1999 Kargil War
For over 15 years, the Pakistani army stayed quiet and content with fomenting extremists in Kashmir. In May 1998, both India and Pakistan became nuclear powers. Some thought this would finally end wars as both nations couldn't face a Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) of nuclear weapons. In February 1999, Prime Minister Vajpayee made a landmark peace trip to Lahore in Pakistan, and Indian citizens felt a surging spring of hope. Some even contemplated the reunification of India and Pakistan.
While Vajpayee was traveling to Pakistan, a group of Pakistani soldiers were moving into the frigid hills of Kashmir. The template was the same as 1947 and 1965 - foment trouble and start a rebellion among Kashmiris. The plan was inspired by India's takeover of Siachen. Given the sudden rise of terrorism in the 1990s, Pakistan was emboldened.
On May 3, local sheep herders reported the intrusions in the Dras sector of Kargil in Kashmir. In the next month, a deep conflict developed as India started attacking the hills now occupied by Pakistanis. The hills were very crucial in controlling the Indian highway NH 1A that connected the eastern and western halves of Kashmir. On July 4, India captured the pivotal Tiger Hills, and the images of beaming Indian soldiers carrying the flag captured the nation's imagination [As an aside, when I joined college some of the notebooks supplied by my college had the capture of Tiger hills as the cover picture. People used the image everywhere]. After the capture, India prepared for a ceasefire, and on July 26, the war came to an end.
Meanwhile, Nawaz Sharif was reprimanded by the US in Washington D.C., and unlike in previous wars, the US had categorically ruled to not side with Pakistan. The G8 nations [world's largest economies] also condemned Pakistan, and for the first time, the world was on India's side in a war. The tide had turned.
India was engulfed in a wave of patriotism, and even the stock market responded handsomely to the victory by surging 30% in the months following the war to end bearish trends.
Israel helped India with tech during the war, and the US was instrumental in bringing the war to an end. The war was thus pivotal in India's relationship with both Israel and the US. India's bad relationship with the rest of the world seemed to end.
Each time Pakistan sent its army into Kashmir, posing as ordinary men, it expected the Kashmiris to revolt in large numbers and the "Hindus" to give up too easily. However, each time it showed that the Kashmiris have little attachment for Pakistan and that the Indians had no intention of giving up Kashmir either.
2008 Mumbai Attacks
While Pakistan avoided fighting direct wars after the Kargil conflict, it continued to foment terrorist acts on Indian soil. In 2001, its terrorists attacked the Indian Parliament, and that incident threatened to bring a nuclear war in South Asia. Luckily, cooler heads prevailed.
The gravest of Pakistan's terrorist attacks was in Mumbai on November 26, 2008. Eleven Pakistan-trained attackers landed in Mumbai and brought a night of violence by attacking the Victoria Terminus railway station, two five-star hotels, a cafe, a hospital and a Jewish centre. The terrorists hijacked a small fishing trawler named Kuber and used that to slip into the city.
The main battle was in the iconic Taj hotel, and the fight lasted for three days and killed 100 hostages. The NSG and Marine Commandos finally brought the crisis to an end by killing ten attackers and capturing one - Ajmal Kasab, who was later hung after a brief court trial.
Like the attacks on New York (2001) and London (2005), this one became etched in the memories of the world citizens. .
* * *
War with China
The way to world conquest lies through Havana, Accra, and Calcutta.
-- Mao Zedong
It was not a war, but a war. Neither side declared war. No air force or navy were used. There was no termination of diplomatic relationships. It was as though a war didn't exist. But, it existed.
India and China enjoyed a peaceful coexistence for over 5,000 years of civilization. This was enabled by the massive Tibetan plateau that prevented both civilizations from coming together - for good or bad reasons. In October 1962, China would change this while the world was engrossed in a brutal game of nuclear chicken between the US and the USSR.
In a three-week border skirmish, China would hurt the Indian psyche like no other war. For the only time in 200 years, India was on the losing side of the war, fighting its only war with China.
Like the other Himalayan Kingdom of Kashmir, Tibet has been a source of persistent trouble with China.
Sino Indian War = Mapping error + clueless Indian leadership + belligerent China that was trying to prove something.
* * *
Formation of the People's Republic of China
Both China and India were great nations with a long history and after the European colonization in 19th century, both were rebuilding in the mid-20th century. But, both nations could not decide how far their borders went as the nations waxed and waned at various times. China's borders peaked under the reign of the Manchu Qing dynasty and many Chinese still wanted their government to claim the territories held by the Qing emperor then.
However, the Qing emperor had overextended himself by capturing deep into territories that never really belonged to China in history. The empire started to weaken and from the start of the 18th century to the middle of the 20th century, China was in a perpetual state of civil war, internal crisis, and later a war with Japan.
On October 1, 1949, Mao Zedong led his Communist Party into Beijing and started a new chapter. He wanted to take China to its past glory. His administration also wanted to regain many of the territories lost after the implosion of the Qing empire.
Tibet Issue
Within a year of the PRC formation, Mao's troops stormed into the nation of Tibet and took over. Although it was a part of the Qing empire, Tibet historically didn’t belong to China’s empires. Thus, this action shocked people around the world. India was aghast, but Nehru made peace with China in 1954 and refused to intervene in Tibet.
During his visit to India in 1956 to mark Buddha's birthday, the 14th Dalai Lama Tenzin Gyatso (the spiritual head of Tibet) asked for Nehru's help in seeking asylum. Nehru refused, citing the 1954 peace treaty. In March 1959 a major uprising began in Tibet, at the behest of the CIA, after news was spread that the Chinese were abducting the major leaders of Tibet. Fearing for his life, the Dalai Lama crossed into India on March 30th.
India gave asylum to the Dalai Lama although Nehru didn't let the leader make any public statements. China was however aghast and wanted India to give up the leader. Nehru refused to give up and the Chinese thought this was a backstab. Since then, the relationships between the nations started worsening.
While it was independent, Tibet was used as a buffer state by Britain to insulate India from Central and East Asia. Its borders with India were not clearly demarcated and there were two major issues.
Aksai Chin in Kashmir (Western front) -- Johnson line
Arunachal Pradesh in North East India (Eastern Front) -- McMahon line
Source of Contention
Western Front:
In 1834, the Sikh army took over Ladakh, a vassal state of Tibet. Ladakh and Tibet had an uneasy relationship then. Around the same time, the Qing empire had its eyes on Ladakh, while the Sikhs wanted to push into Tibet. The Qings and Sikh fought a war in 1842. The war resulted in a stalemate and the Sikhs held on to Ladakh. After the defeat of the Sikhs in the 1846 Anglo-Sikh wars, the territory of Kashmir along with Ladakh was passed to the British who then sold it off to a Dogra prince of Jammu.
The genesis of the conflict lies in the Johnson line of mid-1865 that put the map of Ladakh far into Xinjiang. This was by an overzealous civil servant named WH Johnson. The Qing and Sikhs had not decided on the boundary near Aksai Chin and since no one lived there, Johnson took some liberty in this drawing. The Qing empire didn't control Xinjiang at that time and thus was not able to officially protest. In 1878, it took control of Xinjiang and asserted its claim over Ak
sai Chin.
In 1899, the British and Chinese agreed on the more feasible Mccartney-Mcdonald line that put this region in China. After the end of the Qing empire in 1911, the British and the Maharaja of Kashmir went back to putting the disputed region in Kashmir by resorting to the Johnson line. After its independence in 1947 and the takeover of Kashmir, India used the Johnson line as the official border. Tibet was an independent nation then.
China didn't recognize the validity of the Johnson line and started to use the Mcdonald line. In 1956 it even built a road through the middle of this region to connect Xinjiang and Tibet. For China, Aksai Chin was important as the primary front for connecting these two semi-autonomous regions. The geography didn't favor India and India didn't even realize that a road was built.
Eastern Front:
On the eastern front, the story was tricky. Both China and India have a claim over the land (Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim as it is known internationally and Kham holdouts/Southern Tibet as they are known in China) - although the geography and culture favor India's claim. India considered the Himalayas as the natural boundary and it was also defensible.
We have already seen the issue of Arunachal in Chapter 1. India had the advantage of geography and culture and thus took it. However, in Aksai Chin - a part of Kashmir but not really ruled by anyone - China had the advantage of geography.
The trouble started to brew as Chinese forces killed nine Indian policemen in Aksai China in 1959 and also took a prisoner in Longju. Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai unofficially suggested trading Arunachal Pradesh for Aksai Chin, but Nehru refused. China didn't take further action as both the US and the USSR sided with India.
India began to make forward positions starting from 1961 and in that year, China finally got assurance from the US that the Taiwanese would not attack China. This allowed China to move its forces to Tibet and they allegedly even used the Indian port of Calcutta to move some of the non-military logistics.
Cuban Missile Crisis
The US and the USSR had strong enmity starting from the end of World War II. The USSR wanted to spread a Communist revolution, while the US reportedly wanted a world of free trade. Behind the sound bites were two power-hungry nations that built a string of allies. Both were evenly matched and had the deadliest of weapons.
In October 1962, the USSR brought the crisis close to the US by a planned Soviet deployment of missiles in Cuba (merely miles off the US state of Florida). This was in direct response to the US deploying missiles in Turkey close to the border of the USSR.
The US considered invading Cuba and the USSR warned that an invasion of Cuba would bring an attack from them. The world watched in tension as these nuclear powers threatened to blow up the whole world. The crisis started on October 14.
China Launches a Surprise Attack
As the world watched Cuba, China noticed a window of opportunity. Mao already knew of the Soviet's plans and were thus preparing in advance for this. People's Liberation Army (PLA) of China already had a few engagements with the Indian Army near Arunachal Pradesh.
On October 20, six days after the start of the Cuban crisis, PLA attacked Chip Chap Valley in the Aksai Chin and Nam Chu river in the east.
Recently declassified CIA POLO documents show that besides hurting India in a military sense, Mao also wanted to hurt the prestige of both Nehru and Khrushchev (Russian premier) for backstabbing China.
In the eastern front, PLA reached as far as the outskirts of Tezpur Assam, but pulled back as it was in the range of the Indian Air Force from Calcutta and PLA had no air support. The Indian government had already released prisoners from a local jail and destroyed currencies; casualties were heavy on both sides, many resulting from the cold weather.
As the Cuban crisis ended in the October, China started feeling pressure and as their objective was achieved (locking their positions and shaming Nehru) China announced a unilateral ceasefire on the 19th of November. It was reported that the Kennedy administration even considered the use of nuclear weapons against China in aid of India. While UAE supported India, other non-aligned nations didn't fully condemn China. This hurt India's pride. After the war, Pakistan and China became closer.
Although India didn't lose a lot of territory and both sides lost heavily (despite having the advantage of surprise China lost 722 soldiers against India’s 1,380), the war brought a small internal crisis in India. Nehru was blamed by President Radhakrishnan and the Defense minister Krishna Menon was forced to resign. The war led to a modernization of Indian troops and in the following decade, both China and India tested nuclear weapons.
During the war, India broke its free ethos and interned many Chinese Indians just like what the US did with Japanese Americans during the Second World War. For years, those even remotely connected with China were treated shabbily. That was the real defeat for India - to be forced to be someone we are not.
In the end, India's loss was not in military terms, but in the national psyche. The national pride was hurt and most Indians remember the war, while very few Chinese or other parties still remember the conflict.
I will end this chapter with a current issue.
Can India afford to reduce the military budget?
Why India needs to spend money on aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines?
You have left your toddler at home alone and you are constantly worried while at the office. You are worried whether the door is locked. You are concerned if the stove is off. You are not able to focus on work as you don't know if your son is safe at home or not. Then your mother calls up and says she got home and is going to take care of your son. You know she is responsible and will protect your son the best way. Now, you can take your worries off and focus on the work. Maybe you might be twice as productive now.
The same works for nations. When we are not sure of our borders and when we are not sure whether our military can withstand various attacks, we get paranoid and our economy goes down the drain. But, if we are really assured that we have a strong military that can protect us from a wide range of enemies, we can take off the worries and the nation can go full speed on economy.
Switzerland, Singapore, Israel and US all have amazing militaries that enabled them to historically grow much faster than their neighborhood. Investors and entrepreneurs need this comfort before they can take the risky ventures.
Defense decides destiny
In India’s 5000 year+ history, it has seen the follies of having weak defense. We are in a terrible neighborhood and often was the target of invasions.
Indus Valley Civilization probably ended because it didn't maintain a strong army which could have protected a part of it from the natural and man-made disasters. If the Nanda king got along with Puru, Alexander would have never reached the banks of Indus. If the later Gupta kings had not loosened up, they would have been able to protect India's greatest civilization. If we had a strong defense in the 11th century, Nalanda University would not be under ruins now. If the later Cholas after Rajendra had kept up, Tamil territory would not have fallen so deep in the following centuries. Later, when the Mughals were weakened, India was under colonial occupation.
On the other hand, whenever an Indian king got strong, India went to its heights. Ashoka was a very strong ruler. Indian society reached its peak. So was the period under Samudragupta, Raja Raja Chola, Harsha Vardana and Akbar. Our greatest achievements came when our kings and the armed forces were really strong.
When our gates are strongly protected, we could explore the greatness of humanity. On the other hand, when outsiders are constantly jumping into our home, we will have no time for building our achievements. If you don't have a strong defense, you got nothing.
Why India needs to spend so much?
Look at India's massive threats.
Nuclear powers: India has 3 nuclear powers in its neighborhood and two of them are hostile powers with which India both borders & have fought wars with. Thus, we need a credible nuclear triad [submarines, bombers, missile
s] to defend ourselves. Those are not cheap.
Exploding powers: The distance between Baghdad and Amritsar is the same as the distance between Amritsar & Kanyakumari. While the Middle East might appear far, it is actually quite close. Thus, IS and all other crazy groups fighting there are a direct threat to Indian interests. Afghanistan is completely broken now that US is leaving it. Most of the terrorists would spill into ours at some point. How would you fight these threats at their source without having long range aircraft?
Superpowers: India needs the aircraft carriers for a counterattack. In the unlikely case of China circling India & starting an attack on Indian soil [through Pakistan or another neighbor], India needs to deliver the threat of its aircraft carrier directly attacking China's shores. This threat of getting their heart exposed would make the opponent withdraw. Without an aircraft carrier, there is no way for India to take the battle to China. No one dares mess with a nation that has multiple aircraft carriers and sneaky submarines. Of course, India is unlikely to be the nation that is starting the attack.
Pirates: Indian ocean is bounded by two piracy groups at the Strait of Malacca and Horn of Africa. I will give you a better map of how the pirates are encircling India & threaten trade in India's ocean. How would you go and deliver an attack on Somalia? You need really powerful blue water capabilities. In fact, Raja Raja Chola was a pioneer in building anti-piracy efforts to protect Chola empire's trade in Indian ocean. That greatly helped Tamil Nadu. We need to do that at Indian scale.
Separatists: India has a had a never ending battle with lunatics and fanatics who want to split India. The separatists of all 100+ groups fighting to split from India put together might be less than 1 crore fighters. In other words, 99%+ of India are peaceful and want to stay in India, while this troublesome 1% threatens the sovereignty of our country. They range from extortionist groups in Northeast who do kidnapping for a living to Kashmiri terrorists exported from Afghanistan & Central Asia to misguided communist/Maoist rebels in central India. India needs advanced helicopters, intelligence agencies and spy satellites keep them under control.
From Tryst to Tendulkar: The History of Independent India Page 12