“That is my intention and unless I get killed first, I am going to do it.”
“Hold that thought. Madd gave you a pretty glowing recommendation, as do the cousins. That goes a long way with me. None of us have time for any fancy dancing around, so I am going to cut to the chase. Time isn’t our friend and we need to make the most of what we have left. You understand the financial situation and you know that the family needs a great deal of cash before a SHTF situation happens, right?”
“I understand what’s needed. Anything I can do to help I’ll do,” Al told the group.
Zeb took a minute to collect his thoughts before proceeding.
“What do you guys know about drugs and drug smuggling in Afghanistan? Somehow we need to plug into that business and shake them until the money falls out.”
“I don’t know much other than that they grow poppies for opium that is made into heroin, which gets traded for weapons,” said Madd.
That summed up the knowledge most of them had.
“I know something about the smuggling end of it. They trade raw opium for weapons and ammunition. I actually saw a file on how the trades were handled. It was one of many files I have been given to keep me up to speed on what’s going on around the country. I was never tasked with doing anything about it, though,” said Al.
“Good deal, Al. Let me give you guys an overview of what is known. Russian arms dealers meet drug lords at a bazaar near the old Afghan-Soviet border, deep in Tajikistan’s desert. The bazaar exists solely to trade Afghan drugs for Russian guns. It’s a bleak village with no homes, hidden in the desert near the border. Inside, open-air courtyards with up to 300 shopkeepers sit in small booths. Many of them act as agents of the Russian mafia who supply the guns and spirit the drugs away. The Afghan drug dealers have the consent of corrupt officials in their government. They don’t usually sell drugs for money, except in special circumstances. Usually they only exchange them for ammunition, RPGs, Kalashnikovs; well, the list goes on from there,” said Zeb.
“One kilogram of heroin can buy 30 newly manufactured AK-47Ms with chromed barrels and other high-use parts from the factory at Izhevsk Russia at this bazaar. You can buy practically anything, from the oldest model AKs to the newest models. They are like a company; they have some big sponsors who support them in the government, for a cut of the profits of course. The guns go straight to the Taliban front line. A kilogram of the best Afghan heroin is worth $1,000 in Afghanistan. It is worth twice as much at the bazaar in Tajikistan. After the Russian mob gets it, the raw poppy resin is shipped to places that turn it into heroin. The Russian mob is motivated to sell for a product they can mark-up many times over and distribute throughout Europe. The drug dealers are motivated to buy weapons they can sell for double or triple to the Taliban. The Taliban gets between 50 and 70 percent of their income and or weapons from their involvement with the drug dealers.
“Recently a new wrinkle has been added. At least one shopkeeper is now buying weapons for the Taliban from the Russians with US dollars. Granted the dollar may not be what it once was in world trade, but it is still valuable to the Russians, since they can use it for bribes and payoffs to move their heroin throughout Europe. Even now, US dollars command a better exchange rate than Russian rubles and are accepted in more places as well.”
“I just have to ask, Zeb,” said Madd, “where are they getting US dollars?”
“From several sources. The Saudis for one, and Iran,” said Zeb. “Muammar Gaddafi had been financing a number of terrorist organizations for years. When he was overthrown, a Taliban operative in charge of one fund got anywhere from 300 million to 600 million in $100 bills from one of his secrets stashes. They managed to get it out of the country in 2011. Where it went from there, no one seems to know. Eventually some or all of it ended up in Pakistan. No way to know why but when it looked like the US might actually withdraw troops from Afghanistan they moved it over the mountains to a hiding place in that country.
“We have been keeping an eye on the shopkeepers I mentioned. One of the biggest of them is a well-known go between with the Russians. Suddenly he is flush with cash and offering top dollar for weapons and ammo on a much larger scale than the Afghani drug runners. Interestingly, he has previously only dealt in drugs for weapons. It seems he now has a contact that can supply him cash to buy from the Russians.
“Apparently the Taliban is trying to move up in the terrorist game. They are feeling the pressure from other groups like ISIS. They don’t want ISIS or any other group to make them look bad by outgunning them. They are trying to buy a lot more than just a few RPGs and shoulder fired rockets. He isn’t looking for smuggled parts or 20 shoulder-fired rockets, he is looking for truck load lots. The heavy ordinance he is trying to get from the Russian smugglers takes a lot more time to acquire than AK’s so he hasn’t managed to take any deliveries yet,” said Zeb.
“Are they planning on running a convoy out of Russia through that miserable country, to fill that large an order?” Madd said, laughing.
“Exactly.”
“Wait Zeb, you’re saying they are just going to drive truckloads of weapons and ammo to the border, where they will be transferred and driven into Afghanistan?”
“Yes, that’s what I’m saying Madd. Just because they do it doesn’t mean they will make it, of course.”
“The Russians have all the contacts they need to get through Tajikistan to the meeting.”
“Along the Iranian border, British soldiers have intercepted three weapons convoys coming out of Iran recently, and driving into Afghanistan that I know of.
“The Russian mob has a lot of power, a lot of money for bribes. They are dangerous for the average Russian small-time official to go against. If the Afghanis will take the chance of driving truck loads from Iran there is no reason to believe they won’t try it out of Tajikistan into Afghanistan. That part of the border area is desolate and you could probably drive twenty convoys through there. If you were unlucky you might lose one.”
“If you say so Zeb; after all, this kind of information is what you do for a living. It’s just hard to understand how it can all go on.”
“Just consider for a minute, Madd. Think of the Mexican drug cartels and how they murder, intimidate and control a lot of the politicians. They have armies of thugs killing and running drugs into the US on a regular basis, and that is right in our backyard.
“Since at least 1998 the Taliban has been fighting various opponents. They may have had thousands of weapons and a billion rounds of ammo stockpiled, but it doesn’t really matter now. Every time our guys find a catch of weapons and ammo, their supplies dwindle. Every time a Taliban fighter is killed his weapon is lost from their inventory. What about the hundreds of thousands of rounds they have been shooting all these years? Even if they had a billion rounds leftover from what the US gave the Afghans to fight the Russians, or if they scrounged thousands from Afghan military or police forces, they are faced with the shark syndrome.
“A shark has to keep swimming to pass enough water through his gills to get the oxygen to survive. A military force has to keep being resupplied or they are going to become combat ineffective at some point. No, they are getting resupplied. From the drug trade, from Iran, maybe even China. From our intelligence I can tell you that Iran has several factories that are turning out AKs,” said Zeb.
“Isn’t there something the US can do about this bazaar?” Ivan asked.
“You are suggesting that the US under Obama is going to fly into Tajikistan, a former Russian state’s airspace, and bomb suspected drug dealers? Putin wants the old Soviet Union back. What do you imagine he would do if the US bombed Tajikistan?” asked Zeb.
“That man is about half crazy already. That would shove him right over the edge for sure. None of this is supposition on my part. The bazaar and the convoys out of Iran have all made it into the various news media around the world. Google the subject; it’s there for anyone to find if they look.”
“OK, I get that. Nothing we can do at this point, but there must be a reason you brought all this up, said Ivan. So give, what is it?”
“This is a little ticklish,” stated Zeb. “I believe I can figure out when a convoy is headed for the border out of Russia. All I have to do is time the poppy harvest with travel times. I have access to real time satellite feeds from all around the country. Satellite intelligence will let us know when the drug dealers leave their hometowns. That will allow us to know within two to five days of when the exchanges will start. The dealer who is buying for cash has to wait for the drug convoys; he isn’t the only one buying from the Russians. The Russians are going to want to keep their exposure as small as possible. They will make a run to satisfy all their buyers at one time.”
“Any idea how much cash might be on hand?” asked Al.
“Unlike the AKs which come from a factory the Russian drug dealers can just buy from, the heavier ordinance will have to come from stockpiles of the Soviet Army. Just as an example, if they are paying three bribes to get equipment to the boarder, they will now have to pay those plus a fair number of others.
“There will have to be a bribe for a staff officer, the noncom and the men who work under him in the warehouse. Those bribes will be considerably more than the bribe paid to some minor border official who is afraid for his life. We don’t have actual lists of course, but think about this. What are 20 trucks loaded with a 1,000 shoulder fired missiles? Say, 5,000 RPGs, 1,000 heavy crew served weapons and 20,000 thousand rounds for the RPGs. Plus a million rounds of ammunition to feed all the other weapons. What’s it worth?” asked Zeb, rhetorically.
“I see your point,” said Al.
“Several million?” asked Real.
“They will be buying at wholesale prices, but in large lots. Best guess is a multiple of millions,” said Zeb.
“If it were only two million that is only 100,000 per truck. That would be a ridiculous price for heavy ordinance. Would hardly be worth the time and danger. Dollar for dollar it’s a lot easier to hide and transport a truckload of AKs and the parts to repair them. You could do that in two or three trucks and reduce the danger of being caught to almost nil. With many truckloads they are taking 100 times more risk. If they are caught with Army weapons they are going to get a lot more than a slap on the wrist.”
“Bribes might get them out of the drug charges Zeb, but that won’t help much if they get caught by other factions,” pointed out Al.
“I agree. The Red Army takes a dim view of people stealing their weapons,” added Zeb.
“So all we have to do is infiltrate the Russian border, fight 300 or so merchants and find the few who have cash instead of drugs? Then boogie back across the border and count the loot?” asked Ivan. “Wow Zeb, that seems a little hairy.”
“You can do it that way if you want but I have what I hope is a better idea. Remember I said there was one merchant that I knew for sure was buying with dollars?”
“OK, yes I do,” said Ivan.
“The money man who is supplying that one particular merchant is going to be holding cash for the purchase at the border. He is probably going to stand right there and watch the merchant negotiate the deal. He would never turn it over beforehand, too much chance the cash might turn to vapor.
“The money man is pretty elusive; we have been tracking him for years. We just never managed to catch up to him in time to put paid to his account. Because of the harvest times, we know when he will be traveling and his destination. We even have a good idea where he will cross the border into Tajikistan,” said Zeb.
“We also know that he isn’t trading with drugs, but cash,” pointed out Al.
“Correct. Drug merchants will be transporting some bulky packages to the boarder. Our merchant will be transporting a few smallish packages, comparatively speaking.”
“You know that how, Zeb?”
“Well, Ivan, a million dollars in $100s weighs 20 to 22 pounds and is approximately 9” x 6” x 13”. For the sake of argument if you strapped 3 million together you would have a package no more than 9” x 18” x 13”. So he could have 3 to 6 million in a couple of book bags that weight 60 pound each,” said Zeb.
“What about security, Zeb?” Al was intensely interested now.
“No doubt he will have people with him. Let me ask you this though. Ten men might go unnoticed as they slip toward the border. How about twenty or thirty or fifty driving trucks?”
“I see your point. He would need security but they could be as small a force as a couple of men. He will need trucks, drivers and guards headed out to the meeting to bring back the weapons. There is no reason for him to travel with them on the trip out when they are empty though. Much safer if he doesn’t. There is already a chance someone will mistake them for drug trucks. Wouldn’t be a good idea to parade a lot of armed men and trucks around. Too much chance a US patrol or air reconnaissance might spot his convoy,” said Al.
“At the meeting just before the trucks are loaded with arms for the exchange, he can show up with some personal guards and the money. Much smaller profile. When the exchange is made he would be much safer traveling back with his original guards instead of sitting on top of twenty truckloads of contraband,” said Al.
“You’re right, men in his line of work don’t last long by taking unnecessary risks. I have access to a lot of stock aerial views of the area we are talking about to familiarize anyone with the area,” said Zeb.
“How much of this is solid intel?”
“That’s a joke, right, Al? We know that the bazaar and the buying of weapons from Russian smugglers is a fact. That’s been reported by eye witnesses. We know the Saudis and Iran fund the Taliban. We know that Gaddafi did fund them. We know that someone is trying to buy more than just AKs. That much is fact,” said Zeb.
“Things we believe we know include the identity of the front man for the Taliban, or call him the money man if you like. We know that whoever is buying these weapons are buying them from Russian mobsters. We know that a large chunk of cash disappeared out of Libya and we are fairly certain that the Taliban front man we have been watching is the one doing the deal. We know that this same person was in a truck that joined a supply convoy out of Pakistan headed for Afghanistan. The one we believe had the money in it. The only logical reason for this person to be riding in a truck convoy is to keep an eye on millions of dollars.”
“I can’t tell you if the whole stash from Libya is in Afghanistan or how many millions they have from all sources. As far as being totally solid, it just doesn’t work that way,” said Zeb.
“Most times it is a piece from here, a piece from over there; many pieces that fall together. Could there be other scenarios that would account for what we know, that money is being smuggled? Of course there could be. This is just the most likely. The money for weapons has to come from somewhere. Not all of this came from any one source,” Zeb was warming up to his subject.
“Just as an example. All intercepted communications are checked for key words. When US dollars were mentioned by people who usually deal only in opium, it raised a flag. Weapons smugglers who usually only trade for opium mentioning trading for dollars stood out. From there we can narrow down who might have enough dollars to interest such an operation. In the same intercept, heavier weapons were mentioned. Groups who have dollars, need heavier weapons and are capable of having them moved out of Russia narrows it down considerably. Luckily for us, as far as I can find out there is no one agency with all these pieces,” said Zeb.
“That probably won’t last. The score has to be made when the next harvest is ready to be traded. Sources tell me everything will be ready for the exchange in something like five weeks.”
“That’s going to be cutting it close, Zeb. What do we know about the Taliban front man?” asked Al.
“We know the name he uses. We know the general area he has contacts and supporters in. There is a very limited area he can be staying in for him to make the meet on time. We h
ave a description of him, which is almost useless; he looks like a typical Afghani. The only distinguishing thing we can find out about him is the weapon he likes to carry. Like a lot of Afghanis he has decorated the stock of his AK. In his case he chose the most sacred Mosquée in Islam, al-Ka?bah. It is written using brass nail heads on the stock of his AK.”
“That’s not much to go on, Zeb.”
“I know Al, but it is all I have right now. One thing that might help is we have a picture of the man who helped the front man smuggle the cash into the country. One agency is on the lookout for him. On the upside they are looking for him for totally different reasons than the money. Another agency is looking for the front man. If either of them pops up in the system I will know about it. Then it will be a race to see if we can relieve them of the money before they get picked up.”
“That sounds a little better, Zeb. Looking at it that way we have three or four different ways to locate them,” said Al.
“Does it really narrow things down enough, Al?” asked Madd.
“Maybe. It’s mountain country and there are limited roads and ways for them to get to the exchange. We will be looking for a six to ten man security force traveling together. Probably traveling in a group once they are out of town and in the country. They will have to be close enough for mutual support. They will chose something different for transportation. No reason to drive the same type of truck favored by the drug smugglers. I doubt they will use donkeys like the small time opium smugglers sometimes use to carry their goods. Some small time guys will be on motor bikes, but not in groups. They favor just one or two men on their own. Since our targets need minimal transportation, motor bikes might be a possibility for them. Larger groups traditionally use trucks or animal power.”
“I like it, Al. You should be able to rule out the truck groups and the donkey group can be ignored totally. Subtract the obvious and what you have left are our targets,” said Zeb.
“Any thoughts on communications, Al?”
So, You Want to Live Past Next Tuesday Page 20