by Vali Nasr
6. Dale Copeland, “Economic Interdependence and the Future of U.S.-China Relations,” in G. John Ikenberry and Michael Mastaduno, eds., International Relations Theory and the Asia-Pacific (New York: Columbia University Press, 2003), pp. 323–52.
7. Henry M. Kissinger, “The Future of U.S.-Chinese Relations: Conflict Is a Choice, Not a Necessity,” Foreign Affairs, March/April 2012, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137245/henry-a-kissinger/the-future-of-us-chinese-relations.
8. David Smith, “Hillary Clinton Launches African Tour with Veiled Attack on China,” Guardian, August 1, 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/aug/01/hillary-clinton-africa-china.
9. Aaron Friedberg, A Contest for Supremacy: China, America, and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia (New York: Norton, 2011).
10. Arvind Subramanian, Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China’s Economic Dominance (Washington, DC: Institute of International Economics, 2012); Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order, 2nd ed. (New York: Penguin Press, 2012).
11. Zachary Karabell, Superfusion: How China and America Became One Economy and Why the World’s Prosperity Depends on It (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2009); Robyn Meredith, The Elephant and the Dragon: The Rise of India and China and What It Means for All of Us (New York: Norton, 2007); Nicholas Lardy, Sustaining China’s Economic Growth After the Global Financial Crisis (Washington, DC: Peterson Institute, 2012).
12. Kathrin Hille, “Clinton Struggles to Soothe Beijing’s Fears,” Financial Times, September 5, 2012, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9b296eec-f728-11e1-8e9e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz25abzfG2p.
13. Andrew J. Nathan and Andrew Scobell, “How China Sees America,” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2012, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/138009/andrew-j-nathan-and-andrew-scobell/how-china-sees-america?page=show; Robert Ross, “The Problem with the Pivot,” Foreign Affairs, November/December 2012, pp. 70–82.
14. Thom Shanker, “Panetta Set to Discuss U.S. Shift in Asia Trip,” New York Times, September 14, 2012, p. A4.
15. Kissinger, “Future of U.S.-Chinese Relations.”
16. Henry M. Kissinger, On China (New York: Penguin Press, 2012), pp. 487–530; Zbigniew Brzezinski, Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power (New York: Basic Books, 2012), pp. 155–82.
17. Daniel Yergin, The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Making of the Modern World (New York: Penguin Press, 2011), p. 222.
18. Rebecca M. Nelson, Mary Jane Bolle, and Shayerah Ilias, U.S. Trade and Investment in the Middle East and North Africa: Overview and Issues for Congress, Congressional Research Service report, January 20, 2012, http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/183739.pdf.
19. Direction of Trade Statistics Yearbook, 2011 (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 2011), http://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF042/11827-9781616351489/11827-9781616351489/11827-9781616351489.xml?rskey=J2QZQv&result=1&q=Direction%20of%20Trade%20Statistics%20Yearbook,%202011.
20. Qian Xuewen, “Sino-Arab Economic Trade and Cooperation: Situations, Tasks, Issues, and Strategies,” Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies 5, no. 4 (2011): 68.
21. Kissinger, “Future of U.S.-Chinese Relations.”
22. Bernard Gordon, “Trading Up in Asia,” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2012, www.foreignaffairs.com/print/134960.
23. Jane Perlez, “Clinton Makes Effort to Rechannel the Rivalry with China,” New York Times, July 8, 2012, p. A7.
24. Joseph Nye, “Energy Independence in an Interdependent World,” Project Syndicate, July 11, 2012, http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/energy-independence-in-an-interdependent-world.
25. “China to Build $2bn Railway for Iran,” Telegraph, September 7, 2010, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/7985812/China-to-build-2bn-railway-for-Iran.html.
26. Myles Smith, “China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway Project Brings Political Risks,” Central Asia Institute Analyst, Johns Hopkins University, March 7, 2012, http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/5731.
27. “Turkey, China Sign Two Nuclear Agreements During PM’s Visit,” Daily Hurriyet, April 10, 2012, http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-china-sign-two-nuclear-agreements-during-pms-visit.aspx?pageID=238&nID=18032&NewsCatID=348. This article puts the 2010 trade figures at $19.5 billion; TUSIAD in Beijing puts the 2012 figures at $25 billion.
28. Interviews with oil executives investing in Iraq, and with Turkish Kurdish Regional Government officials, August and September 2012.
29. Kent Calder, The New Continentalism: Energy and Twenty-First Century Eurasian Geopolitics (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2012), pp. xxxi–xxxii.
30. Yergin, Quest, p. 210.
31. James Fallows, China Airborne (New York: Pantheon, 2012), p. 98.
32. Yergin, Quest, p. 172.
33. Robert Kaplan, “Center Stage for the 21st Century: Power Plays in the Indian Ocean,” Foreign Affairs, April/May 2009, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/print/64832.
34. Preparing for China’s Urban Billion (San Francisco: McKinsey Global Institute, 2009), p. 18, cited in Fallows, China Airborne, p. 101.
35. John Lee, “China’s Geostrategic Search for Oil,” Washington Quarterly 35, no. 3 (Summer 2012): 75–92.
36. Steve Coll, Private Empire: ExxonMobil and American Power (New York: Penguin Press, 2012), p. 240.
37. Ibid., pp. 240–41.
38. Yergin, Quest, pp. 222–23.
39. Kalder, The New Continentalism, p. 3.
40. John Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: Norton, 2001), pp. 360–402.
41. Coll, Private Empire, p. 243.
42. Robert Kaplan, Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power (New York: Random House, 2010).
43. Kalder, New Continentalism, p. 36.
44. Farhan Bokhari and Kathrin Hille, “Pakistan in Talks to Hand Port to China,” Financial Times, August 31, 2012, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5c58608c-f2a6-11e1-ac41-00144feabdc0.html#axzz25gV7a6Qn.
45. Kalder, New Continentalism, pp. xxxi–xxxiii.
46. Robert Kaplan, “The Geography of Chinese Power,” Foreign Affairs, May/June, 2010, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66205/robert-d-kaplan/the-geography-of-chinese-power?page=4.
47. Kalder, New Continentalism, p. 8.
48. Susan Shirk, China: Fragile Superpower (New York: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 257–58.
49. Kalder, New Continentalism, p. 23.
50. Tony Smith, The Pattern of Imperialism: The United States, Great Britain, and the Late-Industrializing World Since 1815 (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1981).
51. Coll, Private Empire, p. 241.
52. Kissinger, On China, pp. 513–30.
53. See Arthur S. Herman, To Rule the Waves: How the British Navy Shaped the Modern World (New York: HarperCollins, 2004).
54. Dambisa Mayo, Winner Takes All: China’s Race for Resources and What It Means for the World (New York: Basic Books, 2012).
55. Debora Brautigam, The Dragon’s Gift: The Real Story of China in Africa (New York: Oxford University Press, 2010).
56. Vali Nasr, “International Politics, Domestic Imperatives, and the Rise of Politics of Identity: Sectarianism in Pakistan, 1979–1997,” Comparative Politics 32, no. 2 (January 2000): 171–90; Vali Nasr, “The Rise of Sunni Militancy in Pakistan: The Changing Role of Islamism and the Ulama in Society and Politics,” Modern Asian Studies 34, no. 1 (January 2000): 139–80.
57. Vali Nasr, The Shia Revival: How Conflicts Within Islam Will Shape the Future (New York: Norton, 2006), pp. 147–68.
58. James Lamont and Farhan Bokhari, “China-Pakistan Military Links Upset India,” Financial Times, November 27, 2009, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9d5497f0-db8d-11de-9424-00144feabdc0.html.
59. Ibid.
60. “Pakistan, China Have Shared Interests in Peace Promotion: PM,” Nation, May 15, 2012, http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/islamabad/15
-May-2012/pakistan-china-have-shared-interests-in-peace-promotion-pm.
61. Dennis Kux, The United States and Pakistan, 1947–2000: Disenchanted Allies (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2001).
62. Harsh V. Pant, “The Pakistan Thorn in China-India-U.S. Relations,” Washington Quarterly 35, no. 1 (Winter 2012): 83.
63. John W. Garver, “Sino-Indian Rapprochement and the Sino-Pakistan Entente,” Political Science Quarterly 111, no. 2 (Summer 1996): 326–33.
64. Pant, “Pakistan Thorn,” p. 86.
65. Ibid., p. 85.
66. R. Jeffrey Smith and Joby Warrick, “Pakistani Nuclear Scientist Accounts Tell of Chinese Proliferation,” Washington Post, November 13, 2009, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/12/AR2009111211060.html.
67. Kaplan, “Center Stage for the 21st Century.”
68. Ibid.
69. John W. Garver, China and Iran: Ancient Partners in a Post-Imperial World (Seattle: University of Washington, 2006).
70. Scott Harold and Alireza Nader, China and Iran: Economic, Political, and Military Relations (Washington, DC: RAND Corporation, 2012).
71. John Garver, Flynt Leverett, and Hillary Mann Leverett, Moving (Slightly) Closer to Iran: China’s Shifting Calculus for Managing Its “Persian Gulf Dilemma” (Washington, DC: Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, 2009).
72. John Garver, “Is China Playing a Dual Game with Iran?” Washington Quarterly 34, no. 1 (Winter 2011): 75–88; “The Iran Nuclear Issue: The View from Beijing,” Asia Briefing no. 100 (overview), International Crisis Group, February 17, 2010, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/north-east-asia/china/B100-the-iran-nuclear-issue-the-view-from-beijing.aspx.
73. Fallows, China Airborne, p. 190.
74. James Mann, The Obamians: The Struggle Inside the White House to Redefine American Power (New York: Viking, 2012), pp. 246–47.
CONCLUSION: AMERICA, THE PIVOTAL NATION
1. Gideon Rachman, Zero-Sum Future: American Power in an Age of Anxiety (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2011); Thomas L. Friedman and Michael Mandelbaum, That Used to Be Us: How America Fell Behind in the World It Invented and How We Can Come Back (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011); Edward Luce, Time to Start Thinking: America in the Age of Descent (New York: Atlantic Monthly Press, 2012); Robert J. Lieber, Power and Willpower in the American Future (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2012).
2. Roger C. Altman and Richard N. Haass, “American Profligacy and American Power: The Consequences of Fiscal Irresponsibility,” Foreign Affairs, November/December 2010, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66778/roger-c-altman-and-richard-n-haass/american-profligacy-and-american-power. Brzezinski argues that restoring America’s position in the world must start with putting its economic house in order. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power (New York: Basic Books, 2012), pp. 37–74.
3. Fareed Zakaria, The Post-American World, Release 2.0 (New York: Norton, 2011); Charles A. Kupchan, No One’s World: The West, the Rising Rest, and the Coming Global Turn (New York: Oxford University Press, 2012).
4. Joseph Nye, The Future of Power (New York: Public Affairs, 2011).
5. Leslie H. Gelb provides an instructive examination of this issue in Power Rules: How Common Sense Can Rescue American Foreign Policy (New York: Harper, 2009).
6. Robert Kagan, “Not Fade Away: The Myth of American Decline,” New Republic, January 11, 2012, http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/magazine/99521/america-world-power-declinism.
7. “Fact Sheet: ‘A Moment of Opportunity’ in the Middle East and North Africa,” press release, May 19, 2011, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/05/19/fact-sheet-moment-opportunity-middle-east-and-north-africa.
8. Hassan Bin Talal, “U.S. Can’t Abandon the Middle East,” Los Angeles Times, April 17, 2012, http://articles.latimes.com/2012/apr/17/opinion/la-oe-hassan-middle-east-engagement-20120417.
9. Vali Nasr, Forces of Fortune: The Rise of the New Muslim Middle Class and What It Will Mean for Our World (New York: Free Press, 2009), pp. 252–63.
10. Brzezinski, Strategic Vision, p. 190.
11. G. John Ikenberry, Liberal Leviathan: The Origins, Crisis, and Transformation of the American World Order (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2011).
12. Robert O. Keohane, “Hegemony and After,” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2012, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137690/robert-o-keohane/hegemony-and-after.
13. G. John Ikenberry, “The Future of the Liberal World Order,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2011, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67730/g-john-ikenberry/the-future-of-the-liberal-world-order.
About the Author
Vali Nasr is dean of the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University and the bestselling author of The Shia Revival and Forces of Fortune. From 2009 to 2011, he served as senior adviser to Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan. He is a nonresident fellow at the Brookings Institution and a contributor to Bloomberg View; he lives in Washington, D.C.
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Also by Vali Nasr
Forces of Fortune: The Rise of the New Muslim Middle Class and What It Will Mean for Our World
The Shia Revival: How Conflicts Within Islam Will Shape the Future
Democracy in Iran: History and the Quest for Liberty (with Ali Gheissari)
Islamic Leviathan: Islam and the Making of State Power
Mawdudi and the Making of Islamic Revivalism
The Vanguard of the Islamic Revolution: The Jama’at-i Islami of Pakistan