by Michio Kaku
Copyright © 2011 by Michio Kaku
All rights reserved. Published in the United States by Doubleday, a division of Random House, Inc., New York, and in Canada by Random House of Canada Limited, Toronto.
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LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING-IN-PUBLICATION DATA
Kaku, Michio.
Physics of the future : how science will shape human destiny and
our daily lives by the year 2100 Michio Kaku.—1st ed.font>
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
1. Science—Social aspects—Forecasting. 2. Science—History—21st century. I. Title.
Q175.5.K257 2011
303.4830112—dc22
2010026569
eISBN: 978-0-385-53081-1
v3.1
To my loving wife, Shizue,
and my daughters, Michelle and Alyson
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Dedication
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
INTRODUCTION: Predicting the Next 100 Years
FUTURE OF THE COMPUTER: Mind over Matter
FUTURE OF AI: Rise of the Machines
FUTURE OF MEDICINE: Perfection and Beyond
NANOTECHNOLOGY: Everything from Nothing?
FUTURE OF ENERGY: Energy from the Stars
FUTURE OF SPACE TRAVEL: To the Stars
FUTURE OF WEALTH: Winners and Losers
FUTURE OF HUMANITY: Planetary Civilization
A DAY IN THE LIFE IN 2100
NOTES
RECOMMENDED READING
INDEX
ILLUSTRATION CREDITS
About the Author
Other Books by This Author
I would like to thank those individuals who have worked tirelessly to make this book a success. First, I would like to thank my editors, Roger Scholl, who guided so many of my previous books and came up with the idea for a challenging book like this, and also Edward Kastenmeier, who has patiently made countless suggestions and revisions to this book that have greatly strengthened and enhanced its presentation. I would also like to thank Stuart Krichevsky, my agent for so many years, who has always encouraged me to take on newer and more exciting challenges.
And, of course, I would like to thank the more than three hundred scientists I interviewed or had discussions with concerning science. I would like to apologize for dragging a TV camera crew from BBC-TV or the Discovery and Science channels into their laboratories and thrusting a microphone and TV camera in front of their faces. This might have disrupted their research, but I hope that the final product was worth it.
I would like to thank some of these pioneers and trailblazers:
Eric Chivian, Nobel laureate, Center for Health and the Global Environment, Harvard Medical School
Peter Doherty, Nobel laureate, St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital
Gerald Edelman, Nobel laureate, Scripps Research Institute
Murray Gell-Mann, Nobel laureate, Santa Fe Institute and Caltech
Walter Gilbert, Nobel laureate, Harvard University
David Gross, Nobel laureate, Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics
the late Henry Kendall, Nobel laureate, MIT
Leon Lederman, Nobel laureate, Illinois Institute of Technology
Yoichiro Nambu, Nobel laureate, University of Chicago
Henry Pollack, Nobel laureate, University of Michigan
Joseph Rotblat, Nobel laureate, St. Bartholomew’s Hospital
Steven Weinberg, Nobel laureate, University of Texas at Austin
Frank Wilczek, Nobel laureate, MIT
Amir Aczel, author of Uranium Wars
Buzz Aldrin, former NASA astronaut, second man to walk on the moon
Geoff Andersen, research associate, United States Air Force Academy, author of The Telescope
Jay Barbree, NBC news correspondent, coauthor of Moon Shot
John Barrow, physicist, University of Cambridge, author of Impossibility
Marcia Bartusiak, author of Einstein’s Unfinished Symphony
Jim Bell, professor of astronomy, Cornell University
Jeffrey Bennet, author of Beyond UFOs
Bob Berman, astronomer, author of Secrets of the Night Sky
Leslie Biesecker, chief of Genetic Disease Research Branch, National Institutes of Health
Piers Bizony, science writer, author of How to Build Your Own Spaceship
Michael Blaese, former National Institutes of Health scientist
Alex Boese, founder of Museum of Hoaxes
Nick Bostrom, transhumanist, University of Oxford
Lt. Col. Robert Bowman, Institute for Space and Security Studies
Lawrence Brody, chief of the Genome Technology Branch, National Institutes of Health
Rodney Brooks, former director, MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory
Lester Brown, founder of Earth Policy Institute
Michael Brown, professor of astronomy, Caltech
James Canton, founder of Institute for Global Futures, author of The Extreme Future
Arthur Caplan, director, Center for Bioethics, University of Pennsylvania
Fritjof Capra, author of The Science of Leonardo
Sean Carroll, cosmologist, Caltech
Andrew Chaikin, author of A Man on the Moon
Leroy Chiao, former NASA astronaut
George Church, director, Center for Computational Genetics, Harvard Medical School
Thomas Cochran, physicist, Natural Resources Defense Council
Christopher Cokinos, science writer, author of The Fallen Sky
Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health
Vicki Colvin, director of Biological and Environmental Nanotechnology, Rice University
Neil Comins, author of The Hazards of Space Travel
Steve Cook, director of Space Technologies, Dynetics, former NASA spokesperson
Christine Cosgrove, author of Normal at Any Cost
Steve Cousins, president and CEO, Willow Garage
Brian Cox, physicist, University of Manchester, BBC science host
Phillip Coyle, former assistant secretary of defense, U.S. Defense Department
Daniel Crevier, author of AI: The Tumultuous History of the Search for Artificial Intelligence, CEO of Coreco
Ken Croswell, astronomer, author of Magnificent Universe
Steven Cummer, computer science, Duke University
Mark Cutkosky, mechanical engineering, Stanford University
Paul Davies, physicist, author of Superforce
Aubrey de Gray, Chief Science Officer, SENS Foundation
the late Michael Dertouzos, former director, Laboratory for Computer Science, MIT
Jared Diamond, Pulitzer Prize winner, professor of geography, UCLA
Mariette DiChristina, editor in chief, Scientific American
Peter Dilworth, former MIT AI Lab scientist
John Donoghue, creator of BrainGate, Brown University
Ann Druyan, widow of Carl Sagan, Cosmos Studios
Freeman Dyson, emeritus professor of physics, Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton
Jonathan Ellis, physicist, CERN
Daniel Fairbanks, author of Relics of Eden
Timothy Ferris, emeritus professor at the University of California, Berkeley, author of Coming of Age in the Milky Way
Maria Finitzo, filmmaker, Peabody Award winner, Mapping Stem Cell Research
Robert Finkelstein, AI expert
Christopher Flavin, WorldWatch Institute
Louis Friedman, cofounder
, Planetary Society
James Garvin, former NASA chief scientist, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Evalyn Gates, author of Einstein’s Telescope
Jack Geiger, cofounder, Physicians for Social Responsibility
David Gelernter, professor of computer science, Yale University
Neil Gershenfeld, director, Center of Bits and Atoms, MIT
Paul Gilster, author of Centauri Dreams
Rebecca Goldburg, former senior scientist at Environmental Defense Fund, director of Marine Science, Pew Charitable Trust
Don Goldsmith, astronomer, author of The Runaway Universe
Seth Goldstein, professor of computer science, Carnegie Mellon University
David Goodstein, former assistant provost of Caltech, professor of physics
J. Richard Gott III, professor of astrophysical sciences, Princeton University, author of Time Travel in Einstein’s Universe
the late Stephen Jay Gould, biologist, Harvard Lightbridge Corp.
Ambassador Thomas Graham, expert on spy satellites
John Grant, author of Corrupted Science
Eric Green, director of the National Human Genome Research Institute, National Institutes of Health
Ronald Green, author of Babies by Design
Brian Greene, professor of mathematics and physics, Columbia University, author of The Elegant Universe
Alan Guth, professor of physics, MIT, author of The Inflationary Universe
William Hanson, author of The Edge of Medicine
Leonard Hayflick, professor of anatomy, University of California at San Francisco Medical School
Donald Hillebrand, director of Center for Transportation Research, Argonne National Laboratory
Frank von Hipple, physicist, Princeton University
Jeffrey Hoffman, former NASA astronaut, professor of aeronautics and astronautics, MIT
Douglas Hofstadter, Pulitzer Prize winner, author of Gödel, Escher, Bach
John Horgan, Stevens Institute of Technology, author of The End of Science
Jamie Hyneman, host of MythBusters
Chris Impey, professor of astronomy, University of Arizona, author of The Living Cosmos
Robert Irie, former scientist at AI Lab, MIT, Massachusetts General Hospital
P. J. Jacobowitz, PC magazine
Jay Jaroslav, former scientist at MIT AI Lab
Donald Johanson, paleoanthropologist, discoverer of Lucy
George Johnson, science journalist, New York Times
Tom Jones, former NASA astronaut
Steve Kates, astronomer and radio host
Jack Kessler, professor of neurology, director of Feinberg Neuroscience Institute, Northwestern University
Robert Kirshner, astronomer, Harvard University
Kris Koenig, filmmaker and astronomer
Lawrence Krauss, Arizona State University, author of The Physics of Star Trek
Robert Lawrence Kuhn, filmmaker and philosopher, PBS TV series Closer to Truth
Ray Kurzweil, inventor, author of The Age of Spiritual Machines
Robert Lanza, biotechnology, Advanced Cell Technology
Roger Launius, coauthor of Robots in Space
Stan Lee, creator of Marvel Comics and Spider-Man
Michael Lemonick, former senior science editor, Time magazine, Climate Central
Arthur Lerner-Lam, geologist, volcanist, Columbia University
Simon LeVay, author of When Science Goes Wrong
John Lewis, astronomer, University of Arizona
Alan Lightman, MIT, author of Einstein’s Dreams
George Linehan, author of SpaceShipOne
Seth Lloyd, MIT, author of Programming the Universe
Joseph Lykken, physicist, Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory
Pattie Maes, MIT Media Laboratory
Robert Mann, author of Forensic Detective
Michael Paul Mason, author of Head Cases
W. Patrick McCray, author of Keep Watching the Skies!
Glenn McGee, author of The Perfect Baby
James McLurkin, former scientist at MIT AI Laboratory, Rice University
Paul McMillan, director, Spacewatch, University of Arizona
Fulvio Melia, professor of physics and astronomy, University of Arizona
William Meller, author of Evolution Rx
Paul Meltzer, National Institutes of Health
Marvin Minsky, MIT, author of The Society of Mind
Hans Moravec, research professor at Carnegie Mellon University, author of Robot
the late Phillip Morrison, physicist, MIT
Richard Muller, astrophysicist, University of California at Berkeley
David Nahamoo, formerly with IBM Human Language Technology
Christina Neal, volcanist, Alaska Volcano Observatory, U.S. Geological Survey
Michael Novacek, curator, Fossil Mammals, American Museum of Natural History
Michael Oppenheimer, environmentalist, Princeton University
Dean Ornish, clinical professor of medicine, University of California, San Francisco
Peter Palese, professor of microbiology, Mt. Sinai School of Medicine
Charles Pellerin, former NASA official
Sidney Perkowitz, professor of physics, Emory University, author of Hollywood Science
John Pike, director, GlobalSecurity.org
Jena Pincott, author of Do Gentlemen Really Prefer Blondes?
Tomaso Poggio, artificial intelligence, MIT
Correy Powell, editor in chief, Discover magazine
John Powell, founder, JP Aerospace
Richard Preston, author of The Hot Zone and The Demon in the Freezer
Raman Prinja, professor of astrophysics, University College London
David Quammen, science writer, author of The Reluctant Mr. Darwin
Katherine Ramsland, forensic scientist
Lisa Randall, professor of theoretical physics, Harvard University, author of Warped Passages
Sir Martin Rees, professor of cosmology and astrophysics, Cambridge University, author of Before the Beginning
Jeremy Rifkin, founder, Foundation on Economic Trends
David Riquier, director of Corporate Outreach, MIT Media Lab
Jane Rissler, Union of Concerned Scientists
Steven Rosenberg, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health
Paul Saffo, futurist, formerly with Institute for the Future, consulting professor at Stanford University
the late Carl Sagan, Cornell University, author of Cosmos
Nick Sagan, coauthor of You Call This the Future?
Michael Salamon, NASA’s Beyond Einstein program
Adam Savage, host of MythBusters
Peter Schwartz, futurist, cofounder of Global Business Network, author of The Long View
Michael Shermer, founder of the Skeptics Society and Skeptic magazine
Donna Shirley, former manager, NASA Mars Exploration Program
Seth Shostak, SETI Institute
Neil Shubin, professor of organismal biology and anatomy, University of Chicago, author of Your Inner Fish
Paul Shuch, executive director emeritus, SETI League
Peter Singer, author of Wired for War, Brookings Institute
Simon Singh, author of Big Bang
Gary Small, coauthor of iBrain
Paul Spudis, Planetary Geology Program of the NASA Office of Space Science, Solar System Division
Steven Squyres, professor of astronomy, Cornell University
Paul Steinhardt, professor of physics, Princeton University, coauthor of Endless Universe
Gregory Stock, UCLA, author of Redesigning Humans
Richard Stone, The Last Great Impact on Earth, Discover Magazine
Brian Sullivan, formerly with the Hayden Planetarium
Leonard Susskind, professor of physics, Stanford University
Daniel Tammet, autistic savant, author of Born on a Blue Day
Geoffrey Taylor, physicist, University of Melbourne<
br />
the late Ted Taylor, designer of U.S. nuclear warheads
Max Tegmark, physicist, MIT
Alvin Toffler, author of The Third Wave
Patrick Tucker, World Future Society
Admiral Stansfield M. Turner, former Director of Central Intelligence
Chris Turney, University of Exeter, UK, author of Ice, Mud and Blood
Neil deGrasse Tyson, director, Hayden Planetarium
Sesh Velamoor, Foundation for the Future
Robert Wallace, coauthor of Spycraft, former director of CIA’s Office of Technical Services
Kevin Warwick, human cyborgs, University of Reading, UK
Fred Watson, astronomer, author of Stargazer
the late Mark Weiser, Xerox PARC
Alan Weisman, author of The World Without Us
Daniel Werthimer, SETI at Home, University of California at Berkeley
Mike Wessler, former scientist, MIT AI Lab
Arthur Wiggins, author of The Joy of Physics
Anthony Wynshaw-Boris, National Institutes of Health
Carl Zimmer, science writer, author of Evolution
Robert Zimmerman, author of Leaving Earth
Robert Zubrin, founder, Mars Society
Empires of the future will be empires of the mind.
—WINSTON CHURCHILL
When I was a child, two experiences helped to shape the person I am today and spawned two passions that have helped to define my entire life.
First, when I was eight years old, I remember all the teachers buzzing with the latest news that a great scientist had just died. That night, the newspapers printed a picture of his office, with an unfinished manuscript on his desk. The caption read that the greatest scientist of our era could not finish his greatest masterpiece. What, I asked myself, could be so difficult that such a great scientist could not finish it? What could possibly be that complicated and that important? To me, eventually this became more fascinating than any murder mystery, more intriguing than any adventure story. I had to know what was in that unfinished manuscript.
Later, I found out that the name of this scientist was Albert Einstein and the unfinished manuscript was to be his crowning achievement, his attempt to create a “theory of everything,” an equation, perhaps no more than one inch wide, that would unlock the secrets of the universe and perhaps allow him to “read the mind of God.”