by Brad Thor
“On the Internet, armies of trolls and bots repeat the lies. They attack anyone with a pro-NATO stance. They put out fake news stories to amplify their message, to appear like they are part of a broad international movement. Their goal is to throw NATO into chaos and to cause the citizens of its member countries to question the organization’s ultimate value.”
She was stunned. “But to what end?” she asked.
“To prevent NATO from effectively responding to an invasion.”
“By whom?”
Harvath took a long pause before responding. “Russia.”
Jasinski couldn’t believe it. “You’re telling me Russia is behind the attacks on our diplomats?”
Harvath nodded.
“And the attempted sabotage of American military equipment in Norway?”
He nodded again.
“How can you be so sure?”
He looked at her. “Because I personally put the bag over the head of the Russian embassy official who provided this information.”
CHAPTER 15
* * *
“Wait,” she said. “You kidnapped a Russian embassy official?”
“Technically, he was Russian Military Intelligence.”
“GRU?” she asked, using the popular acronym for the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Army, Russia’s largest and most secretive foreign intelligence service.
He nodded once more. “Colonel Viktor Sergun. He was operating as Russia’s military attaché to Germany, out of their embassy in Berlin.”
“And you just snatched him off the street?”
“No. From his apartment.”
“I can’t believe I’m hearing this.”
“Believe it.”
Jasinski shook her head. “There’s no way NATO condoned something like that.”
“I wasn’t working for NATO at the time,” he stated.
“Then whom were you working for?”
“I’m not at liberty to say.”
Jasinski shook her head again. He was exasperating—all the subterfuge, all the double-speak. “I’m going to go out on a limb and assume it was for the United States. I’m going to go even further out on that same limb and assume it probably involved more consulting, right?” She drew the word “consulting” out as if it was some sort of slur.
Harvath let her get it out of her system. He knew what was in her file. He knew she hated the Russians just as much as he did, if not more. She also believed in the rule of law—as did he. But she wasn’t yet at the point where she was willing to bend one to beat the other.
“By the way,” she continued, “what does consulting even mean? That the law doesn’t apply to you? That you can do whatever you want, wherever you want, whenever you want—all in the name of winning? Is that what consulting is?”
He waited, to make sure she was finished, and then asked, “Do you remember the bombings in Turkey a little while ago—one of which killed the U.S. Secretary of Defense, along with several members of his staff as well as his protection detail? Or the female suicide bomber who hopped the fence and detonated at the entrance to the White House?”
“Of course.”
“Those were Sergun. He trained and dispatched the terrorists responsible. There were other attacks on Americans as well. Suffice it to say, we felt justified in grabbing him.”
“Where is he now?”
“In a very deep, very dark hole.”
“From which, of course, he’s not free to leave,” she commented.
“That’s the problem with holes,” Harvath remarked. “Some are so deep that you can’t get out of them.”
Jasinski paused. Her head was spinning. She didn’t know what to say. He was all but admitting that the United States was still running its rendition program—a program globally condemned and one that the U.S.A. had long since claimed to have shut down.
She had several questions, but she wasn’t sure she wanted the answers. Fuck, she thought. Why had she agreed to this assignment? Harvath could not only tank her career, he could also land her in prison. No one could just flout international laws the way he was.
“I’m not comfortable with this,” she said.
“Well you need to get comfortable,” he replied, “because this is the way it is, Monika. We fight here, on these terms, right now, or the entire continent of Europe becomes a battlefield. Poland, Germany, France, all of it.”
“What are you talking about?”
Harvath reached for the tiny copper kettle Nicholas had brought out at the end of the meal and poured himself a strong cup of Turkish coffee.
The more time he spent with Monika, the more he liked her. She was the next wave. She would help steer her country and NATO going forward. She just didn’t know it yet. Soon, he hoped, she would. He just needed more time to get her there.
“We interrogated Viktor Sergun for months,” said Harvath. “He had been involved in a lot of different things during his career with the GRU. One of the more interesting things we learned was a rumor he had overheard at headquarters in Moscow.”
“A rumor about what?” she asked.
“Russia’s plan to invade the Baltics.”
She was visibly taken aback. He was talking about Poland’s neighbors. “The Baltics?” she replied. “When?”
“We don’t know,” he stated, taking a sip of coffee.
“What about how they plan to invade?”
“We don’t know that either.”
“What the hell do you know, then?” she exclaimed, exasperated.
Harvath focused on what, at the moment, he thought she should know. “According to Sergun, the GRU was charged with paving the way for the invasion. In addition to a full-blown propaganda campaign, they had activated what the old-time Soviets called “useful idiots”—disenfranchised nationals in NATO countries with certain political and worldviews—who were susceptible to influence.
“They based the PRF on the Marxist-Leninist terror groups of the 1970s—similar to the Red Brigades. Once promising individuals were spotted and assessed, they were recruited and indoctrinated. Then they were brought to Russia and trained in paramilitary tactics—weapons, explosives, and guerilla warfare. After that, they were sent home and told to await further instructions.
“Sergun didn’t have all the details, but he warned that once attacks on NATO personnel, equipment, or installations started happening by the so-called PRF, that was our sign that Russia was preparing to move on the Baltics.”
“So we basically know the PRF is a distraction. Is that it? We have no clue where they’ll strike next or when, and no timetable for the Russian invasion of the Baltics?”
Harvath nodded.
Jasinski dropped her napkin down on the table and stood. Pacing, she tried to figure it all out.
Nicholas cleared the dishes as Harvath watched her. He was pleased to see her so worked up, so passionate. If she could control that, channel it, she might just exceed his expectations.
It took Jasinski a moment to process everything. Finally, she turned and asked, “How did you know about Norway?”
“The equipment we keep hidden in those caves needs to be serviced,” he replied. “As part of our agreement with Norway, we hire Norwegians to do it. Whoever works in the caves has to have a background check. And because of the importance of that equipment, we routinely review the personnel files, as do our counterparts in Norwegian intelligence.
“Two weeks ago, there was a red flag and an investigation was opened. That investigation uncovered a plot to bomb the caves and destroy the equipment. When we learned that the saboteurs were all going to be at the cabin, the decision was made to move in and capture them. Obviously, everyone wishes there had been more time for reconnaissance.”
“Obviously,” said Jasinski. “What’s also obvious is that you took Sergun’s rumor seriously.”
“Only when the attack in Lisbon happened, then our antennas went up. Then once the attack in Madrid took place,
we had a high level of confidence that we knew what was happening.”
“A confidence that you never shared with NATO. In fact, you didn’t do anything until your equipment was targeted.”
“Wrong,” corrected Harvath. “We looped in the Supreme Allied Commander from the start.”
That was a piece of the puzzle she hadn’t been aware of. “Then why didn’t he do something?”
“Communiqués were sent to all NATO personnel after the first attack. Everyone was warned. You know that.”
“But the communiqués didn’t contain all of the information. I saw them. None of us knew what you knew.”
Harvath shook his head. “It wouldn’t have made a difference.”
“You don’t know that,” she pushed back.
Harvath could see the deaths weighing on her.
“Maybe the diplomats wouldn’t have been able to do anything with it,” she pressed, “but on the intelligence side, it could have helped the investigation. Maybe I could have done something with it.”
“There’s nothing you could have done.”
“You don’t know that.”
“Maybe. But we couldn’t risk it.”
“Why not?”
“Because NATO is shot through with Russian spies,” said Harvath. “It has been since the beginning. That’s its greatest weakness. It’s like Swiss fucking cheese. For every Russian you uncover, there are two more hiding somewhere else. We couldn’t risk their learning what we know.”
Monika looked at him defiantly. “How do you know I’m not a spy?” she demanded.
“To be honest, I don’t.”
She glared at him. “Then why am I here?”
It was a fair question, but one that he wasn’t going to answer—at least not fully, and certainly not yet. “Because the powers that be want my team working with someone from SHAPE,” he said. “And that someone is you.”
“What powers that be? The Defense Intelligence Agency? The Central Intelligence Agency? Who do you work for? And don’t tell me again that you were sent by SACT. You don’t work for NATO. And him,” she added, pointing at Nicholas. “He definitely doesn’t work for NATO.”
Though Harvath had no idea why, he glanced at his little friend. For his part, Nicholas simply shrugged as he set down three dessert plates, each with a piece of Makowiec—a traditional Polish poppy seed pastry cake, normally served at the holidays. He knew well enough to stay out of this. Harvath was on his own.
“Our job is to represent the interests of the United States government,” Harvath stated.
“So which interests would those be?” she asked.
He thought for a moment. “Anything related to the North Atlantic Treaty.”
He was still lying. She could sense it and pressed further. “What’s your objective?”
This time, there wasn’t a pause. Harvath replied immediately. “Per the treaty, to promote stability and well-being in the North Atlantic area.”
“How, precisely?”
“By doing everything in our power to prevent an Article 5,” he stated. “To make absolutely certain that the United States and its armed forces aren’t dragged into war, any war—no matter what it takes.”
At that moment, everything clicked for her.
CHAPTER 16
* * *
Jasinski was intimately familiar with Article 5. She could practically recite it by heart. It was the cornerstone of the NATO treaty:
The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
She had been wrong about Harvath and his involvement. This wasn’t simply about American military equipment. This was about the American military.
Out of twenty-nine NATO countries, only six—the United States, the United Kingdom, Greece, Romania, Poland, and Estonia—were annually expending their required 2 percent of GDP on defense.
In light of what she now knew about Russia, it was no wonder the United States had been so angry about the other twenty-three members’ not living up to their military spending agreements. That went double for Lithuania and Latvia, two of the three Baltic countries, which were sitting right on Russia’s doorstep.
America’s debt was in the tens of trillions of dollars and had exploded since the September 11 attacks. Its annual deficits were also out of control. Its budgets showed no signs of balancing. Would the United States willingly incur even more debt to go to war in the Baltics? After nearly two decades in Afghanistan, eight years in Iraq, and multiple years spent chasing ISIS in Syria, would Americans agree to expend additional blood and treasure to defend the tiny Baltic countries of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia? Could a majority of Americans even find those nations on a map? Or, had Americans had enough?
And what about Poland? she thought. Poland was an exceptional partner to the United States. It had met its NATO spending requirements and was a staunch U.S. ally. But if Poland were attacked, would Americans see it as far away and inconsequential as the other Baltic nations? Would the United States honor its commitments and come to Poland’s defense?
Jasinski wanted to believe America would, but if she had to be honest, she wasn’t 100 percent sure. She was even less sure about the United States defending the Baltics.
Though she hated to think it, she could envision a scenario in which America sat things out.
Via fake news and information warfare, she could imagine a fervor being whipped up where Americans might be swayed to believe it was better to let nations like Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia fall, rather than have the U.S. go to war with Russia on their behalf.
It had happened before. She had studied it while at the National Defense University. In 1938, Hitler annexed Austria. Instead of coming to Austria’s defense, the rest of the world did nothing.
Emboldened, Hitler then pressed for, and was awarded, a strategic chunk of Czechoslovakia populated by “ethnic Germans,” referred to as Sudetenland. The Europeans, hoping to “slake Hitler’s thirst and avoid a Europe-wide war,” agreed to trade away the sovereign territory of Czechoslovakia for a false peace and empty promises.
Winston Churchill had seen it for the folly it was and had sent a strong warning to his countrymen, as well as the Americans. His words were so chilling to her that she had committed them to memory. “And do not suppose that this is the end. This is only the beginning of the reckoning. This is only the first sip, the first foretaste of a bitter cup which will be proffered to us year by year unless by a supreme recovery of moral health and martial vigor, we arise again and take our stand for freedom as in the olden time.”
Things moved quickly downhill from there. In March of 1939, Hitler took the rest of Czechoslovakia and annexed a slice of Lithuania. On September 1 of that same year, the Nazis invaded Poland. Two days later, Britain and France declared war on Germany. Two weeks after that, the Soviet Red Army invaded Poland from the east. On September 27, 1939, Warsaw surrendered to Germany. It would take fifty more years for Poland to fully recapture its freedom.
And while history didn’t necessarily repeat, it did rhyme. What was now making sense to Jasinski was that with its invasion of Ukraine and the annexation of the Crimean peninsula, Russia was taking on the role of Nazi Germany.
The arguments made for the Russian invasion were practically identical to those that had been made by Adolf Hitler and the Nazis. Russia was simply acting to defend ethnic Russians.
Despite having assurances that the United States would defend Ukraine if it agreed to denuclearize, when Russia seized its territory,
the United States did nothing but impose sanctions and uselessly saber rattle at the United Nations. It was 1938 all over again.
By allowing Russia to invade Ukraine uncontested, America had emboldened Russia. With a revanchist President intent on returning his country to the power, influence, and territorial integrity of the days of the Soviet Union, Poland and the Baltic nations had every reason to worry that Russia wouldn’t stop at Crimea. Not knowing if America or NATO would come to their aid only deepened that concern.
If Russia invaded even just one of the Baltics and the Americans sat it out, that was it. Not only would it be the end of NATO, but Russia would have nothing further to hold it back. It would be the end of a free and democratic Poland. Poland would be Russia’s next target.
Harvath didn’t have to do any more convincing. Sergun’s rumor clearly made sense as far as Jasinski was concerned. The fact that he and his team had been sent to Europe demonstrated how seriously the Americans were taking the threat. Avoiding a war by taking the fight to Russia, before Russia could bring the fight to them, made sense.
What also made sense was Harvath’s attitude that to do so might require operating outside the bounds of the law.
Looking at him, she asked, “How are we going to stop Russia?”
Harvath liked that she was using the word “we.” “Our main focus has to be figuring out who’s running the operation,” he replied. “If we can uncover that, we can begin to take it all apart.”
“So what’s our next move?”
Glancing at Nicholas, he responded, “We’re going to have to take another trip.”
“Where to?”
“Gotland.”
“The island off Sweden?” she asked.
He nodded.
“Why? What’s on Gotland?”
Climbing down from the table, Nicholas shook his head and answered for him. “Trouble. Very serious trouble.”
CHAPTER 17