“If we are lucky and a similar CME hit us today maybe we would get away with scrambled satellite transmissions and a lot of static on radios. Or phones burning out. Maybe some circuits or computer chips would short out. Hopefully nothing so bad we couldn’t bounce back from it. No one knows if the 1800’s ejection hit the earth straight on or at a glancing angle.
“The occurrence that makes scientists and some of us who are listening to them sweat, is a large mass being ejected that hits us squarely. A large enough ejection could burn out every computer, including every circuit board in every vehicle and machine. It could melt electrical transmission lines and blow out transformers like a string of firecrackers.
“With a bad enough surge, wooden structures with power lines coming in could catch fire. The average circuit breaker would be hit by such a huge surge they would have no time to trip. Even if they did manage to trip, that much power would just arc over the breaker and continue into the house. It would be like a lightning strike. Our whole society is based on electricity and machines that use one type of computer or another.”
The implications of such an event were not lost on Al. The more he thought about it, the more he didn’t like the pictures popping into his head. “That would screw things up for years and years,” Al agreed.
Madd was shaking his head, knowing that Al was only partially right. “That’s what I thought, until I really looked into how we handle things like the transformers you see on power poles up and down the street. With the addition of the huge transformers at electrical switching points, things could get very grim very quickly. No electrical company carries more than a few replacement transformers for the common emergencies we see with weather related issues. A significant amount of transformers are made out of the country and are ordered on an as-needed basis. At the present time there is a 1 year wait time between an order and its delivery on transformers. In a nationwide event, such as a super CME, since there would be no working transportation, we would have to try to get replacements from manufacturers in the U. S., provided any were even set up for what we would need and if we could find a way to power the factories.
“With transformers out, we would have no power. No power, no manufacturing. No power, no new manufactured parts to build a transformer with. With a CME overload, no computers or circuit boards, which means no trucks to transport parts or finished transformers, even if a method of manufacturing them could be found. I’m afraid we would be without local or nationwide power for considerably longer than a few years. I don’t think we would get as far back as the Stone Age, but I shudder to think how close we might come if things really went bad.”
Madd couldn’t sit still; he had to stand. This subject always made him want to pace.
“A CME is a natural overload, but what about one that an enemy or a terrorist group hits us with? From some experiments, scientists tell us that it would only take two or three well-placed nuclear devices to do more damage than a CME would. All it takes is a nuclear device in an airplane or rocket centered over one half or one third of the country to be detonated at high altitude to produce an EMP. Some scientists believe it would take only one of sufficient size centered over the middle of the U.S.
“This is not just my opinion, the Wall Street Journal had an article on EMPs, and this is a direct quote: ‘In a recent letter to investors, billionaire hedge-fund manager Paul Singer warned that an electromagnetic pulse, or EMP, is “the most significant threat” to the U.S. and our allies in the world’.
“He’s right. Our food and water supplies, communications, banking, hospitals, law enforcement, etc., all depend on the electric grid. Yet until recently little attention has been paid to the ease of generating EMPs by detonating a nuclear weapon in orbit above the U.S., and thus bringing our civilization to a cold, dark halt.
“Recent declassification of EMP studies by the U.S. government has begun to draw attention to this dire threat. Rogue nations such as North Korea (and possibly Iran) can match Russia and China and have the primary ingredients for an EMP attack: simple ballistic missiles such as Scuds that could be launched from a freighter near our shores; space-launch vehicles able to loft low-earth-orbit satellites; and simple low-yield nuclear weapons that can generate gamma rays and fireballs. To see page after page of warnings about a possible EMP attack all you have to do is Google EMP. It makes for frightening reading.”
“Considering how a lot of the world, specifically Iran and North Korea feel about us, that makes a chill run up my spine,” said Al.
“There is something else about a large EMP strike that a lot of people are ignoring. When threats are discussed that affect most of the US, a lot of people respond by saying, ‘No need to worry, sit tight and wait for the government aid to arrive’. They are ignoring the fact that with an EMP it really doesn’t matter if our government has huge stockpiles of food placed around the country. No trucks or cars. No delivery, no supervision, no trucks to set up FEMA facilities or distribution points. Even if there are twenty large stockpiles around the country, no delivery beyond what a person can walk to and back from to their homes in twenty-four hours means that hundreds of millions are going to starve. Doesn’t matter how good the intentions of the government are, if there’s no way to deliver amounts of food to the starving.”
Taking a few steps one way, then back again, Madd sat back down.
“Let’s take a look at biologically induced disasters. We are now seeing diseases and infections that are resistant to our antibiotics and antiviral medicines. Antibiotic resistance is a form of drug resistance whereby some and sometimes all microorganisms, like a bacterial species, are able to survive after exposure to one or more antibiotics. These are now being called MDR or multidrug resistant pathogens. Most people just call them super-bugs.
“Antibiotic resistance is a serious threat and has emerged as one of the pre-eminent public health concerns of the 21st century. The World Health Organization released a statement on April 30, 2014 which says, ‘This serious threat is no longer a prediction for the future, it is happening right now in every region of the world and has the potential to affect anyone, of any age, in any country. Antibiotic resistance–when bacteria changes so antibiotics no longer work in people who need them to treat infections–is now a major threat to public health.’
“We are seeing a major outbreak of Ebola right now, with no known really effective treatment available. What happens if the next outbreak is some type of fast-moving Super Ebola?
“Super this or super that might sound a little farfetched Al, so let’s take a look at something we have known about for thirty years and more, AIDS. Most everyone knows that AIDS is contracted through sexual contact or direct contact of the body fluids of an AIDS victim with a scratch or cut on another person. A person can have the virus in their body and not be sick for a long time. Sometimes for years before it goes active and makes the person ill.
“With no symptoms an infected person can continue to infect more and more sexual partners. These partners in turn can infect their own circle of sexual partners. All the while everyone is feeling fine with no symptoms of the virus. Researchers have been trying to produce a cure for the AIDS virus since the 80s with no success. For about the last eight or so years there have been drugs that can prolong the life and the quality of life of an AIDS victim, but it is not a cure. For the more than twenty plus years before these new drugs, AIDS was a death sentence for most people. All that could be done for them was supportive care in hospitals, etc. It is a slow death in many cases and very unpleasant as far as I can find out. It so suppresses the immune system that an infected cut on a finger can virtually kill the patient, since their bodies cannot fight back. A very tragic disease. An estimated 36 million people have died since the first cases were reported in 1981 and 1.6 million people died of HIV/AIDS in 2012.
“Consider this: how many people would be dead as of 2012, if instead of AIDS/HIV being spread by sexual contact, it was spread in the same way the common c
old or flu is spread? You can get a cold or flu just by a person sneezing into the air and you walking through that air. If a person touches their nose and then touches you or a table top or door knob, you can get a cold or the flu by touching these same objects.
“Think about this. With that one small change in how it is spread, people would feel fine, and continue with their lives after contracting the virus through a sneeze, for years. They meet people, shake hands, open doors, and go vacationing, all the time spreading the virus. More and more people become infected and pass it on to more and more people. They go to remote villages or mountain tops, spreading as they go. Three to five years pass with more and more people spreading the virus, because they don’t know they are sick. In five years of infecting people, how many are going to be infected? Millions, billions?
“Now we have millions or billions of seemingly healthy people. Then the virus goes active and a hospital suddenly has ten mystery cases on their hands, just like they did in the early 80’s. However, unlike the 80’s where they saw a few cases in the range of ten here or five there, they would see that first ten. Then in a couple days they would see twenty or thirty more. As those infected pass the three to five year period of feeling good and become ill, the hospitals would begin to see one hundred or more. In a few more days, weeks or months they would begin to see a thousand, then tens of thousands.
“Keep in mind that there was and still is no cure for AIDS/HIV. How long before the hospitals and care facilities were overflowing with victims they couldn’t really help? Soon food production would halt, and deliveries would stop because every sector of our work force would be out of work because they were ill, or dying. In three or four years there would be billions of dead and dying. Since at the start people didn’t feel ill, doctors and nurses would have contracted the same virus just like everyone else. In ten years would we have gone from a world population of seven billion to a few million. What about fifteen or twenty years? By that time we would be lucky if the world population was in the hundred thousand range.
“Al, there is one inescapable fact that should keep anyone up at night. The virus could have just as easily mutated to be airborne transmittable. We had a 50/50 chance, and we won the toss, this time. How much are we willing to bet that we will win the next one or the one after that? New diseases, new viruses seem to be coming out of places like Africa every month, it’s just a matter of time until one of them is undetectable until it is too late to do anything about it. In the movies and stories, you see the idea put forward that the CDC or some drug company will whip up a cure for us in a couple of weeks. When you think that or hear someone spouting off about a quick easy cure, remember, thirty years and no cure for a simple AIDS/HIV virus.”
A visible shudder went through everyone sitting there, not just Al, but everyone; they could see all too clearly what could have happened. All this information had made him sweat, but that last little bit of knowledge Madd had shared was the worst of all.
At this point, Madd just shrugged. “Al, I am not going to beat you up with more and more horrendous possibilities. There are a lot more things that can go wrong with our fragile economy or our fragile world. There are meteors striking the earth as the one did that killed off the dinosaurs, earth-sized rouge planets colliding with the earth or falling into our sun. The list goes on and on. It isn’t, could these things happen, it is when these things will happen, because they surely will.
“The bottom line is, we are preppers because we want to give our family and close friends as much of a chance as we possibly can to survive a SHTF scenario. We can’t protect the world, our country or even most people in the county we live in. All we can hope for is to save a very small circle of family and friends and we might not be able to do even that. But we sure as heck are going to do everything in our power to save what we can. If I sound like I am worked up, I am; this is a personal mission for me, one I intend to accomplish or die trying.”
Al could see the passion in the young man’s eyes and a glimpse of what he must have looked like at eight, hard-eyed and dictating to his family’s council members.
Leaving Al to digest all that information, Itsy and Madd headed over to the slides to give them a try. They needed time to enjoy themselves while he still had some leave left.
“Roy, when I first ran into the guys and we chatted for a bit, I told them that there was something about them that made my neck itch. That was because I could tell there was something different about those five, but I couldn’t put my finger on it. Not just their abilities in the field, but what makes them tick. With what you have told me, that feeling is even stronger. Only now I am wondering what I am missing about your whole family. I am liking what I see and know about your family. Not that I know all that much, but there is a feeling of happiness that I see in your faces. The way the kids around the pool interact with the grownups, that feeling of loving respect I get from them. What am I missing?”
“I can try to answer that but you already have a lot to think about. You sure you want a ton more ideas, facts and theories thrown at you?”
“Yes, I do. Your family is like a jigsaw puzzle. I started putting the pieces together and can see a pretty picture developing. I can’t see what all the tiny pieces will turn into, that makes it hard to be patient and wait to see what that picture is.”
Roy was smiling when he said, “You asked for it. Earlier you asked ‘Why Madd and the four others, why were they special?’ I gave you some of the technical reasons but the best reason is the easiest one. At eight Madd had an insight and understanding of the situation that all of us on the council had missed. We didn’t call ourselves preppers but we did think about how bad the world seemed to be getting. Like most farmers/ranchers, we put aside money or food for hard times. As it turns out, nothing like what might be needed. Without really thinking about it we were relying on the fact that we had cattle or milk cows, saddle horses and that we knew how to grow things. We felt pretty good about being able to weather hard times.
“What Madd saw was that if things went really bad our family and the whole country, for that matter, would no longer be safe. We have hundreds of family members spread out across farms for miles in every direction. Many of them only have a handful of people working them full time. What happens when a starving group of 100 people show up? What happens if there is an EMP? How do we farm if we don’t have draft animals or horse drawn equipment?
“You will see in a lot of End of the World as We Know it stories where the bad guys are a drunken, ineffectual group run by a bully. The good guys eventually win because the bikers don’t really know how to operate as a cohesive force and don’t know how to use their weapons. Sure that could happen, but what about when 10 to 12 former service personnel, who know tactics and how to use their weapons, show up? They are just as hungry and desperate as the bikers, but they are way more dangerous. What chance does that farm that is separated by a mile from its neighbors have? Another common idea is that people who are separated by half a mile up to two miles will come running as soon as that one farm has trouble. Nothing wrong with that if the firefight goes on long enough. How fast do you come if you don’t have trucks any longer?
“Let’s take those former service personnel. They don’t swagger up all drunk. They watch the situation, and when it is best for them and worst for the farmer they hit him. The farmer is in the barn, sons and hired hands are tending crops or hunting. The farmer’s wife and others are canning food. All the attacking force has to do is take each small group one at a time. No real need for a pitched battle.
“You are probably thinking that farmer should have had sentries out. I agree that would be a good idea. Let’s examine sentries for a minute. It’s been determined that a man on eight hour sentry duty is not the best idea. Four hours are better, six might work up to a point. Even if you could do eight hour shifts day after day and still be effective, where does that leave us for manpower? Does a whole farm need only one sentry? Do they need two c
onsidering that there are barns, livestock, houses and gardens to watch over?
“That farm needs a force large enough to provide security long term without taking too many people off working the farm. With three shifts of one person that means that one person has to sleep during the day, and another has to sleep through part of it. Daylight is your most productive time. It’s hard to hoe a garden in the dark. You could try having them sleep in a split shift so that they were up in the daylight more. How does that work out after sixty or ninety days? Do you need two sentries per shift?
“For farms or ranches a co-operative arrangement for helping each other is fine, but it isn’t going to solve all your problems. The point is that there are a lot of issues that we just didn’t consider. We were fat and happy in our assumption that we would be fine because we are on a farm.
“At eight Madd figured out we weren’t doing enough. The other four were not random choices either. Yes, they were all long term friends who grew up together. But Madd had other cousins and friends. The four you know became a group because they could see what Madd saw. They understood at a subliminal level that more was needed. The reason there are five is even easier. What if Madd had been killed in combat? We needed redundancy. Next would be Ivan, then on and on. Five was felt to be enough to make sure one of them actually survived.
“There is another thing that make them all, especially Madd, the ones to lead. Madd is driven. He understood at eight what was needed. Take his relationship with Itsy. Anyone looking at him can tell he adores her. So why is he so adamant that the relationship remain on the level of hand holding? He is like any young man, full of hormones and the juices of life. Yet he abstains; why? His family, his training have turned him into a weapon, a leader, and he understands that. He has put his personal preferences, his life on hold until he finishes his contract to the military. He can’t do or become what he knows he must if he can’t control himself. There will be time enough when he has learned what he can from combat.
So, You Want to Live Past Next Tuesday Page 7