015): 889–99.

  jolt of instant complexity: Ariana Eunjung Cha, “Yesterday’s Coffee Science: It’s Good for the Brain. Today: Not So Fast . . .*” Washington Post, August 28, 2015, www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2015/07/30/yesterdays-coffee-science-its-good-for-the-brain-today-not-so-fast.

  Scientists overwhelmingly agree: “Do Scientists Agree on Climate Change?,” NASA, https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/17/do-scientists-agree-on-climate-change; John Cook et al., “Consensus on Consensus: A Synthesis of Consensus Estimates on Human-Caused Global Warming,” Environmental Research Letters 11 (2016): 048002; David Herring, “Isn’t There a Lot of Disagreement among Climate Scientists about Global Warming?,” ClimateWatch Magazine, February 3, 2020, www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/isnt-there-lot-disagreement-among-climate-scientists-about-global-warming.

 

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