One of the recurring themes in The Mandibles consists of elites who insist that the economic collapse is temporary and the economy will soon bounce back as it did after their Stone Age and indeed after the Great Depression. Except in Shriver’s world there is no bounceback; the economy keeps getting worse. Those who cling hardest to recovery chimera end up losing the most. Shriver describes a government plan to eliminate cash in order to crush the black market economy, something Ken Rogoff and Larry Summers endorse today. Some rich Americans survive, but they confine themselves to luxury bunkers prepared before the crisis. Shriver includes a grisly scene in which two of the Mandibles enter one of these bunkers. It turns out that no one killed the rich; they killed each other. Book reviews for The Mandibles were largely positive except for one negative review in The Washington Post, unsurprising since Shriver has D.C. firmly in the crosshairs of her sniper wit.
What Shriver created in The Mandibles is a far more realistic economic scenario than total apocalypse or totalitarian backlash. It’s a world where you can go shopping, but the shelves are bare. It’s a world where you can use money, but the value is like an ice cube melting in your hand. It’s a world where you can have a job, but most don’t. It’s a world where citizens survive not with machine guns but with wits, hustle, and grim persistence.
While The Mandibles has been labeled dystopian, futuristic, and even science fiction, it is actually a realistic portrayal of a postcollapse economy. The day-to-day trials of Shriver’s characters would be familiar to civilians behind the lines in the Civil War or getting by in the Great Depression. Those who assume such scenarios won’t happen again put too much faith in central banks and too little in the study of history.
Most plans for catastrophe will fall apart in the first five minutes of being needed. Washington, D.C., Beltway traffic is bumper to bumper on a good day. The idea that one could evacuate D.C. in an automobile on short notice is absurd. The superrich have their hideaways in New Zealand. Sounds good, but the tycoons have spent more time picking out a location than they have asking if they can even make it to the airport, whether the airport is operating when they get there, where they can refuel their private jets en route, and whether the Kiwis will be waiting at Auckland Airport with troops if they make it that far. The more blue-collar approach of semiautomatic rifles, stacks of ammo, and cases of freeze-dried food won’t fare much better. The bunkers of these wannabe Rambos will be overrun by pop-up militias in minutes, albeit with casualties. A simple device like a bicycle will be more valuable than bullets when the time comes.
This is the point Shriver makes in the climax of her novel. The beleaguered Mandibles decide to leave Brooklyn, where they lately gathered to begin a long march to Gloversville, New York, a small town northwest of Albany in the Adirondack foothills. There a Mandible relative, Jarred, had moved earlier to buy a farm. Jarred developed a survivalist instinct in advance of the meltdown’s worst phase, yet his farm was not a bunker, it was a working farm with fruit trees, vegetables, and livestock. He let his extended family know that if they could make it to the farm, he had plenty of need for help and would share the food and shelter. The Brooklyn Mandibles make the trek and, in the end, survive.
The key to survival in a true collapse is not a bunker, rifle, or private jet. The key is community. You will not survive on your own, yet you might just survive in a community that is prepared to share food, fresh water, labor, and artisanal skills. Your skill as a carpenter, dentist, or field hand might be richly rewarded with corn, cheese, milk, and bacon. Cities will break down faster than surrounding countryside because of overreliance on electricity and transportation networks, and their vulnerability to riots, looting, and violent crime. Shriver describes a Brooklyn housejacking that is scary and surreally funny at the same time.
Yet long after cities become uninhabitable, the countryside can function relatively smoothly. This is not the result of weapons, but the result of community. Neighbors will look out for neighbors. Those in need will hire those with skills. Output will stabilize and prices will be steady. The way to envision this is not the barren landscape of McCarthy’s The Road, but small-town life circa 1901 in Grover’s Corners, New Hampshire, as portrayed in the play Our Town by Thornton Wilder. For George Gibbs, the boy next door in Our Town, as for Jarred Mandible in The Mandibles, a farm is more important than a college degree.
What about money and wealth preservation? Both Grover’s Corners in 1901 and Shriver’s Gloversville in 2029 had money. In Grover’s Corners, it was silver coins or gold-backed banknotes. In Gloversville, it was gold and silver bullion, gold-backed notes, or simple barter. What was not money was what we call money today—fiat currency printed by the Fed. In both places, wealth came down to tangible assets and your skills as a laborer, artist, or entrepreneur. Another form of wealth that carries no weight in Grover’s Corners or Gloversville is stocks and bonds. This reality is nicely captured by Shriver in a rant by a professor whose portfolio was wiped out in the crash:
All those pension funds with pie charts of 62 percent equities and 27 percent bonds ….4 All the investment accounts with their contrasting strategies of “growth” or “income.” … The solicitous questionnaires from Morgan Stanley about the degree of “risk” you’ll tolerate—questionnaires that tend to play down the fact there’s nowhere on the form to check “zero.” … The “large cap” versus “small cap” versus “emerging markets.” … The delicate tweaking. Maybe we should move a little more into the energy sector and de-emphasize pharma …. Well, all of those accounts have been flattened. The strategies didn’t matter.
In other words, hard assets and hard work are the only stores of value. Stocks and bonds will be worthless because the companies will collapse, the debtors will default, and the nominal value of whatever is left will be wiped out by inflation. The game may start over, but existing players are wiped off the board.
This is not to say that one should not hold stocks and bonds today alongside hard assets. The point is to stay alert and be nimble as conditions deteriorate and risks rise. The time will come in the not distant future when quick decisions will need to be made first to pivot from securities to cash and later from cash to gold … and maybe a farm.
Shriver ends The Mandibles with a revelation by the then oldest member of the family, who rescues the clan with a gift of the one form of money that survived the chaos against all odds, hidden in a box. I won’t ruin the surprise by saying what’s in the box. But, if you know my writings, you can probably guess.
Acknowledgments
Aftermath may not be my last book ever, yet it is the last volume in an international monetary quartet that began with Currency Wars (2011) and continued through The Death of Money (2014) and The Road to Ruin (2016), an eight-year, four-book project in all. The support, encouragement, and patience of my agent, publisher, and editors who were involved for part or all of this personal odyssey were indispensible. My appreciation is commensurate with their great generosity of spirit.
My agent, Melissa Flashman, was the first to see the potential for writings on international economics with a popular flair that avoided the textbook style of most economics books. The entire project would not exist without her. Mel’s optimism for Aftermath was infectious when my progress was slowed in 2018 by recovery from an injury. She kept me going until we crossed the finish line. She has my heartfelt thanks and deep admiration.
My publisher, Adrian Zackheim, founder of the Portfolio imprint at Penguin Random House, is a vital source of support. Writers work alone so much they can lose sight of the network of editors, publicists, and production staff who stand behind their work. Adrian’s presence at the head of the team insured the team was working with the highest standards to turn a manuscript into a finished work shared with readers. Aftermath was a longer book that took longer to write than my others. Adrian’s support was unwavering. Deputy publisher Will Weisser, who works side by side with Adrian, kept the publication process moving smoothly. Than
k you, Adrian and Will.
As a writer of books, articles, and op-eds, I can say categorically I’ve rarely written a piece that was not improved by great editors. I’ve been fortunate to work for years with Niki Papadopoulos, editorial director of Portfolio, who applied her considerable talents to Aftermath with wit and a smart reader’s perspective. If chapter openings are inviting, it’s because Niki found gems buried in the text (a bad habit left over from my legal training) and urged me to move them to the front so a reader could engage immediately. Niki was also on the receiving end of my many missed deadline missives, which she handled with understanding and good cheer. Thanks, Niki, and I promise I’ll do better next time. Thank you also to Rebecca Shoenthal, part of Niki’s editorial team; Stefanie Brody, who handles the publicity duties with diligence and creativity; and copyeditor Jane Cavolina.
My freelance editor, Will Rickards, specializes in spotting my flaws as a writer and fixing them in felicitous ways. The result is a book that is more fluid and offers a better experience for the reader. Will has edited all of my books and is an integral part of the team. Thanks, Will.
Book publicity and marketing begin even before the book is finished. Authors don’t write just to put a book on the shelf; it’s critical to connect with readers, get the message out, and receive reader and reviewer feedback. The book tour begins while the writer’s finishing touches are still being applied. I work daily with my business manager and media adviser, Ali Rickards, to discuss book content and connective threads so we can do the best possible job of bringing the book to the reader. Thanks, Ali, for keeping us ahead of the curve.
I am fortunate to participate in a wide network of correspondents on Twitter, email, and other channels, who continually offer ideas and insights that challenge conventional wisdom and settled opinion. Thank you to Larry White, Art Santelli, Peter Coyne, Dan Amoss, Ronni Stöferle, Mark Valek, Chris Whalen, Chris Blasi, “TraderStef,” Velina Tchakarova, Robert and Kim Kiyosaki, Steven “Sarge” Guilfoyle, Dave Collum, Nomi Prins, Byron King, and Terry Rickard. Please keep those notes, links, and messages headed my way.
The paradox of writing is that it’s a solitary activity in search of a mass audience. The bridge between the individual and the group is the small circle of family and friends who support one’s work every day on its way to the agora. My writing would not be possible without the continuous support and feedback of my loving wife of forty years, Ann, and our growing family—our son Scott and his wife, Dominique, and their four children Thomas, Sam, James and Pippa; our daughter, Ali; our son Will and his wife, Abby. And the expanded family photo would not be complete without the pups, Ollie and Reese, and kitten Pliny. I’m beyond grateful for all of your support; I couldn’t do this without you. I love you all.
As for any mistakes in the book, they’re all mine.
Notes
INTRODUCTION
1 “In their comments regarding financial markets”: “Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, October 31–November 1, 2017,” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, accessed January 7, 2019, www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20171122a.htm.
2 “a chronic condition of sub-normal activity”: John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money (New York: Harvest/Harcourt Inc., 1964), 249.
3 Today Truman is ranked by historians: “Presidential Historians Survey 2017,” C-SPAN, accessed January 7, 2019, www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2017/?page=participants.
4 “In Helsinki in 1975”: Michael Kimmage, “The Surprising Promise of the Trump-Putin Summit,” Foreign Affairs, July 11, 2018, accessed January 7, 2019, www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2018-07-11/surprising-promise-trump-putin-summit.
CHAPTER ONE: SCATTERGOODS
1 “From November 1918 down to the present day”: Adam Tooze, The Deluge: The Great War, America and the Remaking of the Global Order, 1916–1931 (New York: Penguin Books, 2014), 418.
2 “the best museum”: Transcript of interview with Michael Hayden on Meet the Press, March 30, 2008, accessed January 7, 2019, www.cia.gov/news-information/press-releases-statements/press-release-archive-2008/transcript-of-director-haydens-interview-on-meet-the-press.html.
3 As Giustra put it: Peter Schweizer, Clinton Cash: The Untold Story of How and Why Foreign Governments and Businesses Helped Make Bill and Hillary Rich (New York: Harper, 2016), 24.
4 publication of the book Clinton Cash: Schweizer, Clinton Cash.
5 the case of William D. Campbell: Joel Schectman, “Exclusive: Secret Witness in Senate Clinton Probe Is Ex-Lobbyist for Russian Firm,” Reuters, November 17, 2017, accessed January 7, 2019, www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-clinton-informant-exclusive/exclusive-secret-witness-in-senate-clinton-probe-is-ex-lobbyist-for-russian-firm-idUSKBN1DG1SB.
6 Roosevelt supported tariffs in his race: Patricia O’Toole, “The War of 1912,” Time, July 3, 2006, accessed January 7, 2019, content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,1207791,00.html.
7 Roosevelt wrote that this kind: Arthur Lang and Lila Weinberg, eds., The Muckrakers (Chicago: University of Illinois Press, 2001), 59.
8 Roosevelt stormed out: O’Toole, “The War of 1912.”
9 One of the main planks: Theodore Roosevelt, An Autobiography (New York, Macmillan, 1913), 625.
10 Reuters reported a decision by CFIUS: Koh Gui Qing and Greg Roumelitois, “Exclusive: U.S. Puts HNA Deals on Ice Until It Gets Ownership Info—Source,” Reuters, January 18, 2018, accessed January 8, 2019, www.reuters.com/article/us-hna-cfius-exclusive/exclusive-u-s-puts-hna-deals-on-ice-until-it-gets-ownership-info-source-idUSKBN1F80AC.
CHAPTER TWO: PUTTING OUT FIRE WITH GASOLINE
1 “It appears to have been”: David Hume, Selected Essays (New York: Oxford University Press, 2008), 203.
2 In general, the United States borrowed: See Robert E. Kelly, The National Debt of the United States, 1941 to 2008, Second Edition (Jefferson, NC: McFarland & Company, 2008).
3 At the Republican nominating convention: Philip Klein, “How George H. W. Bush’s Broken ‘No New Taxes’ Pledge Changed American Politics and Policy Forever,” Washington Examiner, December 1, 2018, accessed January 8, 2019, www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/how-george-h-w-bushs-broken-no-new-taxes-pledge-changed-american-politics-and-policy-forever.
4 However, he lost the support: See Howard Kurz, “The Passion of the New York Post,” The Washington Post, March 28, 1993, accessed January 8, 2019, www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/1993/03/28/the-passion-of-the-new-york-post/9b341497-e4eb-46c4-9883-bc119cb818e7/?utm_term=.b3f4c2b11c2b.
5 Clinton’s closest political adviser: Robert Burgess, “The Daily Prophet: Carville Was Right About the Bond Market,” Bloomberg BusinessWeek, January 29, 2018, accessed January 8, 2019, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-29/the-daily-prophet-carville-was-right-about-the-bond-market-jd0q9r1w.
CHAPTER THREE: FIND THE COST OF FREEDOM
1 “It is much easier”: Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011), 3.
2 Their most influential contribution: Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein, Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness, Revised and Expanded Edition (New York: Penguin Books, 2009).
3 his Ph.D. thesis: Richard Thaler and Sherwin Rosen, “The Value of Saving a Life: Evidence from the Labor Market,” in Nestor E. Terleckyj, ed., Household Production and Consumption (Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1976), 265–302, accessed January 8, 2019, www.nber.org/chapters/c3964.pdf.
4 These landmark experiments: See Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky, eds., Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1982), and Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, eds., Choices, Values, and Frames (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2000).
5 As Kahneman wrote: Daniel Kahneman, “Don’t Blink! The Hazards of Confidence,” The New York Times Magazine, October 19, 2011, accessed January 8, 201
9, www.nytimes.com/2011/10/23/magazine/dont-blink-the-hazards-of-confidence.html.
6 This is revealed in their book: Thaler and Sunstein, Nudge, 13.
7 “Decision makers do not make”: Richard H. Thaler, Cass R. Sunstein, and John P. Balz, “Choice Architecture,” Social Science Research Network, April 2, 2010, accessed January 8, 2019, papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1583509.
8 They write, “If people are”: Thaler and Sunstein, Nudge, 33.
9 With reference to their book title: Thaler and Sunstein, Nudge, 6.
10 They subscribe to a process: Thaler and Sunstein, Nudge, 74, footnote.
11 This is not that difficult: Thaler and Sunstein, Nudge, 53.
12 With reference to framing: Thaler and Sunstein, Nudge, 37.
13 They advise, “If you want”: Thaler and Sunstein, Nudge, 69.
14 The authors claim that: Thaler and Sunstein, Nudge, 5.
15 The patient nearly died: See Chris Clearfield and András Tilcsik, Meltdown: Why Our Systems Fail and What We Can Do About It (New York: Penguin Press, 2018), 85.
16 “When Liu Hu recently tried”: Ben Tracy, “China Assigns Every Citizen A ‘Social Credit Score’ to Identify Who Is and Isn’t Trustworthy,” CBS New York, April 24, 2018, accessed January 8, 2019, newyork.cbslocal.com/2018/04/24/china-assigns-every-citizen-a-social-credit-score-to-identify-who-is-and-isnt-trustworthy.
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