in financial turbulence index, 407n6
during global crises, 269
origins of concept, 398n9
in Second Great Contraction, 240, 245
in U.S. subprime crisis, 222
sustainable debt, establishment of, 26, 30
Swaziland: banking crises in, 383t
debt reversals in, 84b
Sweden: banking crises in, 159, 231, 383–84t
currency debasement in, 177
duration of crises in, 235
inflation crises in, 185
Switzerland: banking crises in, 384t
recession of 1990s in, 230
synchronicity, cross-country, of global financial crises, 260, 265–69
systemic banking crises: aftermath of, 165, 166–67, 223–25
bank runs in, 144
definition of, 10, 11t
exchange rate crises in, 145
as relic of past, xxxii, 141. See also banking crises
Taiwan: banking crises in, 385t
inflation crises in, 185
sovereign risk rating of, 284
Tajikistan, banking crises in, 385t
Tanzania, banking crises in, 385t
taxation: financial repression as form of, 143
inflation as form of, 124–25, 400n7
tax revenues: in aftermath of crises, 224, 232
banking crises’ effects on, 142, 166–69, 224, 232
technological innovation, negative effects of, 179
technology industry bubble, xlv, 162, 171
Templars, 69b
tesobonos: in de-dollarization, 193–95
in Mexican domestic default, 14, 64, 108, 108b–109b, 193–95
Thailand: banking crises in, 385–86t
debt crisis of 1990s in, 18, 394n11
debt reversals in, 84b
as default virgin, 44
domestic debt in, foreign currency–linked, 108, 109b
duration of crises in, 235
financial turbulence index for, 259
housing prices in, 159
third parties: gaming of, 62
in partial default, 62, 397n16. See also international institutions
this-time-is-different syndrome, 15–20
confidence in, xxxix, 15
definition of, xxxiv, 1, 15, 210
historical examples of, 15–20, 171–72
and inflation crises, 187, 291
latest version of, 290–92
origins of term, xxxvii, 394n10
persistence of, xxxiv–xxxv, 287
promoters of, xxxiv
in Second Great Contraction, 20, 290–92
universality of, 287
in U.S. subprime crisis, 20, 171–72, 203, 208–10, 213–15
time series, macroeconomic, 295–326
Togo, banking crises in, 386t
too big to fail, U.S. as, 405n33
total public debt: data on, 41–42, 330–34t
definition of, 9b
domestic debt as share of, average, 41, 103–5, 104f, 105f
ratios to revenue, at time of external default, 120–23, 120t, 121f, 122f
trade, international: data on, 320–22t
effects of default on, 57
in global financial crises, 263–64, 265f, 266–70, 266f, 267f
partial default and, 62, 397n16
trade balance. See current account balance
transfer of debt, odious debt doctrine on, 63–64
transmission of crises, 248. See also contagion
transparency: and crises of confidence, xliv
in public debt, lack of, xxxi, xxxiii–xxxiv, xliv, 137–38, 281–82
Trinidad and Tobago, banking crises in, 386t
Tunisia, banking crises in, 386t
external default by, 92
turbulence index. See financial turbulence index
Turkey: banking crises in, 386t
currency debasement in, 177, 179
external default by, 54, 83b, 94
inflation crises in, 185
sovereign risk rating of, 287
twin crises, 270
Uganda, banking crises in, 386t
Ukraine, banking crises in, 386–87t
UN. See United Nations
underemployment, 405n5
unemployment: in aftermath of crises, 224, 227–29, 229f
in Great Depression, 225, 228, 237, 268–69, 269t
international comparison of, 228–29, 268–69, 405n5
United Kingdom: banking crises in, 141, 150, 158, 387–88t
bank runs in, xl–xli
Barings crisis of 1890 in, 242
currency debasement in, 177
current account balance in, 244
as default virgin, 44
as financial center, 260b
housing prices in, 159
inflation crises in, 182. See also Britain; England
United Nations (UN): Department of Economic Affairs, 41, 124f
on domestic public debt, 104f, 105, 105f, 106f, 107t
on national accounts, 39
on public debt, 41, 121f, 122f, 123f
Statistical Yearbook, 124f, 328t, 329t, 330t, 331t, 332t, 333t, 334t, 335t, 336t, 337t, 338t, 339t, 340t, 341t, 342t, 343t
United States: banking crises in, 141, 150, 158, 206, 226, 389–90t
current account balance of, 200, 208–15
as default virgin, 44
domestic debt in, 400n5
duration of crises in, 235, 237
as financial center, 260b
financial industry bubbles in, 162
gunboat diplomacy of, 54, 83b
housing prices in, 159, 207, 207f, 402n25
inflation crises in, xxxii–xxxiii, 180, 185
liberalization in, 156
in Mexican domestic default, 14, 108b
presidential election of 2008 in, 53
savings and loan crisis of 1984 in, 215
as too big to fail, 405n33
trade during global crises, 264
transparency in, lack of, 137–38, 282
United States subprime crisis of 2007, 199–222
aftermath of, 222, 405n33
antecedents of, 215–22
bank runs in, 145
confidence in, xli
contagion of, 240–47
current account balance before, debate over, 200, 208–15
global historical context for, 204–8
versus Great Depression, 200–201
housing prices in, 207–8, 207f, 226
illiquid assets in, 90
indicators of, xxix, xliii, 200, 216–22
versus postwar crises, 215–22, 216t, 225–30
presidential election of 2008 in, 53
press reactions to, 199
run-up to, xxix, xliii, 200, 208–15
start of, 206, 213
this-time-is-different syndrome in, 20, 171–72, 203, 208–10, 213–15
transparency in, lack of, 282. See also Great Contraction, Second
Uruguay: Argentine crises and, 407n12
banking crises in, 206, 391t
Brady bonds in, 84b, 85b
debt crisis of 1990s and early 2000s in, 19
domestic debt in, 399n2
financial turbulence index for, 250
usury laws, 69b
valuation, in this-time-is-different syndrome, xxxiv, 1, 15, 210, 281, 287
Venezuela: banking crises in, 391t
external default by, 67, 92, 98
inflation crises in, 187
U.S. gunboat diplomacy in, 54
Vietnam: banking crises in, 392t
Brady bonds in, 84b
virgins, default, 44, 45–46t
wage flexibility, 229
war(s): currency debasement during, 6, 177, 178f
default after failure in, 70b
domestic public debt during, 65
global crises during, 270
short-term financing of, 70b. See also specifi
c wars
WEO. See World Economic Outlook
Wile E. Coyote moment, 211, 404n17
World Bank, 394n3
on best practices, 401n10
in debt crisis of 1990s, 94
Global Development Finance (GDF), 23t, 24t, 25t, 27t, 40–41, 42, 332t, 336t, 337t, 338t, 341t
on national accounts, 39
on public debt, 40–41
World Economic Outlook (WEO), IMF, 25f, 35, 36, 40, 78f, 131f, 132f, 134f, 135f, 165f, 166f, 214, 219f, 220f, 231t, 262, 263, 263f, 264f, 266f, 296t, 297t, 298t, 299t, 300t, 301t, 307t, 308t, 310t, 320t, 321t, 322t, 323t, 394n2, 400n2, 405n7, 407n15
World Economic Survey, League of Nations, 263, 266f, 268t, 269t, 407n18
World War I: banking crises in, 205
inflation crises before, 5
this-time-is-different syndrome after, 15–17
World War II: banking crises after, 215–16, 216t
in financial turbulence index, 255
inflation crises before versus after, 4–5
this-time-is-different syndrome before, 15–17
Yearbook, UN, 124f, 328t, 329t, 330t, 331t, 332t, 333t, 334t, 335t, 336t, 337t, 338t, 339t, 340t, 341t, 342t, 343t
Yemen, banking crises in, 392t
Zambia, banking crises in, 392t
Zimbabwe: banking crises in, 392t
currency conversions in, 6–7, 7t
inflation crises in, 5, 185, 187
This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Page 39