Eli handed Jim a printout of the diagram so he could take a closer look, then continued.
“The higher the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the less infrared radiation escapes and the more is radiated back to the Earth, warming it still further.
“The greenhouse effect is something we’ve known about for a long time, and it is a good thing. Without the heat-trapping effect of the atmosphere, the Earth’s natural average temperature would be about zero degrees Fahrenheit rather than the current fifty-eight degrees, and humankind would never have evolved. So, generally, the greenhouse effect is essential to our existence and continued survival. It is a very good thing, but of course, like most good things, you can have too much of it.
“If we go back to the early Industrial Age, the carbon dioxide concentration was about three hundred parts per million. Our models of how the greenhouse effect works predict that the increase in carbon dioxide since then to its current level of four hundred ppm would pretty much account for the increase in temperature that we’ve seen. These models could be wrong, as scientific models have been in the past, though the science involved is quite straightforward.
“So, it is possible that there is some other cause or causes for all or part of the recent global warming, but the best explanation is that it has been caused mainly by man-made emissions of carbon dioxide. The unfortunate corollary is that global warming will very likely continue and even accelerate unless emissions of carbon dioxide can be curtailed, with global average temperatures increasing by another four and a half degrees Fahrenheit to eight and a half degrees Fahrenheit.
“Mr. President, I know that’s a lot of technical information, but I think that a little more will help you grasp the whole picture. While it is true, as best we can tell, that the change in carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere as a result of man-made emissions is what is causing the greenhouse effect to grow stronger in recent decades, carbon dioxide is not the largest contributor to the greenhouse effect. Most of it actually comes from the much higher concentration of water vapour, about three times more than comes from carbon dioxide.”
The president responded, “So, let me see if I’ve got it so far. First, the Earth’s temperature has been rising based on the best measurement technology that we have, not perfectly steadily but reasonably so, over the last century and a half. Second, our atmosphere acts something like a greenhouse and always has, without which the Earth would be too cold to live on, and the physics of how this works are well understood. Third, the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has been increasing over this same period, which is clearly measurable. And carbon dioxide, though not the most powerful ingredient of our greenhouse by far, is nevertheless one of the ingredients and the only one that has changed significantly.”
“That’s all correct, sir, but another fact to provide further context is that the Earth has in the distant past seen much higher carbon dioxide concentrations than the current four hundred ppm, or than we will ever reach as a result of man-made emissions. For example, during the Cambrian period, five hundred million years ago, the concentration was as high as seven thousand ppm. That was a very warm period with a global average temperature about twelve degrees higher than at present, about seventy degrees Fahrenheit. That period lasted about fifty million years, and by its end there was little polar ice and sea level was about three hundred feet higher than at present.
“We also understand that there have been many very cold periods in the past — so-called ice ages. In fact, we are currently, that is, for the last ten thousand years or so, enjoying a warm spell within the Quaternary Ice Age, which began about 2.6 million years ago. Within the Quaternary Ice Age there have been fairly regular cycles of cooling periods, with glaciers advancing, followed by warming periods, such as the present, with glaciers shrinking. There were also at least four other ice ages prior to the Quaternary Period. The granddaddy of them all was the Cryogenian, about seven hundred million years ago, during which ice covered nearly the entire Earth.
“While man-made carbon dioxide emissions were obviously not a factor in these pronounced cooling and warming periods, it is likely that variations in carbon dioxide and oxygen concentrations resulting from natural causes were a contributing factor, though probably not the primary cause. Other factors include episodic events like large meteor strikes and super volcanoes, as well as recurring phenomena such as solar output cycles and variations in the Earth’s orbital path and axial tilt. In fact, it is the latter that appears to give rise to the cycles of warming and cooling within our current ice age.
“So, Mr. President, I don’t mean at all to suggest that man-made global warming won’t have some serious consequences, nor that we shouldn’t be doing what we can to curtail it. However, I thought you should know that we are talking about relatively small variations in temperature compared to what Mother Nature herself has been orchestrating over a longer time frame, and likely has in store for us in millennia to come.”
“Thank you, Eli,” the president said, “That’s a very clear refresher on what we think about anthropogenic global warming, and I appreciate the broader context you have provided. What are the consequences of continued warming?”
“Yes, Mr. President,” Eli continued, “first of course there is the direct consequence — higher temperatures, not likely as high as during the Cambrian but higher than we’ve seen in recorded history. The U.S. lies in the temperate zone, where this increase would not be dire. In fact, the northern United States, Canada and most of Europe would have more pleasant temperatures than at present. However, in the tropic zone, in places like India and large parts of Africa and Central and South America, the impact on human comfort and health would be very serious. Ironically, these areas have contributed almost nothing to creating global warming, at least so far; and they are also the areas with the least ability to moderate the impact of higher temperatures through air-conditioning.
“Then there are secondary consequences. The most notable of these will be a rise in sea levels of as much as five or six feet. It may not sound like much, but it would necessitate extensive diking and pumping to protect coastal cities and abandoning some coastal regions and island nations. Along with the higher temperatures, we will also see more extreme weather — stronger and more frequent tornados, devastating floods, severe droughts and wildfires. Some parts of the Earth may get a longer growing season, but for the most part, the temperature and weather extremes will adversely affect food production. Then there will be the impact on the plant and animal species that are unsuccessful at adapting, with many dying off — not that large scale species die-offs were uncommon during past climate changes. The warmer temperatures will also permit various types of insects and diseases to extend northward and southward from the tropics with impacts on human health, crops, cattle and forests.”
“Okay, Eli,” Jim interjected, “from what you’ve said I am understanding that global warming is a fact, that man-made carbon dioxide emissions are likely the cause even though more significant temperature variations have occurred in the past without any human involvement; and that, even if carbon dioxide emissions are not certain as the cause, the probable consequences are serious enough that we should take all reasonable steps to curtail our emissions as a matter of prudent risk management. Have I got it pretty much right so far?”
“Yes, Mr. President, I couldn’t sum it up any better than that.”
“Eli, I have found this briefing very interesting and informative, but I am at my limit for absorbing the details. I would really like to hear your thoughts on how much progress is being made around the world in curtailing greenhouse gas emissions, so I will see if Will can squeeze in another short session for us next week. Thank you, Eli.”
Eli Wayman walked out of the anteroom through the Oval Office and headed for his own office in the Old Executive Office Building next door. Eli found the new president respectful, cordial and attentive. He would do anything he could to h
elp him make the world a better place, and in months to come that help would certainly be needed.
Chapter 5
August 15, 2027
Near Idaho Falls, Idaho
Peter was cruising peacefully northwest along U.S. Route 26 toward Idaho Falls in the late afternoon. His twin cam 95 CID Harley Softail was loafing along barely above idle at the fifty-miles-per-hour speed limit. He liked the bike for its comfortable ride, and it was reassuring in his line of work to know that he could spin it up to triple that speed if needed. Traffic was light on the Swan Valley Highway that afternoon. He could have safely cruised at double the limit, but he was taking it easy, partly because he enjoyed the scenic ride along the Palisades Reservoir and the Snake River, but mostly because he had no wish to attract any attention from the state police given the amount of meth he was carrying.
Peter Poplinski didn’t think of himself as a bad man, though he certainly didn’t think of himself as a good man either. In point of fact, he didn’t think of himself or others in those terms at all. He simply lacked that frame of reference entirely, and always had. However, those who knew him would describe him as a very bad man who would resort to extreme violence in the blink of an eye if opposed, but also as a very smart man. An undergraduate in clinical psychology would quickly identify him as having ASPD, or antisocial personality disorder, given his disregard for the rights of others and his total focus on serving his own needs. Peter lacked a conscience and moral compass.
At age thirty-eight, Peter stood six-foot-five and weighed two hundred and fifty pounds. During his eight years in the Idaho Maximum Security Institution for voluntary manslaughter, he had invested every free minute in the gym, and he had rarely missed a day on the weights ever since. He was well built and very attractive. He looked about ten years younger than he was. He had a powerful libido, which he was usually able to satisfy with willing female companions given his extreme physical attractiveness.
Peter was the current head of Satan’s Wheels motorcycle club, which was prospering under his leadership. The gang’s principal occupation was to serve as a courier for drugs moving from out of state to the centers of Boise, Twin Falls and Idaho Falls, as well as occasional longer runs into Portland, Oregon. The gang also took on enforcement contracts, including executions, when available.
Peter had only been sent up the once, though he was suspected in several other homicides for which no witnesses existed, or at least none willing to testify and endure the terrible reprisals that the Satan’s Wheels had developed a reputation for exacting on snitches.
Peter planned to gas up and turn south on the back roads well before Idaho Falls. He wanted to avoid the traffic in and around the Falls and reduce the risk of a fender bender or some other chance encounter with law enforcement. He had stopped for gas at a station right at the turn off up to Ririe on the way out from Idaho Falls a few days earlier, and a young girl serving gas had caught his interest. She had been wearing tight jean shorts that emphasized her firm, round butt, and a T-shirt that her young, unrestrained breasts tented out in a continuously moving double crest. Long, straight brown hair cascaded down her back to just below her waist. She was breathtakingly cute and probably not more that eighteen years old.
As Peter pulled into the station and up to the pumps he spotted the girl in an apparent wrestling match with three young gorillas that looked like college football jocks. He shut down the bike and heard her yell, “Get your hands off me, you pigs, and I’ll give you your lousy change.”
Peter could see one of the boys had both her arms pinned straight up above her head from behind with his left arm, while his right arm was up underneath her T-shirt having a good grope. The two others stood with their backs to Peter, holding their phones out and waiting for the T-shirt to be pulled up over her head. Peter didn’t consider this behavior wrong. It was more that, in his mind, he already viewed the girl as belonging to him, and these three were handling his property.
He got off the bike and removed a short leather blackjack from a pocket. He didn’t raise any warning or telegraph his intentions in any way. In ten quick steps he was on them. The first of the two with their backs to him never knew what hit him as he dropped from a slash of the blackjack across the back of his head, just above the hairline. It wasn’t a killing blow, not because Peter had any compunction about killing, but because that would just create too many complications at present.
The second of the two was only beginning to turn to face the sudden attack when Peter delivered a brutal kick to the side of his knee, snapping it like a dry stick despite the powerful thigh and calf muscles above and below. Number two dropped to the pavement screaming in pain. Orthopedic surgery could perform near miracles these days, but the boy’s football days were definitely over.
By this time the third boy had released his grip on the girl and was backing away, having sized up the attacker.
Although there wasn’t much difference in weight between the two of them, the boy sensed the pure animal ferocity of the biker and wanted no part of it. He was surprised and relieved when Peter relaxed and commanded, “Stand still, arms out to the side and slowly pass me your driver’s license.”
Wondering if this frightening beast was in fact some type of law enforcement, the boy meekly complied with Peter’s authoritative demand. Once he had the license, Peter instructed the boy to drag his moaning friend over to their car and shove him into the back seat. Peter followed behind with the inert form of the first one he had dropped, removing that boy’s wallet and extracting his license as well. He also took the license from the moaner. Then he placed all three licenses on the car’s rear fender and took their picture with his phone before tossing them into the back seat.
In a quiet but firm tone, Peter spoke in the ear of the bewildered college boy, “Get into your car and drive. Don’t stop until you get to Portland. That will give you time to figure out a better excuse for how your friend broke his knee than that the three of you were beaten while molesting a young girl. I don’t care what it is, but if you mention me, I will hear about it, and I will come visiting both you and your family, and there won’t be anyone left to talk about that visit. The same goes for your buddies. Make sure they understand.”
The shaken boy got in and drove off. Peter looked around. The whole drama hadn’t lasted more than three minutes. The girl was standing about fifteen feet away, and no one else was outside the gas station to have seen or heard anything. Peter walked slowly toward the girl.
“Are you okay,” he said, “Did those assholes hurt you?”
The girl replied, “No, I’m fine. I don’t think they would really have done anything, and it was mostly my fault anyway. After they had me clean all their windows, and check their oil and water, they weren’t giving me any tip, just rude comments, so I kept a couple of bucks of their change. Anyway, thanks for helping me out. My name is Brook. Do you need gas? What were you telling that guy?”
“Hi Brook, yes I need to fill up my cycle. Call me Stef, its short for Stephan. I was just telling him to get his friend to a hospital and to think twice before bothering a pretty girl next time.”
After she topped off his gas and brought his change, he said, “You can keep that, just to show that not all of us are like those jerks. I am heading for a party now. You’re welcome to join. When are you finished here?”
“I am pretty much finished for today now,” she said. “In fact, this is my last day. I already have my check and was just doing those guys as my last customer before hitching into the Falls. Could I get a lift home after the party?”
Peter was amazed that it could be that easy. “Sure,” he said, “I’ll be happy to drop you off. What’s your address? I’ll just put it into my GPS.”
Minutes later they were underway, the girl holding him loosely around the waist for balance. Peter backtracked east on the highway and turned south on Meadow Creek Road.
As they slowed for the turn, Brook said, “Wouldn’t it be quicker to go west
into the Falls.”
Before throttling back up Peter replied, “We are going to a club house outside of the Falls, and this is the best way. Hang on tight.”
Brook was beginning to wonder if she had made a mistake in accepting this guy’s invitation. She had just broken up with her boyfriend Dan, who would otherwise have been picking her up and driving her home. They’d been dating all through their senior year at I.F. High School and she liked him but was tired of having to fend off his wandering hands every time they were alone. She had been raised as a good Mormon girl and, though she didn’t follow many of the rules strictly, she wasn’t ready to go as far as his hormones were insisting on. She had thought that a little cooling-off period would make him take her more seriously. This older guy was really nice, had a cool cycle that would get lots of attention in her neighborhood, and was really good-looking. At first she had thought that going to a party outside her usual crowd would further make her point with Dan. Now, she was starting to worry.
Brook’s worries grew when after half an hour her ride pulled over and off the road in the middle of nowhere. She hadn’t seen another vehicle or a house since just after leaving the highway. She asked, “What’s going on? Why have we stopped?” As she prepared to run, though, she saw no option but to dash into the woods and hope she could lose him.
The man she knew as Stef replied, “Don’t worry, we’re almost there, but our club is a secret club, so guests always need to be blindfolded when we first bring them, until we know them better. It is just a club rule.” And that was true, because he ran the club, and he had just made it a rule.
The man still seemed very friendly and nice. Brook wasn’t sure anything was wrong. She doubted she could outrun him, and even if she could, she knew she was miles and miles away from anywhere she could get help. She was still worried but she didn’t want to insult the man who had helped her out and had been nothing but pleasant to her. So she went along with the blindfold.
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