106. Unlike the critical papers by Black and Nagin as well as Ludwig, the paper by Dezhbakhsh and Rubin also critically examined my data, but I did not think it would be of general enough interest to discuss in the text (Dezhbakhsh and Rubin, "Lives Saved or Lives Lost?" pp. 468-74). What they do is run a regression over only those observations in which the right-to-carry law is in effect; they then take this regression and plug in
NOTES TO PAGES 232-234/305
those observations during 1992 for which the right-to-carry laws are not in effect. This last step generates what they claim are predicted values for what the crime rates would be in those counties without the laws if they had the laws. They then compare what the actual crime rates were in the counties without the laws with their predicted crime rates and take the difference. If the actual crime rate is greater than the predicted, they claim that this shows that the law would have lowered the crime rate. If the actual crime rate is less than the predicted value, they claim that this shows the law would have raised the crime rate.
This approach makes no sense to me. It is throwing out all the information on the before-and-after change in crime rates that occurs when states change their laws. The method also eliminates the role of fixed effects. All the predicted crime rates in the counties without right-to-carry laws in 1992 are assumed to have the same intercept value from the regression, since there is no county dummy to use in making the predicted value. If the left-out county that is represented by the intercept happens to have a low crime rate, it will make the right-to-carry laws look good. If the reverse is true, the right-to-carry laws will look as if the law is increasing the crime rate. On average, randomly picking one will produce no systematic effect and the predicted values will lie on both sides of the actual crime rates.
107. William Bartley and Mark Cohen, "The Effect of Concealed Weapons Laws: An Extreme Bound Analysis," Economic Inquiry 36 (Apr. 1998): 259. See also William Alan Bartley, "Will Rationing Guns Reduce Crime?" Economics Letters 62 (1999): 241-43; and Carlisle E. Moody, "Testing for the Effects of Concealed Weapons Laws: Specification Errors and Robustness," William and Mary College, Department of Economics, working paper, December 1999, p. 13.
108. David Olson and Michael Maltz, "Magic Bullets, Deterrence, and Gun Laws," Loyola University Chicago working paper, December 1999.
109. Florenz Plassman and T. Nicolaus Tideman, "Does the Right to Carry Concealed Handguns Deter Countable Crimes? Only a Count Analysis Can Say," State University of New York at Binghampton working paper, May 19,1999, p. 22. See also Glenn W Harrison, David Kennison, and Katherine M. Macedon, "Legal Guarantee of the Right to Bear Arms: Can It Be Justified Empirically?" University of South Carolina working paper, December 1999.
110. Florenz Plassman and T. Nicholaus Tideman, "Geographical and Temporal Variation in the Effects of Right-to-Carry Laws on Crime," Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University working paper, November 17, 1999. Both of Plassman and Tideman's papers use a Poisson process to handle the low number of expected crimes per county observation and this allows them to solve the problem of missing observations that has plagued other papers using this data.
111. William F. Shughart n, "More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding Crime and Gun Control Laws: Review," pp. 978—80; and Benson, "Review of More Guns, Less Crime," pp. 309—13.
112. Benson, "Review of More Guns, Less Crime" p. 309.
113. These reviews during 1998 have appeared in the Dallas Morning News (Stan Liebo-witz at the University of Texas at Dallas), American Enterprise (Robert Cottrol at George Washington University), the Weekly Standard (Nelson Lund at George Mason University Law School), National Review (John O. McGinnis at Cardozo School of Law), and Reason Magazine (Dan Polsby at Northwestern University).
114. Janelle Hartman, "Assailant Gets Shot by Victim," Eugene (OR) Register Guard, Mar. 11, 1998, p. 1.
115. Nicole Marshall, "Concealed Gun Carrier Subdues Suspect: Man Reportedly Had Snatched Toddler," Tulsa World, Jan. 31, 1998.
116. Frank J. Murray, "Arizona Gun Owner's Courage Led to Scary Arrests," Washington Times, May 2, 1999, p. C8.
306 / NOTES TO PAGE 234
117. Laurie Mason, "Customer Stops Would-Be Robber," Bucks County Courier Times, Dec. 13, 1998, p. 7C.
118. Edward W. Lempinen, "Robber Shot Dead," Newsday, Aug. 3, 1999, p. A3; "Concealed Carry Permit Pays Off," Local Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky TV 9 Evening News, Aug. 19, 1999; Tom Jackman and Maria Glod, "A Glimmer of Hope, Then Violent Death," Washington Post, June 21, 1999, p. Bl; "Carjacking Suspect Critically Wounded," Arizona Republic, June 5, 1999, p. B2; and Joe Brogan, "Rent Collector Shoots, Kills Riviera Robber," Palm Beach Post, Jan. 14, 1999, p. Bl.
A case from the end of 1998 that deserves some mention involved an eighty-one-year-old Chicago native who defended himself by illegally carrying a concealed handgun—a gun that he wasn't even allowed to own legally in Chicago, let alone carry with him.
In the pre-dawn hours Tuesday, 81-year-old Bruno Kosinski looked like an easy mark for a robbery. Kosinski, a frail man with thinning white hair who shuffles his feet as he walks slightly hunched over, was getting into his car in Ukrainian Village when he felt something wet on his head. In a few brief moments, two teenagers allegedly squirted pepper spray in his face, pushed him to the ground, took his wallet and, still unsatisfied, threatened to kill him, police said. Kosinski did something authorities said was rare: The 5-foot-5 elderly man used a concealed handgun he carries in his pants. Without saying a word, he got to his feet and fired once.... Kosinski, admitting he illegally carried a concealed handgun, was
unapologetic. "I don't feel at all sorry that it happened," said Kosinski "The
least that I could do was defend myself." (Bechetta Jackson and Todd Lightly, "Aged Hold-Up Victim Shoots Teen Suspect," Chicago Tribune, Dec. 8, 1998, sec. 2, p. 8)
119. Mene Tekel Upharsin, "Homeowner Grabs Gun for Self-Defense, Assists Police in Capture of Escaped Murderer," Associated Press Newswire, Aug. 21, 1999, 8:37 EDT. What would have become a multiple-victim public shooting at a business in July 1999 was stopped by a person with a concealed handgun ("Gunman Turns Weapon on Gun Store Employees, Is Wounded in Shootout," St. Louis Post-Dispatch (from Reuters), July 7, 1999, p. All; and see also Thomas Sowell, "Why Does Media Hide Benefits of Arming Citizens?" Bergen County (NJ) Record, July 19, 1999, p. L3). Typical is the story of a Greenville, North Carolina, restaurant owner who prevented a robbery with a gun that he carried with him all the time "in the small of his back" (Travis Fain, "Man Shot, Killed in Attempted Robbery," Daily Reflector, June 2, 1999, p. Bl). Other articles on prevented robberies from June 1999 can be found in the Providence Journal, June 18, 1999; the Prescott (AZ) Daily Courier, June 13, 1999; the Augusta (GA) Chronicle, June 16, 1999; and the Aiken (SC) Standard, June 2, 1999.
120. "Man Charged in Robbery Hurt in Intimidation Bid," Buffalo News, Jan. 16, 1999; "Cops: Woman Shot by Man She Tried to Rob," Orlando Sentinel (from Associated Press), Jan. 10, 1999, p. B4; Seth Muller, "Homeowner Fires .357 at Night Burglar," Martinsburg (WV) Journal, Mar. 2, 1999; Valerie Bauertein, "Woman Kills an Intruder in Her Home," Winston-Salem Journal, Mar. 2, 1999, p. Al; "Woman Shoots Golf Stalker to Death during Attack," Palm Beach Post (from Associated Press), May 12,1999, p. All; Kirk Swauger, "Shooter's Brother: Break-in Not First," Johnstown (PA) Tribune-Democrat, Apr. 10, 1999, p. Al; Bill Blair, "West End Man Slays Intruder," Johnstown (PA) Tribune-Democrat, Apr. 9, 1999, p. Al; Bill Hanna, "Robbery Victim Shoots Suspect," Fort Worth Star-Telegram, June 15, 1999; Mark Duncan, "Hall of Fame Cowboy Stems Tragedy at Ranch: Family Survives Knife Attack," Yavapai County (AZ) Daily Courier, June 13,1999, p. Al; Dan Richardson, "Armed Homeowner Drives Off Intruder," Valley News (VT), July 2,1999; Heather Romero, "Intruder Is Wounded As Shots Fly 'All Over,'" Arizona Daily Star, July 3, 1999, p IB; Beena A. Hyatt, "Intruder Is Killed in Home," Chattanooga Times, July 22,1999, p. Bl; Kate Folmar and Luise Roug, "Late-Night Intruder Gets More Than He Bargained For," Los Angel
es Times, Aug. 2, 1999, Orange
NOTES TO PAGES 235-241/307
County edition, p. Bl; and "Homeowner Shoots Man Climbing into Window," Knoxville (TN) Knox-News Sentinel, Aug. 1, 1999.
121. While I find the claims greatly exaggerated, another recent study has come out claiming that sixty-four children under the age of two die every year from sleeping with their parents (Shari Roan, "Baby's First Year: Dangerous to Doze with Baby Alongside?" Los Angeles Times, Oct. 4, 1999, p. SI).
122. Brenda Rodriguez, "Notes Begin to Tell Story of Rampage in Atlanta: Killer Wanted to Exact Revenge," Dallas Morning News, July 31, 1999, p. 1A.
123. Rhonda Cook, "To the Rescue: Salesman Grabs Gun, Prevents Tragedy," Atlanta Journal and Constitution, Aug. 3, 1999, IB; Lyda Longa and David Pendered, "Armed Patient Shot in Grady," Atlanta Journal and Constitution, Aug. 4, 1999, p. IB; Hannity and Colmes, Fox News Network, Aug. 11, 1999 (21:30 EST); and "Armed Georgia Defenders Thwart Two Gunmen," Washington Times (from Reuters), Aug. 4, 1999, p. A9.
124. Carol Robinson, "Gunman Opens Fire at Alabama Business," New Orleans Times-Picayune, Aug. 6, 1999 p. A17.
125. Editorial, "Lethal Weapon," Daily News of Los Angeles, May 6, 1999, p. N20.
126. Elaine Gale, "Grieving Mother Haunted by Crash Scene," Los Angeles Times, May 6, 1999, p. Al.
127. A Nexis search of news stories for the one week after both incidents indicates that Buford Furrow was mentioned in the news about five times as often as Steve Abrams, and that while news accounts of Furrow tended to be full-feature news stories, virtually all of the mentions of Mr. Abrams were fairly minor recounts of the Associated Press story that ran on him. Later in the day it was discovered that Furrow had killed a U.S. Post Office worker, but the initial news coverage was based upon the attack at the community center.
Other writers have done an excellent job of pointing out these biases (Sowell, "Why Does Media Hide Benefits of Arming Citizens?" p. L3; JefTJacoby, "Media Bias Revealed by Crimes That Go Unnoticed," San Jose Mercury News, Aug. 24, 1999).
128. This total includes 427 incendiary bombings. Eleven deaths and 29 injuries were classified as "noncriminal" (Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms, "Arson and Explosives: Incidents Report, 1997" [Department of the Treasury, 1999]). For an example of a recent knife attack that injured several people on an Amtrak train see Editorial, "Speak Up," Dayton Daily News, Sept. 2, 1999.
129. For example, CNN's Late Edition with WolfBlitzer, May 2, 1999, 12:00 a.m. EST.
130. Fox Butterfield, "Study Exposes Illegal Traffic in New Guns," New York Times, Feb. 21, 1999, sec. 1, p. 22.
131. Tom Diaz, Making a Killing: The Business of Guns in America (New York: New Press, 1999).
132. Teichroeb, "Hearing Today for Boy Expelled over Squirt Gun," p. Bl; Mike Mar-tindale, "OU Acts after Police Take Youth into Custody after Call," Detroit News, Aug. 13, 1999; Pete Falcone, "Student Expelled for Toting BB Gun," Bloomington (IL) Pantograph, May 27, 1999, p. A2; Cathy Cummins, "Expulsion Law's Author Says Schools Have Gone Too Far," Rocky Mountain News, Feb. 23, 1998, p. A4; and "Howitzer Picture Cut From Yearbook," Associated Press Newswire, Oct. 28, 1999, 3:16 EDT These different incidents were said to violate schools' "zero tolerance" policy.
133. This information on the number of words in different gun-control laws was compiled by Alan Korwin (Alan Korwin, The California Gun Owner's Guide [Phoenix: Bloomfield Press, 1999], The Texas Gun Owner's Guide [Phoenix: Bloomfield Press, 1998]; and Gun Laws of America [Phoenix: Bloomfield Press, 1997]).
134. From the Web site of the Australia Bureau of Statistics at www.abs.gov.au.
135. Nicholas Rufford, "Official: More Muggings in England Than US," Sunday Times (London), Oct. 11, 1998.
308 / NOTES TO PAGES 241-253
137. Paul M. Barrett, "Lawsuits Trigger Gun Firms' Bankruptcy Filings," Wall Street Journal, Sept. 13, 1999, p. BIO. The story lists three major gun makers filing for bankruptcy: Sundance Industries, Davis Industries, and Lorcin Engineering Company.
138. Vanessa O'Connell and Douglas A. Blackman, "New UPS Rules Are Latest Jolt to Gun Makers," Wall Street Journal, Oct. 7, 1999, p. Bl. There is at least some skepticism of UPS's motives. As one large handgun dealer said, "We get as many handguns from UPS here as anybody. We haven't missed a handgun in years. This is not a problem. It is just window dressing to make a political statement" (Timothy Burn, "UPS Won't Ship Guns on Ground: Air Delivery OK," Washington Times, Oct. 8, 1999, p. Al).
139. Terry L. Anderson, Charles W Baird, Randy E. Barnett, et al. [letter signed by 290 academics], "Disarming Good People," Washington Times, June 16, 1999, p. A17. The correct number of 294 signatories was noted in John R. Lott, Jr., "More Gun Controls? They Haven't Worked in the Past," Wall Street Journal, June 17, 1999, p. A26.
140. Dale Anema, "A Father at Columbine High," American Enterprise, Sept./Oct. 1999, pp. 48-50.
APPENDIX ONE
1. Although this jargon may appear overwhelming, it is actually fairly simple. Consider the following example. Suppose we wish to present findings that height and SAT scores are correlated among college-bound students. Instead of reporting that an additional inch is related to an increase in test scores of so many points, we can compare standard-deviation changes, which would be equivalent to reporting the results as comparisons of changes in percentile height with percentile changes in the SAT-scores.
2. To phrase this in terms of the earlier discussion of standard deviations, with a symmetric distribution, there is a 32 percent probability that a variable will take on a value that is more than one standard deviation different from its mean, and only a five percent probability that it will be more than two standard deviations away from the mean.
APPENDIX THREE
1. U.S. Department of Justice, Crime in the United States, 1994 (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice, 1994.) I also wish to thank Tom Bailey of the FBI and Jeff Maurer of the Department of Health and Human Services for answering questions concerning the data used in this paper.
2. The Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research number for this data set was 6387, and the principle investigator was James Alan Fox of Northeastern University College of Criminal Justice.
3. Dropping the zero crime values from the sample made the "shall-issue" coefficients larger and more significant, but doing the same thing for the accident-rate regressions did not alter "shall-issue" coefficients. (See also the discussion at the end of the section headed "Using County and State Data for the United States" in chapter 4.
4. For further descriptions of the procedures for calculating intercensus estimates of population, see ICPSR (8384): U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, In-tercensal Estimates of the Population of Counties by Age, Sex, and Race (United States), 1970—1980 (Ann Arbor, MI: ICPSR, Winter 1985). See also Bureau of the Census, Methodology for Experimental Estimates of the Population of Counties by Age and Sex: July 1, 1975, Current Population Reports, series P-23, no. 103, and Census of Population, 1980: County Population by Age, Sex, Race, and Spanish Origin (Preliminary OMB-Consistent Modified Race).
5. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Methodology for Experimental Estimates of the Population of Counties by Age and Sex: July 1, 1975, Current Population Reports,
NOTES TO PAGE 254/309
series P-23, no. 103; see also Bureau of the Census, Census of Population, 1980: County Population by Age, Sex, Race, and Spanish Origin (Preliminary OMB-Consistent Modified Race), pp. 19—23.
6. U.S. Department of Commerce, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 114th ed., table 746, p. 487.
7. Thomas B. Marvell and Carlisle E. Moody, "The Impact of Enhanced Prison Terms for Felonies Committed with Guns," Criminology 33 (May 1995): 259—60.
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