At the same time, humanity should spread out by starting settlements first on the Moon and then beyond it. The strategy should be inherently positive, which is to say to explore new worlds and settle where we can, to realize our full potential as a species that is an integral part of this Solar System. Exploration is fundamentally important for nourishing the spirit as well as for providing the basis for homesteading new worlds. Spreading out should not be undertaken as an alternative to extinction or suffering in an abominable environment, which drove Osepok away, but as a supremely rewarding adventure in its own right, spiritually, aesthetically, and physically. And asteroids can be an asset as well as a threat and are therefore wonderful, exciting, and potentially profitable places to explore and settle. Besides being dangerous when they get too close, they are an inherently valuable resource, which shows that Antoine de Saint-Exupéry's little prince had it right after all.
The meteor that exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia, as seen in this rare photograph, injured more than 1,400 people and did extensive structural damage.
A view of the meteor before it exploded over Chelyabinsk. The long smoke trail led some in the area to believe it was an errant ballistic missile. (Photo courtesy of Konstantin Kudinov.)
After a long search, a chunk of the Chelyabinsk meteor was found and pulled out of Lake Chebarkul for detailed study. (Photo used by permission of Alexander Firsov for AP Photo.)
The nearly mile-wide Meteor Crater in Arizona, accessed by the long road in the foreground, attracts many tourists who are fascinated by Earth's being the target of a potential Doomsday impactor. As late as 1945, the US Geological Survey did not believe that the crater was made by an impactor because there are no fragments. (They had disintegrated.) Some thought that it is an extinct volcano. (Photo courtesy of Meteor Crater, Northern Arizona, USA.)
A realistic view of the Sentinel infrared telescope's position from which it is supposed to watch for threatening near-Earth objects. The telescope is in its orbit at the far left; the Sun is at the center, followed by Venus and, to the far right, Earth. (Image courtesy of Ball Aerospace and Technologies Corp.)
An overview diagram of the Sentinel infrared telescope's position in a Venus-like orbit from which it is supposed to watch the region around Earth for potentially dangerous asteroids and comets. (Image courtesy of Ball Aerospace and Technologies Corp.)
In a space first, the Japanese spacecraft Hayabusa (peregrine falcon) landed on this asteroid, 25143 Itokawa, in 2005, collected tiny samples, and returned them to Earth. (Photo © Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency [JAXA].)
433 Eros is a 21.4-mile-long near-Earth asteroid that was photographed by the NEAR Shoemaker spacecraft, which landed on it for a close-up inspection. The craters show that 433 Eros has taken its own hits. (Photo from NASA/Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory.)
Washington, DC, the light area within the circle, would have been obliterated by the meteor that exploded over Tunguska, Russia. (Photo courtesy of Ball Aerospace and Technologies Corp.)
The circle shows the area of New York and New Jersey that would have been devastated by the Tunguska blast. Millions would have been killed. (Photo courtesy of Ball Aerospace and Technologies Corp.)
Clark R. Chapman, a senior scientist at the Southwest Research Institute, has been at the forefront of those advocating an active, integrated planetary-defense system. (Photo © Carles Ribas [Ediciones EL PAÍS]. All rights reserved.)
Left: David Morrison, an astrophysicist and the director of the Carl Sagan Center for the Study of Life in the Universe, is a leading specialist in near-Earth objects and began writing NEO News in 1984. (Photo from NASA Ames Research Center.)
Right: Former astronaut Russell L. “Rusty” Schweickart was the lunar-module pilot on the Apollo 9 mission and one of the founders of the B612 Foundation. (Photo courtesy of Russell L. Schweickart.)
Left: Ed Lu was on two space shuttle missions, spent six months on the International Space Station, and then became one of the founders of the B612 Foundation. (Photo from NASA.)
Right: Luis Alvarez, a Nobel Prize–winning physicist (shown here), his son Walter, and two colleagues were the first to theorize that the huge Chicxulub impact crater off Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula was made in a collision with a near-Earth object that ultimately killed off the dinosaurs. (Photo used by permission of AP Photo.)
Bruce Murray and Carl Sagan (seated) and Louis Friedman (standing, left) at the time they signed the papers that formally incorporated the Planetary Society. Harry Ashmore (standing, right), a Pulitizer Prize–winning journalist and their advisor, looks on. (Photo courtesy of the Planetary Society.)
Eugene and Carolyn Shoemaker (pictured) and David Levy were the first to spot the string of comet fragments that were going to strike Jupiter, and they alerted the world in 1994. It was named Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 in their honor. (Photo from USGS Astrogeology Science Center.)
The National Geographic Society produced a special on the asteroid threat. The film included Gene Shoemaker at Meteor Crater in Arizona, which has become a tourist attraction. (Image from Asteroids: Deadly Impact, directed by Eitan Weinreich [Washington, DC: National Geographic Video, 2003].)
This diagram of the Sentinel infrared telescope spacecraft shows its large solar-panel array. The cylinder behind it is the telescope. The box near the bottom holds the electronic system, and the white dish at the bottom is a deep-space antenna. (Image courtesy of Ball Aerospace and Technologies Corp.)
First and foremost, my deep appreciation goes to David Morrison, an astrophysicist and senior scientist at the Astrobiology Institute at NASA's Ames Research Center, who is also a charter member of the small group of highly knowledgeable NEO stalwarts in the international science community. He has shown, by example, how important it is to know about those objects. Furthermore, he read parts of the manuscript and not only made useful suggestions on what material to include but also corrected many errors. There was an expression we had at the New York Times (in a previous life of mine) that is applicable to Dave: he pulled me off the cross. And, obviously, mistakes in what he did not read are mine to bear.
Robert Arentz of Ball Aerospace and Technologies Corp., who served with me on the National Research Council (NRC) panel, has become a friend, a supplier of all manner of material for the book, and a wizened interpreter of developments having to do with asteroids, comets, and other things that go bump in the day and night. He, too, read part of the manuscript for mistakes and made many helpful suggestions. I was and continue to be exceedingly lucky to have him in my corner.
The genesis of this book developed at three planetary-defense conferences held around the country that were conducted by the NRC of the National Academy of Sciences. My presence at those meetings was at the invitation of Dwayne A. Day of the NRC, who invited me to attend as the only nonscientist on the fourteen-member Survey and Detection Panel. Dwayne extended the invitation in the evident hope that I would create a work that captured the spirit and importance of the situation as it was shown by the scientists who shared their findings with us. Given how many first-rate science writers are out there, I was and remain deeply complemented by his having selected me. I hope this book and some other relevant projects justify his decision.
Mariel Bard—the Bard of Amherst—copyedited this book, and that entailed quite a bit more than juggling punctuation marks and indenting paragraphs. Her alert eye spotted several instances of repetition, and she raised scores of excellent questions about phrasing, sources, and statements that were confusing or misleading. She practiced the highest level of her craft and, in doing so, became an invaluable partner in the creation of The Asteroid Threat.
Sean Mulligan, one of the first and best members of what is now the graduate Science, Health and Environmental Reporting Program at New York University, and who is now a professional dynamo and a valued friend, has not only alerted me to news of important “visitors” in the neighborhood but also has been my computer adviser. I am very gr
ateful on both scores.
Neil deGrasse Tyson, the effervescent, boundlessly energetic, and always overcommitted director of the Hayden Planetarium in New York, was very generous with his time in discussing the asteroid threat and the feasibility of using the Moon as an archive and establishing a colony there. The title of his autobiography, The Sky Is Not the Limit, speaks to his vision of where we ought to be headed as well as to his life.
Elizabeth Paul, a reference librarian at the Westport Public Library, tracked down and gave me reviews of Deep Impact and Armageddon, films that figure importantly in why asteroids and comets so fascinate the public. Her help is very much appreciated as well. Robert “Bob” Shapiro (a professor of chemistry at New York University who is no longer here), Steven Wolfe, and I formed the Alliance to Rescue Civilization to archive civilization's record, and, in the process, I got to thinking about planetary defense, which led to this book. Bob had an extraordinary imagination and was endlessly creative. So is Steve, who is also a space enthusiast and an imaginative writer, and who worked for California governor Jerry Brown, another active space proponent; the synergy was obvious and infectious.
CHAPTER 1. CHELYABINSK: RUSSIAN ROULETTE
1. Mayak accident: “Chelyabinsk: The Most Contaminated Spot on the Planet,” wentz.net/radiate/cheyla/ (accessed February 12, 2014).
2. Surayev's snub: “Medal Snub for Russian Cosmonaut Sparks ‘Cosmic Scandal,’” Space Daily, September 7, 2010.
3. The anger in Chelyabinsk: “Meteor Fragments Spark ‘Gold Rush’ in Russia,” Fox News, February 18, 2013.
4. The meteor's characteristics: Matt Smith, “Planet of Sound: Meteor Blast Resonated Around Earth,” CNN, February 27, 2013.
5. The blast and shock wave: Ibid.
6. Children injured; windows destroyed: “Meteorite Hits Russian Urals: Fireball Explosion Wreaks Havoc, up to 1,200 Injured,” RT.com, http://rt.com/news/meteorite-crash-urals-chelyabinsk-283/ (accessed February 12, 2014).
7. Students’ and Frenn's experiences: Ellen Barry and Andrew E. Kramer, “Meteor Explodes, Injuring over 1,000 in Siberia,” New York Times, February 16, 2013.
8. Ms. Borchininova's remark: Andrew E. Kramer, “After Assault from the Heavens, Russians Search for Clues and Count Blessings,” New York Times, February 17, 2013.
9. Ms. Nikolayeva's account: Ibid.
10. Kuznetsov's account: Phil Black and Laura Smith-Spark, “Russia Starts Cleanup after Meteor Strike,” CNN.com, February 19, 2013.
11. Weird occurrences and Popova: Andrew E. Kramer, “In Russia, Ruins and Property Spared by Meteor, Side by Side,” New York Times, February 18, 2013.
12. Yurevich's statement: “Meteorite Hits Russian Urals.”
13. Number of injured and the broken spine: Ibid. Russian sources later reported the number of those who requested medical assistance at about 1,500.
14. Damage to structures in Chelyabinsk: “Meteorite-Caused Emergency Situation Regime over in Chelyabinsk Region,” Russia beyond the Headlines (published by Rossiyskaya Gazeta), Interfax, March 5, 2013.
15. What the rocks are called depends on their distance from Earth. Asteroids, which are also called minor planets or planetoids, are mainly in the Asteroid Belt between Mars and Jupiter, but some strays pass in the vicinity of Earth but are not very close. Meteors are asteroids or other objects that enter Earth's atmosphere and either burn up, vaporize, or explode in a fireball that is called a bolide. They are made of iron or stone and become meteorites if they survive the plunge through the atmosphere.
16. 2012 DA14 close-approach prediction: “JPL Small-Body Database Browser,” NASA/JPL, http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2012DA14;cad=1#cad (accessed February 21, 2014).
17. Hail of bullets: Asteroids: Deadly Impact, National Geographic Video, 2003.
18. Tunguska explosion: Henry Fountain, “Meteor Is Not Siberia's First Brush with Objects Falling from Space,” New York Times, February 15, 2013.
19. Bissell: John Williams, “A Flash in Russian Skies, as Inspiration for Fantasy,” New York Times, February 16, 2013; see also Tom Bissell, “A Comet's Tale: On the Science of Apocalypse,” Harper's, February 2003.
20. Tyson: Clyde Haberman, “To at Least One Earthling, Siberia Meteor Proved That Science Is Vital,” New York Times, March 11, 2013.
21. The Tyson asteroid: Neil deGrasse Tyson, The Sky Is Not the Limit, 108. Asteroid 9930Billburrows was named after the author. More than twenty thousand asteroids have been named after people, places, and things, including 558 Carmen, 588 Achilles, 1566 Icarus, 1569 Evita, 1864 Daedalus, 1930 Lucifer, 2001 Einstein, 3153 Lincoln, 3154 Grant, 3155 Lee, 3767 DiMaggio, 3768 Monroe, 4342 Freud, 7934 Sinatra, 8749 Beatles, 327 Columbia, 736 Harvard, 4523 MIT, 9769 Nautilus, 9770 Discovery, and 9777 Enterprise.
22. Medvedev's and Rogozin's remarks: Peter Fowler, “PM Medvedev Says Russian Meteorite KEF-2013 Shows ‘Entire Planet Vulnerable.’” Newsroom America, February 15, 2013, http://www.newsroomamerica.com/story/347222/pm_medvedev_says_russian_meteorite_kef-2013_shows_entire_planet_vulnerable_.html (accessed February 13, 2014); Howard Amos, “Meteorite Explosion over Chelyabinsk Injures Hundreds,” Guardian, February 15, 2013, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/feb/15/hundreds-injured-meteorite-russian-city-chelyabinsk (accessed February 13, 2014).
23. Theories on the cause of the explosion: Fred Weir, “Was Chelyabinsk Meteor Actually a Meteor? Many Russians Don't Think So,” Christian Science Monitor, February 22, 2013.
24. Hoyle and Wickramasinghe's theory: Fred Hoyle and N. C. Wickramasinghe, Diseases from Space, ch. 1.
25. Yeomans on life in comets: Donald K. Yeomans, Comets, 350.
26. The damage estimate and Pavlovsky: Will Englund, “After the Meteor, Russian Residents Prepare to Clean Up,” WashingtonPost.com, February 16, 2013.
27. The leaders’ response: Kirit Radia, “Russian Meteor: Chelyabinsk Cleaning Up after Meteor Blast,” ABC News, World News, February 16, 2013.
28. Sasha Zarezina and Larisa Briyukova: Andrew E. Kramer, “Russians Wade into the Snow to Seek Treasure from the Sky,” New York Times, February 19, 2013.
29. Selling meteorites: Sergei Loiko, “Rubles from Heaven: Russians Scoop up Meteorite Chunks for Sale,” Los Angeles Times, February 19, 2013.
30. Ads from Yevgeny and others: Ibid.
31. Maxim: Ibid.
32. Cherkova: Ibid.
33. Meteor Disneyland: “‘Meteor Disneyland’? Russian City Looks to Meteor Site's Future,” herocomplex.latimes.com.
34. Cocktail: Meagan Kyla, “Kiss My Asteroid [Drinks with Jack],” February 22, 2013, http://929jackfm.com/kiss-my-asteroid-drinks-with-jack/ (accessed February 13, 2014).
CHAPTER 2. CHICKEN LITTLE WAS RIGHT
1. The prince and the asteroid: Saint-Exupery, The Little Prince, 77.
2. Comets as drama: Shapiro, Origins: A Skeptic's Guide to the Creation of Life on Earth, 235.
3. Life from a comet: Hoyle and Wickramasinghe, Lifecloud: The Origin of Life in the Universe, 134.
4. Diseases from comets: Hoyle and Wickramasinghe, Diseases from Space, 8–9.
5. Shoemaker, “They are bullets”: Asteroids: Deadly Impact, National Geographic Video, 2003.
6. Vredefort crater: Committee to Review Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies, Space Studies Board, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, and National Research Council, Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth-Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies, 11.
7. A changed ballgame: Asteroids: Deadly Impact.
8. Mass hysteria: Ibid.
9. Levy's comment: Ibid.
10. Fragment A's impact: David H. Levy, Impact Jupiter, 151.
11. Impact viewing: Ibid., 153–54.
12. Attack on Jupiter: Comet Shoemaker-Levy Collision with Jupiter,” NASA, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, last modified March 14, 2000, http://www2.jpl.nasa.gov/sl9/ (accessed March 10, 2014); William J. Board, “When Worlds Collide: A Threat t
o the Earth Is a Joke No Longer,” New York Times, August 1, 1994.
13. Moon theories: Ibid., 74–87.
14. Howard Darwin: Dana Mackenzie, The Big Splat; or, How Our Moon Came to Be, 2.
15. See's encyclopedia entry: Encyclopedia Britannica, 1947 edition (revised 14th ed.), vol. 20 of 24, 273–74.
16. Resisting medium: Ibid., 94.
17. See's blatant meanness: Thomas Jefferson Jackson See, Researches on the Evolution of the Stellar Systems, Vol. II, The Capture Theory of Cosmical Evolution.
18. Nation book review: Quoted in “Thomas Jefferson Jackson See,” NationMaster.com, http://www.nationmaster.com/encyclopedia/Thomas-Jefferson-Jackson-See (accessed February 19, 2014).
19. See and Einstein “the fraud”: Mackenzie, Big Splat, 88–95.
20. The three theories: Ibid., 2.
21. Andesite: Walter Alvarez, T. rex and the Crater of Doom, 113.
22. The approach of doom: Ibid., 5.
23. An extreme event: Alvarez, T. Rex and the Crater of Doom, 7.
24. Beyond our comprehension: Ibid.
25. Properties of impactors: Ibid., 7–8.
26. Alvarez impact article: Luis W. Alvarez et al., “Extraterrestrial Cause for the Cretaceous-Tertiary Extinction,” Science, 1095–1108.
27. Arentz: Told to the author.
28. Man on porch: Donald K. Yeomans, Comets: A Chronological History of Observation, Science, Myth, and Folklore, 326–27.
29. Burning trees: Ibid.
30. Tunguska explosion: Ibid.
31. The 90 percent: David Morrison, “Impacts and Evolution: Protecting Earth from Asteroids,” Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, 439.
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