by Vivek Kaul
718 Balani, 2013.
719 Ibid.
720 Rajya Sabha Unstarred Question No. 2530, answered by the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution on August 1, 2014.
721 S Saini and A Gulati, ‘The National Food Security Act (NFSA) 2013—Challenges, Buffer Stocking and the Way Forward’, ICRIER Working Paper 297, March 2015.
722 Ibid.
723 R Khera, ‘Trends in Diversion of Grain from the PDS’, Economic & Political Weekly, May 21, 2011.
724 Ibid.
725 Ibid.
726 A Gulati, J Gujral, T Nandakumar, S Jain, S Anand, S Rath and P Joshi, National Food Security Bill—Challenges and Options, Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices, December 2012.
727 J Drèze and R Khera, ‘Understanding Leakages in the PDS’, Economic & Political Weekly, February 2015.
728 Ibid.
729 Lok Sabha Unstarred Question Number No. 256, answered by Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution, February 26, 2013.
730 Drèze & Khera, 2015.
731 A Gulati and S Saini, ‘Leakages from PDS and the Way Forward’, ICRIER Working Paper 294, January 2015.
732 Ibid.
733 Ibid.
734 Ibid
735 Ibid.
736 Saini & Kozicka, 2014.
737 VP Sharma and H Vardhan, Assessment of Marketed and Marketable Surplus of Major Foodgrains in India, Final Report, Centre for Management in Agriculture, IIM Ahmedabad, April 2015.
738 A Gulati and S Saini, ‘Buffer Stocking Policy in the wake of NFSB: Concepts, Empirics and Policy Implications’, CACP Discussion Paper No. 6, May 2013.
739 V Kaul, ‘Right to food security will make things more difficult for the salaried middle class’, Firstpost, March 20, 2013.
740 Gulati & Saini, May 2013.
741 VP Sharma, ‘Food Subsidy in India: Trends, Causes and Policy Reform Options’, IIM Ahmedabad Working Paper, August 2012.
742 Ibid.
743 Z Haq, ‘Deep in the red: Debt-ridden Food Corporation of India faces a reckoning’, The Hindustan Times, August 5, 2016.
744 Saini & Kozicka, 2014.
745 Report of the High Level Committee on Reinventing the Role and Restructuring of the Food Corporation of India, January 2015.
746 A Walia and J Sharma, ‘Free power, the bane of farming in Punjab’, The Hindu Business Line, August 15, 2015.
747 Report of the High Level Committee on Reinventing the Role and Restructuring of the Food Corporation of India, January 2015.
748 Economic Survey of 2015-2016.
749 Agricultural Statistics at a Glance, 2014.
750 Ibid.
751 Ibid.
752 Agricultural Statistics at a Glance, 2014; and Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices, Price Policy for Kharif Crops— The Marketing Season for 2016-17.
753 Ibid.
754 Commodity Profile of Pulses, July 2016.
755 Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices, Price Policy for Kharif Crops—The Marketing Season for 2016-17.
756 Ibid.
757 Data taken from the NAFED website.
758 Lok Sabha Unstarred Question No. 290, answered by the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution on July 19, 2016.
759 Ibid.; and Lok Sabha Unstarred Question No. 2747, answered by the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution on August 2, 2016.
760 A Gulati and S Saini, ‘Bad cure for a racing pulse’, The Indian Express, October 23, 2015.
761 Third Advanced Estimate of 2015-2016.
762 Economic Survey of 2015-2016.
763 A Gulati and S Saini, ‘The dal-bhat conundrum’, The Financial Express, June 18, 2015.
764 A Gulati and P Banerjee, ‘Rationalising the Fertilizer Subsidy in India—Key Issues and Policy Options’, ICRIER Working Paper 307, August 2015.
765 Ibid.
766 Express News Service, ‘Fertilizer subsidy dues may cross Rs. 45k cr. by March 2016’, The Indian Express, December 2, 2015.
767 Gulati & Banerjee, 2015.
768 Economic Survey of 2015-2016.
769 Ibid.
770 Gulati & Banerjee, 2015.
771 F Hayek, ‘The Use of Knowledge in Society’, The American Economic Review, Vol. 35, No. 4 (Sep. 1945), pp. 519-530.
772 M Ridley, The Evolution of Everything—How New Ideas Emerge, Harper Collins, 2015.
773 Economic Survey of 2015-2016.
774 Express News Service, ‘CBI Files Case Against 3 for Black Marketing of Urea’, March 23, 2016.
775 Economic Survey of 2015-2016.
776 CMIE Data.
777 Economic Survey of 2015-2016.
778 Calculation done on the basis of consumption data taken from Indian Fertilizer Scenario, 2014.
779 Gulati & Banerjee, 2015.
780 Calculation done on the basis of consumption data taken from Indian Fertilizer Scenario, 2014.
781 Ibid.
782 Gulati & Banerjee, 2015.
783 Report of the Working Committee of the Fertilizer Industry for the Twelfth Plan.
784 Gulati & Banerjee, 2015.
785 Economic Survey of 2015-2016.
786 Lok Sabha Unstarred Question No. 3772, answered by the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers on August 9, 2016.
787 Lok Sabha Unstarred Question No. 1580, answered by the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers on May 3, 2016.
788 K Datta, ‘Neem-coated truth: Urea policy isn’t a game-changer’, Business Standard, February 16, 2016.
789 Lok Sabha Unstarred Question No. 1580, answered by the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers on May 3, 2016.
790 Datta, 2016.
791 Lok Sabha Unstarred Question No. 2575, answered by the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers on August 2, 2016.
792 Ibid.
793 Datta, 2016.
794 Gulati & Banerjee, 2015.
795 Ibid.
796 As quoted in R Bergman, Utopia for Realists—The Case For a Universal Basic Income, Open Borders and a 15-Hour Workweek, The Correspondent, 2016.
797 Ibid.
798 Ibid.
799 Gulati & Banerjee, 2015.
800 Economic Survey of 2015-2016.
801 Press Trust of India, ‘Government strikes out 1.6 crore bogus ration cards, to save Rs. 10,000 crore’, June 26, 2016.
802 GC Prasad, ‘CAG warns on LPG usage practices of commercial users’, Mint, August 13, 2016.
803 Ibid.
804 Economic Survey of 2015-2016.
805 Ibid.
806 Press Information Bureau, ‘DBT in Kerosene to be implemented in 39 districts during 2016-17’, August 1, 2016.
807 Ibid.
808 Seetha, ‘Modi’s DBT Review 1: Chandigarh Stumbles but Project Needs Support’, Swarajyamag.com, May 2, 2016. Available at http://swarajyamag.com/economyarbitrary-inclusions-and-exclusions-make-it-a-rough-ride-for-cashtransfers-pilot-in-chandigarh. Accessed on August 13, 2016.
809 Ibid.
810 Ibid.
811 Seetha, ‘DBT in Food: Quality of Grain, Quantity of Cash is the Key — Part II’, Swarajyamag.com, August 9, 2016. Available at http://swarajyamag.com/economy/dbt-in-food-quality-of-grain-quantity-of-cash-is-the-key-part-ii. Accessed on August 13, 2016.
812 Seetha, ‘DBT in Food: Puducherry Residents give Guarded Welcome’, Swarajyamag.com, August 8, 2016. Available at http://swarajyamag.com/economy/dbt-in-food-puducherry-residents-give-guarded-welcome. Accessed on August 13, 2016.
813 Seetha, August 9, 2016.
814 Seetha, August 8, 2016.
815 Ibid.
816 Seetha, August 9, 2016.
817 Express News Service, ‘Aadhaar seeding must for paddy procurement’, August 12, 2016.
818 Ibid.
819 Data accessed from http://www.pmjdy.gov.in/account.
820 Economic Survey of 2015-2016.
821 Gulati & Banerjee, 2015.
13. The Right to Work?
822 J Drèze, ‘Employment Guarantee and the Right to Work’, in The Oxford Companion to Politics in India, Oxford University Press, 2011.
823 Ibid.
824 Ministry for Rural Development and National Institute of Rural Development and Panchayati Raj, Frequently Asked Questions on MGNREGA Operational Guidelines, 2013.
825 www.nrega.nic.in.
826 Frequently Asked Questions on MGNREGA Operational Guidelines, 2013.
827 Drèze, 2011.
828 P Niehaus and S Sukhtankar, ‘Corruption Dynamics: The Golden Goose Effect’, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, November 2013.
829 Frequently Asked Questions on MGNREGA Operational Guidelines, 2013.
830 Ibid.
831 Ibid.
832 Ibid.
833 Ibid.
834 Niehaus & Sukhtankar, November 2013.
835 Frequently Asked Questions on MGNREGA Operational Guidelines, 2013.
836 Ibid.
837 Ibid.
838 Ibid.
839 Ibid.
840 Drèze, 2011.
841 Ibid.
842 Frequently Asked Questions on MGNREGA Operational Guidelines, 2013.
843 Ibid.
844 D Kapur, ‘The Political Economy of the State’, in The Oxford Companion to Politics in India, Oxford University Press, 2011.
845 S Sukhtankar and M Vaishnav, Corruption in India: Bridging Research Evidence and Policy Options, Brookings-NCAER India Policy Forum, 2014.
846 Kapur, 2011.
847 S Bhalla, ‘MGNREGA does not help the poor’, The Indian Express, February 6, 2016.
848 Ibid.
849 Ibid.
850 Niehaus & Sukhtankar, November 2013.
851 K Muralidharan, P Niehaus and S Sukhtankar, ‘Building State Capacity: Evidence from Biometric Smartcards in India’, (forthcoming) American Economic Review.
852 Niehaus & Sukhtankar, November 2013.
853 P Niehaus and S Sukhtankar, ‘The Marginal Rate of Corruption in Public Programs: Evidence from India’, Journal of Public Economics, August 2013.
854 Ibid.
855 A Aggarwal, ‘The MGNREGA Crisis—Insights from Jharkhand’, Economic & Political Weekly, May 28, 2016.
856 Ibid.
857 Ibid.
858 Ibid.
859 Ibid.
860 Ibid.
861 NC Narayanan and N Lokhande, ‘Designed to Falter—MGNREGA Implementation in Maharashtra’, Economic & Political Weekly, June 29, 2013.
862 Ibid.
863 Ibid.
864 Ibid.
865 Ibid.
866 Ibid.
867 TH Chowdhary, ‘NREGA is money down the drain’, The Hindu Business Line, December 23, 2011.
868 Ibid.
869 Niehaus & Sukhtankar, August 2013.
870 Ibid.
871 Niehaus & Sukhtankar, November 2013.
872 Niehaus & Sukhtankar, August 2013.
873 Ibid.
874 Niehaus & Sukhtankar, November 2013.
875 Niehaus & Sukhtankar, August 2013.
876 Niehaus & Sukhtankar, November 2013.
877 Niehaus & Sukhtankar, August 2013.
878 Economic Survey of 2015-2016.
879 Aggarwal, 2016.
880 Ibid.
881 M Ravallion, D van de Walle, P Dutta and R Murgai, ‘Try Telling People Their Rights? On Making India’s Largest Antipoverty Program in India’s Poorest State’, Mimeo, World Bank, 2013.
882 Sukhtankar & Vaishnav, 2014.
883 Ravallion et al., 2013.
884 Ibid.
885 Ibid.
886 Ibid.
887 Sukhtankar & Vaishnav, 2014.
888 Ravallion et al., 2013.
889 Ibid.
890 K Ranaware, U Das, A Kulkarni and S Narayanan, ‘MGNREGA Works and Their Impacts—A Study of Maharashtra’, Economic & Political Weekly, March 28, 2015.
891 Ibid.
892 A Bhaskar and P Yadav, ‘All’s Well That Ends in a Well—An Economic Evaluation of MGNREGA Wells in Jharkhand’, Institute for Human Development, 2015.
893 Ibid.
894 Ibid.
895 Report of the Comptroller and Auditor General of India on the Performance Audit of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, 2013.
896 Aggarwal, 2016; and Ministry of Rural Development, MGNREGA 2005: Performance, Initiatives and Strategies (FY 15-16 & FY 16-17).
897 100 Days under MGNREGA: Reality or Myth?, Macrotrack, National Council for Applied Economic Research, January 2014.
898 Ministry of Rural Development, MGNREGA 2005: Performance, Initiatives and Strategies (FY 15-16 & FY 16-17).
899 Ibid.
900 Report of the Comptroller and Auditor General of India on the Performance Audit of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, 2013.
901 Ministry of Rural Development, MGNREGA 2005: Performance, Initiatives and Strategies (FY 15-16 & FY 16-17).
902 Press Trust of India, ‘Revised MGNREGA wages put States in a quandary’, April 3, 2016.
903 Aggarwal, 2016.
904 Ministry of Rural Development, MGNREGA 2005: Performance, Initiatives and Strategies (FY 15-16 & FY 16-17).
905 Muralidharan et al., (forthcoming) American Economic Review.
906 Ibid.
907 Ibid.
908 Ibid.
909 Ibid.
910 Ibid.
911 Ibid.
912 Aggarwal, 2016.
913 Ibid.
914 Ibid.
14. Conclusion: Of Gray Rhinos, and Not Black Swans
915 S Baru, 1991—How P.V. Narasimha Rao Made History, Aleph, 2016.
916 NN Taleb, The Black Swan—The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Random House, 2007.
917 Ibid.
918 M Wucker, The Gray Rhino—How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore, St. Martin’s Press, 2016.
919 Press Trust of India, ‘India has the potential to take the GDP to double digits: F.M. Arun Jaitley’, May 30, 2015.
920 Press Trust of India, ‘India has the potential to grow at 10%: Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’, April 16, 2015.
921 Ibid.
922 The Hindu, ‘Double-digit growth difficult to achieve, says Arun Jaitley’, March 17, 2016.
923 Press Trust of India, ‘Indian economy will more than double to $5 trillion in few years: Arun Jaitley’, June 3, 2016.
924 Ibid.
925 V Joshi, India’s Long Road—The Search for Prosperity, Penguin & Allen Lane, 2016.
926 Ibid.
927 Ibid.
928 V Pathak, ‘Our full report on education has not been published’, The Hindu, August 26, 2016.
929 G Kingdon, ‘Elephant in the room: A New Educational Policy that doesn’t tackle teacher accountability won’t go anywhere’, The Times of India, August 26, 2016.
930 Joshi, 2016.
931 Kingdon, August 2016.
932 Ibid.
933 S Sukhtankar and M Vaishnav, Corruption in India: Bridging Research Evidence and Policy Options, Brookings-NCAER India Policy Forum, 2014.
934 Ibid.
935 Ibid.
936 Ibid.
937 Joshi, 2016.
938 Some Inputs for the Draft National Education Policy, 2016.
939 Ibid.
940 Data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy.
941 Ibid.
942 Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA), Press Information Bureau Release, ‘Backgrounder: Initiatives to Revive the Construction Sector’, August 31, 2016.
943 D Joshi and V Mahambare, HIRE & LOWER—Slowdown compounds India’s job-creation challenge, CRISIL Research, January 2014.
944 Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA), ‘Cabinet Approves Initiatives to Revive the Construction Sector’, August 31, 2016.
945 Department of Land Resources, Ministry of Rural Development, Success Stories on the National Land Records Modernisation
Programme.
946 CCEA, ‘Backgrounder: Initiatives to Revive the Construction Sector’, August 31, 2016.
947 Ibid.
948 CCEA, ‘Cabinet Approves Initiatives to Revive the Construction Sector’, August 31, 2016.
949 G Das, India Grows at Night—A Liberal Case for a Strong State, Penguin, 2012.
950 The Financial Express, ‘Construction arbitration: Narendra Modi govt makes massive move; check out what’, September 3, 2016.
951 PRS Legislative Research, Railways Budget 2016-17: Detailed Analysis.
952 G Raghuraman, ‘An Overview of the Trucking Sector in India: Significance and Structure’, IIM Ahmedabad Working Paper, December 2015.
953 P Mehra, ‘PMO nod for closure of sick govt. companies’, The Hindu, September 21, 2016.
954 Ibid.
955 Baru, 2016.
956 Ibid.
957 P Svedberg, ‘Reforming or Replacing the Public Distribution System with Cash Transfers?’, Economic & Political Weekly, February 18, 2012.
958 SEWA Bharat, A Little More, How Much It is… Piloting Basic Income Transfers in Madhya Pradesh, India, January 2014.
959 Ibid.
960 Svedberg, 2012.
961 M Ghatak, C Kumar and S Mitra, ‘Cash versus Kind—Understanding the Preferences of the Bicycle Programme Beneficiaries in Bihar’, Economic & Political Weekly, March 12, 2016.
962 K Muralidharan and N Prakash, ‘Cycling to School: Increasing Secondary School Enrolment for Girls in India’, NBER Working Paper No. 19305, August 2013.
963 Ghatak et al., 2016.
964 Ibid.
965 Ibid.
966 Ibid.
967 Ibid.
968 Ibid.
969 D Kapur, ‘The Shift to Cash Transfers: Running Better but on the Wrong Road?’, Economic & Political Weekly, May 21, 2011.
970 Economic Survey of 2015-2016.
971 D Sinha, ‘Cash for Food—A Misplaced Idea’, Economic & Political Weekly, April 18, 2015.
972 Ibid.
973 Ibid.
974 Ibid.
975 Ghatak et al., 2016.
976 F Bastagli, ‘Conditional Cash Transfers as a Tool of Social Policy’, Economic & Political Weekly, May 21, 2011.
977 D Kapur and P Nangia, ‘Social Protection in India: A Welfare State sans Public Goods’, India Review, 2015.
978 I Rajaraman, ‘The Entitlement State’, Business Standard, February 11, 2013.
979 Kapur & Nangia, 2015.
980 Ibid.
981 The Economic Times, ‘Moderate success on black money front’, October 3, 2016.
982 India Abroad News Service, ‘How has the latest black money scheme fared?’, October 1, 2016.