by Rolf Dobelli
FEATURE-POSITIVE EFFECT
The antismoking campaign: Guangzhi Zhao and Cornelia Pechmann, “Regulatory Focus, Feature Positive Effect, and Message Framing,” Advances in Consumer Research 33, no. 1 (2006): 100.
An overview of the research on the feature-positive effect: Frank R. Kardes, David M. Sanbonmatsu, and Paul M. Herr, “Consumer Expertise and the Feature-Positive Effect: Implications for Judgment and Inference,” Advances in Consumer Research 17 (1990): 351–54.
CHERRY PICKING
“The harmful effects of smoking are roughly equivalent to the combined good ones of every medical intervention developed since the war. Those who smoke, in other words, now have the same life expectancy as if they were non-smokers without access to any health care developed in the last half-century. Getting rid of smoking provides more benefit than being able to cure people of every possible type of cancer.” Druin Burch, Taking the Medicine: A Short History of Medicine’s Beautiful Idea and Our Difficulty Swallowing It (London: Chatto & Windus, 2009), 238.
Cherry picking in religion: People take what suits them from the Bible and ignore the other teachings. If we wanted to follow the Bible literally, we would have to stone disobedient sons and unfaithful wives (Deuteronomy 21 and 22) and kill all homosexuals (Leviticus 20:13).
Cherry picking in forecasting: Forecasts that turn out to be correct are announced triumphantly. Wrong prognoses remain “unpicked.” See the chapter on the forecast illusion.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifrgile: Things That Gain from Disorder (New York: Random House, 2012), 200.
FALLACY OF THE SINGLE CAUSE
Chris Matthews cited in: Christopher Chabris and Daniel Simons, The Invisible Gorilla: And Other Ways Our Intuitions Deceive Us (New York: Crown, 2010), 172. The authors highlighted the quotes.
Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace (New York: Vintage Classics, 2008), 606.
A great essay on the fallacy of the single cause: John Tooby, “Nexus Causality, Moral Warfare, and Misattribution Arbitrage,” in John Brockman, This Will Make You Smarter (New York: Harper, 2012), 34–35.
INTENTION-TO-TREAT ERROR
Hans-Hermann Dubben and Hans-Peter Beck-Bornholdt, Der Hund, der Eier legt: Erkennen von Fehlinformation durch Querdenken (Reinbek, Germany: Rororo Publishers, 2006), 238–39. Unfortunately, no English translation of this excellent book exists.
For a full description of the intention-to-treat error, sometimes also referred to as “intent-to-treat,” read: John M. Lachin, “Statistical Considerations in the Intent-to-Treat Principle,” Controlled Clinical Trials 21, no. 5 (October 2000): 526.
EPILOGUE
Via Negativa: “Charlie generally focuses first on what to avoid—that is, on what NOT to do—before he considers the affirmative steps he will take in a given situation. ‘All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there’ is one of his favorite quips.” In: Charles T. Munger, Poor Charlie’s Almanack, expanded 3rd ed. (Virginia Beach, VA: The Donning Company Publishers, 2006), 63.
Via Negativa: “Part of (having uncommon sense) is being able to tune out folly, as opposed to recognizing wisdom.” Ibid., 134.
About the Author
ROLF DOBELLI, born in 1966, is a Swiss novelist. This is his first work of nonfiction. He earned his MBA from the University of St. Gallen, Switzerland, and received his PhD for a dissertation in philosophy. He is the founder or co-founder of several companies and communities, including: ZURICH.MINDS, a community of the leading personalities from science, culture, and business; and getAbstract, the world’s largest resource of compressed business literature. Rolf Dobelli lives in Lucerne, Switzerland.
Visit the author’s website: www.rolfdobelli.com.
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Credits
Cover design © Christopher Tobias
Copyright
THE ART OF THINKING CLEARLY. Copyright © 2013 by Rolf Dobelli. Translation copyright © 2013 by Nicky Griffin. All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions. By payment of the required fees, you have been granted the nonexclusive, nontransferable right to access and read the text of this e-book on-screen. No part of this text may be reproduced, transmitted, downloaded, decompiled, reverse-engineered, or stored in or introduced into any information storage and retrieval system, in any form or by any means, whether electronic or mechanical, now known or hereinafter invented, without the express written permission of HarperCollins e-books.
FIRST EDITION
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Dobelli, Rolf.
[Kunst des klaren Denkens. English]
The art of thinking clearly / Rolf Dobelli; translated by Nicky Griffin.—First edition.
p. cm.
Translation of the author’s Die Kunst des klaren Denkens, published by Hanser in 2012.
ISBN: 978-0-06-221968-8
1. Reasoning (Psychology). 2. Errors—Psychological aspects. 3. Decision making. 4. Cognition. I. Title.
BF442.D63 2013
153.4'2—dc23
2013003934
EPUB Edition © May 2013 ISBN: 9780062219701
13 14 15 16 17 OV/RRD 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
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