Karachi Agreement (1949): This was at the conclusion of the first Indo-Pak war and done at the behest of the UN. The countries agreed to a cease-fire line in Kashmir. The line runs between the parts of Kashmir administered by Pakistan and India.
Tashkent Declaration (1966): This agreement was brokered by the USSR and held in Tashkent (now in Uzbekistan). The agreement brought truce after the 1965 war. At the end of the agreement, Indian Prime Minister Shastri mysteriously died, adding to plenty of conspiracy theories.
Simla Agreement (1972): This paved the way for the recognition of Bangladesh (previously called East Pakistan). It added some formal recognition to the 1949 cease-fire line in Kashmir (now called the Line of Control) between the two countries. This was followed up by the Delhi Agreement in 1973 where India allowed the return of Pakistani Prisoners of War (PoW).
Non-Nuclear Aggression Agreement (1988): In 1981, Israeli Air Force made a surprise attack on Iraq’s nuclear facilities and crippled the nation’s nuclear program. Pakistan was quite worried after this and in 1998, Prime Minister Bhutto invited her counterpart Rajiv Gandhi to Islamabad. They both agreed on a treaty whereby neither nation would aid the destruction of the other’s nuclear facilities.
Lahore Declaration (1999): Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee made a historic journey to Pakistan, a few months after the two countries went nuclear. For a while there was euphoria. With weeks after this agreement, Pakistan’s army staged intrusion into Kashmir causing yet another war in the summer of 1999.
Agra Summit (2001): Yet another time, there was a meeting between the two countries after a long period of lobbying by UN and other powers. Vajpayee invited President Pervez Musharraf to Agra. Within months of the agreement, there was a major terrorist attack on Indian Parliament and the two nations yet again went back to high tensions.
Key issues that hamper relationships:
Kashmir: Both nations have a claim on Kashmir. Although the monarch of Kashmir had officially acceded to India, Pakistan didn’t accept the accession. Both nations see the other’s occupation of a part of Kashmir as illegal.
Indus water: Water is among the most scarce commodities in the dry South Asia. Both countries often fight to makes the best utilization of the waters of Indus river that they both share.
World powers: Pakistan was often a playground for world powers. US used the region for its proxy war against the Soviet Union and the war in Afghanistan. Pakistan is also close to China. India, for the most part, remained on the opposite side - USSR - or part of no side at all.
Terrorism: From India’s side, the key issue is one of terrorism. Since the late 1980s, Pakistan has been exporting terrorism to India and has been unable to contain its support for the insurgents.
When I was about 11 years old, my parents took me to the Wagah border near Amritsar. There is a daily event at the Indo-Pak border that allowed people from both sides to get the glimpse of each other. We looked similar and still there was a big obstacle between us. Outside of India, I have met plenty of people from Pakistan and find that as people we have always got together well. We have even watch Indo-Pak cricket matches together. There is no reason why India and Pakistan can’t have a peaceful relationship.
Relationship with China
For thousands of years, civilizations in India and China had little contact of each other and those contacts were always positive. Things changed in 1950, when the People’s Republic of China annexed Tibet. This brought the two civilizations too close to each other.
In 1962, India and China fought a border war. Since then, the relationship has often grown tense.
Key issues
Unresolved borders - India and China are yet to decide their borders in Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh.
Support for Pakistan - Since 1962, China has been having an increasingly strong cooperation with Pakistan and this often worries Indian strategists.
Trade imbalance - Since 1970s, China grew much faster than India and thus exports to India more than it imports from it. Also, India’s exports to China is more of raw materials than finished products. This adds some concern for Indian economists.
Relationship with Bangladesh
As a student, my friends and I once had a long journey to Bangladesh capital of Dhaka crossing many rivers and traveling in small buses. It took 4 days for us to complete the journey and we made great friends there. The country looked practically the same as India, but still there was such a barrier between the two countries.
India and Bangladesh started off well. India helped Bangladesh get independence from Pakistan in 1972. However, things started going downhill due to a range of thorny issues.
Sharing of Ganga waters: After the 1975 opening of Farakka Barrage in West Bengal to divert Ganga water to the port of Calcutta, tensions between both countries rose. India needed the water diversion to prevent the critical Calcutta (now Kolkata) port from getting silted up. Bangladesh fears that its key water source is in danger.
Illegal immigration: Due to the differences in economic development, many Bangladeshis cross the porous borders to find jobs in India. This has led to plenty of tensions in Northeastern India.
India needs the help of either Myanmar or Bangladesh [preferably both] to fully tap Northeast India’s potential.
1. Ports - The nearest port for the Northeast is Kolkata. Kolkata is 1500 km from the northeastern cities of Aizawl and Agartala. Not just the distance, the route passes through multiple states and through a lot of mountains. Imagine dragging a heavy machinery through this long, narrow road. This makes trade and manufacturing very hard in the Northeast. Every product that is either produced in Northeast or needed in northeast has to be carried through that one road through Siliguri. On the other hand, Chittagong port is only 200km from the state of Tripura and passes through the mostly flat land. A major Bangladesh railway junction Akhaura is just 10 km from Agartala.
2. Migration - Major cities in India's northeast are quite close to the rural hinterland of Bangladesh. For many rural Banglas, it is easy to find jobs in these cities than in Dhaka or Chittagong. Thus, there is a massive migration that is rapidly impacting the demographics of the Northeast. Many tribes feel marginalized in their own territory. India needs Bangladeshi government's help to arrest the endless flow of migrants.
3. Separatism - Tripura alone shares 850 km of border with Bangladesh. Other states like Mizoram share long borders too [a total of 4000+ km of shared borders between Northeast India and Bangladesh]. Given the long and unpatrolled borders, the separatists and troublemakers in this region easily escape to Bangladesh. It is hard to fight the separatism as long as the separatists have such an easy escape hatch. India needs Bangladesh's help in patrolling the borders and also bring the fugitives to justice.
4. Food movement - Eastern side of Bangladesh is quite fertile and produces a lot of rice. This can be easily be moved to Tripura, Mizoram and Manipur rather than dragging the food from West Bengal through the Siliguri corridor or air lifting them.
5. Plains and hills - Tripura, West Bengal and Bangladesh are all plains, while the routes between Tripura and West Bengal through Meghalaya are major hills.
6. Risk of Chicken neck - Currently the Siliguri corridor remains the only link between the Northeast and the rest of India. Any problem there - terrorist attacks, natural disasters, etc. - would completely screw the 7 states of North east. Bangladesh help would reduce that risk substantially.
Why a deal with Bangladesh would help?
It will enable the easy movement of people and goods to Northeast from the rest of the world. Imagine cutting through Bangladesh to reach Tripura or Mizoram at lightning speed.
It will generate a lot of employment through new industries in the northeast. The region will get prosperous.
A prosperous region would have little reasons to fight for separatism. India's national security would improve.
Bangladesh would get prosperous too with this trade and many of their locals would have a les
ser need to jump across to India. That would reduce migration & again improve India's security.
What kind of deals India is looking at?
A train link to Akhaura. The distance between Akhaura [in Bangladesh] and Agartala [Tripura's capital] is just 10 km. Linking them with a new line to enable deep links between the two railway systems.
Improving the 70 km road between Tripura's town of Sabroom and the Chittagong port. Chittagong is a major international port and this road can enable movement of goods in 1 hour.
Bus between Agartala and Kolkata through Bangladesh. This could cut the travel time from about 40 hours to about 4 hours.
Relationship with Myanmar
My maternal grandfather and his father spent time there as traders. There was a long relationship between the two countries and traders from various parts of India, especially the south and northeast made a good life traveling to Burma.
The same points for Bangladesh also apply here. India has a had a long relationship with Burma. There are even many Tamil temples in Burma. Besides, it is deeply connected with Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland and Arunachal. Major cities like Imphal and Kohima are less than 30 minutes away from the Burma border.
What India is doing with Myanmar?
Build plenty of new roads to reach Southeast Asia - Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Cambodia, etc.
Provide a way for the people of restive Manipur and Nagaland to new economic avenues. Manipur especially has a lot to benefit as it currently depends too much on the road through Nagaland through which all its supplies from rest of India come.
Pull Myanmar little out of China's reach. India and Myanmar share much more cultural aspects.
Increase trade and that will also make Myanmar prosperous. A prosperous neighbor is always a good thing.
Relationship with Israel
India has historically not supported Israel when a Nehru family member was around. Nehru was terribly against Israel and joined the Arabs in condemning the UN resolution. However, whenever a Nehru family member was not around the Indian government made quick moves towards Israel.
Until the 1990s, India was quite anti-Israel. The first change came via the more pragmatic Narasimha Rao who wanted Israel's help in growing the economy and technology. Then, the Kargil war came that changed India's foreign policy.
During the 1999 Kargil war with Pakistan, Israel helped India with defense technology and the ruling right wingers loved that. A few news sources in India in May 1998 that claimed that Israel was ready to strike Pakistan's nuclear facilities [before it went nuclear] if India gave a go and supported Israel in its conflicts. None of India's Arab friends really came forward to help India in a moment of crisis. India moved closer to both Israel and the US due to their help in ending the crisis.
India is tech hungry and Israel has plenty of tech. For a poor country with a weak agricultural infrastructure, India has plenty to gain in terms of tech transfers and capital equipment sales.
Israel sympathizes with India on Kashmir and India realizes that it cannot go too harsh on Israel as it would give more momentum to Kashmir extremists.
India historically feared Arab nations due to oil supplies and Indian workers there. However, as oil gets traded in global markets freely and Indian workers are more indispensable for Arab economies, Indian government no longer prioritizes about those issues.
Relationship with Afghanistan
There is a very strong historical connection that runs for thousands of years. Throughout Indian history, major emperors of India ruled Afghanistan and vice versa. Since the start of the 20th century, Afghanistan became a toy in the great game played between Russia and Britain to influence India.
The short-lived Democratic Republic of Afghanistan, formed under the influence of the Soviet Union, had become India's friend. The rebels who were created to fight this new republic and the Soviet influence thus became anti-India and pro-Pakistan.
Until the arrival of Talibans (essentially Pakistan's protege), India enjoyed a strong relationship with Afghanistan. A lot of Afghan leaders, including the current President Karzai studied in India.
India was also close friends with the Northern Alliance that helped topple the Talibans in the aftermath of 2001. Since 2001, India has helped Afghanistan substantially in its reconstruction.
In a Gallup poll done in 2010, the majority of Afghans preferred Indians over both Americans and Pakistanis. Afghanistan stands at #3 when it comes to aid receipts from India.
Relationship with Nepal
In my trip to Nepal for researching material for this book, I once saw a big banner that portrayed India as a big python that was engulfing the nation of Nepal. As I traveled the rural country in local buses, I often sensed a cold relationship towards Indians. However, I also found many other Nepalis quite friendly towards India. Nepal as a country is quite divided in its relationship with India.
The people of plains are more favorable to India than the people in the Himalayan districts. Again the religious divide is also visible with the Hindus a little more pro-India than Buddhists. Then there are also economic divide - with the fast rising Nepali businessmen/middle class a little more pro-India than the Maoists who recently took power. There is a complex socioeconomic dynamics at play in the love-hate relationship between the countries.
Part of this is a failure of India to assure the smaller neighbor that their security and sovereignty would not be compromised. Other than Nehru and Gujral, most Indian Prime Ministers ignored the state and often could be accused of taking it for granted. However, things seems to be changing under Modi’s regime with the following issues brought to the center.
Power and Water: Nepal has a lot of water and electricity potential, and India is hungry for both. In fact, Nepal has the world's second highest hydroelectric power potential and sits right next to India's most populated states.
Geopolitics: Nepal is critical for India to keep China out of South Asia. It is not an accident that Modi visits Bhutan and Nepal among his first three official visits since becoming a Prime Minister. Both nations sit between India and China and do a very important job of giving India a buffer. Indian Prime Ministers often took our neighbors for granted and that has allowed India's rivals to set up shop all around India. If your neighbors are not friendly, you will have a terrible time with your security. By charming Bhutan and Nepal, India gets to be the leader in South Asia.
External Security: China wants to build roads and railways within Nepal and that is dangerous for India, as China could instantly move supplies to Indian borders in a war. If China builds infrastructure in Nepal, that would put Chinese forces much more closer to Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. India doesn't want that.
Internal Security: Communist terrorists (Naxalites/Maoists) are becoming a huge problem for India. Because of the Naxalites, the development projects for 100 million (10 crore) people are blocked. The Naxalites mainly use Nepal as the springboard, along with a bit of China and Bangladesh. Modi wants to first close the Nepal route and eventually deal with Bangladesh and China.
It's business: Nepal gets all these loans to buy infrastructure, machinery, cement, and vehicles from India. Other than India and China, they don't have any other neighbors to do business with. That benefits a lot of Indian businesses.
4. What Modi Might Do in Foreign Policy?
Modi is expected to look east, especially Japan. This is an Indian government policy initiative that first started 20 years ago, but has not been followed up much. As a Chief Minister of Gujarat, Modi developed close links with China, Japan, and other Asian countries. Modi idolizes China and Japan. Japanese Premier Abe and Modi share a lot of similar views on the West, culture, economy, etc. For Japan and the rest of the East and Southeast Asia, he is going to be the most friendly Indian Prime Minister they have ever had.
More emphasis on Israel. Like Japan, Israel cultivated a relationship with Modi when he was a pariah in the world. Israel already has plenty of investments in Gujarat. Israel and Ind
ia would get along quite well as Modi carries no historical baggage like Congress did.
More closer to Russia than the US. Modi shares some qualities with Putin. For instance, both leaders care less about what the leaders in the West think of them. Although Putin's communism (or whatever model you want to call that) is not going to sit well with Modi's capitalism, together they are going to step on the gas to collaborate on a massive scale.
Modi's play on South Asia will be interesting. Modi had a tough stand on India's neighbors during the campaign. He said he had little patience for the illegal immigrants from Bangladesh, Communist rebels from Nepal, or the terrorists from Pakistan. However, this tough campaign has also given him plenty of room to negotiate. He has already invited the leaders of South Asia to his swearing ceremony - a historic move. Now, he is looking to make Bangladesh (and not the US/Europe) as his first stop.
New perspective on Indo-Sri Lankan relationships. For decades, Indian foreign policy on Sri Lanka was controlled by the leaders in Tamil Nadu. For the first time in Indian history, there are not going to be any Dravidian sympathizers in the cabinet. That is going to make things different. Without the need to please the Dravidian parties (although you have that Vaiko guy - who is practically powerless), Modi might take a bolder move in Sri Lanka.
Australia will benefit among developed nations. Modi is expected to pay lesser emphasis on the US and Europe than some of his predecessors. However, one developed nation that might benefit is Australia which has had a relationship with Modi since 13 years ago. Australia could even be India's mediator in dealing with the West.
Modi will be a cautious friend for China. Modi loves China and he is going to focus a lot on building trade links with China. However, unlike the Prime Ministers of the past, China is going to see an Indian leader who is no-nonsense. He is not going to give much room and compete a lot for Asian leadership, but at the same time is not going to be unreasonable. I'm hoping the Sino-Indian border issues to get resolved in his reign.
From Tryst to Tendulkar: The History of Independent India Page 17