“Yes, I just read the alert on my BlackBerry,” said Jennifer.
“I want to institute daily briefings at 4 p.m. each day and I want you to do the briefings at HHS. You can have whatever experts you want present. We will do the first briefing tomorrow afternoon. I will announce this to the press this evening. Have a briefing paper ready for the President by 1:00 p.m. tomorrow. Any questions?”
“Have you cleared this with the President?” she asked. “Earlier today he told me that he wanted to keep the lead for all public statements at the White House.”
“Yes, I just discussed it with him,” said Jim, cleverly disguising a lie. What he really meant was that he was going to discuss this with him after they hung up. “I just need to remind everyone involved that they need to stick to the script, so pick your participants with care.”
“Of course we will. You don’t have to remind me. We are all team players and are extremely loyal to the President. I will contact you tomorrow morning with the information you need. Good evening,” said Jennifer as she hung up.
Jennifer looked over at her husband and said, “The nerve of that son of a bitch! First he bosses me around and then questions my loyalty to the President. He has to be reined in. I’ll make damned sure of that!”
Katie continued her work at her office, and came to a preliminary conclusion that there were six blood tests that stood out as possible indicators of the disease: Chloride, homocistein, HDL Cholesterol, ALT, ESR and High B12. She wondered if any of them were due to the deceased’s age or due to the malady, and she couldn’t be sure the data she received on the normal test results was consistent with the data she had been using with her longevity tests. She needed to check.
Katie did a quick review of the blood test data she had been using over the last seven years with her longevity project. She determined that four of the blood tests she had included were among the six blood tests she had identified as possible key indicators for this new disease. She identified that the levels in these four tests had slowly started to increase about five years earlier. The change had been so gradual she concluded it was just due to the increase in age – maybe they had been normal abnormals. After all, who wouldn’t want higher HDL? But she now was starting to question her earlier hypothesis. Maybe something had changed five years earlier. Maybe this increase was an indicator of the body trying to fight off a new disease. Had she missed something that would now turn out to be important to the survival of the human race? The thought made her shudder. If she was right, then potentially, everyone on earth could have silently been exposed to this new disease.
“Oh shit,” said Katie out loud.
She sat in silence, searching for answers and a plan. It was now 11 p.m. and she needed to get some sleep so she would be prepared for work tomorrow. Before she left the building she decided to stop by the lab to check on progress there. A night shift, set up specifically to cover the epidemic, was on duty analyzing the latest lab samples. The state-of-the-art facility allowed them to add new data to the mix every three hours. She recognized one of the laboratory technicians from church.
“Hi Patti. How is work going tonight?” said Katie.
“We are really busy, sorting the data for analysis. I hope they figure out what this is soon. In the meantime, this blood work should provide part of the puzzle.”
“I am working on the analysis of the blood in particular right now. But what I need is another basis for comparison. Would it be possible for you to draw some blood from me and then analyze it with the other batches you are doing? I think it would be a great baseline for the modeling I am doing.”
“No problem. Roll up your sleeve and I will be back in a second,” said Patti.
Katie knew this wasn’t normal protocol, but she knew this is what Herb would do. She had worked closely with Herb and he was now dead from this disease. She needed to know if it had been transmitted to her and one way to check this was to have her blood analyzed. She had a hunch it would provide some valuable evidence.
After Patti drew the blood they chatted for a few more minutes. The results would take about twelve hours to come through, and she assured Katie that as soon as she got to work tomorrow afternoon, she would send the results to her via email. Katie thanked her and headed for home.
Rob was waiting for her when she arrived around midnight. They had a lot to talk about. Rob had good news and Katie had bad news. Katie couldn’t help blame herself for what she thought was an oversight in her analysis of the aging data. Rob consoled her, telling her whatever is going on isn’t her fault, and that something much bigger was in play. Katie was exhausted, and the wine Rob had given her helped her relax and let go of some of the stress of the day.
They talked, Rob filling her in on his day, while offering her support. It was close to 1:00 a.m. when she looked at her watch, and she was very aware that she had to be back in the office by 8 a.m. and needed to sleep. But sleep didn’t come easily to either of them. Rob was tossing and turning, his head full of Katie’s worries and his own excitement over the project at the Center. And Katie’s mind was spinning with the worry that, with her close contact to Herb, she may have exposed her family to a potentially deadly disease. She could feel the weight of that burden, coupled with her responsibilities at work, pressing down on her. Three days ago, she was excited at the prospect of the aging conference. She had been thrown one hell of a curve ball and she felt that everything was out of control, and that her life’s work was now falling apart.
CHAPTER 13
Beth was already at the office when Kate arrived just before 8 a.m.
“Hi Chief, how’s it going today?” asked Beth.
“Honestly? I’m exhausted. I was here until late, and I’m still trying to wake up after a pretty awful night’s sleep. I managed to get a lot of work done, though, and am pleased with the progress on the analysis so far. Just give me a minute, I have something I’d like you to do for me that would really help.”
Katie promptly logged onto her computer and explained to Beth that she needed her to go through the 1,768 unread emails in her account and categorize them in order of importance.
“No problem, Katie. I live for challenges like this,” laughed Beth.
“Great. I’ll just go through and pull out any from Sarah, and then you can make a start.” Beth gave her a reassuring smile, and Katie gave a sigh of relief.
An email from Sarah stated that she needed to provide an initial assessment of the analysis by noon today, ready for input into a briefing paper for the Secretary and the President. Katie was relieved that five new sets of data had been sent for her to upload, and their inclusion should greatly improve the base numbers and the validity of her report. The level of confidence in the key indicators would increase as more data was included, and help to highlight which blood tests would be the best possible indicators of the pathogen.
Within an hour, the algorithm was running again. Each new upload took a little longer as the number of data files increased. She thought that by 11 a.m. she should see some new results, and that would give her time to put the finishing touches to her report by noon.
Though her current findings were couched with seemingly endless possibilities, she thought that she was zoning in on maybe five or six tests that could be used as indicators, but the disadvantage of a test panel like this was that it didn’t actually measure the bacteria, virus or germ that was causing the disease, only the effect on the body’s blood. But at the moment, this was all she had, and although it would never be 100% accurate, it was 100% better than the nothing they had at this precise moment.
She emailed her initial thoughts to Dr. Shah for consideration, and by 10:30 a.m. he had replied, explaining that one of the tests she had suggested was heat sensitive and difficult to run, and could result in errors. However, the other five were sound, and he thought she might be on to something. As Katie scanned her email, she made a note that the temperature sensitive test was not one of the four tests that were in
common with her longevity project, so those tests could possibly play a major role in researching how and where this disease started. There was some hope, but she would have to dig much deeper.
At 11:04 a.m. on the dot the results of her latest run emerged and were consistent with the previous runs, and she was now convinced that the tests she had previously suggested may indeed prove to be key indicators. But was she ready to make a bold recommendation? Was she ready to test living humans that may have been exposed to this pathogen? She had to be bold. She had the data to back her up, so she took the plunge and at the end of her report, she recommended testing a sample of twenty-five people who may have already been exposed. If the results showed that they were out of normal range for the key indicators, then the sample group could be extended. She didn’t mention that she was already being tested, but she decided to let Sarah know before she sent over the report at noon.
At HHS headquarters, CDC Headquarters in Atlanta, and Washington, DC, more data was pouring in. There had been over 100,000 deaths in just one day: twelve times the normal number. The epidemic was taking its toll and people wanted answers, and the press was already lined up to find them. Journalists, photographers and camera crews were gearing themselves up for the 4 p.m. press conference that would be held by the Secretary of Health and Human Services, and everyone was holding their breath, hoping for a breakthrough.
In Geneva, the World Health Organization had just released a worldwide alert which explained the deadliness of the disease, but gave no recommendations or precautions, other than hand washing and wearing a surgical mask. They, too, were currently at a loss: all the brainpower in the world, and still it seemed that nothing could be done. But there was still hope.
In its report, the WHO estimated that at the current rate there were 2.5 million people dying per day around the globe. Most of the deaths were in the top 20% of the oldest age group in any given locality. They explained further that this meant that people in countries where people routinely live to 90 to 100 years old, most of the deaths were from people in their 80s and up. For those countries with a life expectancy in the 50s and 60s, most of the deaths would be in people in their 40s and up.
The cable news channels were running with the news story from the WHO. The press, pooling all the ingenuity of its members, had come up with the name Epigeddon -- a cross between the words ‘epidemic’ and Armageddon: guaranteed to put the fear of God in just about anyone.
Just before noon, Katie called the Director and told her that her report was on its way, explaining her findings and suggestions.
“We should run tests on an initial group of twenty-five people who may have been exposed to the illness. If there is evidence of the disease in these people, then I recommend we increase the size of the group, using military personnel. I suggest using the military, since they are dispersed around the U.S. and the world.” Katie explained. She paused for a moment before continuing. “In addition, it’s not in my report but I want you to know I had my blood drawn last night and I should have the results later today. I plan on comparing my blood work to that of the victims. I thought I would be a good test case since I worked closely with Herb and I know that is what he would have done.” There was a pause on the other end of the line.
“Good work Katie. I’m not so sure testing your own blood was a good idea, but let me know how it turns out. For now, I’m sure I don’t need to remind you that your work is to be close hold until we share it with the President. He’ll decide what can and cannot be released to the public. The Secretary will hold a press conference today at 4 p.m. I will add the preliminary results of your analysis to the report.”
“I thought the President was handling the communications for this crisis? What changed?” asked Katie.
“I don’t know. But I do know that we have to support the President and the Secretary at this point,” said Sarah.
“I didn’t mean to question,” Katie replied. “It just seems a little strange, that’s all. Anyway, I do have one more thing to share with you. The algorithm I used for comparison of the data from the lab samples was modified from my longevity project modeling. Four of the six markers I am finding in the deceased have been used in my longevity study for the past seven years. I am going to go over my data again, because I think I might find some correlation with increases in these key indicators that could help us pinpoint how long this pathogen has been around. A cursory look at a small group of the data showed that there was a slight increase in the levels of these key indicators, starting a little over five years ago. I have the data sorted by age, location and ethnicity, and looking more deeply may give us some clues to this disease. I’m only speculating at the moment, but I thought you should know.”
“Thank you for sharing that with me,” said Sarah. “Let me know what you find. And, don’t hesitate to call, no matter what the hour. Thank you for your work. I will send you an encrypted copy of the report we plan to send to the President for your review in about 30 minutes. Please let me know if I’ve captured what is in your report accurately. I need to forward the report to the NSA and Secretary by one this afternoon.”
“Will do,” said Katie.
The afternoon passed slowly as Katie waited for her blood test results. She continued to input new data and run the algorithm. Each new result confirmed her initial findings. She was ever more certain she had stumbled upon the correct mix of lab tests to use.
She read through the latest WHO statement and found it interesting that they were focusing on age, and making no mention of younger, infirm victims. Perhaps they thought those numbers were too low to register on the radar of this huge epidemic. Katie knew a lot about aging, but not that much about disease. Most of the people she studied had died of cancer, heart disease or just plain old age. She wondered why this disease would only kill the old, and not target everyone equally. I will have to pose this question to Dr. Shah,” she thought. Maybe he would have a logical explanation based on what they were seeing in the autopsies.
A few minutes later Katie hit the send button on an email to Dr. Shah, asking if he had any thoughts on why, based on the information they were getting from autopsies, that the elderly, in particular, seemed to be at the most risk. She was glad that their network automatically encrypted all emails that were sent, as she didn’t have to worry about someone else looking at her data or reading her thoughts. She wondered what response she would get from Dr. Shah.
It was now 3:30 p.m. A new email popped up on her screen with the subject line ‘Here are your blood test results’. A brief moment of excitement switched to anxiety within milliseconds. She had been waiting for these results all day but had not really thought about the consequences. What if her results were abnormal for the key tests? Did this mean she had the disease? If so, why was she still alive? She didn’t need to run her results through the algorithm, she knew exactly what she was looking for. She located the six tests and compared them to the normal range. They were all out of normal. Her heart dropped. Then she compared her numbers to those of the victims, and her results fell right in the middle of their numbers.
She stared at the numbers, searching in vain for an explanation, but there was none. She was infected. She felt panic rising inside her. She picked up the phone and called Rob. She didn’t want to worry him, but she was worried she may have infected her family.
“Hi honey. I have to work late tonight. How about you bringing the kids up here and we can catch dinner together at the Olive Garden. I also want to use you guys in a test I am running. It will require a blood sample from all of you. What do you think? I can get it drawn at the lab here.”
“I think the blood test is why you want us to come and the dinner is an afterthought,” said Rob. “Is there something wrong?”
“I can’t talk about it over the phone,” Katie replied. “Please meet me with the kids at seven tonight, okay. This is important to me.”
“Sure, we’ll be there. I’ll call when we arrive and you can meet
us in the parking lot and show us to the lab. How does that sound?”
“That works. Thank you so very much sweetheart. See you soon,” said Katie as she hung up.
CHAPTER 14
Katie sat for a while, wondering if maybe she would be the only one of her family to have the markers. That would be good. But then she realized if that was the case, she would have to isolate herself from them to keep them safe. And that she was going to die. The thought winded her, and she started to sob, trying to catch her breath. She was going to die. She didn’t know when. But she thought it would be soon.
An email from Dr. Shah popped onto her screen, and she breathed deeply, trying to calm herself as she opened the message, curious to know what the doctor’s thoughts were regarding the relevance of age in this disease.
Hi Katie,
These are important questions you have asked and I have been pondering these same questions myself. This material is not ready for prime time, but this is what I am starting to think. It is really very simple, though complex. It appears that all of the victims we have examined died of one form or other of an old age-related death. This brings to mind the question, if the deaths were “normal” then why so many, so quick? I can’t prove it now, but my hypothesis is that this disease we are chasing is accelerating the process of death. That is why it is affecting the elderly for the most part first. Of the younger people who have died, I’ll bet mostly they had a pre-existing condition that would have shortened their life on its own. With this disease they are just approaching their end faster now. How fast you might ask? It will take some time to figure that out. You may be able to help in that area since you are familiar with the aging data. As I said, this is not yet ready for prime time so please don’t share with anyone.
The Perfect Pathogen Page 8