14Paul D. Miller, “H-Diplo/ISSF State of the Field Essay: On the Unreality of Realism in International Relations,” H-Diplo, October 2, 2019, https://networks.h-net.org/node/28443/discussions/4846080/h-diploissf-state-field-essay-unreality-realism-international. For another trenchant critique of this school of thought, see Hal Brands, “Retrenchment Chic: The Dangers of Offshore Balancing,” SSRN August 2015, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2737594.
15For an essay that contains all these arguments, by a director of research at the Soros-Koch–funded Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, see Stephen Wertheim, “The Price of Primacy: Why America Shouldn’t Dominate the World, Foreign Affairs, March/April 2020, 19–29.
16John Stuart Mill, “On Liberty” (London: John W. Parker and Son, West Strand, 1859).
17The White House, National Security Strategy of the United States of America, December 2017, 4, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf.
18Both quotations are from Ronald Granieri, “What Is Geopolitics and Why Does It Matter?” Foreign Policy Research Institute (Fall 2015), 492, https://www.fpri.org/article/2015/10/what-is-geopolitics-and-why-does-it-matter/. Audrey Kurth Cronin, Power to the People: How Open Technological Innovation Is Arming Tomorrow’s Terrorists (New York: Oxford University Press, 2020).
19For a succinct discussion of both forms of deterrence, see A. Wess Mitchell, “The Case for Deterrence by Denial,” The American Interest, August 12, 2015, https://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/08/12/the-case-for-deterrence-by-denial/.
20For benefits of alliances, see Grygiel and Mitchell, The Unquiet Frontier, 117–54.
21Fukuyama, Identity: The Demand for Dignity and the Politics of Resentment (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2018), 165–66.
22Fukuyama, Identity, 170–71.
23For the connection between income inequality and opportunity inequality and the importance of education, see Robert D. Putnam, Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2015), esp. 227–61.
24Paul Reynolds, “History’s Other Great Relief Effort,” BBC, January 11, 2005, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4164321.stm.
25Zachary Shore, “The Spirit of Sputnik: Will America Ever Fund Education Again?” Medium, September 3, 2018, https://medium.com/@zshore/the-spirit-of-sputnik-881b8f720736.
Recommended Reading
Russia
On defending against Russia new-generation warfare: The Lands in Between: Russia vs. the West and the New Politics of Hybrid War, by Mitchell Alexander Orenstein.
On Putin as an operator: Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin, by Clifford Gaddy and Fiona Hill.
On the Russian Siloviki: All the Kremlin’s Men: Inside the Court of Vladimir Putin, by Mikhail Zygar.
On the failed Russian transition of the 1990s: Sale of the Century: Russia’s Wild Ride from Communism to Capitalism, by Chrystia Freeland.
For a personal account of Russia’s transition in the 1990s and beyond: From Cold War to Hot Peace: An American Ambassador in Putin’s Russia, by Michael McFaul.
On Putin’s rule and implications for the future: Kremlin Winter: Russia and the Second Coming of Vladimir Putin, by Robert Service.
China
On the U.S.-China relationship: The Beautiful Country and the Middle Kingdom: America and China, 1776 to the Present, by John Pomfret.
On historical memory and the Chinese Communist Party’s ambitions: Everything Under the Heavens: How the Past Helps Shape China’s Push for Global Power, by Howard French.
On the Chinese Communist Party’s obsession with control: Haunted by Chaos: China’s Grand Strategy from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping, by Sulmaan Wasif Khan.
On Xi Jinping’s reversal of reform and the development of the authoritarian surveillance police state: The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State, by Elizabeth Economy.
On the future of the Indo-Pacific region: The End of the Asian Century: War, Stagnation, and the Risks to the World’s Most Dynamic Region, by Michael R. Auslin.
On China’s modern transformation, Wealth and Power: China’s Long March to the Twenty-First Century, by Orville Schell and John Delury.
South Asia
On Afghanistan’s wars: The Wars of Afghanistan: Messianic Terrorism, Tribal Conflicts, and the Failures of Great Powers, by Peter Tomsen.
On jihadist terrorist goals and strategy: The Master Plan: ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and the Jihadi Strategy for Final Victory, by Brian Fishman.
On the Haqqani network as the nexus of jihad in South Asia: The Fountain-head of Jihad: The Haqqani Nexus, 1973–2012, by Vahid Brown and Don Rassler.
On the troubled U.S.-Pakistani relationship: Magnificent Delusions: Pakistan, the United States, and an Epic History of Misunderstanding, by Husain Haqqani.
On the essential elements of an effective counterterrorism strategy: How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns, by Audrey Kurth Cronin.
Middle East
On the U.S. experience in Iraq from 2003 to 2011: The Endgame: The Inside Story of the Struggle for Iraq, from George W. Bush to Barack Obama, by Michael R. Gordon and General Bernard E. Trainor.
On Iraq’s internal political dynamics after Saddam Hussein: Iraq After America: Strongmen, Sectarians, Resistance, by Joel Rayburn.
On the United States’ long struggle with terrorism in the Middle East: Blood Year: The Unraveling of Western Counterterrorism, by David Kilcullen.
On ISIS: ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror, by Michael Weiss and Hassan Hassan; and Shatter the Nations: ISIS and the War for the Caliphate, by Mike Giglio.
On the effect of the Arab Spring on the people of the region: A Rage for Order: The Middle East in Turmoil, from Tahrir Square to ISIS, by Robert F. Worth.
On the Syrian Civil War: Assad or We Burn the Country: How One Family’s Lust for Power Destroyed Syria, by Sam Dagher.
Iran
On the Iranian Revolution: The Persian Sphinx: Amir Abbas Hoveyda and the Riddle of the Iranian Revolution, by Abbas Milani.
On Iran’s four-decade proxy war in the Middle East: The Twilight War: The Secret History of America’s Thirty-Year Conflict with Iran, by David Crist; and Confronting Iran, by Ali M. Ansari.
On the role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard’s Corps in exporting Iran’s revolution: Vanguard of the Imam: Religion, Politics, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, by Afshon Ostovar.
On the Saudi-Iranian rivalry and the drives of sectarian violence in the Middle East: Black Wave: Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the Forty-Year Rivalry that Unraveled Culture, Religion, and Collective Memory in the Middle East, by Kim Ghattas.
North Korea
On the history of U.S.-North Korean interactions: The Impossible State: North Korea, Past and Future, by Victor Cha.
On the nature of the North Korean regime: The Real North Korea: Life and Politics in the Failed Stalinist Utopia, by Andrei Lankov.
On the miracle of South Korea: Nation Building in South Korea, by Gregg A. Brazinsky.
On the U.S. relationship with Japan in the postwar period: Japan in the American Century, by Kenneth B. Pyle.
On Kim Jong-un: The Great Successor: The Divinely Perfect Destiny of Brilliant Comrade Kim Jong Un, by Anna Fifield.
Arenas
On defending against cyber-enabled information warfare and other threats to democracy: Ill Winds: Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency, by Larry Diamond.
On the interrelated problems of climate, energy, and food security: Food Foolish: The Hidden Connection Between Food Waste, Hunger, and Climate, by John M. Mandyck and Eric B. Schultz.
On technology and its effect on the environment and security: Energy for Future Presidents: The Science Behind the Headlines, by Richard A. Muller.
On social media’s detrimental effect on society: The Square and the Tower, by Niall Ferguson; and LikeWar: The Weaponization of Social Media, by P.
W. Singer and Emerson T. Brooking.
On offensive cyber attacks: Bytes, Bombs, and Spies: The Strategic Dimensions of Offensive Cyber Operations, edited by Herbert Lin and Amy Zegart.
On technology and security: Power to the People: How Open Technological Innovation Is Arming Tomorrow’s Terrorists, by Audrey Kurth Cronin.
Conclusion/General
On great power competition and the importance of alliances: The Unquiet Frontier: Rising Rivals, Vulnerable Allies, and the Crisis of American Power, by Jakub J. Grygiel and A. Wess Mitchell.
For a historic perspective on how to defeat terrorist organizations: Return of the Barbarians: Confronting Non-State Actors from Ancient Rome to the Present, by Jakub Grygiel.
On strategy in war: The Direction of War: Contemporary Strategy in Historical Perspective, by Hew Strachan.
On the need to consolidate military gains into sustainable political outcomes: War and the Art of Governance: Consolidating Combat Success into Political Victory, by Nadia Schadlow.
On how to think about the adversary and the importance of strategic empathy: A Sense of the Enemy: The High Stakes History of Reading Your Rival’s Mind, by Zachary Shore.
Index
The pagination of this digital edition does not match the print edition from which the index was created. To locate a specific entry, please use your ebook reader’s search tools.
Abadi, Haider al-, 225–232, 237–239, 251, 274, 275, 327
background of, 232–237, 240–242
future and, 259–260
Abdullah, Dr. Abdullah, 181, 193
Abe Shinzo, 89, 113, 300–301, 371, 382, 391
Abizaid, John, 195, 237, 242, 246
Adams, John Quincy, 354
Afghanistan
Al-Qaeda’s origins and, 168–169
character of conflict in, 434–435
coalition forces and counterterrorism in, 169–175
educational needs in, 193–195
factionalism in, 167–168
Iran and, 306
never well understood by Americans, 171
principles of war and, 432, 433
recent history in, 161–167
Soviet Union and, 162
strategic narcissism and unrealistic expectations about, 155–161, 173–175, 180–184
terror organizations in, 168–173, 187–188
as transformed society, 188–192
Trump administration and, 185–195, 213–220
Agha, Tayeb, 182
Agreed Framework (1994), North Korea and, 346, 348, 385
Ahmadinejad, Mahmoud, 308–309, 310, 313–314, 323
Ajami, Fouad, 239
Albright, Madeleine, 62
Alexander, Keith, 117
Allawi, Ayad, 254
Allawi, Mohammed Tawfiq, 271, 272
Allegra, Ted, 31
Allen, John, 176, 178
Al-Qaeda, 12–14, 156, 158–159, 163–165, 168–170, 172–174, 180–181, 186, 192, 203–207, 213–218, 306
Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), 168–169, 230, 237–239, 246–249, 252–253, 255
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), 280
Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), 217
Al-Shabaab, 280
“anti-access and area denial (A2/AD)” program, of China, 124
APT10, 117
Armitage, Richard, 195
arms control agreements, 413–414
Armstrong, Joel, 251
artificial intelligence (AI), 46–77, 404, 410–411, 424
Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq (AAH), 227
Ash, Timothy Garton, 65
Asif, Kawaja Muhammad, 200–201
Assad, Bashar al-, 16, 27, 34–35, 55, 62, 236, 238–239, 262, 269–271, 310, 377
Assad, Hafez al-, 233, 236
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), 127
Ataturk, Mustafa Kemal, 277
Atmar, Hanif, 183–184, 193, 478n35
Azzam, Abdullah, 168
Baghdadi, Abu Bakr al-, 255, 262, 281
Baha’i, in Iran, 276
Bajwa, Qamar Javed, 201–206
Bakhtiar, Shapour, 305
Bangladesh Liberation War, 199
Baskerville, Howard, 322
Batchelor, Paul D., 91
Bauer, Katherine, 311
Bazargan, Mehdi, 303
Bell, Michael, 296, 298–299
Bellingcat, 74
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). See One Belt One Road (OBOB)
Ben Ali, Zayn al-Abidine, 256, 257
Betts, Richard, 514n5
Biden, Joe, 254
bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, King Salman, 269, 281–284
bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Prince Mohammad (MBS), 281–284, 325
bin Laden, Osama, 163–164, 168–169, 279, 331, 482n30
Blair, Alyssa, 374
Blake, James M., 162
Bolton, John, 386
bonyads, in Iran, 313–314, 323, 327, 337
Bouazizi, Mohamed, 256
Branstad, Terry, 93
Brunson, Rev. Andrew, 277
Brzezinski, Zbigniew, 303
Bundy, McGeorge, 427, 428, 429, 430
Bush, George H. W.
China and, 128, 135, 472n5
Iran and, 304–305
Iraq and, 6, 240–242, 434
post-Cold War expectations of, 10
Bush, George W.
Afghanistan, 176–177, 180
India and, 209
Iran and, 306–308, 310, 332
Iraq and, 16, 251, 253, 256
Middle East policy and, 261
Pakistan and, 180
Putin and, 67
South Korea and, 346–347
Cambridge Analytica, 51, 73
carbon emissions, 416, 418–419, 420–421, 422
Carlson, MaryKay, 211–212
Carlson, Tucker, 69
Carter, Jimmy and administration of, 303, 349–350, 352
Cha, Victor, 350
Chalabi, Ahmed, 310
Chechnya, 38, 56
Chemical Weapons Convention (1997), 413
Cheney, Dick, 250–251
China
“century of humiliation” of, 98–100, 140, 467n9
China Dream and efforts to overtake U.S. economy, 97, 101, 103–104, 111, 121, 148–149
Chinese history and current leaders’ outward confidence and inner apprehension, 93–99
as closed-authoritarian society, 90, 105–109
cyber-enabled information warfare of, 129–130, 401–402, 403
deterrence and, 442
economy in, 104–105, 127, 144–145
energy and climate, 418, 419
espionage against businesses and citizens, 118–120
ethnic minorities and, 106–107
geography of, 98
great power competition and, 11–12, 17–18
India and, 210
INF and, 413
Japan and, 357, 507n8
map, 87
North Korea and, 355–357, 359, 366
nuclear power and, 423
party’s manipulation of nation’s collective memory, 101–104
policies of co-option, coercion, and concealment, 89–149
preserving U.S. competitive advantage and, 439
promotion of “China model” over democracy and free markets, 120–121
rule of law and, 23, 474
Russia and, 83–84, 124–125
social credit score and, 103, 106, 119
space programs and, 408
technology and, 410–412
thefts of intellectual property, 114–118, 136, 408–409, 470n37, 474n24
Trump policies toward, 89–93, 98–99, 126, 130–133, 142–144, 148–149
U.S. confidence and, 146–148
U.S. previous strategic narcissism about, 92, 127–130
using decentralization and entrepreneurship to combat, 135–138, 139, 141–144
using freedom of expression to combat, 133�
��135, 139
using rule of law to combat, 139
China Radical Innovation 100 (CRI 100), intellectual property and, 115–116
China Telecom, 143
Chomsky, Noam, 229
Chongzhen, 96–97
Chun Doo-hwan, 359, 375
Chung Eui-yong, 345–346, 350–353, 355, 357–360, 364, 369, 371–374, 377, 379, 381–383, 392
Churchill, Winston, 19, 170–171
Clapper, James, 405, 489n10
Clausewitz, Carl von, 431
climate change, 414–421
Clinton, Bill
China and, 128
early internet and, 401–402
Iran and, 305
National Security Strategy of 2000, 13–14
North Korea and, 349
Clinton, Hillary Rodham, 81, 296
election of 2016 and, 46, 48, 49, 50, 51–52, 53
as Secretary of State, 65–66, 67, 178
coal power, 418–422
Coates, Dan, 226
Cohen, David, 52
Cohn, Gary, 366
Cold War, end of, 4–5
over-optimistic assumptions about, 10–19
pessimism and, 15
“Competitive Engagement” (Schadlow), 16–17
Cooperative Threat Reduction program, Russia and, 38
coronavirus, 105, 146, 148, 389, 423, 424
Corson, Neal, 425
Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, 34
Crane, Conrad, 242
Crimea, Russian annexation of, 1, 17–18, 27, 31–35, 54, 56–58, 62, 65–66, 124, 426
Crocker, Ryan, 176, 251
Crouch, J. D., 249
Cui Tiankai, 93, 148–149
Curtis, Lisa, 157–158, 209, 211–212
cyber-enabled information warfare
as arena of world competition, 18, 399–407
China and, 129–130, 401–402, 403
countering of, 71–78
Iran and, 333, 336
North Korea and, 402–403, 405
Russia and, 26, 27–28, 32, 45–52, 57–58, 66, 68, 71–75, 399–400, 402, 405
Dalai Lama, 107–108, 118–119
Daoud Khan, Mohammed, 182–183, 185, 479n2
Daqduq, Ali Mussa, 309
Daqneesh, Omran, 264
Battlegrounds Page 58