Aftermath

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Aftermath Page 36

by James Rickards


  recessions, 9, 66–67, 84–86

  Reinhart, Carmen, 10, 78, 156, 158–62, 174, 187–88, 282, 285

  Republican Party, 56, 64, 68–70, 72, 75–76, 79–80

  Revelation, 18–19

  Revolutionary War, 58, 61

  Ricardo, David, 48

  Riefenstahl, Leni, 117

  Riksbank, Sveriges, 192

  risk: aversion to, 93–94, 110, 132, 253; modeling, 254; risk-free assets, 124, 128–29; risk-free rate, 128; risk management, 143, 256–57; risk parity, 141–44, 146–47, 152; risk-taking behavior, 174; risky occupations, 90–91

  The Road (McCarthy), 291

  The Road to Ruin (Rickards), 18, 251, 254

  Robinson, Joan, 164

  Rogoff, Kenneth, 10, 78, 156–63, 174, 187–88, 282, 285, 293

  “The Role of the State and the Hierarchy of Money” (Kelton), 167

  Roman Republic, 180

  Romer, Christina, 73

  Roosevelt, Franklin D.: and Bernanke’s background, 5; and context of current U.S. debt, 69; and employment rates, 179; and global monetary reset proposal, 199; and gold confiscation, 17, 292; and history of U.S. debt, 61–63; and presidential rankings, 15; and PSE/GBI proposals, 187; and Social Security, 180

  Roosevelt, Theodore, 15, 22, 45–46

  Rove, Karl, 115

  Rubin, Bob, 70, 272

  runs on banks, 214, 281

  Rushkoff, Douglas, 243–44

  Russia: and acquisition of gold, 248, 282; and Cold War espionage, 26; and cryptocurrencies, 206–8; debt, 50; and emerging-market debt crises, 272–74; financial war games, 31; and investing strategies for gold-backed currencies, 220; and investing strategies for mercantilist world, 53; and the Malaysia Plan, 214; Rosatom agency, 42, 44; Russian Empire, 194; U.S. election interference, 115–16, 286

  Sachs, Jeffrey, 22

  Samuelson, Paul, 163

  Sanders, Bernie, 82, 166, 185, 187

  Sand Hill Road (Silicon Valley), 249–50

  Saudi Arabia, 208, 275

  savings rates, 9

  scaling metrics and limits, 153, 223, 224–32, 254

  Scheidel, Walter, 241–42, 249

  Schumer, Chuck, 36

  Schweitzer, Peter, 43

  Science and the Modern World (Whitehead), 279

  Scylla and Charybdis metaphor, 1–2, 7, 11–12, 14, 18

  Second Bank of the United States, 59

  Second World War, 60, 63, 162, 194–95, 211, 223, 289

  Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), 259–60

  serial correlation, 260

  Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), 213

  Shelton, Judy, 74, 191, 199

  Sheng, Andrew, 263

  Shiller, Robert, 137–38

  Shriver, Lionel, 279, 292–96

  Silicon Valley, 249–50, 286–87

  Simon, William, 271

  Singapore, 217, 272, 286

  Singularity University, 250

  skewness, 129, 133, 135

  Skidelsky, Robert, 160, 161

  Slovic, Paul, 92

  smart beta, 143, 144

  Smith, Adam, 167

  Smithsonian Agreement, 195–96

  social credit scores, 116

  social disorder, 161, 243

  social engineering, 26, 121

  social media and networks, 115, 240–41

  Social Security, 62, 72, 78, 180, 183

  Society in Focus (Thompson, Thompson, and Hickey), 233

  soft-power globalism, 22

  Solidarity, 16

  Soros, George, 214, 273

  South Africa, 273–75

  South Asian minitigers, 272

  South Korea, 214, 217, 272, 276, 285–86

  South Sea Bubble, 147

  sovereign debt, 65, 159, 274–75, 288

  sovereign wealth funds, 39, 83, 236–37

  Soviet Union, 10, 67, 194

  S&P 500, 134

  Spain, 52, 112

  Spanish-American War, 60

  S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, 138, 288

  special drawing rights (SDRs): and cryptocurrencies, 207–9; and emerging-market debt crises, 275; and global monetary reset proposal, 201–2, 202–6; and gold standard without gold, 213, 219; and investing strategies for gold-backed currencies, 220; and the Malaysia Plan, 219; and SDR/GOLD peg, 209–13

  “starve-the-beast” approach, 66, 68–69, 71–72, 74

  The State Theory of Money (Knapp), 167

  Stiglitz, Joseph, 160, 161

  stimulus spending, 164. See also Keynesian economics

  Stockman, David, 56

  stock market bubbles, 2, 13, 50

  stop-loss limits, 131–32

  Strategic Defense Initiative (“Star Wars”), 67

  Strauss-Kahn, Dominique, 203

  Stress Test (Geithner), 204–5

  stress tests, 231, 256

  structural limits, 223–32

  The Structure of Social Stratification in the United States (Beeghley), 232–33

  student loan debt, 9, 79–82, 137, 238, 241–42, 282

  subprime lending crisis, 81, 236

  subsidies, 49, 265

  Summers, Larry, 73, 164, 187, 293

  The Sun Also Rises (Hemingway), 279–80

  Sunstein, Cass R., 90–91, 95–103, 105, 107–8, 109–11, 113–17, 118–20

  supply substitution, 44

  Swiss National Bank, 149–50

  Syria, 35, 276

  systemic risk and collapse, 243, 257

  Taft, William Howard, 61

  Taiwan, 49, 217, 272

  Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, 49

  Tanzania, 44

  tariffs, 21–22, 46, 49–50, 52–53, 266–68, 285

  taxation and tax policy: and behavioral manipulation, 99, 101, 107–11, 116, 121–22; and chartalism theory of money, 166–68; and confidence in dollars, 83–84; and congressional control of budget, 79–80; rates, 119, 170; tax cuts, 9, 10, 66, 68, 76–77, 79, 245, 282; tax deferrals, 107; and wealth inequality, 235, 239–40

  Tcherneva, Pavlina R., 177–78, 185–86

  technical recessions, 14, 62

  technology regulation, 284, 286–87

  tender laws, 167

  Tenet, George, 28

  Tequila crisis, 272

  terminal units, 226

  Texas annexation, 59–60

  Thailand, 214, 272

  Thaler, Richard H., 90–91, 95–103, 105, 107–11, 113–17, 118–20

  Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kahneman), 87

  Thompson, Mica, 233

  Thompson, William, 233

  Tillerson, Rex, 50

  Tobey, Charles, 199

  Tooze, Adam, 21

  Toronto Stock Exchange, 41

  trade deficits, 21, 48–49, 262, 264, 267, 282

  trade negotiations, 264–68

  trade surpluses, 49–50, 52–53, 268

  trade wars, 9, 11, 206, 261–63, 284–85

  trailing stops, 131–32

  Treaty of Versailles, 155, 193

  Trojan War, 7

  Truman, Harry S., 14–15, 63, 66, 69, 171

  Trump, Donald: and context of current U.S. debt, 74–79; and global monetary reset proposal, 197, 205; and history of U.S. debt, 58; and investing strategies for mercantilist world, 53; and nationalism/globalism dichotomy, 45–48; and PSE/GBI proposals, 185, 187; and tax cuts, 9–10; trade negotiations with China, 262, 264–66, 285–86; and U.S. budget deficits, 56; and U.S. economic slowdown scenarios, 282, 284–86; and U.S. wealth gap, 245

  Tulip Mania Bubble, 147

  Turkey, 13, 220, 246, 273–75, 282, 292

  turnover of money, 5, 173

  Tversky, Amos, 92–93, 95, 118–19

  Ukraine, 274–75, 276

  United Arab Emirates (UAE), 35

  United Kingdom (UK), 147, 149–50, 193–95, 212

  United Nations (UN), 45, 48

  United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference, 194–95

  United States Coast
Guard Intelligence, 35–37

  University of Chicago, 49, 90–91, 124, 164

  Untermeyer, Samuel, 219

  Uranium One deal, 40–45

  U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 176

  U.S. Congress: and budget deficit, 13; congressional budgetary politics, 79–82; control of budget, 79–82; and DP World scandal, 37; and history of U.S. debt, 62, 63; and investing strategies for gold-backed currencies, 219; and modern schools of economic thought, 173; and neo-Keynesian consensus, 164; and politics of legislative process, 287; and Trump tax cuts, 282; and U.S. wealth gap, 245

  U.S. Constitution, 58

  U.S. Department of Defense, 39

  U.S. Department of Homeland Security, 43

  U.S. Department of Justice, 43

  U.S. Department of State, 27

  U.S. Department of the Treasury: and 2008 financial crisis, 236; and congressional control of budget, 81–82; and Fed rate policies, 9; and flash crash of 2014, 148–49; gold reserves, 171, 247; and history of U.S. debt, 58; and investing strategies for low growth periods, 85; and modern schools of economic thought, 165–66; and national security issues, 35; and private gold ownership, 17; and quantitative easing, 4; and SDR/GOLD peg, 211; spending, 170; and Uranium One scandal, 40; and war financing, 61. See also U.S. Treasury securities

  U.S. Senate Budget Committee, 166

  U.S. Steel, 53

  U.S. Treasury securities, 5, 7, 76, 128–29, 146, 166, 169, 189

  utilities, 85, 189

  utility theory, 92

  Utopia (More), 179–80

  value at risk (VaR), 106, 143–44, 256

  value investing, 150

  “The Value of Saving a Life” (Thaler), 90

  Van Buren, Martin, 59

  Vanderborght, Yannick, 180–81, 184

  Van Parijs, Philippe, 180–82, 184

  velocity of money, 5, 84, 173, 177, 188

  Venezuela, 274–76

  venture capital, 154

  Vietnam War, 15, 46, 64, 171

  volatility, 128, 247, 284

  Volcker, Paul, 64, 67, 196

  Wachter, Bob, 104

  War of 1812, 59, 60, 61

  War on Terror, 71, 72

  Warren, Elizabeth, 187

  Washington, George, 47, 64

  Washington monetary conference, 195, 197, 199

  wealth inequality, 163, 178, 232–46, 248

  wealth management, 135, 239, 289

  The Wealth of Nations (Smith), 167

  West, Geoffrey, 223, 225–30

  West Germany, 191–92

  “What Would Happen If We Were All Passive Investors?” (Frigon), 123

  White, Harry Dexter, 195, 199

  Whitehead, Alfred North, 279

  Wilder, Thornton, 294–95

  Wilson, Woodrow, 22, 46, 61

  World Bank, 203

  World Government Summit, 181

  World Trade Organization (WTO), 2–3, 265

  World Wide Web, 290

  Wray, L. Randall, 185

  Wriston, Walter, 254–55, 271

  Xi Jinping, 191

  Yellen, Janet, 4, 7, 136, 151

  Yemen, 276

  Zaire (Congo), 271

  zero-interest-rate policy, 4, 6, 136

  Zimbabwe, 172

  Zuckerburg, Mark, 115, 181–82, 240

  Zurich, Switzerland, 112

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  First published in Great Britain by Penguin Business 2019

  Copyright © James Rickards, 2019

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